Contemporary Minor League Aces

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a two-part series on contemporary minor league stars, who I defined as players with at least 4,000 career plate appearances in the high minors (the AAA and AA levels).  The two parts are here and here.

I thought it would also be fun to identify any recent pitchers who have had long and successful minor league careers.  Deciding on 1,200 career innings pitched in the high minors as a cut-off (which limits the list to starters and seems to be about the equivalent of my 4,000 plate appearances cut-off for position players), I was able to find only six contemporary pitchers who have accomplished this feat.  However, I was able to find an additional half a dozen or so pitchers who have come awfully close.

One final note before getting on with the list — for purchases of AA and AAA performance, pitching in the Mexican League counts, but pitching in other foreign leagues (Japan’s NPB, South Korea’s KBO, Taiwan, Italy, etc.) does not.  While this is somewhat arbitrary, it makes it easier to use baseball reference to find the qualifying pitchers, and what I am interested in doing is identifying American minor league stars, rather than Americans who have starred in Asia.  Without further ado:

1.  Nelson Figueroa (1,470 AAA innings pitched, 266.2 AA, 499 MLB).  Leading the list of contemporary minor league aces, Figueroa is a smallish right-hander (listed as 6’1″ and 185 lbs), who has a career minor league of 141-95, by far the most wins and best winning percentage of any recent minor leaguer I could find.  He has a career 3.70 minor league ERA with nearly three strikeouts for every walk allowed.

Nelson was originally drafted by the Mets in the 30th round of the 1995 Draft, and he was only just released in late April of this year by the Diamondbacks after getting off to a brutally bad start for the AAA Reno Aces a month shy of his 39th birthday.

Figueroa pitched in parts of nine major league seasons for six different teams mostly as a spot starter/long reliever.  While his career major league record of 20-35 is pretty bad, his career 4.55 ERA is hardly terrible.

2.  Andrew Lorraine (1,613 AAA, 7.1 AA, 175 MLB).  Once a 4th round draft pick out of Stanford, Lorraine has thrown more innings at the AAA level than any other recent pitcher.  His minor league career record was 110-89 with a 4.15 ERA.

A left-hander, Andrew pitched in parts of seven major league seasons for seven different teams and invariably got hit hard (career MLB ERA of 6.53).  He just didn’t have the stuff to have a successful major league career, but he clearly knew enough about pitching to excel at the AAA level.  His career ended in 2009 at age 36 playing in the now-defunct independent-A Golden Baseball League.

3.  Jared Fernandez (1,293.1 AAA, 504.1 AA, 108.2 MLB).  A big right-hander, Fernandez pitched more innings in the high minors than anyone else on my list.  He finished his minor league career in 2007 at age 35 with a 105-100 record and a 4.34 ERA.

Jared didn’t break through to the majors until age 29, and even though he pitched effectively for the Reds in 2002 and the Astros in 2003, he was already past age 30 both of those seasons.  Fernandez’s career ended with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s NPB.

4.  Chris George (1,244.1 AAA, 97.1 AA, 237.1 MLB).  The 31st overall pick in the 1998 Draft out of high school, George got numerous opportunities while in his early 20′s between 2001 and 2004 to establish himself as a starter for the Royals.  However, he didn’t have major league command, and he was also hit hard, posting a career major league 6.48 ERA with awful numbers at every pitching category.

Chris then settled in as a journeyman AAA starter.  He finished his minor league career in 2012 with an 85-87 record and a 4.70 ERA.

5.  Shane Loux (1,143.1 and counting AAA, 157.2 AA, 144 MLB).  Still pitching effectively, but unspectacularly, for the AAA Fresno Grizzlies this season at age 33, Loux is now 106-109 with a 4.46 ERA for his minor league career. He was once a second round draft pick.

Shane pitched in the majors in 2002-2003 for the Tigers, 2008-2009 for the Angels and last season for the Giants.  Last year’s performance, in which he posted a 4.97 ERA in 19 relief appearances, was probably his best at the major league level.

6.  Andy Van Hekken (740.1 AAA, 460.2 AA, 30 MLB).  A former 3rd round draft pick, Van Hekken’s only major league experience came in 2002 at the age of 22 when he went 1-3 in five starts for the Tigers.  His 3.00 ERA looked pretty good, but his other numbers suggested he wasn’t major league ready.

Andy returned to AAA and never made it back to the Show.  His career minor league record of 122-86 and 3.94 ERA look pretty good, but he never had any big years at AAA and had to use the independent-A Atlantic League several times to keep himself in professional baseball.

Andy went to South Korea to pitch in 2012, where he has established himself as one of the KBO’s top starters.  He currently has one of the five best ERAs in the young 2013 KBO season.

7.  R. A. Dickey (1,079 AAA, 108.2 AA, 1,113.1 MLB).  Undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list, Dickey’s career story is well known.  He makes this list with more than 1,000 AAA innings pitched because he has had essentially two professional pitching careers, the first as a regular pitcher and the second as a knuckleballer.

8.  Chris Michalak (1,048.2 AAA, 78 AA, 191.1 MLB).  A lefty, Michalak finished his professional career with the AAA Las Vegas 51′s in 2009 at age 38.  He finished with a minor league career record of 93-90 and a 4.14 ERA.

Michalak pitched fairly well for the Blue Jays and Rangers in 2001 and 2002, but he was already over 30 years old in 2001.

9.  Randy Keisler (1,027.1 AAA, 116 AA, 150.2 MLB).  Another lefty, Keisler has gone 99-77 with a 3.95 ERA in his minor league career.  He pitched last year in the Atlantic League at age 36.  Keisler pitched parts of six major league seasons for five different teams and almost always got hit hard, posting a career MLB ERA of 6.63 with lots of hits, home runs and walks allowed.

10.  Brandon Duckworth (1,014 AAA, 167 AA, 511 MLB).  Other than Nelson Figueroa and R. A. Dickey, the only pitcher on this list with a substantial major league career, Duckworth pitched eight seasons in the Show, going 23-34 with a 5.28 ERA mostly as a fifth and spot starter/long reliever.  As a minor leaguer, Brandon has a career 110-74 record with a 3.80 ERA.

Duckworth went to Japan late last season and pitched well enough in six starts to return to the Rakuten Golden Eagles this year at age 37.  After seven starts this year, he is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA, not good enough for a highly paid foreigner in pitching-dominated NPB.

11.  Brian Cooper (877 AAA, 319.2 AA, 167.2 MLB).  A small right-hander whose professional career ended in 2006 at age 31, Cooper appeared in a total of 13 games for the 2004 and 2005 Giants.  Given that the Giants are the team I follow, I’m a bit embarrassed to admit that I don’t really remember Cooper.

Cooper finished his minor league career with an 87-80 record and a 4.61 ERA.  He went 15-9 for the 2003 AAA Charlotte Knights, which is a lot for AAA — none of the players higher on this list managed to win 15 games in a single year at AAA.

12.  Adam Pettyjohn (788.1 AAA, 367.1 AA, 69 MLB).  Once a second round draft pick, Pettyjohn had a career minor league record of 85-74 with a 4.23 ERA.  He went 15-6 for the 2008 AAA Louisville Bats.

Pettyjohn pitched briefly for the 2001 Detroit Tigers and the 2008 Cincinnati Reds.  His last season was 2010 for the AAA Buffalo Bisons.

13.  Derek Lee (450.2 AAA, 732.2 AA, 0 MLB).  Last and certainly least on this list, Derek Lee is the only player on this list to pitch more innings at AA than AAA.  He never pitched in the majors, which likely also prevented him from making some real money playing in Asia.  He finished his minor league career in the Mexican League in 2008 at age 33 with a final record of 81-84 and 3.61 ERA.

Lee played twelve years of professional baseball and probably never made more than $50,000 a year, if that.  He’s also unlikely to get a pension in any amount, unlike almost all the other players on this list, who had major league careers just long enough to get some kind of a pension.  Somehow, it doesn’t seem fair.

If I’ve missed any pitchers who should be included in my list, please let me know.

Why So Many Strikeouts?

I read this article from SI’s Joe Lemire today in which he attempts to identify the reason why strike outs are so dramatically up this year (the Tigers’ and Red Sox’s staffs are both over a strikeout per inning pitched, which if they continue at their current rates through the end of the season would set the first and second all-time records). 

One thing I would add — one reason that batters strike out more now is that the gradual rise of sabrmetrics over the last 30 years has established that batting average is a lot less important to scoring runs than either on-base percentage or slugging percentage.  In other words, hitters can help an offense more by hitting a lot of home runs and drawing a lot of walks than hitting for a high average.

Lemire notes that fewer hitters now have a two-strike approach, seeking to hit home runs with two strikes rather than simply putting the ball in play.  As a result, he writes, strikeouts with two strikes are up 13% compared to 25 years ago.  What he fails to expressly note, although he provides the raw data, is that two-strike home runs are up 24% over the same period. 

24% more home runs at the cost of 13% more strikeouts?  That sounds like a great trade-off to me, particularly when you take into account the fact that major league defense has steadily improved throughout major league history, meaning that simply putting the ball in play is less likely to result in a base runner than it did 25 or more years ago.

Also, recognition of the value of walks, and the players who draw them, has increased in the last 30 years.  Strikeout rates have accordingly increased, because batters who take more close pitches, and thus draw more walks, also tend to strike out more.  Anyone who has ever watched baseball on TV knows that major league pitchers throw to the corners, and umpires are anything but consistent in calling those pitches balls or strikes.

SI’s Tom Verducci wrote an article about a month ago in which he attributes the increase in strikeouts to more pitchers mastering the cutter (cut fastball) and two-seam fastball combination.  Essentially, the two pitches are both fastballs which tail in opposite directions, making it extremely difficult for hitters to square up either pitch.

On the one hand, I find it hard to believe that major league pitchers haven’t been using different grips on their fastballs to get different movement for any less than the last 100 years.  On the other hand, I definitely think there is a higher percentage of major league pitchers today with both the arm strength and the training to throw different fastballs with sharp movement in different directions than ever before.  

For example, in Ball Four written in 1970, Jim Bouton strongly suggests that major league pitching coaches of his era were so mediocre that really helpful ones like Johnny Sain were the exception rather than the rule.  I doubt that’s the case today.  Not every pitching coach today may be as good as the Giants’ Dave Righetti, but most teams now have a pitching coach who can help any pitcher willing to listen.

Yet Another Comment on Home Plate Collisions

I recently listened to Giants announcer Mike Krukow discuss one of the key plays of the 2012 World Series: Giants catcher Buster Posey tagging out Tigers behemoth Prince Fielder at home plate in the top of the second inning of Game 2.   According to Krukow, Fielder was out on the play only because (Krukow believes) Fielder was trying to “light up” Posey at home plate, rather than sliding to the outside of the plate to score the run.  Krukow claimed that Fielder has a history of running over catchers when the opportunity presents itself.

As you know, Posey was seriously injured in a home plate collision in 2011.  When he returned to action, the Giants instructed Posey not to block the plate under any circumstances in the future because of his value to the team and its need for him to remain healthy.

Here is video of the play.  Posey sets up outside of the base line by a couple of feet, receives the throw and makes a swipe tag at Fielder sliding by.  Inexplicably, except for the possibility that Fielder was anticipating a collision and hoped to put his full 275 pounds into Posey, Fielder comes inside the base line before beginning his slide.  If he’d stayed outside of the base line and slid to make a hand tag of home plate, Fielder is safe, no question about it.

In fairness to Fielder, Krukow, as a former Giant and long-time team announcer with an old-school attitude towards on-field wrongs, has a long memory of Fielder flattening Giants’ catcher Todd Greene way back in 2006.  Another source I saw blame the next Tiger hitter Jhonny Peralta for failing to direct Fielder to slide away from Posey.  However, Fielder’s collision with Greene almost certainly shortened the latter’s career, as the collision reportedly damaged Greene’s shoulder causing him to tear his rotator cuff in Spring Training the next season.

MLB Suspends Tigers’ Minor Leaguer Cesar Carillo for 100 Games

MLB has suspended Tigers’ minor leaguer Cesar Carillo for 100 games in connection with the Biogenesis scandal.  Carillo received two fifty game suspensions, one for appearing in the Biogenesis documents reported on by the Miami New Times and another one for lying to MLB about knowing Biogenesis clinic owner Tony Bosch.

Carillo’s punishment appears to be a clear case of because-we-can.  Since Carillo is a minor leaguer not on a major league 40-man roster, he is not protected by the “just cause” provision of baseball’s collective bargaining agreement (“CBA”).  In other words, MLB can suspend Carillo without having to prove that it is more likely than not that Carillo actually used performance enhancing drugs, as it would have to do for any major league player covered by the CBA.  MLB almost certainly cannot do so, in large part because the Miami New Times has reportedly refused to provide MLB with the documents it purports show professional baseball players received performance enhancing drugs (“PEDs”) from Biogenesis.

There is something profoundly unsavory about Commissioner Selig going after the one guy who cannot defend himself from the allegations against him.  Carillo, who turns 29 in late April, is a marginal player who is unlikely ever to appear in the majors again, even without a 100 game suspension.

Although Carillo was once a first round draft pick (18th overall by the Padres in 2005), he pitched only briefly and poorly in the majors in 2009 (three starts, 13.06 ERA), and hasn’t pitched in the Show since.  In 2012, Carillo had a 6.23 ERA in a season split between A+Lakeland and AA Erie in the Tigers’ organization.  That doesn’t sound like a pitcher who is likely to pitch professionally anywhere but an independent-A league in 2013.

Presumably, Commissioner Selig wants to scare minor leaguers who are thinking about using PEDs that MLB will come down hard on them if there is even a whiff that they are juicing.  Even so, no one deserves to lose his livelihood or at least an opportunity at future major league success without it being shown that they are more likely than not to have cheated.

What’s galling to me about Carillo’s suspension is that it points out that MLB isn’t likely to do a damn thing about the major leaguers who are accused of receiving PEDs from Biogenesis.  The major leaguers are protected by the CBA, and MLB doesn’t presently have a shred of evidence that would stand up before an unbiased fact-finder.  At this point, there is no admissible evidence that the documents the Miami New Times reported on are genuine, let alone that any of the players named actually received PEDs from Biogenesis (mere receipt of banned PEDs, as opposed to proof of actual use, would likely be sufficient for an arbitrator to uphold a suspension).

It would be one thing if MLB had obtained enough evidence to successfully suspend a major league player or players named in the purported Biogenesis documents for use/receipt of PEDs and then suspended Carillo without a similar showing.  In that case, it could reasonably be concluded that the Biogenesis documents are authentic and accurate.

In the present circumstances, Carillo’s suspension only highlights the fact that MLB can’t prove any of the named major leaguers cheated and shows that MLB won’t hesitate to punish players without proof of wrong-doing if they can get away with it.

Somehow, I’m reminded of Stanley Kubrick’s classic film Paths of Glory.  We can’t prosecute any of the politicians or generals for sending thousands of men needlessly to their deaths, so let’s line up and execute a few privates to show that we mean business.

I also don’t think that arbitrary punishments are even necessary.  MLB has a great deal of well-wishers in Congress and state legislatures, who would look into the matter and apply pressure on prosecutors to take action after a few well-placed telephone calls from MLB.  Steroids are illegal without a prescription, and apparent use by major leaguers arguably entices young men and boys to use illegally in order to live out their major league dreams.  You can’t tell me that MLB couldn’t get action eventually by lighting a fire under the right legislators.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB 2013

Last summer I discovered that espn.com provides stats for what it calls “park factor”, which for purposes of this post means the ratio between the number of runs scored at a ballpark in any given season divided by the number of runs scored by said ballpark’s occupant (and its opponents) in away games that same season.  I wrote a post last June which evaluates each park’s park factor for the five years ending with the 2011 season.

As we approach the 2013 season (and the 2012 stats have long been in), it seems like a good time to update my earlier post incorporating the 2012 season.  Without further ado, here are the average park factors for all major league ballparks over the last six season (or less for the five ball parks that have opened more recently).

1.  Coors Field (Rockies) 1.301

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers) 1.148

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.134

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.131

5.  U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.111

6.  Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.086

7.  Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.080

8.  New Yankee Stadium (2009-2012) 1.066 [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008, 1.002]

9.  Great American Ball Park (Reds) 1.057.

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.044.

11.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.018

12.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

12.  Miller Park (Brewers) 1.010

14.  Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) 1.008

15.  Marlins Park (2012) 1.005  [Sun Life Stadium, 2007-2011, 1.038]

16.  Nationals Park (2008-2012) 0.998 [RFK Stadium, 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.986

18.  Target Field (Twins, 2010-2012) 0.983 [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

19.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.978

20.  Progressive Field (Indians) 0.960

21.  Angels Stadium 0.939

22.  PNC Park (Pirates) 0.936

22.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals) 0.936

24.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 0.919

25.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.917

26.  Dodger Stadium 0.915

27.  Citi Field (Mets, 2009-2012) 0.904 [Shea Stadium, 2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.889

29.  Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.864

30.  Petco Park (Padres) 0.808

The rankings didn’t change much from last year.  Among last year’s ten best hitters’ parks, U.S. Cellular Park, where the White Sox play, was apparently a great place to hit in 2012, moving it up two slots.  New Yankee Stadium was apparently not a great place to hit, moving it down two slots. Coors Field improved on its status as far and away the best hitters’ park in MLB.

The Marlins’ new park, which looked like a great place to hit in late June of last year, turned out to be only a little better than average for the full season — we’ll have to see how it plays over the next few seasons.

The Royals’ Kauffman Stadium moved up two slots, and the Phillies’ Citizens’ Bank Park fell two slots.  The Astros’ Minute Maid Park also fell two slots.  The Twins’ Target Field was a hitters’ park for the first time in its three year history, jumping it up four slots.  The Pirates and Giants and their respective opponents scored a lot more runs on the road in 2012, causing both PNC Park and AT&T Park to drop three slots.

With another year in the books, the Mets’ Citi Field is developing into as much of a pitchers’ park as the old Shea Stadium.  San Diego’s Petco Park remains the worst place to ply one’s trade as a major league hitter, but Seattle’s Safeco Field narrowed the gap considerably.

South Korea’s KBO Growing Fast

I’ve already written about how South Korea’s KBO is growing by leaps and bounds — the eight-team league drew seven million fans in 2012 for the first time; it was the fourth year in a row KBO set a new attendance record; and South Korea’s 2008 Olympics Gold Medal and 2009 World Baseball Classic (“WBC”) second place finish have shot baseball past soccer as South Korea’s most popular team sport.  Yet, I’m embarrassed to admit that until today I was unaware that the KBO is expanding.  KBO will add a ninth team, the NC Dinos in 2013 and a tenth team, as yet unnamed, to bring the league back to an even number of teams in 2015.

The NC Dinos will play in Changwon, a city in the far south of South Korea with a 2010 population of nearly 1.1 million.  Changwon is not far from Busan, home of the Lotte Giants, KBO’s most popular and successful franchise.  Clearly, the NC Dinos are hoping that some of the Lotte Giants’ magic will rub off on them.  Busan is a much better city, but the Dinos will have an immediate rivalry with KBO’s most popular team, which can only be good for the Dinos’ box office.

The Dinos wasted no time signing two American pitchers, Charles Shirek and Adam Wilk, whom I wrote about a week ago.  [KBO has a salary cap for foreign players of $300,000 per season, but reports are that KBO teams now routinely violate the cap to sign better American pitchers such as Wilk, Dana Eveland, Doug Slaten and in 2011 Justin Germano, to name only a few.  Bringing in the best available talent costs money, and with interest in the KBO exploding, the wealthier KBO teams are, not surprisingly, playing fast and loose with the rules.  Also, since KBO teams are limited to two foreign players each season, a salary cap makes little sense.]

However, baseball owners being baseball owners regardless of the country or continent, it took a push for KBO owners to agree to adding a tenth team, as obvious as such a move seems after expanding to nine teams in light of the obvious scheduling considerations.  The Korea Professional Baseball Players’ Association threatened to boycott various events, including the 2012 Gold Glove Awards and the 2013 All-Star Game, unless the KBO owners agreed to expand the league to ten teams.  That got the ball rolling.

The as yet unnamed tenth team will spend two years playing in KBO’s Futures League (which is actually two six-team minor leagues that develop talent for the eight-team Korea Baseball Championship League, which I have been referring to as the KBO), just as the NC Dinos did in 2011 and 2012.

P.S.  The SK Wyverns signed long and lean left-hander Chris Seddon.  Seddon will be 29 years old in 2013, and he’s yet another pitcher that more likely would have signed with a Japanese NPB team in years past based on his North American professional record, except perhaps for his unfortunately high home run rate.

P.P.S  A shout-out to myKBO.net, where most of the information for this post originated.

Two More Pitchers Going to South Korea’s KBO

Two more young pitchers are going to South Korea’s KBO for the 2013 season, RHP Charles Shirek and LHP Adam Wilk.  Both signed with the NC Dinos, an expansion team that will make its debut during the 2013 season.

Shirek looks like the kind of pitcher usually targeted by KBO teams.  He’s 27 years old and has never pitched in the majors but is coming off a strong year at AAA Charlotte, where he went 11-5 with a 3.65 ERA, 117 Ks in 170.1 IP and a Ks/BBs ratio slightly better than four to one.

While Shirek clearly knows how to pitch, he doesn’t look like a pitcher with significant major league prospects.  As such, a move to the KBO makes a lot of sense for his professional future.

Adam Wilk, on the other hand, has much better major league prospects, and it’s a little hard to understand why the Detroit Tigers were willing to sell him to a KBO team.  Although Wilk pitched poorly in three April starts for the Tigers, after being sent back down to AAA Toledo, he had an extremely promising season.

While Wilk went an unimpressive 7-11, all of his other numbers were terrific.  His 2.77 ERA was the 4th best in the International League, his 128 Ks was tied for 6th best, his 1.01 WHIP missed the league lead by a fraction of a point, and he had the best Ks/BBs rate of any of the 21 pitchers in the International League with at least 100 Ks.  Wilk also had fine minor league seasons in 2010 and 2011.

Wilk was only 24 last year, so, like I said, it’s hard to understand why he would give up on a major league career so young or why the Tigers were willing to let him go.  At any rate, the Tigers’ loss should be the KBO’s gain, unless Wilk blows out his arm.

Blue Jays Sign Melky Cabrera and Final Thoughts on AL MVP Award

So much for the Blue Jays not signing any more free agents after the big trade with the Marlins (which is still being reviewed by the Commissioner’s Office as I write this).  The Jays just announced signing Melky Cabrera for two years at a total of $16 million.

Melky took a big hit financially testing positive for steroids last summer, but he obviously isn’t going to go to bed hungry any time soon, thanks to the market for free agent market this off-season.  I’m a little surprised that Melky signed a two-year deal, since if he has a good 2013, he’d still be able to cash in on a longer term deal.

Either he thought it wise to get as big a contract as he could this off-season, or the Blue Jays insisted on a two-year deal, which seems unlikely.  Either way, it’s a good move for the Blue Jays, who at a discounted price get Melky for age 28 and 29.  Of course, we’ll see how well he plays without vitamin S in his system.

As for the AL MVP Award, I was a little sad that the vote wasn’t closer.  I guess I was rooting for a tie between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout and shared award, since they both had exceptional seasons.

I’m not really that surprised that the baseball writers of America chose Cabrera.  They have a keen grasp of history, and there’s no way to get around the fact that the Triple Crown is historically the ultimate symbol of offensive dominance, even if newer metrics for offensive performance are more accurate.  In fact, before Cabrera’s 2012 season, a lot of people wondered whether anyone would win the Triple Crown again, since expansion to 14 and 16 team leagues has made winning the award much more difficult.

All that being said, I don’t doubt that Trout’s superior defense made him the more valuable player in 2012.

The one thing I haven’t seen mentioned is any comparison of Trout’s 2012 season to Fred Lynn‘s 1975.  For those of you not old enough to remember, Lynn won the AL Rookie of the Year and MVP Awards that year, the first player in baseball history to do so and with Ichiro, the only players to do so.

Lynn hit .331 with power, led the AL in runs scored (as Trout did this year), and led the Red Sox to the World Series.  Lynn was a also awarded a Gold Glove for his play in center field that magical season.  The thing about Mike Trout is that he was two and half years younger this year than Lynn was in 1975.

The thing that kept Fred Lynn out of the Hall of Fame (at least so far) was injuries.  He had only three more seasons in his career after 1975 in which he managed to play in 140 or more games, although he played in the majors up through age 38.  Even so, he had a season in 1979 for which he finished 4th in the MVP but would almost certainly have won if the baseball writers then had the knowledge regarding performance they have available to them now.

Trout was healthy throughout 2012, but he was only 20 years old.  Pretty much the only thing likely to stop Trout from having a Hall of Fame career is future injuries.

The Current Pitcher Most Likely to Win 300 Games

Who is the active pitcher most likely to win 300 games?

Since Randy Johnson became the last 300 game winner, there’s been a lot of talk that we may have seen the last 300 game winner for at least the next couple of decades.  I don’t agree.  I think at least one active pitcher will win 300 for reasons I’ll elaborate on below.

At any rate, here is the list of the thirteen most likely candidates, based on their current win totals (and ages this past season).

Jamie Moyer 269 (49); Andy Pettitte 245 (40); Roy Halladay 199 (35); Tim Hudson 197 (36); CC Sabathia 191 (31); Mark Buerhle 174 (33); Justin Verlander 124 (29); Jered Weaver 102 (29); Felix Hernandez 98 (26); Cole Hamels/Zack Greinke 91 (28); Matt Cain 85 (27); Clayton Kershaw 61 (24).

For comparison purposes, here are the win totals for each of the last four 300-winners as of the end of each season from age 30 through 40:

Greg Maddux: 165; 184; 202; 221; 240; 257; 273; 289; 305; 318; 333. (Won 300th game year he was 38).

Roger Clemens: 163; 172; 182; 192; 213; 233; 247; 260; 280; 293; 310.  (Won 300th game year he was 40).

Tom Glavine: 139; 153; 173; 187; 208; 224; 242; 251; 262; 275; 290.  (Won 300th game year he was 41).

Randy Johnson: 81; 99; 104; 124; 143; 160; 179; 200; 224; 230; 246.  (Won 300th game year he was 45.)

Average: 137 (30); 152 (31); 165 (32); 181 (33); 201 (34); 219 (35); 235 (36); 250 (37); 268 (38); 279 (39); 295 (40).

Some notes here: I left out the previous generation’s 300-game winners (Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro; Gaylord Perry and Tom Seaver) because starting pitchers’ work loads are so much smaller than they were in the 1970′s.  Pitchers of that era made more starts each year (four-man instead of five-man rotations) and threw a lot more complete games, both of which gave starters more opportunities for decisions.

For example, the six 1970′s aces made 38 or more starts in a season 22 times (with Phil Niekro’s 44 starts in 1979 the high of this six man group), while the Maddux-Clemens-Glavine-Johnson quartet (the “Quartet”) made 37 starts in a season exactly once in their combined careers and 36 starts only six times.  By comparison, Roy Halladay in 2003 is the only time any of the active thirteen has made as many as 36 starts in a season.

However, 34 or 35 starts in a season is still fairly common. The NL in 2012 was the first time that a few as 33 starts led the league since the strike years of 1995 and 1994.

It goes without saying, that more starts and more complete games pitched mean more opportunities to rack up wins early in a pitcher’s career, which the 1970′s aces certainly did.  The Quartet on the other hand averaged an astounding 15.8 wins per year for the decade from age 31 through 40.  Today’s aces aren’t likely to make any fewer than 33 starts a season, since there has been no indication that any team will ever try a six-man rotation.  However, it seems clear that for any current pitcher to win 300, he will have to continue to be an ace throughout his 30′s.

Of the Quartet, Maddux and Clemens obviously won a lot more than 300 games, and Randy Johnson had to win 57 games after the season in which he was 40 (Phil Niekro (100) and Nolan Ryan (63) are the only 300-game winners with more wins after the season in which they were 40).  Thus, Tom Glavine’s numbers or the Quartet’s average, which is very similar, would seem to be the most relevant for comparison purposes.

As for the current crop of thirteen, we can readily eliminate the least likely candidates.  Jamie Moyer’s major league career is on extreme life support (while he hasn’t officially retired, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since last May 27th and hasn’t pitched in AAA since July 3rd).  Even if he can find another team that will give him a go in early 2013, it’s hard to believe he can last long enough to win another 31 games.

Andy Pettitte’s prospects of reaching 300 don’t look a whole lot better.  Even assuming that Pettitte returns to the Yankees in 2013, which at present seems more likely than not, he will have average 14 wins a season for the next four years (his average for the five seasons from 2006 through 2010 immediately preceding his first retirement) from age 41 to 44.  The only way I can see Pettitte sticking around that long is if he miraculously wins 20 in 2013 and gets it into his mind that he reasonably could win 300 if he hangs around.  Seems like slim odds.

We can fairly eliminate Tim Hudson, simply because he’s a year older than and a couple of wins behind Roy Halladay, who at 199 wins through age 35 is already 25 wins behind Glavine at the same age and 20 behind the Quartet average.  While Hudson has racked up 51 wins in the three-plus seasons since his major arm surgery in 2008 (Tommy John elbow ligament transplant), his innings pitched and strikeout rate were way down in 2012, which makes me think he’ll be hard pressed to make it to 40.

We can eliminate Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain and Clayton Kershaw for essentially the same reason.  Weaver is 22 wins behind Justin Verlander at the same age; and Hamels, Greinke and Cain are significantly behind Felix Hernandez at older ages.

Clayton Kershaw needs to win 37 games the next two seasons to be where Hernandez is now.  Let’s leave Kershaw out of the conversation until he does so.

Of the remaining five, Mark Buehrle seems the least likely to win 300.  In Buehrle’s defense, he has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, pitching at least 200 innings in all twelve of his seasons as a starting pitcher.  Even at his consistent pace of 13 wins a year, he could win 300 if he can become the next Tommy John/Jamie Moyer.

However, if Buehrle’s measurements (6’2″ and 245 lbs) are accurate, I just don’t see him making 30 starts a year every year for the next decade.  If any pitcher is likely to pitch well into his 40′s, it’s Roy Halladay, not Buehrle, simply because of their relative body types and the fact that Halladay is a much better pitcher.

Halladay missed about eight starts in 2012 due to what was initially called a shoulder strain but was later diagnosed as a latissimus dorsi strain.  Assuming that there isn’t anything wrong with his pitching shoulder or his spinal cord, there’s no reason why Halladay can’t return to top form in 2013 and beyond.  Even with his problems in 2012, he still struck out 7.6 hitters per nine innings and had 3.7 Ks for each walk.

In fact, I like Halladay’s chances of reaching 300 wins more than I like C.C. Sabathia’s, even though Sabathia is only eight wins behind Halladay, four years younger and ahead of every player in the Quartet at the same age.  I just can’t see a pitcher of C.C.’s size (6’7″ and 290 lbs) making 30 starts a season past the age of about 36.  In other words, I think the odds are better than even that Halladay will be a better pitcher at age 41 and 42, than Sabathia will be at age 37 and 38.

At age 31 in 2012, C.C. was already starting to show the strain.  He missed five starts this year due to a mid-season groin strain.   He’ll be 32 in 2013, the age at which players his size really begin to find it hard to stay in the line-up or rotation day after day or turn after turn.  If not in 2013, then certainly starting in 2014 or 2015, we will hear about C.C. missing time due to a groin strain, a knee or ankle injury or back problems each and every season.

That leaves Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.  I like Verlander’s chances of winning 300 more than either Halladay or Hernandez.

Verlander is approaching age 30 at the top of his game, he’s got a huge fast ball that has been clocked as high as 100 mph, and he strikes hitters out.  The latter two characteristics are particularly important when trying to project how long a pitcher’s career will last.   That’s no knock on Halladay or Hernandez, but the fact remains that Verlander’s strikeout rates are better.  If Verlander wins 16 games in 2013, which is fewer than he’s won in any of the last four seasons, he’ll be slightly ahead of Tom Glavine’s pace or the Quartet’s average through age 30.

Even if Felix Hernandez averages only 13 wins a season for the next three seasons (his average over the last three seasons playing for some meek Mariner teams), he will be significantly ahead of Verlander through age 29.  My concerns about Hernandez are two fold.

First, he’s thrown a lot of innings before the season in which he was 25.  History suggests that pitchers who do so are no longer around by their late 30′s.  In fact, Hernandez’s ERAs in 2011 and 2012 were up by almost a run compared to 2009 and 2010, although his strikeout rates have at least remained consistent.  He also looks like he’s more prone to putting on weight as he ages than Verlander.

At this moment, all of Verlander, Hernandez, Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia have a reasonable chance of winning 300 games.  It seems to me more likely than not that at least one of them will do so.

A Surprising Game

Of all the major sports, baseball provides the most surprises and unexpected outcomes, particularly when it comes to the post-season.

I thought the Giants behind Barry Zito would be extremely hard-pressed to beat Justin Verlander, the best pitcher in baseball at this moment, and the Tigers in Game 1 of the 2012 World Series.  Shows what I know.

Yes, the Giants had won Zito’s last 13 starts (streaks are made to be broken), and Zito had pitched the best game of his career in Game 5 of the NLCS (anyone starting in the play-offs is good enough to pitch one great game) — I still thought Zito had been bucking the law of averages long enough.  Turns out I was wrong.

As for Pablo Sandoval’s three home runs, that actually surprises me less than Zito’s terrific performance tonight.  While three home runs in a game is obviously something extremely rare, if you told a serious Giants fan that a Giant hit three home runs in a post-season game and that Giant was Pablo Sandoval, I don’t think they’d be particularly surprised.

Sandoval’s talent is enormous.  His bat is incredibly fast, and he is a bad ball hitter of Vladimir Guerrero/Yogi Berra caliber.

Here are the highlights of Game 1.  Note that none of the three pitches Pablo hit out of the park were bad pitches.

The first was a high 0-2 fastball.  The pitch got too much of the plate, and Verlander didn’t have his best fastball.  Even so, there are very few hitters in baseball that can square up a high 95 mph fastball like that one and drive it out to center field.

The second home run came when Pablo took a low and outside strike the other way to straight-away left field.  Not a perfect pitch, but hardly a mistake, and a pitch on which if the hitter drills it, the pitcher can only tip his cap.

The final home run came on an Al Albuquerque breaking pitch that had dipped below the strike zone when Pablo launched it.  It was not a pitch an average major league hitter would hit out of the park 400 feet to dead center.

If the Giants go on to win this World Series, I expect that fans outside of the Bay Area will become pretty sick of the Giants, the team having won two of the last three World Series.  Even so, one thing that should endear the Giants to baseball fans generally is that they are one of the only teams in baseball where players still have nicknames.

Gerald “Buster” Posey; Pablo “Kung Fu Panda” Sandoval; Brandon “Baby Giraffe” Belt; Tim “The Freak” Lincecum; Angel “Cabello Loco/Crazy Horse” Pagan; Marco “Blockbuster” Scutaro; Gregor “White Shark” Blanco; Brian “The Beard” Wilson; Melky “The Melk Man” Cabrera ["The Juice Man"?];  Matt “Big Sugar” Cain [what they called him in high school in Germantown, TN]; Hunter “The Reverend” Pence [I suggest "Crazy Eyes"]; Ryan “Vogey” Vogelsong [kinda lame]; Barry “Planet Zito/Captain Quirk” Zito [haven't heard these much since he became a big money Giant]; and Madison “Sad Mad” Bumgarner [this is my nickname I'm hoping will catch on -- see photo here: he looks like he's about to cry].

Unlike the old days when nicknames were largely the creation of sportswriters looking to add color to their reports of the day’s games, most of the current Giants’ nicknames were assigned by their teammates and then picked up on by sportswriters and fans.