Heads Up, Giants Fans

I’ve written several posts about the prospects playing well in the Giants farm system this year.  However, I haven’t gone any lower than Class A Augusta.

So I’ve told you about the progress (or lack thereof) of 18 year old Dominican 1Bman Angel Villalona, who strained his left quadriceps and hasn’t played since July 7 (he’s expected to miss at least four weeks), and 19 year old Venezuelan SS Ehire Adrianze, who’s slumped a bit the last ten games and is now hitting .271 at Class A Augusta.

However, I haven’t told you about a couple of other young guys playing in the low minors who you might want to keep in mind for future reference.

The first is 19 year old Jorge Bucardo, a right-hander pitching for the Salem-Kaiser Volcanoes in the short-season Northwest League.  He’s from Leon, Nicaragua, and for what it’s worth, his older brother Wilber, age 21, is also a starter for the Volcanoes.  Jorge is the real talent, however.

After eight starts, Jorge’s 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 41 Ks and only nine walks in 43.1 IP.  He pitched well in the Rookie Arizona Summer League last year, recording 51 K’s and only 15 walks in 51.1 innings over eleven starts.

The best player on the Arizona Summer League Giants this year looks to be 19 year old Venezuelan catcher Hector Sanchez.  He’s currently leading his team with a .908 OPS.

Sanchez had a terrific year in the Dominican Summer League last year at age 18.  He led the league with a .348 batting average, and his .961 OPS was good for second best in the league, only one point behind the league leader.

While we’re on the subject of ballplayers named Sanchez, you have to figure it’s only a matter of time before we get a major league Sanchez whose teammates decide to nickname him “Dirty” and the nickname catches on.  He’ll sort of be the Rusty Kuntz of his day (BTW, there was a ballplayer originally from Sacramento who played in the 1920′s known as Earl “Pinches” Kunz — I kid you not).

I, for one, wait with bated breath for that day.

Dodgers Acquire George Sherrill; Cubs Get John Grabow

Two more big trades today:

Sherrill Trade: The Dodgers obtained left-handed reliever George Sherrill in exchange for minor leaguers 3Bman Josh Bell and right-handed pitcher Steve Johnson.

For those of you who aren’t familiar with Sherrill, he’s a classic good-year-bad-year pitcher.  He’s having a good year this year with a 2.40 ERA, 20 saves in 23 opportunities, almost a strikout per inning pitched and a 3-to-1 Ks-to-walks ratio.  It’s a great trade for the Dodgers, who are obviously trying to win it all since they have the NL West all but wrapped up already.

It’s not a bad trade for the O’s either.  As usual, they’re going nowhere, and Sherrill’s already 32 years old.  And, like I said, he’s inconsistent with ERAs of 4.28, 2.36 and 4.73 the three seasons before this one.  The O’s might as well move him now while his trade value is at its peak.

What did the O’s get in return?  Josh Bell can clearly hit.  He’s got an .883 OPS in the AA Southern League at age 22.  There are some doubts about his defense at 3B, however.

Steve Johnson is originally from Baltimore, and at age 21, he’s had a fine season mostly at Inland Empire (San Bernardino) in the California League.  It’s a hitters’ league so his 3.82 ERA is better than it looks.  Mainly, though, he’s notched 102 Ks against 42 walks in 96.2 IP.  He was recently promoted to AA Chattanooga, where in two starts he posted a 1.69 ERA with 15 Ks in 10.2 IP.

Johnson’s age and his numbers remind me of Scott Barnes, the young pitcher the Giants just sent to the Indians for Ryan Garko, except that Barnes is a lefty.

Grabow Trade.  The Cubs got left-handed pitchers John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny in exchange for right-handed pitchers Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and minor league 2Bman Josh Harrison.

This was a trade the Cubs made because they were desperate for left-handed pitching.  In particular, Gorzelanny and Hart look very similar except for the fact that they throw from opposite sides.  Both are 26, and while Gorzelanny has more major league experience, he’s currently pitching well at AAA Indianapolis (2.48 ERA in 15 starts), while Hart won his third straight start for the Cubs today, before finding out he was traded.  However, Hart hasn’t pitched as well as his 2.60 major league ERA so far this year suggests.

Hart can’t be happy about this trade.  He wins his third consecutive start for a pennant contender, goes into the locker room and finds out he’s been traded to a team with no chance of winning for the foreseeable future.  That’s Baseball, and sometimes it’s cruel.

So the trade was basically Grabow for Ascanio and Harrison, with the Cubs adding organizational depth in left-handed pitching (Gorzelanny will go at least initially to AAA Iowa).   Grabow isn’t a bad left-handed relief man, although he’s been wild this year.  He’s certainly no Geroge Sherrill.

Jose Ascanio is 24 this year, and he looks ready to help the Pirates right away.  After twelve starts at AAA Iowa where he pitched well (3.16 ERA and good ratios), he was called up to the Cubs.  He has made 14 relief appearances for the Cubs in which he’s posted a 3.52 ERA with nine walks and 18 Ks in 15.1 IP.  That’s too many walks, but the strikeouts number is great.

Hard to project Josh Harrison at this point.  He’s 21 and hit .337 with an .856 OPS in the Class A Midwest League this year before recently being promoted to the Class A+ Florida State League, where he’s hitting .286 with a .751 OPS in 70 ABs.

These numbers are promising, but he hasn’t drawn a lot of walks or hit with much power this year.  Also, as someone who played three years of college ball, he’s only just reached a league where the quality of play is clearly better than college ball.  All you can really say about him it this point  in his career is that he isn’t a dog.

Brian Sabean Strikes Again

Well, so much for all of Sabean’s claims that the Giants wouldn’t trade away their future trying to win this year.  The Giants acquired 2Bman Freddie Sanchez today from the Pirates straight up for pitcher Tim Alderson, the Giants’ best pitching prospect after Madison Bumgarner and the 22nd player taken in the 2007 Draft.  Keith Law of ESPN rates Alderson as the 26th best prospect in baseball, and Baseball America ranks Alderson as the Giants’ 4th best prospect.

Alderson had struggled in his last six starts at AA Connecticut, giving up 20 earned runs in 33 IP (that’s a 5.45 ERA, boys and girls), but so what?  He’s only 20 years old this year, and he’s already has 13 AA starts under his belt.

Giving up Alderson is heavy price to pay for a team that should still be in rebuilding mode after four consecutive losing seasons.  Apparently, the Pirates didn’t even pony up any money to pay Sanchez salary.

After opting for quantity over quality in the McLouth and Wilson trades and getting little in return in the LaRoche trade, this is a brilliant trade for the Pirates.  They finally get a grade-A prospect, something they desperately need if they are going to trade off all their veteran starters.  Bad teams have bad luck, and Alderson could hurt his arm long before he reaches the majors, but for the time being it was a good move by the Pirates.

What disappoints me particularly is that earlier in the day the rumor was the Giants would send RF John Bowker, 2Bman Kevin Frandsen, and 1Bman Jesus Guzman to the Pirates for Sanchez.  While I like John Bowker, he turned 26 three weeks and he still hasn’t established himself as a major league regular.  Besides, the Giants have plenty of depth already at the positions (corner outfield, 1B) Bowker.

The Giants also have plenty of depth at 2B, and Guzman was a player the Giants picked up off the scrap heap last off-season.  He can hit, but he’s got stone hands on defense and he’s already 25.  Kevin Frandsen is already 27.

The Giants have now traded two of their top half dozen pitching prospect at the Class A+ level or higher, and a third, Ben Snyder, took a line drive off his head in yesterday’s ballgame.  If Madison Bumgarner hurts his arm and Tim Alderson turns into a star, the Giants will regret this move for years.  Unless, of course, the Giants make it past the first round of the play-offs this October.

In my mind, the Giants now have to make the play-offs, or it’s finally time to cut Sabean lose.

Big Trades

Two more big trades so far today:

The Cliff Lee Deal.  The Indians sent Lee and 27 year old right-handed hitting outfielder Ben Francisco to the Phillies for youngsters Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp.

All things considered, it looks like a better deal for the Phillies than the proposal that the Blue Jays turned down for Roy Halladay.  Mainly, the Phillies get to keep J.A. Happ, who’s pitched really well for them this year, while adding Lee.  Since this is a “win now” trade for a team already capable of doing just that, getting Lee without weakening the major league squad is great.

Lee has had a 2.37 ERA for the month of July, and given that he’s a control pitcher going to a team that can pick it and score runs, he should win a lot of games in the next two months.  As a right-handed hitter with some pop, Francisco is also a useful bench player for a team looking to go deep into the post-season.

I’ve already recently commented on Carrasco and Donald, so I won’t do it again here.  Lou Marson is a 23 year old catcher, who had a great season at AA Reading last year when he posted a .433 OBP.  He’s hit .295 with a .384 OBP at AAA Lehigh Valley this year.

Marson’s only real draw-back offensively is his lack of power so far in his professional career.  However, he’s young enough to develop power in the next few years, and a catcher who gets on base the way he does at his age has real potential.

Jason Knapp was the Phillies’ 2nd round pick in the 2008 Draft (71st overall).  He’s got a good live arm (111 Ks in 85.1 IP in the Sally League so far this year), but he’s a long way from the majors.  He’s only 2-7 with a 4.01 ERA in Class A ball this year, so it’s likely to be years before he’s ready.

Reports are that no cash will be sent to Philly to pay for the new acquisitions.  This makes sense, since the Indians, who are listed with baseball’s 15th highest payroll, while having a bad year in a small market, badly need to dump salary.

The Jack Wilson Deal.  The Pirates and Mariners swung a seven player deal that sends SS Jack Wilson and pitcher Ian Snell to the M’s in exchange for catcher Jeff Clement, shortstop Ronny Cedeno, and pitchers Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock.

Clement was the No. 3 player selected in the 2005 Draft.  However, he turns 26 on August 21st and still hasn’t established himself as a major league player.

Clement looked extremely promising in 2007 and early 2008, but his 203 AB trial with the M’s last year didn’t go as hoped.  He hit only .227 with a .655 OPS, which while not terrible for a catcher, isn’t good enough for a starter at the position.

Clement has been back at AAA Tacoma this year, and his .865 OPS there is solid, but it’s nothing to write home about either.  At his age, you’d kind of expect him to be over .900, what with playing in the Pacific Coast League and all.

26 year old Ronny Cedeno has substantial major league experience, mostly for the Cubs, but he can’t hit.  His .618 OPS in over a 1,000 MLB ABs pretty much says it all.

Pribanic is a 22 year old right-hander with a 3.21 ERA in the Class Midwest League.  However, his strikeout numbers are not impressive for this level of the minors.

Brett Lorin is another 22 year old right-hander pitching at Class A Clinton.  His ERA is 2.44, and he has 87 K’s in 88.2 IP, so he’s a lot more promising than Pribanic.

Nathan Adcock is a 21 right-hander who is currently overmatched at Class A+ High Desert in the California League.  He has a 5.29 ERA and lacks control.  He looked better last year in the Midwest League.

In short, the Pirates got five B-grade prospects for Jack Wilson and Ian Snell.  Wilson plays great defense, but he’s overpaid for the offense he provides, and the Pirates were eager to unload Snell because he wasn’t happy in Pittsburg.

Snell is pitching great after six starts in AAA Indianopolis, with an 0.96 ERA and 47 Ks in 37.1 IP.  He’s 27 this year, and it’s still really anybody’s guess whether he’ll ever have a great season at the major league level.

The Pirates seem to make a lot of trades where they choose quantity of prospects over quality, apparently in the hope that if they get a lot of warm bodies a few of them will develop in major league stars if only by the law of averages.  The problem is that the Pirates constantly seem to be in a rebuilding mode, but never quite manage to get rebuilt.

A Wild One Down on the Farm

The Giants’ AA team, the Connecticut Defenders, won a wild one against the Bowie (MD) BaySox yesterday, 13-12.

This game should be of some interest to Giants fans because Madison Bumgarner had what was likely the worst start of his professional career.  He gave up three runs, all earned, in an inning and two-thirds and was evicted by the umpire for allegedly throwing at a Bowie hitter Daniel Figueroa a couple of batters after giving up a homerun to Steve Torrealba.  However, whether the pitch was intentional is up for debate, since the pitch went past the catcher and allowed the baserunner on first to advance to second.

Another top Giants’ pitching prospect Ben Snyder came in to replace Bumgarner, and he lasted only one batter.  Figueroa hit a lined shot which ricocheted off Snyder’s head and past the Defenders’ 3Bman.  Figueroa ended up on second and was credited with a double, while Snyder left the game and went to the hospital for tests.

Early reports are that all of Snyder’s tests came back negative for serious injury.  However, one has to expect that he will miss some games until he’s really ready to play again.  It’s shame, as he was pitching great (1.98 ERA).

The Defenders came back from a 7-2 deficit and won it in the 11th inning.  The teams combined for 42 hits, 22 by the Defenders, and Bowie made six errors.

Another Giant’s Record Falls

In case you missed it, Giants’ Fans, Jim Barr’s record of retiring 41 consecutive hitters set in 1972 and later tied by White Sox reliever Bobby Jenks in 2007, was broken today by Mark Buerhle, who retired 45 consecutive batters, before the Twins’ 18th batter of the game Alexi Casilla finally broke through and drew a walk.

Six of the next eight batters reached base safely.  One of the two outs came on a sacrifice.  The Twins ended up scoring five runs off Buerhle and beat him the ball game.  Is that baseball or what?

Twins’ fans needed one like tonight’s game after learning yesterday that ace Kevin Slowey is out for the rest of the season.  The only good thing is that the surgery Slowey needs is to remove a bone chip from his wrist.  That’s a lot less serious for Slowey’s long-term future than a blown elbow tendon or torn rotator cuff.

Glenn Perkins and Francisco Liriano will have to pick it up considerably if the Twins want to make a run at the post-season, even if they do pick up another bat for their middle infield.

Giants Obtain Garko

After four consecutive losing seasons for the Giants, I’m not a big fan of GM Brian Sabean.  However, I have to admit I like this deal for the Giants.

Ryan Garko is no great shakes, but at age 28, he’s still in his prime.  He gives the Giants something the team desperately needs: a right-handed hitter who can play 1B and the corner outfield positions (Garko has played 12 games in the outfield this year) and hit with some power.  More importantly, he only cost the Giants one prospect.

Those who have read my posts on the Giants minor leaguers know that I like Scott Barnes, the pitcher the Giants just sent to the Tribe.  At this moment I would rank him as the Giants’ third best pitching prospect behind only Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson, because of his age (21) and his performance at A+ San Jose this year (Barnes is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA in a hitters’ league, with 82 hits allowed, 29 walks, and 99 Ks in 98 IP).  In fact, given his college pitching ratios at St. John’s, it’s hard to understand how he fell to the Giants all the way down to the 8th round in the 2007 Draft.

However, Barnes appears to be the only player the Indians received.  There’s been some report of a player to be named later, but other reports saying, no, it’s just Garko for Barnes straight up.  Losing Barnes hurts, but the Giants are trading from a position of strength.  Aside from Bumgarner and Alderson, they still have pitchers Kevin Pucetas at AAA Fresno, Ben Snyder at AA Connecticut, and Clayton Tanner at A+ San Jose.

Also, the thing about a pitcher at the A+ level is that he’s still got a long way to go before he reaches the major leagues.  There’s a big jump in talent between A+ and AA, and plenty of great looking pitchers in A+ blow out their arms long before they reach the majors.

In looking at Garko’s salary, he just missed being a super-2, and thus eligible for arbitration, this past off-season.  He’s only making $446,100 this year, which is a bargain.  Given that he really doesn’t hit enough for a 1Bman (career .805 OPS) and the Indians are rebuilding and looking to cut salary, it’s possible that the Indians would have non-tendered him rather than let him get a huge raise in arbitration this coming off-season.  This may have been the reason why the Giants were able to get him for a single player still in A+ ball.

Still, Garko is better than what the Giants have now, and he’s certainly got incentive to play well the rest of the season as he goes into his first arbitration year.  Meanwhile, the Indians get to call up 25 year old Andy Marte, whose .963 OPS currently leads the AAA International League by 44 points.  In short, it looks like a good move for both clubs.

One final note: the Giants sent down John Bowker and Matt Downs today and called up Jesus Guzman and Eugenio Velez.   Yeah, Bowker was hitting a feeble .156, but he only got 32 ABs.  What does that prove?

Guzman was hitting .336 with a .916 at Fresno, so he arguably deserved another look.  Velez was hitting .297 with a .791 OPS at Fresno, very similar to what Frandsen and Downs have done there.  I doubt Velez will play any better than Frandsen or Downs did in San Francisco.  It will likely be a short stay for Guzman, as the Giants now need to open up a roster space for Garko.

Update on North American Players in Japan, Part X: “T” through “Z”

Ryan Vogelsong, Orix Buffaloes.  Giants and Pirates fans will remember Vogelsong, a right-handed pitcher who’s 31 this year.

Vogelsong has more major league experience than most pitchers who go to Japan, but he didn’t have much success at the highest level in the States, finishing with a career major league 5.86 ERA in 315 IP.  The Pirates gave him many opportunities to establish himself as a major league pitcher, but Vogelsong didn’t get it done.

Vogelsong was signed by the Hanshin Tigers, and he gave them one and half solid seasons as a starter before hurting his arm last year.  In ’07, he went 7-6 with a 4.13 ERA with 91 Ks and 41 BBs in 106.2 IP.

In ’08, he was 3-4 with a 3.99 ERA before injuries ended his season.

Vogelsong signed with the Orix Buffaloes for 2009 at a roughly $300,000 pay cut, down to a little over $500,000 for the season.  However, it has not been a good sign for the Buffaloes.

Vogelsong has made 17 appearances for the Buffaloes and has compiled a 0-3 record with an ugly 6.84 ERA in 25 IP.  His other numbers really aren’t bad: 31 hits allowed, 2 HRs, 10 BBs and 33 Ks.  He must be allowing the hits in bunches.

Vogelsong has been sent down to the Buffaloes’ minor league team for “readjustment”, as they say in Japan when they send someone down.  He’s 4-3 for the minor league team with a mediocre 4.50 ERA.  Unless he suddenly puts it together, this will be his last year in Japan.

Les Walrond, Yokohama Bay Stars.  Les Walrond is a hard-throwing left-handed pitcher, who’s 32 years old this year.  He started in the Cardinals’ system and got major league cups of coffee from the Royals in 2003, the Cubs in 2006 and the Phillies in 2008.

Walrond has good stuff, with 1.026 strikouts in 1202.1 minor league innings pitched, but he doesn’t have major league control.  His career major league ERA is 7.07 in 35.2 IP with 28 walks and 39 K’s.

Walrond is the kind of American pitcher Japanese teams have had some success with, as their good stuff is hard for Japanese hitters to hit and the strike zone is larger in Japan.

Walrond has been a good pick-up for the Yokohama Bay Stars.  Although he is only 5-7 with a 3.86 ERA, that’s not bad for on a team that’s currently 30-54 and in last place.  Walrond has been the Bay Stars second best starter, after Daisuke Miura who’s 7-6 with a 3.65 ERA.

Walrond also has 71 K’s, which is currently tied for 8th in the Central League.  He’s still pretty wild, and he’s already 32, so it’s no certainty that he’ll have a long career in Japan.

John Wasdin, Saitama Seibu Lions.  MLB fans will remember John Wasdin.  He had a long MLB career, pitching for the A’s, Red Sox, Colorado, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rangers and Pirates.  He bounced around a lot, because he never lived up to his promise.

Wasdin’s best year in America was probably 1999, when he went 8-3 for the Red Sox with a 4.12 ERA as a reliever.  He also recorded four saves for the 2005 Rangers.  Wasdin finished his MLB career with a 39-39 record and a 5.28 ERA in 793.1 IP over 328 appearances.

Wasdin is 36 this year, and usually Japanese teams have more sense than to sign an American pitcher of this advanced age and marginal talent level.  However, Wasdin had pitched briefly for the Yomiuir Giants in 2002; and, obviously, the Lions thought he might have something left.

It doesn’t appear that he does.  Wasdin was demoted to the Lions’ minor league team after starting the season with a 5.48 ERA after twelve starts.  Wasdin has pitched well at the minor league level, however.  He’s only 1-3 after six starts, but has an excellent 2.65 ERA.

Jeff Williams, Hanshin Tigers.  Jeff Williams is a 37 year old AUSTRALIAN (an Aussie wrote in and took me to task for identifying pitcher Adrian Burnside as a “North American” for purposes of this series, even though Burnside spent twelve years pitching professionally in the U.S., so I don’t want to make that mistake again), who played college ball at Southeastern Louisiana University (I wonder how he ended up there?) and spent six years in the Dodgers’ farm system.

Williams was undrafted and didn’t begin playing for the Dodgers organization until the year he turned 25, so I assume he was older than normal when he left college and that he pitched in one of the Independent A leagues before being signed by the Dodgers.

The Dodgers gave Williams cups of coffee every year from 1999 through 2002, but except for the first one in 1999, he never pitched well at the major league level.  His major league career ERA of 7.49 in 57.2 IP pretty much says it all.

In 2002 Williams had a fantastic season at AAA Las Vegas, finishing the year with a 6-4 record, a 2.60 ERA and 28 saves.  He also recorded 75 Ks and only 22 walks in 79.2 IP.  He was probably ready to be a major league pitcher at this point, but he was already 30 years old and pitched poorly in his last, late-season cup of coffee in Los Angeles.

The Hanshin Tigers signed Williams for 2003, and he quickly won the closer role.  He recorded 25 saves for the Tigers in ’03 to go with a miniscule 1.54 ERA and better than 4-to-1 Ks-to-BBs ratio.

In 2004 Williams’ ERA jumped to 3.28, and although he saved 14 games that year, he appears to have lost the closer role and never won it back.  A lot of that has to do with the rise of flame-throwing Kyuji Fujikawa in 2005.  From 2005 through 2008, Fujikawa posted ERAs of 1.36, 0.68, 1.63 and 0.67 with a Ks per nine innings over the four seasons of 13.0 and a Ks-to-BBs ratio of better than 6-to-1.  Wow!  Those numbers put even Joe Nathan to shame.

Williams hasn’t been quite that good, but he’d probably close for a majority of the other teams in Japan.  From 2005 through 2007, Williams posted ERAs of 2.11, 1.90 and 0.96 with a Ks per nine innings rate of 9.7 and a Ks-to-BBs ratio of roughly 3.75-to-1.

Williams’ ERA jumped to 3.09 in 2008, but his ratios were still great, and he went 5-4 with 5 saves, his highest saves total since 2004.

So far this year, Williams clearly seems to have lost something.  His ERA is a respectable 3.58 at the Japanese All-Star break (the Japanese All-Star Series is being played as I write this), but he has allowed 20 walks, more than in any of the past three seasons, in only 27.1 IP.  He’s notched 35 Ks to go with all the walks, so the walk total may be a fluke.  However, for a guy with consistently great control for years and years to suddenly give up walks at a rate of more than 6.5 per nine innings hints that he’s nearing the end of his career.  It’s been a good one, in Japan at least.

The Hanshin Tigers are the wealthiest team in Japan after the Yomiuri Giants, and they have paid amply to have the best two-man reliever combination in Japanese baseball.  Williams is being paid 230 million yen for the third year in a row in ’09, which at current exchange rates means he’s making about $2.4 million this year.

This is an astronomical sum for a Japanese team to spend on a set-up man, even one as good as Williams.  By way of comparison, Fujikawa made 170 million yen in ’07, 280 million yen in ’08, and a whopping 400 million yen this year.

By way of further comparison, veteran position stars Michichiro Ogasawara (.318 career batting average, 329 HRs) and Kazuhiro Wada (.314 batting average, 213 HRs) are being paid, respectively, 380 million yen by the Yomiuri Giants and 280 million yen by the Chunichi Dragons this year.  If an American team, say the Mets, were willing to give their top relievers similar salaries to what the Hanshin Tigers have given Fujikawa and Williams, in terms of current MLB salary scales, K-Rod would be earning about $20 million a year and J. J. Putz about $12M a year, roughly double what they’re actually making this year.

Ryan Wing, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.  Ryan Wing is a 27 year old left handed pitcher, who pitched in the White Sox, Rangers and A’s minor league systems.  He had a fine year last year at AAA Sacramento, the A’s top farm team, where he had a 2.33 ERA in 47 relief appearances.

Wing had a major arm injury in late 2005, and after signing with the Ham Fighters for 2009, he hurt his left shoulder.  He has yet to pitch a game in Japan at either the major league or minor league level, and the most recent reports indicate that he will have shoulder surgery in the near future.  His Japanese career may be over before it begins.

Jonah Bayliss, Saitama Seibu Lions. The Lions obtained Bayliss on July 23 from the Toronto Blue Jays AAA team.  Bayliss is a 28 year old right-handed pitcher, who pitched briefly for the Royals and Pirates in 2005 through 2007.

Bayliss’ one extended major league opportunity came with the Pirates in 2007, and it was ugly.  He appeared in 37 games, and posted a brutal 8.39 ERA coming from 51 hits and eight HRs allowed in 37.2 IP.  His strikeout and walks numbers weren’t bad, but who cares when you get hit like that?

This year, Jonah was 7-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 5 saves for Las Vegas in the Pacific Coast League.  He allowed 39 hits, 24 walks and recorded 48 Ks in 50 IP.  He looks like a good player at this moment in his career for the Lions to take a chance on.

I think I have now covered every “American” player to play in Japan this year.  If I’ve missed anyone, let me know.

As you can see, most of the American players who have gone to Japan and had success there have been just a hair below MLB-calibre regulars, developed at too old an age to be taken seriously in the U.S., had an injury or two at the wrong time, or got off to bad starts on their major league trials and so didn’t get into enough games to show what they could really do.

As you can see, there is a natural relationship between NPB and MLB in terms of the kinds of players who go back and forth.  The very best Japanese players can make far more money in the U.S. than in Japan, so there’s a strong incentive, aside from the higher level of talent and the bigger stage, for the Icharo’s and Godzillas and Dice-K’s to come to the U.S.

Meanwhile, the 4-A minor leaguers, who are really too good to be stuck in the minors, but too old to get a shot for a major league team, can make a lot more money playing in Japan than in the Pacific Coast League or the International League or in any league outside the U.S.  The Japanese teams seem to be getting better and better at identifying the best of these 4-A players to bring over at large salaries by NPB standards.

Certainly, the Japanese teams are bringing in fewer over-the-hill MLB stars than they once did.  Like MLB teams, the Japanese teams are looking for stars who will last a few seasons.

Of course, like establishing one’s self as an MLB player, for most of the 4-A players going to Japan, it’s still something of a crap shoot as to which ones will develop into stars and which ones will be sent unceremonially packing.  Even more so than in the U.S. major leagues (and they are not bastians of patience either), American players in Japan have to adapt quickly or be lucky enough to get off to good starts, or their Japanese careers are over.

I hope you have enjoyed this series.  At the end of the season, I’ll provide briefer summaries of how all these luminaries finished out their Japanese league seasons.

Here And There

I wrote in a post a couple of days ago that I didn’t think the Indians got enough in return when they traded Rafael Betancourt to the Rockies.  However, they sure got a lot in return from the Cardinals for Mark DeRosa.

The deal looked like a solid move when the Tribe got pitcher Chris Perez, who was a former first round draft pick and the Cardinals’ 3rd best prospect according to Baseball America.  Today, the player to be named later was announced as Jess Todd, a relief pitcher, who is a former second round draft pick, and the fourth best prospect in the Cardinals’ system, according to BA.

Todd is having a terrific year at AAA Memphis in the Pacific Coast League.  He is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 24 saves.  He has 59 K’s in 49 IP with only 31 hits and 13 walks allowed; and he’s only 23 years old.

In short, if Perez and Todd stay healthy, they may well form the backbone of the Indians’ bullpen for the next five or six years.

It has been reported that the Blue Jays have turned down an offer by the Phillies of pitcher J.A. Happ, pitcher Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald and outfielder Michael Taylor all for Doc Halladay.

That’s a lot of young players, but I don’t think any is a can’t-miss star.  Happ has been terrific this year, and I’m not sure that the Phillies gain much by trading him for Halladay, at least in the regular season.  Of course, if the Phillies are sure they’ll make the play-offs, you’d rather have Halladay in the post-season.

However, Happ is already 26 this year, which makes me wonder whether he can really be a top of the rotation starter for 4-6 years.

Carrasco looks awfully good at age 22, but he still needs another year in the minors.  He’s 6-9 with a 5.18 in AAA this year, but with 112 Ks and only 38 walks in 114.2 IP.  Long flies have been his downfall this year, but’s he’s certainly promising.

Infielder Jason Donald looked very promising at the end of 2008, but he’s having a lost season this year at AAA.  He’s hitting only .230 this year with a .617 OPS at AAA, and he turns 25 on September 4.  Not what you’d like to get in exchange for Roy Halladay.

I like Michael Taylor, however.  He went to Stanford, and he’s hit well at every stop in the minors so far (.902 career minor league OPS).  He’s 23 this year and has just been promoted to AAA.

Taylor’s an enormous man, listed as 6’6″ and 250 lbs; and he runs extremely well so such a big man.  This year, he has stolen twenty bases in 24 attempts, mostly at the AA level.

Taylor hasn’t hit for quite as much power as you might expect so far in his minor league career (42 HRs in 1,079 ABs), but given his size and his ability to hit for average, one has to expect that the HRs will come.  Of the players the Phillies offered the Jays, Taylor appears the most exciting at this moment, in my mind at least.

Ryan Sadowski had his third consecutive poor outing after his amazing first two starts.  He’s now 2-3 and his ERA is up to 4.81.  It looks like the law of averages is catching up to him.

Sadowski may be only one more ineffective start from a trip back to AAA Fresno.  After an ugly start on July 11 in which he allowed six earned runs in five innings pitched, Kevin Pucetas has had two more good starts, and his ERA at Fresno is down to 3.26.

Veteran Ramon Ortiz is also pitching extremely well at Fresno.  His ERA is down to 2.85, after allowing only one earned run over 14 innings in his last two starts.  Ortiz’s ratios are also very good.

In short, Sadowski doesn’t have a lot of margin for mediocrity with Pucetas and Ortiz performing the way they are at Fresno.

The Giants once again looked like lambs on offense today at Coors Field.  It was a typical Giants’ performance: seven singles, two doubles, no walks and two runs scored.  It makes me think that some kind of deal for another bat will be made by the deadline on Friday.

Update on North American Players in Japan, Part IX: “S”

Mike Schultz, Toyo Hiroshima Carp.  Mike Schultz is a tall, 29 year old right-handed pitcher, who played in the Diamondbacks’ organization and appeared in one game for the parent team at the end of 2007.

The D’Backs once thought highly enough of Schultz to draft him in the 2nd round of the 2000 Draft (solely on stuff: his college ERAs were over 5.00), but he generally underwhelmed in his minor league career.  As a reliever at AAA Tucson in 2006 and 2007, he had ERAs of 3.59 and 3.92, and he pretty much appeared to be a solid AAA pitcher but not good enough to have a major league career, or even much likelihood of success in Japan, for that matter.

A scout or two for the Hiroshima Carp must have seen something they liked in Schultz, because they signed him to a contract for the 2008; and Schultz has had a very successful first season and a half in Japan.

In ’08, Schultz pitched in 55 games, all in relief, and posted a 3.23 ERA.

This year, Schultz has improved dramatically.  He’s become the Carp’s principal set-up man to closer Katsuhiro Nagakawa.  Schultz is 2-1 with one save and 22 holds.  His ERA is only 1.23, and he’s allowed only 29 hits and ten walks in 44 IP.  He has 44 K’s.

He’s only making about $450,000 this year, so he’s likely to get a big raise in 2010.

Scott Seabol, Toyo Hiroshima Carp.  He’s a 34 year old 3Bman who played in the Yankees, Brewers, Cardinals, and Marlins organizations.  His only real shot in MLB came with the 2005 Cardinals, when he hit .219 with no power in 105 AB’s.

Seabol had monster years in AAA in 2004 and 2007 and in half a season in 2006, hitting 80 HR’s in  those roughly two and half seasons.  Exactly the type of 4-A player the Japanese teams like to take a chance on.

He had a solid year for the Carp in 2008, hitting .273 with 15 HRs in 400 ABs.  However, he’s been having his problems this year.

He got off to a slow start, hitting only .216 with four homeruns in his first 125 AB’s and then he hurti his knee in late May.  As far as I can tell, he hasn’t played for the Carp since, although it appears he has played in a few games for their minor league team, perhaps as part of a rehab assignment.

Meanwhile, another American import Scott McClain has taken over at 3B for the Carp and is beginning to hit.  His average is up to .245, and McClain has nine homeruns in 188 ABs.

In short, it looks like Scott Seabol’s Japanese career is in serious trouble.  McClain and Seabol offer the Carp roughly the same thing, and McClain is healthier and playing better this season.  I can’t imagine the Carp wanting to keep two of these guys around, especially when Seabol is making nearly twice as much as McClain for the same type of performance.

Fernando Seguignol, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.  Montreal Expos fans (if there are any of them left; Montreal was once a great baseball town; now it doesn’t appear that there is even a minor league team playing there; if not, it’s a shame and an opportunity for some intrepid minor league operator) will remember Seguignol, a big hard-hitting 1Bman from Bocas del Toro, Panama.

Fernando nearly established himself as a major league regular, but like a lot of 4-A stars, he developed late and was considered too old once he was really ready for the Show.

Fernando had his first break-out minor league season at AA Hartford in 1998, which earned him a well-played cup of coffee with the Expos at the end of the season.  In 1999 and 2000, he split time between AAA Ottawa and Montreal, putting up OPS numbers of .814 and .838 in 105 and 162 major league ABs, respectively.  Pretty good, but not so much for a major league starting 1Bman.

Fernando split 2001 between AAA Ottawa and Montreal yet again, but this year his major league performance was terrible.  He was used almost exclusively as a pinch hitter, and he didn’t get the job done, going 7 for 50 (.140 batting average) with no HRs.

Fernando signed with the Orix Blue Wave in 2002 and hit 23 HR’s in only 280 ABs.  Unfortunately, he also hit only .204 and struck out 104 times.  He wasn’t resigned, and he played at AAA Columbus in the Yankees organization in 2003.

Seguignol had a fantastic season at Columbus in ’03, hitting .341 with 28 HR’s and a 1.025 OPS.  And the Japanese teams came calling again.

He signed with the Nippon-Ham Fighters for 2004 and had a monster season, hitting .305 with 44 HRs, 108 RBI’s and 1.070 OPS.

Fernando has been living off that 2004 season ever since.  He continues to be a solid player, but his numbers have declined a little almost every year since that golden season.  He 31 HRs in ’05, 26 HRs in ’06 and 21 HRs in ’07.  That last year, his average dropped almost fifty points to .249.  Interestingly, however, his big bump in salary (from about $750,000 to over $2M) came not after the 44 HR season, but the season after his follow-up 31 HR campaign.  $2M+ is too much to pay for his 2007 performance, and the Ham Fighters dumped him after the 2007 season.

Seguignol played 49 for Tabasco in the Mexican League and 24 games for Toledo, the Detroit Tigers’ AAA team in the International League in 2008, played creditably in both places, and was signed by the Rakuten Golden Eagles (at a greatly reduced salary from what he made with the Ham Fighters) to finish out the 2008 season.

Fernando finished out the 2008 season with some heavy hitting for the Golden Eagles, batting .328 with 13 HRs in only 39 games.  So far in 2009, however, Fernando is really showing his age (34 this year).  In more at-bats than last year, he has only seven HRs and is hitting a feeble .196.  Unless he gets red hot in the second half, it looks like this will be Fernando’s final season in Japan.

Rick Short, Tohoku Golden Eagles.  Rick Short is a 36 year old jack-of-all-trades, who has played first, second, third and the corner outfield positions in both the U.S. and Japan.  He’s another classic 4-A player who has had success in the Far East.

Rick has always been a high average hitter who lacked the power to be a major league player.  He hit .331 in the AA Eastern League in 2000 and .356 in the AAA Pacific Coast League in 2002 without even receiving a major league cup of coffee for his efforts.

Rick signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines in 2003 and put up a fine season, hitting .303 with 12 HRs and a .362 OBP.  However, the Japanese teams want more power from their highly paid American players, and Rick did not return to Japan in 2004.

Instead, he went back to the States and had a respectable season split between the Expos’ and Royals’ AAA teams.  In 2005, however, Rick led the PCL in hitting with a lusty .383 batting average, 23 points better than another great 4-A player, Joe Dillon (Dillon had a brief trial in Japan in 2006, played poorly and was shipped back to the U.S.; it’s worked out for Dillon, though; he’s played in 108 MLB games since 2007).

It was the second time Rick had led the PCL in batting average.   The Rakuten Golden Eagles came calling, and Rick went back to Japan to play in 2006.

After hitting .314 in 2006, Rick led Japan’s Pacific League in batting average two years in a row, hitting .330 in ’07 and .332 on ’08.  Rick is very popular in Japan, where he is known simply as “Rick” because the Japanese fans have trouble pronouncing his last name.

Rick has value because of his ability to play many positions, but he’s really not a particularly good hitter even with the batting championships.  He walks infrequently (his season high since coming back to Japan in 2006 is 29 times in 458 plate appearances), he hits with little power (a total of 20 HRs for the the 2006 through 2008 seasons combined) and he hits into a lot of double plays (67 times in his first four seasons).

Rick was a bit better last year, clubbing 12 HRs and hitting into only 11 doubleplays, and he set Japanese career highs with 62 runs scored and 71 runs batted in.  Despite leading the league in hitting in 2007, he scored only 31 runs in 458 plate appearances.  Wow!

In 2006, despite hitting .314 in 401 ABs, he scored only 33 runs and drove in only 34.  The Golden Eagles’ offense was terrible those years, but other than hitting a lot of singles and a few doubles, Rick wasn’t contributing a whole lot either.

This will be almost certainly be Rick’s last season in Japan.  He’s hitting only .230 in 126 ABs, he’s scored only eight runs, and he’s driven in only five runs.  He hurt his shoulder around June 10, and it appears he hasn’t played at the major league level since.  He is hitting .391 in 23 ABs for the Golden Eagles’ minor league team, however.

What with the two batting titles, Rick’s salary has climbed up to about $1.25 million this year, which is really too much even when Rick was hitting .330.  Without the league leading batting averages to cover up his offensive failings, his lack of production must be apparent even to the Golden Eagles.

Brian Sikorski, Chiba Lotte Marines.  Sikorski is a hard-throwing right-hander who has had a long and successful career in Japan as a set-up man coming out of the bullpen.

Sikorski started his professional career as a starter in the Astros’ organization and then the Rangers’ organization.  In 2000, at age 26, he pitched in ten games for the Rangers, recording a 5.74 ERA in 37.1 IP.

Sikorski was pitching great after 14 starts at AAA Oklahoma City in 2001, posting a 3.61 ERA with great ratios, but even though he only turned 27 on July 27, the Rangers didn’t think enough of him to prevent them from selling his contract to the Chiba Lotte Marines.

Sikorski appeared in twelve games for the Marines in 2001 and pitched poorly, recording an ERA of 6.43, apparently mostly as a starter.  The Marines liked his stuff enough to keep him around despite his poor showing and high salary.  They converted him into a relief pitcher in 2002, and his career exploded.

In 2002, Sikorski pitched 96.2 innings over47 appearances.  Although his ERA was a not especially impressive 3.44, he allowed only 76 hits, 20 walks and recorded 102 Ks.  In 2003, he lowered his ERA to 3.16.

In 2004, Sikorski was apparently traded to the Yomuiri Giants, where surprisingly he took a substantial paycut.  Again, he was primarily used as a set-up man, but he did record five saves and lowered his ERA again to 2.67.  In 2005, Sikorski pitched in 70 games for the Giants, and although his ERA rose to 3.29, he recorded 100 Ks in 87.2 IP.

After establishing himself as top relief pitcher in Japan, Sikorski tried going back to the States in 2006.  He signed with the Padres’ organization and started the year at their AAA team in Portland.  He pitched well there, posting a 3.14 ERA with seven saves, and recording 44 Ks and only seven walks in 28.2 IP.

This earned him a call-up to the Padres, but he didn’t get the job done, posting a 5.65 ERA in thirteen relief appearances.  As has often been the case for Sikorski in both the U.S. and Japan, giving up the long ball was his one great weakness.

The Padres then traded Sikorski to the Indians where he actually pitched pretty well.  His ERA was only 4.58, again due to too many HRs allowed, but he racked up 24 Ks and only 4 walks in 19.2 IP for the Tribe.

Sikorski started 2007 back in AAA, pitching for the Indians’ farm team in Buffalo.  He had a 3.52 ERA with good ratios, when the Yakult Swallows purchased his contract.

Since returning to Japan, Sikorski has become one of the best relievers in Japan.  His ERA in half a season in 2007 was 2.29, his ERA in 2008 was 2.23, and his ERA in 32 appearances so far this year is down to 1.89.

Sikorski returned to the Marines in 2008, and they’ve used him mainly an inning at a time, initially as the set up man to the Marines’ young closer Tadahiro Ogino.  However, Ogino has pitched poorly this year, and in the last month Sikorski has been moved into the closer role.  He now has four saves.

Terrmel Sledge, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.  North American fans will remember Terrmel.  In the Expos’ last year in Montreal (2004), Terrmel got into a 133 games mostly at the corner outfield positions and mainly out of desperation of the Expos’ part.  However, Termel was 27, the age at which ballplayers as a group peak, and he had a good year.  He hit .269 with 15 HRs and a .798 OPS in 398 ABs.

The next year in Washington, Sledge began the season on the Nationals’ roster and hit the Nationals’ first HR ever on Opening Day, but he tore his hamstring on May 2nd and didn’t play again that year.

Terrmel was traded to the Padres during the off-season, and in 2006 and 2007, he got a combined 270 ABs at the major league level.  However, Petco Park is a tough place to hit, and Terrmel couldn’t hit there at all.  In 2007, for example, he hit .168 with a .531 OPS at home and .253 with an .804 OPS on the road in roughly equal numbers of at-bats.

Due to his significant major league experience, Terrmel signed with the Nippon-Ham Fighters for a large first-year contract of approximately $1.5 million for the 2008 season.  He had strong rookie campaign in Japan that year, hitting .289 with 16 HRs and an .834 OPS in 395 ABs.

Terrmel has had a harder time of it this year.  He’s hitting only .240, although he has a dozen homeruns and 16 doubles in 217 AB’s.  Because he’ll take a walk and is hitting for more power than last year, his OPS is .820 so far in 2009, very close to what it was at the end of the season last year.

I think that Sledge will have a few more solid seasons in Japan.  The only knock on him really is that he’s already 32 years old.

Brian Sweeney, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.  Brian Sweeney is a 35 year old right-handed pitcher from Yonkers, New York.  He was undrafted as a senior playing at small-time Mercy College in Dobbs Ferry, NY, and he got his start in 1996 pitching in a now-defunct Independant A league.  He went 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA, and the Mariners signed him.

Sweeney toiled for years in the Mariners’ system, finally getting a cup of coffee in 2003 at age 29.  He pitched well, recording a 1.93 ERA in 9.1 major league innings.

Sweeney was then traded to the Padres in 2004, and he got a cup of coffee with them that year in which he got hit hard.  He spent all of 2005 in the minors, and after an unimpressive start there in 2006, the Padres called him up and stuck him in their bullpen, presumably out of desperation.

Sweeney pitched surprisingly well for the Padres in ’06.  He appeared in 37 games, posted a 3.20 ERA, and even picked up two saves.  His other numbers were mediocre, and he was already 32 that year, so the Padres didn’t object when he signed a roughly $675,000 contract with the Ham Fighters for 2007.

In ’07, Sweeney was primarily used as a starter.  He went 6-8 with a 3.70 ERA in 21 games.

Sweeney had a far better year in 2008.  He went 12-5 with a 3.48 ERA, making him one of the top ten starters in Japan’s Pacific League.  However, he also led the league in walks with 72 and struck out only 90 in 163 IP.

Guys with ratios like Sweeney’s tend to be inconsistent, no matter what league they’re playing in, and Sweeney’s 2009 season is a good demonstration of this fact.  He’s 2-5 this year, and his ERA has jumped to 5.58.  He’s 35 this year, so some of his poor performance may also be age-related.

One thing is almost certain, however: 2009 will be his last season in Japan.  At least, he’ll be able to walk away with earnings of more than $2 million for this three years of work there.