Archive for the ‘Atlanta Braves’ category

Karma Catching Up to Frank McCourt and Other Notes

April 20, 2013

The never ending saga of the Frank/Jamie McCourt divorce has entered a new phase.  Jamie is seeking to re-open the former couple’s marital property settlement agreement and obtain an additional $770 million on top of the $131 million she received previously.  All I can say is that it couldn’t have happened to a more deserving ex-husband.

Frank McCourt is a sack.  According to wikipedia, McCourt financed his 2004 purchase of the Los Angeles Dodgers mostly with debt which he repaid in part by raising ticket and concession prices every year he owned the team.  He paid himself and his now ex-wife enormous salaries out of the Dodgers’ enormous revenue streams, but largely avoided paying taxes by structuring these payments as “loans.”

During his tenure, McCourt effectively ran the team into the ground, so much so that the team filed for bankruptcy protection in 2011, despite being one of the top three or four teams in MLB in terms of revenue streams.  MLB was able to force McCourt to sell the team, but McCourt then sold the team for $2 billion, more than 4.5 times what he had paid for the team only eight years before.

Frank McCourt is an insatiably greedy scumbag who married a woman after his own heart.  When the marriage failed (surprise, surprise!), she went after his ill-gotten gains with the determination of a hungry lion after an old and sickly wildebeest.  In my book, that’s karma.

As a San Francisco Giants fan, I normally wouldn’t shed a lot of tears over terrible things happening to the Dodgers.  As a baseball fan, however, it bothered me to see a storied franchise being raped by an “entrepeneur” who wasn’t content to take the typically obscene profits major league owners make in the course of buying and selling top franchises, but had to milk the situation for still more.

I’d rather see the Dodgers fail the old fashioned way: poor baseball decisions like bad trades and overpaying already expensive free agents who don’t end up performing as the team hoped.

Meanwhile, in today’s baseball action, I see that Andy Pettitte won again and is now 3-0.  If he is really and truly off Vitamin S for good, it’s great to see a soon-to-be 41 year old continuing to flummox major league hitters.

It will be interesting to see how Hall of Fame voters treat Pettitte however many years from now.  On the one hand, his numbers are clearly Hall of Fame worthy: he’s almost certain to finish with more than 250 career wins, a terrific winning percentage and an excellent post-season record for numerous World Champions.  On the other hand, he’s an admitted steroids/PEDs abuser.

However, he copped to his PED use a lot faster than most of his fellow cheats, told a pretty good story about why he did it (trying to recover quickly from an injury to help his team, blah, blah, blah), and even fingered another reputed and more significant steroids cheat, all-time great Roger Clemens.  That might buy Pettitte some sympathy from Hall of Fame voters — Americans, as a group, love to see the mighty cut down to size, but we’re awfully forgiving when said mighties abjectly admit their mistakes and ask for forgiveness — it has a lot to do with our Puritan (read broadly) heritage.

Meanwhile, Roy Halladay and the Phillies beat the Cardinals today 8-2 in a game called on account of rain after six and half innings.  I wonder if umpires are more likely to shorten games on account of rain when the game is a blow out?

My guess is yes, umpires do.  They are human, and I can’t imagine that they don’t take into account the score and the inning when deciding if it’s rained long enough to call the game.  If the game was 3-2 after six and a half, I suspect the umpires would have waited longer to try to get more of the game into the record books.

Has anyone done any research on this question?  If not, it would make an interesting research topic for the SABRly minded.

Meanwhile, I have no idea whether the Pirates will contend this year, but at least they’re trying.  Right now, the Bucs’ decisions to take on A. J. Burnett’s (albeit at a steep discount) and Wandy Rodriguez’s salaries last year looks brilliant.  Today Rodriguez completely shut down the Braves, the hottest team in baseball; and Burnett has a 2.63 ERA and leads the NL in strikeouts.

Michael Bourn Gets Burned

February 12, 2013

The Indians have reportedly signed center fielder Michael Bourn to a four-year deal for $48 million.  While Bourn won’t be going to bed hungry any time soon, this deal is a disaster for him and his agent Scott Boras, given that the majority opinion was that Bourn was the best true center fielder available in this year’s free agent class.

The obvious comparison is with B. J. Upton, who got five years at a guaranteed $75.25 million from the Braves earlier this off-season.  Yes, Upton is two years younger than Bourn, but Bourn has been much better last year and the last three years.

In 2012, fangraphs rated Bourn’s performance as worth $28.9 million and Upton’s at $15.0 million.  Over the last three seasons, fangraphs rated Bourn’s performance as worth $66.2 million and Upton’s at $49.9 million.

Strangely, fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan thinks both the Indians and Bourn got good deals out of this signing.  I just don’t see it.

Even taking into account that much of Bourn’s value comes from his center field defense and the facts that he’s getting older and his defense is likely to slide in the next few seasons, Bourn looks like the kind of player who will be a more valuable lead-off hitter in years to come.  Bourn still runs extremely well (ten triples and 42 stolen bases in 55 attempts last season), he hit with more power than ever in his career (his nine home runs nearly doubled his career total), and he gets on base fairly well for a lead-off hitter who runs as well as he does (.348 OBP last year, and between .341 and .354 the previous three years).

I will admit, however, that Bourn is not an ideal lead-off hitter, due to his relatively low on-base percentages.  Bourn has not scored 100 runs in any of the last four seasons despite averaging 677 plate appearances per year and leading the NL in stolen bases in three of those seasons.  Wade Boggs, who ran like a slug, scored 100 or more runs in seven consecutive seasons because he got on base roughly 45% of his plate appearances.

Even so, the fact that Bourn got less than four years and $60 million has to be seen as a failure by his agent Scott Boras.  In fact, it’s not clear at all that the Braves decided they wanted Upton over Bourn.  Early in the off-season, Bourn/Boras were throwing up pie-in-the-sky contract numbers, and the Braves simply went out and got the next best player, for what at the time seemed like a more reasonable amount.

Would the Braves back in November have been willing to give Bourn the same contract they gave Upton?  I don’t have much doubt they would have.

Boras has generally been so good at turning what looked like a bad situation into a huge contract that I wasn’t willing to write him off until a relatively bad contract was actually signed.  Well, that bad contract has now been signed.  Boras overplayed Bourn’s hand, and Bourn will have to live with it — he’ll be crying all the way to the bank.

The new draft pick compensation scheme agreed upon by the owners and players’ association looks like a win for the owners.  The Mets almost certainly would have given Bourn more than what the Indians won with, but they were concerned about losing a first round draft pick (and the signing bonus pool money) despite finishing with the tenth worst record in MLB last season, thanks to the Pirates’ failure to sign Mark Appel, another Boras client, with the eighth pick of last year’s draft.

While the owners probably would have struck a deal to let the Mets keep their 2013 first round pick, even reaching that stage required the players’ association to file a grievance after the Mets signed Bourn (you can’t file a grievance or any other legal claim for a hypothetical injury), and this fact likely impacted the contract the Mets were willing to offer Bourn.

2013 should be an interesting season for the Indians.  Even with the additions of Brett Myers, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Trevor Bauer, their pitching still looks pretty weak, although Bourn in center should help a lot in that regard.

At a minimum, Ubaldo Jimenez will have to bounce back to the pitcher he was in 2009 and 2010, Justin Masterson will have to return to 2011 form, and Zach McAllister has to improve on his fine 2012 rookie season for the Tribe to be successful in 2013.  Seems like a tall order.

As a final and largely unrelated note, the Felix Hernandez contract extension seemed like a good move for both sides, at least until medical tests suggested a problem with King Felix’s pitching elbow.  Despite all the talk of record-setting contracts, the extension really only promised Hernandez $139.5 million in new money, while giving him the ego bump of a record-setting contract and allowing the Mariners to control him through age 33, which is just about ideal for a pitcher of his caliber.

My biggest concern with a long-term extension for Hernandez was all the innings he’s pitched before age 25.  Needless to say, it’s not particularly surprising that his elbow is showing wear after all the innings he’s pitched in his career to date.

The Justin Upton Trade

January 25, 2013

The Justin Upton for Martin Prado and a bunch of prospects trade between the Atlanta Braves and the Arizona Diamondbacks looks to me like an unqualified win for the Braves.

Prado is an extremely useful player because of his ability to play a number of different positions.  However, he is four years older than Upton (Prado will be 29 in 2013, while Upton will be 25), and there’s just no way Prado has anywhere near Upton’s upside, even taking park factors into account.

Of course, the Diamondbacks also got RHP Randall Delgado, RHP Zeke Spruill, SS Nick Ahmed and 1B Brandon Drury, while the Braves received 3B Chris Johnson.

Delgado, who is originally from Panama, is definitely a legitimate prospect, but I’m not sure he’s a can’t miss.  He’ll be 23 next year and already has 127.2 innings pitched in the majors under his belt.  He hasn’t had major league command so far, but he definitely has major league stuff.  His career minor league record of 27-42 isn’t impressive, but his minor league pitching line of 582.1 IP, 527 hits and 221 walks allowed, and 620 strikeouts is.

Zeke Spruill and Nick Ahmed are both former 2nd round draft picks, but Ahmed looks like the better prospect.  Spruill in 20 starts at Class A+ Lynchburgh and 34 starts at AA Mississippi over the last two seasons struck out 214 batters in 336.1 innings pitched, which isn’t enough at these levels.  However, he’s young and appears to be a strike thrower and a ground ball pitcher (at least based on his HR totals), so he could develop into a major league pitcher, although probably not a particularly good one.

Ahmed at age 22 in 2012 hit .269 with a .337 OBP and a .728 OPS at Class A+ Lynchburg, after playing 59 games in a rookie league in 2011 with similar numbers.  I don’t think we’ll really know what kind of a prospect he is until he plays in AA ball in 2013.  However, he does have power potential (46 extra base hits last season), and he runs extremely well (40 stolen bases in 50 attempts).

Brandon Drury hit extremely well in rookie ball in 2011 (.347 batting average and .891 OPS) at age 18, but hit very little at Class A at age 19 in 2012 (.229 batting average and .603 OPS).  As a 1Bman, he’s going to have to hit and hit a lot to make the majors.

With the retirement of Chipper Jones and the loss of Martin Prado, the Braves needed a 3Bman, and they got one in Chris Johnson.  Johnson hits well enough for a 3rd sacker, but he can’t handle the hot corner defensively (.931 career fielding percentage at the position).  I’d suggest that the Braves try to convince Chipper Jones come back for one more year as a platoon player, but Johnson is one of those rare players who hits better against the platoon (at least so far in his major league career — .775 against right-handers and .667 against lefties as a right-handed batter).

D’Backs’ GM Kevin Towers was quoted as saying Justin Upton needs a change of scenery, which I think is code for the fact that too much was expected of Upton too soon in Arizona.  I think that playing with his brother B. J. in a very African American city as he comes into his prime years will be a very, very good situation for Justin and the Braves.

The Braves should have a tremendous outfield with the Uptons and Jason Heyward the next few seasons.  Of course, there’s also the very real possibility that they could strike out 500 times a season between them.  However, 500 strike outs doesn’t hurt so much if it also comes with 90+ home runs a year.

It’s no secret that African Americans have largely lost interest in baseball over the last 25 years.  It will be interesting to see if the Braves’ new all-black and potentially all-superstar outfield creates a new generation of black baseball fans in a city with a large African American middle class.  Even if it doesn’t, the current Braves’ fan base is probably going to be very happy with the results they get from their new outfield.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB 2013

January 11, 2013

Last summer I discovered that espn.com provides stats for what it calls “park factor”, which for purposes of this post means the ratio between the number of runs scored at a ballpark in any given season divided by the number of runs scored by said ballpark’s occupant (and its opponents) in away games that same season.  I wrote a post last June which evaluates each park’s park factor for the five years ending with the 2011 season.

As we approach the 2013 season (and the 2012 stats have long been in), it seems like a good time to update my earlier post incorporating the 2012 season.  Without further ado, here are the average park factors for all major league ballparks over the last six season (or less for the five ball parks that have opened more recently).

1.  Coors Field (Rockies) 1.301

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers) 1.148

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.134

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.131

5.  U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.111

6.  Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.086

7.  Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.080

8.  New Yankee Stadium (2009-2012) 1.066 [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008, 1.002]

9.  Great American Ball Park (Reds) 1.057.

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.044.

11.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.018

12.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

12.  Miller Park (Brewers) 1.010

14.  Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) 1.008

15.  Marlins Park (2012) 1.005  [Sun Life Stadium, 2007-2011, 1.038]

16.  Nationals Park (2008-2012) 0.998 [RFK Stadium, 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.986

18.  Target Field (Twins, 2010-2012) 0.983 [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

19.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.978

20.  Progressive Field (Indians) 0.960

21.  Angels Stadium 0.939

22.  PNC Park (Pirates) 0.936

22.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals) 0.936

24.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 0.919

25.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.917

26.  Dodger Stadium 0.915

27.  Citi Field (Mets, 2009-2012) 0.904 [Shea Stadium, 2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.889

29.  Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.864

30.  Petco Park (Padres) 0.808

The rankings didn’t change much from last year.  Among last year’s ten best hitters’ parks, U.S. Cellular Park, where the White Sox play, was apparently a great place to hit in 2012, moving it up two slots.  New Yankee Stadium was apparently not a great place to hit, moving it down two slots. Coors Field improved on its status as far and away the best hitters’ park in MLB.

The Marlins’ new park, which looked like a great place to hit in late June of last year, turned out to be only a little better than average for the full season — we’ll have to see how it plays over the next few seasons.

The Royals’ Kauffman Stadium moved up two slots, and the Phillies’ Citizens’ Bank Park fell two slots.  The Astros’ Minute Maid Park also fell two slots.  The Twins’ Target Field was a hitters’ park for the first time in its three year history, jumping it up four slots.  The Pirates and Giants and their respective opponents scored a lot more runs on the road in 2012, causing both PNC Park and AT&T Park to drop three slots.

With another year in the books, the Mets’ Citi Field is developing into as much of a pitchers’ park as the old Shea Stadium.  San Diego’s Petco Park remains the worst place to ply one’s trade as a major league hitter, but Seattle’s Safeco Field narrowed the gap considerably.

The R. A. Dickey Trade

December 17, 2012

Here’s an article from Tyler Kepner of the New York Times which I thought was pretty good.  It struck me as written by a Mets/baseball fan, who is genuinely hurt that the Mets gave up someone who has pitched great for the team the last few seasons in exchange for as yet unproven prospects.

While I don’t necessarily agree with the article’s implicit/basic premise that the Mets should have extended R. A. Dickey for somewhat below market salaries rather than trade him for some pretty good prospects, it does raise some issues I’d like to write about.

Dickey has been pretty terrific for the Mets the last three seasons (fangraphs.com values his contributions at $43.1 million over the last three seasons).  According to espn.com, Dickey would have re-upped with the Mets for two years (2014 and 2015 — Dickey is locked in to a mere $5 million for 2013) at $26-28 million if they had made the offer.  In theory, it’s hard to understand why the Mets didn’t pull that trigger.

I suspect there’s still that age-old prejudice against junk-ball pitchers playing a role in the Mets’ thinking.  Very few pitchers can master the knuckleball, they tend to do it at an old age (for baseball players), and teams are usually more than a little suspicious about how long they can keep it up even once they’ve done it.

Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm remained at the top their games until age 46 and 47, respectively. However, there are so few truly outstanding knuckleballers in baseball history that it’s nearly impossible to project how any one knuckleballer will pitch in future years.

For example, I kept waiting for Tim Wakefield to perfect his knuckleball and enter the elite level Dickey has now apparently reached, but it never quite happened.  Some of the difference may have been the fact that Wakefield pitched half his games in an extreme hitters’ park, while Dickey reached his peak pitching half his games in an extreme pitchers’ park.  Even so, Wakefield never won more than 17 games in a season for some pretty outstanding Red Sox teams.

In short, I suspect that the Mets simply don’t trust Dickey to keep pitching even as well as he did in 2010 and 2011.  They figured that now was the time to cash in on Dickey while the getting was good.

They certainly got a return from the Blue Jays.  Travis D’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard are both grade-A prospects.

Also, even with Dickey, the 2o12 Mets were not a good team.  While Dickey went 20-6, the 2012 Mets went 74-88.  The team needs a serious talent upgrade, at least based on what we’ve seen the last few seasons.

At the end of the day, the trade comes down to whether or not Dickey has really reached the Phil Niekro/Hoyt Wilhelm level with his knuckleball.  If he has, then trading him for a catcher with knee problems (D’Arnaud) and a young pitcher who hasn’t pitched above the Class A level (Syndergaard) is a huge mistake.  If not, then the Mets went out and got talent while the getting was good.

The problem is that there just aren’t enough ace knuckleball pitchers to predict which of the two possibilities will occur until Dickey plays out his string.  In my mind, the Blue Jays got the better end of this trade (assuming they can extend Dickey at a reasonable amount — a contingency of this pendng trade), but we’ll have to wait and see what Dickey actually does the next few seasons.

They Come and They Go, Part Two

December 13, 2012

The Cubs have reportedly signed Korean pitcher Chang-Yong Lim, who last pitched for the Yakult Swallows in Japan’s NPB, for a contract that can pay out as much as $5 million.  Meanwhile, the Rakuten Golden Eagles have signed Andruw Jones, most recently of the New York Yankees, to a contract that with performance bonuses could amount to 300 million yen ($3.63 million).

Lim is the real deal.  In five seasons in NPB (he also pitched 13 seasons in South Korea’s KBO), he recorded a 2.09 ERA and 128 saves.  The knocks on him are that he turns 37 next June and is coming off Tommy John surgery.  He’s definitely a risk for the Cubs, although it’s unclear how much of his contract is guaranteed, but he’s also potentially high reward.

Andruw Jones turns 36 in April, and he hit only .197 last year for the Yankees.  However, he still hit with power (14 HRs in 269 plate appearances, and that’s what the Golden Eagles are paying him for.  The Golden Eagles desperately need a power hitter, and they were willing to shell out (by the standards of an NPB small-market team) to get one.

If Jones stays healthy, I doubt he’ll hit much higher than .230 for the Golden Eagles, but I think it’s more likely than not he’ll challenge Willy Mo Pena, Dae Ho Lee, Sho Nakata and Takeya Nakamura for the Pacific League home run title.

It, of course, remains to be seen how Jones will adjust to playing in Japan.  One thing I feel fairly certain about, however, is that Jones will appreciate Japan’s Baseball Annies.  In the early 2000′s, when I had part of a season ticket package, those of us in the bleachers of Pac Bell Park (now AT&T Park) would chant “Gold Club” whenever Jones was playing center field for the Braves. [Here's a link if you don't remember the reference.] I’m sure he heard pretty much the same thing in all the other parks around the National League.

The B.J. Upton and Russell Martin Free Agent Signings

November 30, 2012

Reports are that B.J. Upton just signed a five year deal with the Atlanta Braves for $75.25 million and Russell Martin just signed a two year deal with the Pirates for $17 million.  Frankly, I expected both players to get more, based on the amounts relief pitchers have signed for earlier this off-season.

Some articles argue that the Braves are taking a risk with Upton based on his diminished on-base percentage in 2012, but I just don’t see it.  How many true center fielders with Upton’s power become free agents the off-season before they turn 28?  Not many.

Upton will be age 28 through 32 under the new contract, and for a player who runs as well as Upton, they are all reasonably likely to be prime seasons and may include the best seasons of his career.  Upton also moves out of Tropicana Field, one of the worst hitters’ parks in baseball.

Fangraphs values Upton’s performance over the last five seasons at $86 million.  For the Braves to sign Upton for five years and only through age 32 for a little over $75 million sounds like a bargain to me, given the premium free agents usually receive.

My feelings about Russell Martin are pretty much the same.  Two years, when Martin will be age 30 and 31, for $17 million sounds like a bargain to me.

O.K., Martin didn’t hit for average in New York, but he drew walks and hit for power, giving him OPS numbers over .700 both seasons, which is good for a catcher, particularly one who provides Martin’s defense.  Fangraphs values Martin’s two years as a Yankee at $23.6 million, which is a lot more than what the Pirates will pay him for the next two seasons.

If nothing else, Martin will certainly improve the Pirates’ defense at catcher significantly, given that Pirates’ catchers threw out only 11% of base-stealers, the worst by far of any National League team in 2012.  In fact, the Pirates allowed both the most stolen bases and recorded the fewest caught stealing of any team in MLB last year.

The biggest knock on Martin is that he has played a lot of games at catcher in his career and his body may begin breaking down sooner rather than later.  Perhaps there is something the Yankees know that the Pirates don’t, and that’s why the Yankees didn’t match the Bucs’ offer.

I kind of doubt it.  The Yankees were more than happy to commit a total of at least $22 million in 2013 to two over age 40 pitchers Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera, who pitched a total of only 83.2 innings between them last year.

Yes, Pettitte and Rivera have had great careers as Yankees, and that’s worth something.  However, the Yankees are a team that is built to win the World Series every year, and they and their fans are disappointed if they don’t.

While it’s true that if any two pitchers in baseball could have great years at, respectively, age 43 and 41, those pitchers are Rivera and Pettitte.  However, the odds that both of them will justify their salaries in 2013 is extremely unlikely. The Rivera and Pettitte signings are the kind that make a team’s fans happy during the off-season, but not so much once the new season actually begins.

If the Yankees were willing to throw this much money at two over age 40 pitchers in 2013, it’s a little hard to understand whey they felt that two years of Russell Martin at $17 million was too expensive.

The Current Pitcher Most Likely to Win 300 Games

November 5, 2012

Who is the active pitcher most likely to win 300 games?

Since Randy Johnson became the last 300 game winner, there’s been a lot of talk that we may have seen the last 300 game winner for at least the next couple of decades.  I don’t agree.  I think at least one active pitcher will win 300 for reasons I’ll elaborate on below.

At any rate, here is the list of the thirteen most likely candidates, based on their current win totals (and ages this past season).

Jamie Moyer 269 (49); Andy Pettitte 245 (40); Roy Halladay 199 (35); Tim Hudson 197 (36); CC Sabathia 191 (31); Mark Buerhle 174 (33); Justin Verlander 124 (29); Jered Weaver 102 (29); Felix Hernandez 98 (26); Cole Hamels/Zack Greinke 91 (28); Matt Cain 85 (27); Clayton Kershaw 61 (24).

For comparison purposes, here are the win totals for each of the last four 300-winners as of the end of each season from age 30 through 40:

Greg Maddux: 165; 184; 202; 221; 240; 257; 273; 289; 305; 318; 333. (Won 300th game year he was 38).

Roger Clemens: 163; 172; 182; 192; 213; 233; 247; 260; 280; 293; 310.  (Won 300th game year he was 40).

Tom Glavine: 139; 153; 173; 187; 208; 224; 242; 251; 262; 275; 290.  (Won 300th game year he was 41).

Randy Johnson: 81; 99; 104; 124; 143; 160; 179; 200; 224; 230; 246.  (Won 300th game year he was 45.)

Average: 137 (30); 152 (31); 165 (32); 181 (33); 201 (34); 219 (35); 235 (36); 250 (37); 268 (38); 279 (39); 295 (40).

Some notes here: I left out the previous generation’s 300-game winners (Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro; Gaylord Perry and Tom Seaver) because starting pitchers’ work loads are so much smaller than they were in the 1970′s.  Pitchers of that era made more starts each year (four-man instead of five-man rotations) and threw a lot more complete games, both of which gave starters more opportunities for decisions.

For example, the six 1970′s aces made 38 or more starts in a season 22 times (with Phil Niekro’s 44 starts in 1979 the high of this six man group), while the Maddux-Clemens-Glavine-Johnson quartet (the “Quartet”) made 37 starts in a season exactly once in their combined careers and 36 starts only six times.  By comparison, Roy Halladay in 2003 is the only time any of the active thirteen has made as many as 36 starts in a season.

However, 34 or 35 starts in a season is still fairly common. The NL in 2012 was the first time that a few as 33 starts led the league since the strike years of 1995 and 1994.

It goes without saying, that more starts and more complete games pitched mean more opportunities to rack up wins early in a pitcher’s career, which the 1970′s aces certainly did.  The Quartet on the other hand averaged an astounding 15.8 wins per year for the decade from age 31 through 40.  Today’s aces aren’t likely to make any fewer than 33 starts a season, since there has been no indication that any team will ever try a six-man rotation.  However, it seems clear that for any current pitcher to win 300, he will have to continue to be an ace throughout his 30′s.

Of the Quartet, Maddux and Clemens obviously won a lot more than 300 games, and Randy Johnson had to win 57 games after the season in which he was 40 (Phil Niekro (100) and Nolan Ryan (63) are the only 300-game winners with more wins after the season in which they were 40).  Thus, Tom Glavine’s numbers or the Quartet’s average, which is very similar, would seem to be the most relevant for comparison purposes.

As for the current crop of thirteen, we can readily eliminate the least likely candidates.  Jamie Moyer’s major league career is on extreme life support (while he hasn’t officially retired, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since last May 27th and hasn’t pitched in AAA since July 3rd).  Even if he can find another team that will give him a go in early 2013, it’s hard to believe he can last long enough to win another 31 games.

Andy Pettitte’s prospects of reaching 300 don’t look a whole lot better.  Even assuming that Pettitte returns to the Yankees in 2013, which at present seems more likely than not, he will have average 14 wins a season for the next four years (his average for the five seasons from 2006 through 2010 immediately preceding his first retirement) from age 41 to 44.  The only way I can see Pettitte sticking around that long is if he miraculously wins 20 in 2013 and gets it into his mind that he reasonably could win 300 if he hangs around.  Seems like slim odds.

We can fairly eliminate Tim Hudson, simply because he’s a year older than and a couple of wins behind Roy Halladay, who at 199 wins through age 35 is already 25 wins behind Glavine at the same age and 20 behind the Quartet average.  While Hudson has racked up 51 wins in the three-plus seasons since his major arm surgery in 2008 (Tommy John elbow ligament transplant), his innings pitched and strikeout rate were way down in 2012, which makes me think he’ll be hard pressed to make it to 40.

We can eliminate Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain and Clayton Kershaw for essentially the same reason.  Weaver is 22 wins behind Justin Verlander at the same age; and Hamels, Greinke and Cain are significantly behind Felix Hernandez at older ages.

Clayton Kershaw needs to win 37 games the next two seasons to be where Hernandez is now.  Let’s leave Kershaw out of the conversation until he does so.

Of the remaining five, Mark Buehrle seems the least likely to win 300.  In Buehrle’s defense, he has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, pitching at least 200 innings in all twelve of his seasons as a starting pitcher.  Even at his consistent pace of 13 wins a year, he could win 300 if he can become the next Tommy John/Jamie Moyer.

However, if Buehrle’s measurements (6’2″ and 245 lbs) are accurate, I just don’t see him making 30 starts a year every year for the next decade.  If any pitcher is likely to pitch well into his 40′s, it’s Roy Halladay, not Buehrle, simply because of their relative body types and the fact that Halladay is a much better pitcher.

Halladay missed about eight starts in 2012 due to what was initially called a shoulder strain but was later diagnosed as a latissimus dorsi strain.  Assuming that there isn’t anything wrong with his pitching shoulder or his spinal cord, there’s no reason why Halladay can’t return to top form in 2013 and beyond.  Even with his problems in 2012, he still struck out 7.6 hitters per nine innings and had 3.7 Ks for each walk.

In fact, I like Halladay’s chances of reaching 300 wins more than I like C.C. Sabathia’s, even though Sabathia is only eight wins behind Halladay, four years younger and ahead of every player in the Quartet at the same age.  I just can’t see a pitcher of C.C.’s size (6’7″ and 290 lbs) making 30 starts a season past the age of about 36.  In other words, I think the odds are better than even that Halladay will be a better pitcher at age 41 and 42, than Sabathia will be at age 37 and 38.

At age 31 in 2012, C.C. was already starting to show the strain.  He missed five starts this year due to a mid-season groin strain.   He’ll be 32 in 2013, the age at which players his size really begin to find it hard to stay in the line-up or rotation day after day or turn after turn.  If not in 2013, then certainly starting in 2014 or 2015, we will hear about C.C. missing time due to a groin strain, a knee or ankle injury or back problems each and every season.

That leaves Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.  I like Verlander’s chances of winning 300 more than either Halladay or Hernandez.

Verlander is approaching age 30 at the top of his game, he’s got a huge fast ball that has been clocked as high as 100 mph, and he strikes hitters out.  The latter two characteristics are particularly important when trying to project how long a pitcher’s career will last.   That’s no knock on Halladay or Hernandez, but the fact remains that Verlander’s strikeout rates are better.  If Verlander wins 16 games in 2013, which is fewer than he’s won in any of the last four seasons, he’ll be slightly ahead of Tom Glavine’s pace or the Quartet’s average through age 30.

Even if Felix Hernandez averages only 13 wins a season for the next three seasons (his average over the last three seasons playing for some meek Mariner teams), he will be significantly ahead of Verlander through age 29.  My concerns about Hernandez are two fold.

First, he’s thrown a lot of innings before the season in which he was 25.  History suggests that pitchers who do so are no longer around by their late 30′s.  In fact, Hernandez’s ERAs in 2011 and 2012 were up by almost a run compared to 2009 and 2010, although his strikeout rates have at least remained consistent.  He also looks like he’s more prone to putting on weight as he ages than Verlander.

At this moment, all of Verlander, Hernandez, Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia have a reasonable chance of winning 300 games.  It seems to me more likely than not that at least one of them will do so.

The Last Legal Spitball Pitchers

September 15, 2012

I just finished reading Spitballers by Charles F. and Richard B. Faber (McFarland & Co. 2006), which I purchased at a Salvation Army thrift store earlier this summer for a buck.  It was well worth my modest investment.

The book consists of short biographies of the 17 spitball pitchers who were grand-fathered by their major league teams when the pitch was banned prior to the 1920 season: Red Faber, Burleigh Grimes, Jack Quinn, Urban Shocker, Stan Coveleskie, Bill Doak, Ray Caldwell, Clarence Mitchell, Dutch Leonard, Ray Fisher, Dick Rudolph, Allen Sothoron, Phil Douglas, Allan Russell, Doc Ayers, Dana Fillingim and Marvin Goodwin.

Running the gamut from great stars/Hall of Famers down to players who aren’t remembered at all today, the book provides an excellent cross-section of what was going on and how the game was played between 1910 and 1930, in large part because the book does a good job of providing a lot of color to go along with the typical recitation of the players’ pitching stats during their major league (and minor league) careers.

One thing that struck me in reading the book was just how much of an issue alcoholism was in the game at that time (as it was before and as it has been since).  The book provides a number of interesting stories in that vein.

For example, Ray Caldwell was a pitcher with enormous talent who was frequently traded and fined because of his inability to follow team rules due to his alcoholism.  According to one source, after Caldwell was traded to the Cleveland Indians, his third major league team, late in 1919 season, the Tribe’s management gave him a 1920 contract which required him to Caldwell to get drunk the night following his starts (remember all games were played in the afternoon in those days before lights) and not report to the clubhouse the next day.  The next day thereafter he would run laps, followed by throwing batting practice the following day.  His regular start would follow on the fourth day, and the cycle would begin again.

This story is almost certainly apocryphal and likely written after the fact in order to explain Caldwell’s fine 20-10 record in 1920, his only 20-win season, as Cleveland went to its first World Series.  Nonetheless, the story reflects Caldwell’s reputation as a boozer.

A more tragic story is that of Shufflin’ Phil Douglas, another heavy drinker.  In 1922 Douglas got off to an excellent 11-3 start, while leading the league in ERA for the pennant-bound New York Giants.  However, in his last start on July 30th, he gave up five earned runs in seven innings pitched in a lop-sided 7-0 loss to the Pirates.

In the locker room after the game, Douglas got reemed out by Giants’ manager John McGraw.  Douglas had had it with McGraw’s abusive ways, slipped coach Jesse “the Crab” Burkett (the HOFer), who was assigned to tail Douglas that evening, and went on a bender that lasted several days.

A few days later Douglas was arrested by the police passed out at a party at an apartment not far from his home.  Upon taking him to the station, the police telephoned Giants’ management, who directed the police to take Douglas to a sanitarium on Central Park West.  Apparently the treatment for alcoholism in those days was pretty rough, and Douglas either escaped or was able to secure his release after a few days, at which point he got drunk again.

Eventually Douglas showed up at the Polo Grounds for a game that ended up being rained out, where he found a $224.30 bill for the sanitarium waiting for him.  McGraw was also there that afternoon, and he balled out Douglas again and fined him another $100.

This was more than Douglas could take, and still drunk he wrote a letter on Giants’ stationary to a friend of his on the St. Louis Cardinals, Les Mann, offering to abandon the Giants for the season if players on the Cardinals would make it worth his while.  Mann took the letter to Cardinals’ manager Branch Rickey, who reported it to McGraw and Commissioner Judge Landis.  Ultimately, McGraw saw to it that Douglas was permanently banned from organized baseball.

There was nothing unseemly about throwing the spit ball prior to the end of the 1919 season, and the pitch had been thrown by many great pitchers including Jack Chesbro and Big Ed Walsh.  Further, the Fabers make a convincing argument that the real reason MLB owners banned the pitch when they did was from a desire to increase offense and particularly home run hitting after the assault on the all-time single season home run record set by Babe Ruth in 1919.  Even so, two other spit ballers besides Douglas were ultimately banned for life by the MLB powers that be.

In early April 1921, Ray Fisher left the Cincinnati Reds to take a baseball coaching position at the University of Michigan.  Reds’ owner Garry Herrmann had low-balled Fisher the previous two off-seasons on Fisher’s contract, and Fisher demanded a three-year deal once Michigan had made him an offer.  Herrmann wouldn’t do it, and so Fisher accepted the Michigan job offer.

Sounds reasonable enough.  However, owners were used to treating players like chattels in those days, and when Fisher took the Michigan job, Herrmann saw to it that Judge Landis barred Fisher from organized baseball for life for purported contract jumping.  Bill James claims in the 1988 edition of his Historical Baseball Abstract that Landis needed Herrmann’s support at the time, but neither book explains why.

At the end of the day, Fisher went on to enjoy enormous success at the University of Michigan, coaching there for 38 years.  In fact, while the life-time ban remained in effect, it’s ridiculousness was made apparent by the facts that in the early 1930′s Fisher received in the mail a silver pass that entitled him to free admission(as a spectator) to any major league ballpark, and MLB did not protest when Fisher was hired first by the Milwaukee Braves and later by the Detroit Tigers as a Spring Training pitching instructor in the early 1960′s after he retired from the University of Michigan.  Still, his banishment was never officially rescinded.

Dutch Leonard was never officially banned, but he became a persona non grata after accusing all-time greats Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker of conspiring to fix a game near the end of 1919 regular season.  Leonard made this allegation in 1926, seven years after the fact, and he refused to appear before Judge Landis to testify.  However, Leonard had incriminating letters from Ty Cobb and “Smokey” Joe Wood, who was also accused of involvement in the fix, which letters Leonard sold either to American League President Ban Johnson and Detroit Tigers owner Frank Navin or to Commissioner Landis for around $20,000.

Given Leonard’s refusal to testify, insufficient evidence existed to find anyone guilty of a fix, particularly with respect to Tris Speaker.  However, Cobb admitted to the authenticity of his letter to Leonard, and if Wood’s letter was authentic, it strongly suggests that Leonard, Wood and Cobb bet on the Tigers to win the 9/24/19 game in question.

Leonard and Cobb played for the Tigers in that game, and Wood, no longer a pitcher, played right field for the Indians.  However, Wood went 3-4 with a walk in that game.

In another note, Bill Doak, who went 169-157 for three National League teams between 1912 and 1929, made far more money for inventing a better baseball mitt than he made in his long pitching career.  In 1919, while pitching for the Cardinals, Doak helped local sporting goods company Rawlings develop a fielders’ mitt which contained the first multi-thong web between the thumb and forefinger, thus creating the first deep pocket.  The “Bill Doak” model glove was so popular that Rawlings produced it until 1953, and Doak received royalties of as much as $25,000 a year.

While it’s unlikely that any further editions of Spitballers will be produced, given the relatively obscure subject matter, any further edition should contain biographies of the minor league pitching greats who had their potential major league careers blocked because they threw the wet one.

Spitballers’ introduction mentions Frank “Shelly” Shellenback, who went 295-178 in the Pacific Coast League between 1920 and 1938, but never got another shot in the majors after 1920 because his best pitch was a spit ball he wasn’t allowed to throw outside of the PCL.  Similarly, Buzz Arlett, before he became a great minor league slugger, was a PCL pitching ace who didn’t get a major league shot because his best pitch was a spitter.

Texas League ace Paul Wachtel was another player who didn’t get a shot in the majors because of his spitball, and Southern Association ace Rube Robinson was almost certainly in the same boat.  In fact, Robinson had been a successful major league pitcher in the 1910′s, but was not on a major league roster when the 1920 ban went into effect, leaving him to become the Southern Association’s all-time greatest winner, just as Wachtel was in the Texas League.

 

The Strangeglove Award

July 23, 2012

Dick “Dr. Strangeglove” Stuart was a slugging 1Bman in the 1950′s and 1960′s who had “the bad hands.”  Historically bad hands, in fact.

Between 1958 and 1964, Stuart led his league’s 1Bmen in errors committed seven consecutive seasons (NL five times, then AL twice).  His 29 errors for the 1963 Boston Red Sox is the most by a 1Bman in any season since 1919.

In honor of Dick Stuart, I thought it would be fun to award a “Strangeglove Award” to each active player who made the most errors in a season at his position at any time in his career.  Here is my list by position:

C Jason Kendall, 18 for the 1996 Pirates (I consider Kendall still active, as he is currently attempting a comeback with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the Royals’ AA club; Brian McCann (2010), Russell Martin (2007) and Dioner Navarro (2007) all made 14 errors in a season.)

1B Ryan Howard, 19 for the 2008 Phillies.  Another slugging 1Bman who struggles on defense.

2B Alfonso Soriano, 23 for both the 2002 Yankees and 2004 Rangers.  Given the fact that Soriano is now a terrible left fielder, it’s now a little hard to believe he once played second at the major league level.  Of course, he did.  Among players, still playing 2B, Rickie Weeks‘ 22 errors for the 2006 Brewers leads the way.

3B Mark Reynolds, 34 for the 2008 Diamondbacks.  Reynolds’ career as a major league starter is in jeopardy, as he doesn’t field well enough to start at third (career .928 fielding percentage) and doesn’t hit well enough to start at first (career .806 OPS).

SS Ian Desmond, 34 for the 2010 Nationals.  Desmond made only 23 errors in 2011 and is a pace to make about 21 errors in 2012, so his 2010 total looks to be a rookie year one-off.

LF Adam Dunn, 12 for the 2006 Reds.  Adam Dunn is widely considered the worst defensive outfielder in baseball, given his poor range and high error rates (Dunn leads all active left fielders with 60 career errors).  Now that he has adjusted to the American League after his lost 2011 season, he has at last found his true position: designated hitter.

Alfonso Soriano merits note here.  He made 11 errors as the Nationals’ left fielder in 2006 and again as the Cubs’ left fielder in 2009.  Soriano is currently third among both active 2Bmen and active left fielders for most career errors made at each of these positions.  Alfonso gets the “Stone Hands” device on his Strangeglove Award for his unmeritorious service at two different positions.

CF Carlos Beltran, 12 for the 1999 Royals.  Another high rookie year total; young players don’t just improve at the plate.  Even so, Beltran leads all active center fielders by a wide margin with 60 careers errors.

RF Vladimir Guerrero, 19 for the 1999 Montreal Expos.  (I’m also considering Bad Vlad still active, because he is not officially retired, and he did play eight games this year for the Blue Jays’ AAA team, the Las Vegas 51s, before being released at his request on June 12th when the Jays had not promoted him to the major league team.  He’s waiting around for some team to give him a call.  Justin Upton made 13 errors for the 2011 Diamondbacks.)

Bad Vlad had a great right field arm but made almost as many errors as assists in his career (125 errors and 126 assists).  His 125 career errors is almost twice that of Bobby Abreu (69), second most among active right fielders.

P Rick Ankiel (2000), Ramon Ortiz (2005), A.J. Burnett (2008) and Matt Garza (2011) each made seven errors in a season.  The last pitcher to make 10 errors in a season was Joe Kennedy for the 2002 Devil Rays. Kennedy died of heart failure during the 2007 off-season at age 28.


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