Stephen Strasburg and Scott Boras Seek the Big $$$
The best player in the 2009 amateur draft, if you haven’t already heard, is Stephen Strasburg, a San Diego State right hander with a 102 mph fastball. He is being described, probably mostly by his agent Scott Boras, as the best amateur player of the decade. According to Jon Heyman of SI, Boras is already floating that it will take a $50M contract to sign Strasburg.
On the one hand, Boras understands that part of his job as agent is to throw out as high a number as possible, without completely destroying credibility, to set the terms of a future contract as high as possible. He may also be seeking to discourage low payroll teams from using a draft pick on Strasburg, so only one of the rich teams will draft him.
However, the $50M number is ridiculous, especially for a pitcher. Here are the three biggest amateur contracts to date in terms of guaranteed money for players who have been drafted by one team:
Mark Prior (2nd Pick in 2001 by Cubs) $10.5M
Mark Texiera (5th Pick in 2001 by Rangers) $9.5M
David Price (1st Pick in 2008 by Rays) $8.5M ($11.25M contract for 6 years)
The comparison to Mark Prior tells you all you need to know. Prior was absolutely a great prospect. Here are his numbers from his last two years of college at USC:
W L ERA IP H HR BB K
10 6 3.49 129 122 8 43 143
15 1 1.70 138 100 5 18 202
Here are Strasburg’s numbers for his two plus seasons in college (note that Strasburg has only had 6 starts this year, his junior year):
1 3 2.43 37 18 0 15 47
8 3 1.57 97.1 61 1 16 133
5 0 1.70 42.1 24 2 8 88
Over 138 innings, his current 2009 numbers project to 78 hits, 7 HRs, 26 BBs and an astounding 287 Ks. We’ll see if the numbers hold up over the course of the season as hitters see more of him.
At this stage in his career, Strasburg appears to be ahead of Prior at the same age. However, Prior tells you exactly the problem with signing an amateur pitcher to huge money. They get hurt at a very high rate.
Prior had one season (2003) where he was the best pitcher in the NL. He had three other seasons (2002, 2004, 2005) where he was a very good pitcher for 2/3’s of the season (he averaged 22.33 starts in those three seasons). In retrospect, Prior was probably worth the $10.5M in guaranteed money the Cubs gave him, but not much more. Teixeira, and position players in general, are worth much more because they are far more likely to stay healthy. Teixeira turned out to be a bargain at $9.5M.
Other great examples of record-setting bonus pitching prospects who couldn’t miss and did just that are Todd Van Poppel ($1.2M in 1990) and Brien Taylor ($1.55M in 1991). They ended up being worth even less to the team that shelled out than Prior.
Strasburg hasn’t pitched a lot in college so far, which is good. However, he is only 20 this year, and it is likely that he will be pitching regularly in the majors at some time in 2010, after taking into account his likely late signing this year. He will likely pitch a lot of innings his first few years in the majors, especially if he really is as good as the hype, and he may burn out quickly like a lot of pitchers who suck up innings before age 25.
Taking into account the current economy, I just can’t see giving him more than a guaranteed $12M and more than $20M-25M total over the 4 to 6 years of the contract, which earns year by year unless he’s not cut. No amateur pitcher is worth more than that.
I also don’t think he has as much leverage as a position player. J.D. Drew could go and play for the St. Paul Saints for a year, and not take a big risk. Strasburg could do the same, but if he blows out his arm, his chance of a big contract is gone forever.
There was an article posted recently on www.mlbtraderumors.com, another excellent baseball website, in which an attorney wrote about fundamental conflicts of interest for attorney/agent Scott Boras, mainly in representing multiple free agents who play the same position. I think Boras has an even bigger potential conflict of interest with prospects like Stephen Strasburg. If Boras can convince Strasburg to hold out as long as it takes to get the absolutely most money, including playing in an independent A league or Japan, so he can take part in the 2010 amateur draft if the drafting team won’t fork over, it will risk Strasburg hurting himself, but it will also give Boras a chance to set a new standard for amateur player contracts. Once that happens, we are certain to get these “best prospect of the decade” every couple of years and eventually every single year. This can’t help but make Boras a ton of money, since he represents an awful lot of amateur players. That’s pretty much the definition of a conflict of interest between player and attorney.
There are things I don’t like about Boras’ style that I will discuss in some later post, but I think the idea that he controls his players or tells them what to do is way overstated. Players, amateur or pro, choose Boras because he has a reputation for getting the most money that can be got. He does an excellent job, by any objective standard, of getting them top dollar. I don’t really doubt that if a player tells Boras he doesn’t want to hold out and wants to get his professional career going ASAP, Boras will do what the player wants. What it comes down to is that those players don’t choose Boras to represent them in the first place.
