Big Arm: The Legend of Yasiel Puig Grows

Sports Illustrated has a great piece today on a throw rookie right fielder Yasiel Puig gunning down the speedy Andrelton Simmons trying to go from first to third on a base hit to right with a no hop throw right into 3Bman Luis Cruz‘s mitt.  The article also provides video of beautiful right field to third base throws from Ichiro in 2001, Jeff Francouer in 2011 and Bo Jackson in 1993.  It also links to video of Puig gunning out a base runner at first base for a double play a few days ago.

Roberto Clemente was before my time.  The best right field arms I remember from my youth were the Red Sox’ Dwight Evans and the Blue Jays/Yankees Jesse Barfield, both of whom used a classic over-the-top motion to throw line-drive bullets to the bases on balls hit into the right field corner.  Here is some video of Clemente (you have to get about 1:25 to see the throws), Evans and Barfield.  The Barfield video is probably the best.

ESPN Reports PED Suspensions Coming Soon

ESPN.com today reported that MLB is planning to suspend as many as 20 players, including most notably Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun, for using performance enhancing drugs supplied by Biogenesis of America.  Here is the full article if you want the details.

According to the report, Biogenesis’ principal Tony Bosch has agreed to spill the beans to MLB in exchange for MLB’s agreement to drop its lawsuit against Bosch (which may lack merit, but which Bosch cannot now afford to contest), indemnify Bosch against any liability arising out of his cooperation (i.e., MLB will foot the bill if players sue Bosch for what he says), and to put in a good word for Bosch if any law enforcement agency decides to bring charges against him.

The ESPN report also states that MLB will seek to impose 100 game suspensions against first-time PED offenders, even though the players’ collective bargaining agreement specifically allows for only 50 game suspensions for first offenses, on the theory that the first 50 games are for being caught and the second 50 games for lying to MLB about their involvement with Biogenesis during the recent investigation.

The players’ association will, of course, contest any such suspensions, of any length, through binding arbitration.  Even assuming that MLB can prove to an arbitrator (baseball arbitration uses a three-person panel, but the member selected by MLB always votes for MLB and the member selected by the union always votes for the union — in other words, the professional arbitrator agreed up by both sides decides the case) that it is more likely than not that the accused players purchased PEDs from Biogenesis, I don’t think there’s any way an arbitrator will uphold more than 50 game for suspensions for those not previously punished or any further suspensions for Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon or Yasmani Grandal, the players who have already been hit with 50 game suspensions for testing positive to PEDs they presumably got from Biogenesis.

Longer suspensions seem too much like double jeopardy, particularly when you take into account that every player who gets suspended for testing positive has implicitly lied that he was playing the game clean until he got caught.  The union will likely make the argument that some players would have been willing to tell MLB what they know about Biogenesis, but were afraid that their admissions would have resulted in additional punishment.  If MLB issues 100 game suspensions for first offenses, this argument will have a lot of merit.

However, I don’t see a lot of down-side to MLB for seeking longer suspensions.  100 game suspensions make it look like MLB is doing everything it can to stamp out steroid use, and if an arbitrator fails to uphold suspensions this long, MLB can always claim the arbitrator got it wrong.

Also, arbitrators have a reputation for “splitting the baby”, i.e., giving something to both sides so that neither side fires them after the hearing.  Asking for 100 game suspensions may help ensure that at least 50 game suspensions are upheld.

Finally, if MLB convinces the arbitrator that 100 game suspensions are appropriate, the players will have little recourse to the courts.  Courts are extremely reluctant to overturn arbitration decisions even if the arbitrator’s reasoning is weak, because the parties have agreed to let an arbitrator decide the matter, and courts don’t want labor matters added to their already over-burdened case loads.

The ESPN article’s suggestion that MLB may be able to make 100 game suspensions stick because minor leaguer Cesar Carillo got hit with such a suspension fundamentally misunderstands the concept of precedent.  As a minor leaguer, Carillo had no right or ability to challenge MLB’s decision through arbitration or otherwise.  His suspension has no bearing whatsoever on whether MLB can suspend major league players for 100 games under the major league players’ collective bargaining agreement, which both provides the arbitrator with his authority to render a decision and governs the decision the arbitrator ultimately reaches.

Minor leaguers have no collective bargaining agreement — as such, they are “at-will” employees, and management can fire or suspend them for any reason or no reason, except for a reason barred by law, such as race, color, religion, sex, age or national origin.  [Note that MLB passed a rule banning teams from signing women in the early 1950's -- almost certainly based on a fear that a renegade owner like Bill Veeck, who famously signed and played (one plate appearance) little person Eddie Gaedel, would sign a woman player as a stunt -- such a rule could not be enforced today, provided that the female player arguably had the talent to play in the major leagues -- there's at least a chance we'll one day see Eri Yoshida in a major league game.

Also, note that MLB discriminates against players based on age, at least in terms of how the statutes are generally applied, all the time.  If a player passes age 27, and his team thinks he won't contribute significantly in the future, they will release him.  Given the specific reality of professional baseball, where players can be shown to reach peak performance as a group at age 27, it's doubtful that any court would give serious consideration to an age discrimination lawsuit against a major league organization in terms of player personnel decisions.]

In a completely unrelated note, tonight is the 39th anniversary of the Beer Night Riot in Cleveland.  Someone in Cleveland Indians’ management had the brilliant idea of a promotion to sell ten ounce beers for ten cents a pop.  Fans were allowed to buy six ten-cent beers at a time (at AT&T Park in San Francisco fans are currently allowed to buy only two sixteen ounce beers at a time, each of which costs well in excess of $8 — it’s probably not much different at other major league parks today).  Although attendance was more than double the Indians’ normal draw, the ultimate result was exactly what you would expect, resulting in one of only four forfeited major league games since 1954.

I was familiar with the White Sox’ famous Disco Demolition Night fiasco later in the 1970′s (another of the four forfeited games), but I hadn’t heard of the Cleveland Beer Night Riot until today.  Here is Sports Illustrated’s commemorating article.

Remembering Pat Seerey

Yesterday’s post on three home run games inevitably led me to think of Pat Seerey, a tremendous slugger and strike out artist (wrong kind) of the World War II and slightly after years.  Here’s a SABR biography of the man’s career.

Pat was a slightly larger version of Hack Wilson — Seerey was 5’9″ tall and weighed between 195 lbs and 220 lbs during his playing career, usually much closer to the latter than the former.  Seerey was extremely popular despite never developing into a major star, because his home runs and strike outs were both prodigious and his body looked like those of a lot of his fans.  He was known in his playing days as both the “People’s Choice” and “Fat Pat.”

Seerey was clearly a man ahead of his time, the kind of player common in today’s sabermetrically informed game (Rob Deer, Mark Reynolds, and Adam Dunn all spring to mind, and I could come up with a lot more if I really stopped and thought about it).  However, he played in an era and for a manager (the Indians’ Lou Boudreau) where his skills were not fully appreciated.

Seerey was an all or nothing hitter, and he had two of the greatest games in baseball history.  On July 13, 1945, Seerey hit three home runs and a triple against the New York Yankees.  On June 18, 1948, after having been traded to the White Sox, Seerey hit four HRs in a ten inning game against the Philadelphia Athletics.  Seerey’s 31 total bases in his best two games have only been matched by Shawn Green and Willie Mays.  However, he also led the American League in strikeouts each of the four seasons in which he managed to get between 365 and 485 plate appearances, and he hit only 86 HRs total in his major league career.

How good a player Seerey really was is hard to say.  Most likely, in the right time and place, he could have had a major league career approximately twice as long as the one he actually had.  On the other hand, his career .224 batting average was terrible, particularly when you take into account the fact that three of his four seasons as a semi-regular were 1944 through 1946 — two war years and the year when most of the big stars came back after many years away and were rusty.

That being said, Seerey probably would have hit more HRs in a different era.  The baseballs used during the latter war years didn’t carry well, limiting HR run totals.  Seerey finished 8th, 6th, 4th and 9th in the AL in home runs in the four years he played semi-regularly (1944-1946 and 1948).  In today’s game, that would be enough to keep him on a major league roster despite the low batting average and strikeouts.

Three Home Runs in One Game – 2013 Update

The Cubs’ Dioner Navarro and the Nationals’ Ryan Zimmerman have each hit three home runs today, with Zimmerman still playing as I write this.  Almost three years ago I wrote a piece about three HR games, which needs some updating, in part because some crumbum deleted the wikipedia article which listed all players to have hit three in one game.  However, I was able to find this list, which is probably a copy of the original wikipedia page, which lists all players to have done it through August 1, 2009.  Here is baseballreference.com’s list of the players to hit three in one game since 1951.

You will note that three home run games have been particularly common in the last 20 years, when the PED-fueled offensive barrage reached its peak.

The original “Big Cat” Johnny Mize and Sammy Sosa are the all-time leaders with six different three home run games each. Joe Carter, Dave Kingman, Mark McGwire and Carlos Delgado each hit three or more in five different games.

Babe Ruth is still the only player to have two three home run games in the World Series, but as of October 22, 2011, Albert Pujols has joined the Babe with two three HR post-season games. On October 24, 2012, Pablo “Kung-fu Pando” Sandoval joined the Sultan of Swat and Prince Albert as the only players to hit three in a World Series game.

Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Aramis Ramirez are the active leaders with four 3-HR games.  Mark Teixeira and Alfonso Soriano have each had three such games.

In the Dead Ball Era between 1900 and 1920, not one player hit three home runs in a major league game.

Interestingly, Babe Ruth did not have a three home run game in any of the four years (1919, 1920, 1921 and 1927) in which he set the single season HR record.  Nor did Roger Maris (or for that matter Mickey Mantle) in 1961.

Mark McGwire did it twice and Sammy Sosa once in 1998, the year they decimated the old HR record.  Barry Bonds did it twice in 2001, and Sosa three more times that same year.  The feat was accomplished a ridiculous 22 times in 2001, the year with the most three home run games.

George Bell (1988), Tuffy Rhodes (1994) and Dmitri Young (2005) had their big days on Opening Day.

Now’s a good time for some trivia questions, the first from my original 2010 post and the second a new one.

(1)  who are the only two major league players to hit five home runs in a double-header?  This is a record that will probably never be matched again, since MLB teams no longer schedule double-headers.

(2) who hit the fewest career home runs for any player to hit three HRs in one game?

Answer (1): Stan “The Man” Musial for the Cardinals against the New York Giants on May 2, 1954; and Nate Colbert for the Padres against the Atlanta Braves on August 1, 1972.  Colbert was from St. Louis and claims to have personally attended the game in which Musial first accomplished the feat.   Whether or not he actually did, it’s a great story.

Answer (2): Since 1951, Bill Glynn, who hit three dingers on July 5, 1954, but finished his major league career with only ten.  Here’s a list of the players with the fewest career home runs to hit three in one game since 1951.  However, the actual correct answer appears to be Merv Connors, who hit three on September 17, 1938, but hit a total of only eight in his major league career.

There’s a lot more to the story than this, however.  Merv Connors was one of the all-time great minor league sluggers.  He hit 400 HRs in his minor league career, placing him fourth all-time.

In the year he hit three home runs in one game for the Chicago White Sox, Connors hit three other HRs and in only 24 games, he batted .355 with a 1.146 OPS.  He was only 24 years old that season, but he never played in the major leagues again.

No matter how bad his defense may have been, there’s no way a team doesn’t keep a player who hit like Connors did in his 1938 trial.  By way of comparison, no other player on that White Sox team had an OPS higher than .854.

My guess is that an injury was involved.  At any rate, he was sent back to Shreveport in the Texas League in 1939 and had a bad year, batting only .229.  He was even worse in 1940, another season in which he was almost certainly battling injuries.

That poor year got Connors sent down to the low minors in 1941.  He bounced back that year and also had a great 1942 campaign back in the Texas League, but he was now going on age 29.  1943 appears to be another season in which he battled injuries, and he was then drafted for the last two years of the War.

When Connors returned to professional baseball, he was 32 years old.  He spent most of the remaining eight years of his career playing in B and C leagues in Texas.  For what it’s worth, Merv Connors was born and died in Berkeley, California, the location in which I’m writing this post.  Needless to say, he attended Berkeley High School.

What Are the Chances Johan Santana Makes the Hall of Fame?

At this moment, probably not good.  Johan Santana had shoulder surgery today and, according to espn.com, will miss the entire season for the second time in three years.  He is vowing to pitch again in the major leagues, but whether he actually does remains to be seen.

Santana’s claim to be a Hall of Famer rests on the fact that he was indisputably the best pitcher in major league baseball for the five year period from 2004 through 2008.  During that span he led his league in wins, ERA, innings pitched or strike outs eight times, won two Cy Young Awards and could have, with a little more luck, won four Cy Young Awards.  Santana was clearly a better pitcher than Bartolo Colon in 2005, and there was very little daylight between his and Tim Lincecum‘s numbers in 2008.

However, Santana’s career wins total is presently 139, and that’s awfully few for a Hall of Fame candidate.

The (relatively) recent pitcher whom Santana most closely resembles among the All-Time Greats is Sandy Koufax.  Koufax finished his career with a record of 165-87 (.655 winning percentage), not a whole lot different from Santana’s 139-78 (.641 winning percentage).  Both were left-handed strike out pitchers with excellent command.

Koufax was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1972, his first year of eligibility.  The problem for Santana, of course, is that Koufax’s last five seasons were clearly better than Santana’s best five.  Koufax led the league in wins, winning percentage, ERA, IP and Ks 13 times his last five seasons.  Using the newer metric, wins above replacement, which should take into account the facts Koufax’s days were a much better time to be a pitcher than Santana’s and the Dodgers of Koufax’s era were better than Santana’s Twins/Mets, Koufax’s last five lead Santana’s best five 40.8 t0 35.4 according to baseball reference’s formula and an even larger 43.3 to 31.6 using fangraphs’ formula.

The Dodgers won three pennants and two World Series in Koufax’s last five seasons, and Koufax also threw four no-hitters (compared to one for Santana) and a perfect game in his career and set what was at the time the single season strike out record and is still only one behind the all-time record.

Something else that will hurt Santana’s future Hall of Fame chances is that unlike Koufax, who walked away from the game at his peak, we’ve had to watch Santana battle arm problems for the last four years, which has made it easier for people to forget just how good Santana was when he was at the top of his game.

In my mind, the biggest knock on Santana as an all-time great is that he was never a pitcher who finished what he started.  In his career, he has thrown only 15 complete games.  In comparison, Koufax completed 27 games in each of his last two seasons.

The game has changed a lot, of course, since Koufax’s day, and it’s highly unlikely that any major league pitcher will ever again complete as many as 27 games over the course of two consecutive major league seasons, let alone one.  Even so, Santana hasn’t completed a lot of games even by the standards of the current era.  Santana is tied with the much younger Matt Cain for 14th place among active pitchers and is miles behind Roy Halladay (66) and CC Sabathia (35) the active leaders.

Although complete games are much rarer than they once were, they are still awfully important since bullpen fatigue is a much bigger problem now than it was in the days when starters regularly finished games and the last couple of guys in the bullpen didn’t pitch a whole lot.  Aside from the fact that Roy Halladay’s wins total is much higher than Santana’s, his record of throwing complete games is going to make him a much more attractive candidate to Hall of Fame voters even if Halladay doesn’t do anything more in his career.

A number of Hall of Fame starting pitchers failed to win 200 games in their major league careers: Dizzy Dean (150-83; famously hurt his arm while pitching with a broken toe he suffered in the 1937 All Star Game), Addie Joss (160-97; he died two days after his 31st birthday of tubercular meningitis), Lefty Gomez (189-102; pitched on six Yankees’ teams that won the World Series), Dazzy Vance (197-140; established himself as a major league pitcher at age 31), Rube Waddell (193-143; led the AL in Ks six years in a row between 1902 and 1907), Big Ed Walsh (195-126; the last pitcher to win 40 games or throw 450+ innings in a season) and Happy Jack Chesbro (198-132; his 41 wins in 1904 is the most by any pitcher since the mound was moved back to 60 feet six inches in 1893).

What I take from this list is that Johan Santana will need to come back and match Dizzy Dean’s 150 career wins to have  a serious shot at making the Hall of Fame.

Michael Bourn Gets Burned

The Indians have reportedly signed center fielder Michael Bourn to a four-year deal for $48 million.  While Bourn won’t be going to bed hungry any time soon, this deal is a disaster for him and his agent Scott Boras, given that the majority opinion was that Bourn was the best true center fielder available in this year’s free agent class.

The obvious comparison is with B. J. Upton, who got five years at a guaranteed $75.25 million from the Braves earlier this off-season.  Yes, Upton is two years younger than Bourn, but Bourn has been much better last year and the last three years.

In 2012, fangraphs rated Bourn’s performance as worth $28.9 million and Upton’s at $15.0 million.  Over the last three seasons, fangraphs rated Bourn’s performance as worth $66.2 million and Upton’s at $49.9 million.

Strangely, fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan thinks both the Indians and Bourn got good deals out of this signing.  I just don’t see it.

Even taking into account that much of Bourn’s value comes from his center field defense and the facts that he’s getting older and his defense is likely to slide in the next few seasons, Bourn looks like the kind of player who will be a more valuable lead-off hitter in years to come.  Bourn still runs extremely well (ten triples and 42 stolen bases in 55 attempts last season), he hit with more power than ever in his career (his nine home runs nearly doubled his career total), and he gets on base fairly well for a lead-off hitter who runs as well as he does (.348 OBP last year, and between .341 and .354 the previous three years).

I will admit, however, that Bourn is not an ideal lead-off hitter, due to his relatively low on-base percentages.  Bourn has not scored 100 runs in any of the last four seasons despite averaging 677 plate appearances per year and leading the NL in stolen bases in three of those seasons.  Wade Boggs, who ran like a slug, scored 100 or more runs in seven consecutive seasons because he got on base roughly 45% of his plate appearances.

Even so, the fact that Bourn got less than four years and $60 million has to be seen as a failure by his agent Scott Boras.  In fact, it’s not clear at all that the Braves decided they wanted Upton over Bourn.  Early in the off-season, Bourn/Boras were throwing up pie-in-the-sky contract numbers, and the Braves simply went out and got the next best player, for what at the time seemed like a more reasonable amount.

Would the Braves back in November have been willing to give Bourn the same contract they gave Upton?  I don’t have much doubt they would have.

Boras has generally been so good at turning what looked like a bad situation into a huge contract that I wasn’t willing to write him off until a relatively bad contract was actually signed.  Well, that bad contract has now been signed.  Boras overplayed Bourn’s hand, and Bourn will have to live with it — he’ll be crying all the way to the bank.

The new draft pick compensation scheme agreed upon by the owners and players’ association looks like a win for the owners.  The Mets almost certainly would have given Bourn more than what the Indians won with, but they were concerned about losing a first round draft pick (and the signing bonus pool money) despite finishing with the tenth worst record in MLB last season, thanks to the Pirates’ failure to sign Mark Appel, another Boras client, with the eighth pick of last year’s draft.

While the owners probably would have struck a deal to let the Mets keep their 2013 first round pick, even reaching that stage required the players’ association to file a grievance after the Mets signed Bourn (you can’t file a grievance or any other legal claim for a hypothetical injury), and this fact likely impacted the contract the Mets were willing to offer Bourn.

2013 should be an interesting season for the Indians.  Even with the additions of Brett Myers, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Trevor Bauer, their pitching still looks pretty weak, although Bourn in center should help a lot in that regard.

At a minimum, Ubaldo Jimenez will have to bounce back to the pitcher he was in 2009 and 2010, Justin Masterson will have to return to 2011 form, and Zach McAllister has to improve on his fine 2012 rookie season for the Tribe to be successful in 2013.  Seems like a tall order.

As a final and largely unrelated note, the Felix Hernandez contract extension seemed like a good move for both sides, at least until medical tests suggested a problem with King Felix’s pitching elbow.  Despite all the talk of record-setting contracts, the extension really only promised Hernandez $139.5 million in new money, while giving him the ego bump of a record-setting contract and allowing the Mariners to control him through age 33, which is just about ideal for a pitcher of his caliber.

My biggest concern with a long-term extension for Hernandez was all the innings he’s pitched before age 25.  Needless to say, it’s not particularly surprising that his elbow is showing wear after all the innings he’s pitched in his career to date.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB 2013

Last summer I discovered that espn.com provides stats for what it calls “park factor”, which for purposes of this post means the ratio between the number of runs scored at a ballpark in any given season divided by the number of runs scored by said ballpark’s occupant (and its opponents) in away games that same season.  I wrote a post last June which evaluates each park’s park factor for the five years ending with the 2011 season.

As we approach the 2013 season (and the 2012 stats have long been in), it seems like a good time to update my earlier post incorporating the 2012 season.  Without further ado, here are the average park factors for all major league ballparks over the last six season (or less for the five ball parks that have opened more recently).

1.  Coors Field (Rockies) 1.301

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers) 1.148

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.134

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.131

5.  U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.111

6.  Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.086

7.  Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.080

8.  New Yankee Stadium (2009-2012) 1.066 [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008, 1.002]

9.  Great American Ball Park (Reds) 1.057.

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.044.

11.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.018

12.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

12.  Miller Park (Brewers) 1.010

14.  Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) 1.008

15.  Marlins Park (2012) 1.005  [Sun Life Stadium, 2007-2011, 1.038]

16.  Nationals Park (2008-2012) 0.998 [RFK Stadium, 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.986

18.  Target Field (Twins, 2010-2012) 0.983 [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

19.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.978

20.  Progressive Field (Indians) 0.960

21.  Angels Stadium 0.939

22.  PNC Park (Pirates) 0.936

22.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals) 0.936

24.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 0.919

25.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.917

26.  Dodger Stadium 0.915

27.  Citi Field (Mets, 2009-2012) 0.904 [Shea Stadium, 2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.889

29.  Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.864

30.  Petco Park (Padres) 0.808

The rankings didn’t change much from last year.  Among last year’s ten best hitters’ parks, U.S. Cellular Park, where the White Sox play, was apparently a great place to hit in 2012, moving it up two slots.  New Yankee Stadium was apparently not a great place to hit, moving it down two slots. Coors Field improved on its status as far and away the best hitters’ park in MLB.

The Marlins’ new park, which looked like a great place to hit in late June of last year, turned out to be only a little better than average for the full season — we’ll have to see how it plays over the next few seasons.

The Royals’ Kauffman Stadium moved up two slots, and the Phillies’ Citizens’ Bank Park fell two slots.  The Astros’ Minute Maid Park also fell two slots.  The Twins’ Target Field was a hitters’ park for the first time in its three year history, jumping it up four slots.  The Pirates and Giants and their respective opponents scored a lot more runs on the road in 2012, causing both PNC Park and AT&T Park to drop three slots.

With another year in the books, the Mets’ Citi Field is developing into as much of a pitchers’ park as the old Shea Stadium.  San Diego’s Petco Park remains the worst place to ply one’s trade as a major league hitter, but Seattle’s Safeco Field narrowed the gap considerably.

Baseball Is a Weird Game

Despite all the games that have been played and all the games teams play is a season, baseball can still surprise.  I’m not a huge fan of Jayson Stark (Barry Bonds bad, Roger Clemens good, until, whoops!, Clemens also likely used steroids), but this article is right up my alley.

Comments:  When a team sucks ass, it is not surprising that they play better after September call-ups when they start playing young players who at least have a reasonable chance of being better than the losers who posted a sub-.333 record up to that point.

It is surprising that the Mets never threw a no-hitter in their history until 2012, given the team has always pitched in a pitchers’ park and had Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and Dwight Gooden in their primes.  Not surprising that Johan Santana was the pitcher to finally get the Mets off the Schneid.

Gregor Blanco’s save of Matt Cain’s perfect game?  That and Blanco’s on-base percentage were the reasons why Blanco was playing a corner outfield position in the first place.  Did you see the World Series?

As for Adam Dunn, he is the epitome of the money-ball player.  Statistical analysis has shown that players who draw walks and hit for power can be valuable even if they hit for a low batting average and strike out a tremendous amount.  Dunn wasn’t great in 2012, but he still scored 87 runs and drove in 96 runs, even though (1) he hit .204; (2) struck out 222 times; and (3) ran like a slug.

When I was a kid, I collected baseball cards, and some of the cards I appreciated the most were those that set forth the new records set every season.  There is always something new in major league baseball, despite all the years of play.

More News from Japan’s NPB

As anyone who reads this blog regularly knows, I like to write about the goings-on/comings and goings of Japan’s NPB and South Korea’s KBO, the best two baseball leagues outside of North America (with the possible exception of Venezuela’s Winter League which draws a fair number of major league players, and considering the Caribbean part of North America).  My go-to source of late for NPB news is
http://yakyubaka.com
.  Here are some stories I found particularly interesting.

One of NPB’s best young starting pitchers Kenta Maeda is holding off on accepting the Hiroshima Carp’s 200 million yen (approximately $2.38 million) contract offer for 2013.  While the offer represents a 50 million yen raise from 2012, Maeda believes he should receive more based on his 2012 performance, in which he led all of NPB with a 1.53 ERA and was arguably NPB’s best starting pitcher.

The Carp’s argument is apparently that Maeda doesn’t deserve more because he pitched nine or more innings in a game fewer times in 2012 than he did in 2010, his break-out season. However, Maeda was credited with pitching six complete games in 2010, compared to five in 2012, and was credited with two shutouts each season.  Hard to see a meaningful difference there.

The relevance to major league baseball fans is that if Maeda is fighting with his team, the small revenue Hiroshima Carp, over money, the Carp may be more likely to post Maeda sooner rather than later, possibly as soon as next off-season.  As I’ve written before, because of his small stature, Maeda’s potential posting value is probably as high now as it will ever be.

Also, this report tends to give you an idea why so many NPB super-stars are eager to play in MLB, even if their first MLB contracts generally aren’t any larger than what they could make in Japan, not to mention the possible loss of lucrative Japanese endorsement opportunities.

The Yomiuri Giants announced the signing of 31 year old RHP and former New York Met Manny Acosta and are also in negotiations with Casey McGehee, who played (poorly) for the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees in 2012.  The Giants see McGehee as part of a possible platoon combination at 1B with John Bowker.

The Yomiuri Giants have also given their star catcher Shinnosuke Abe a 570 million yen ($6.77 million) contract for 2013, a 170 million yen raise from 2012 and the fourth largest single season salary in yen in NPB history.  Only Kazuhiro Sasaki’s 650 million yen salaries in 2004 and 2005 and Hideki Matsui’s 610 million yen salary in 2002 were larger.

Abe certainly deserves the money after leading all of NPB in batting average and OPS by large margins and helping the Giants win yet another Japan Series.  However, in a statement that only makes sense in the context of Japanese baseball, Yomiuri Giants’ manager Tatsunori Hara stated yesterday that he would like to be able to bat Abe fifth or sixth in the Giants’ line-up in 2013.

For what it’s worth, the sixth spot in the batting order gets roughly fifty fewer plate appearances a season than the third spot.  That’s the reason why the team’s best hitter usually bats no later than fourth and why you especially want your first three hitters to have high on-base percentages.

Former major league Kosuke Fukudome has announced to the two NPB teams courting him, the Hanshin Tigers and the Yokohama DeNA Bay Stars, that he envisions a three-year deal which, including incentives, would top out at 1.5 billion yen ($17.8 million).  Meanwhile, the Tigers and Bay Stars have each reportedly offered deals that would top out at around 600 million yen ($7.12 million) for the same three-year period.

It seems pretty obvious who is going to have to give here, but Fukudome’s “aspirational” numbers certainly make you think he must be a Scott Boras client. [Fukudome's agent is actually Joe Urbon.]

The Orix Buffaloes are miffed because the Milwaukee Brewers signed away 28 year old right-hander Alfredo Figaro, who pitched for Orix the last two seasons and whom Orix wanted to hold onto.

Finally, the Saitama Seibu Lions have announced their team slogan for the 2013 season.  It translates as, “Burly! Lions-ism 2013.”  The word “honebuto” apparently translates literally as “big-boned” or “stout” and can also be used to mean “robust” or “strong”  — I like my translation better, but even so, it definitely loses something in translation.

 

 

Two More Pitchers Going to South Korea’s KBO

Two more young pitchers are going to South Korea’s KBO for the 2013 season, RHP Charles Shirek and LHP Adam Wilk.  Both signed with the NC Dinos, an expansion team that will make its debut during the 2013 season.

Shirek looks like the kind of pitcher usually targeted by KBO teams.  He’s 27 years old and has never pitched in the majors but is coming off a strong year at AAA Charlotte, where he went 11-5 with a 3.65 ERA, 117 Ks in 170.1 IP and a Ks/BBs ratio slightly better than four to one.

While Shirek clearly knows how to pitch, he doesn’t look like a pitcher with significant major league prospects.  As such, a move to the KBO makes a lot of sense for his professional future.

Adam Wilk, on the other hand, has much better major league prospects, and it’s a little hard to understand why the Detroit Tigers were willing to sell him to a KBO team.  Although Wilk pitched poorly in three April starts for the Tigers, after being sent back down to AAA Toledo, he had an extremely promising season.

While Wilk went an unimpressive 7-11, all of his other numbers were terrific.  His 2.77 ERA was the 4th best in the International League, his 128 Ks was tied for 6th best, his 1.01 WHIP missed the league lead by a fraction of a point, and he had the best Ks/BBs rate of any of the 21 pitchers in the International League with at least 100 Ks.  Wilk also had fine minor league seasons in 2010 and 2011.

Wilk was only 24 last year, so, like I said, it’s hard to understand why he would give up on a major league career so young or why the Tigers were willing to let him go.  At any rate, the Tigers’ loss should be the KBO’s gain, unless Wilk blows out his arm.