The Best Hitting Pitchers in MLB Baseball 2013

The most popular posts I’ve written for this blog identify the best hitting pitchers currently active in major league baseball.  Given the level of interest, I have decided to update this piece annually, starting with this 2013 update.

As I’m sure you know, modern pitchers as a group can’t hit a lick.  The rise of the designated hitter, not only in the American League, but also it’s wide-spread use in the minors and in the college game is perhaps the biggest factor for the demise of pitchers who can hit, but it’s hardly the only one.

Pitchers simply don’t get as many opportunities to hit today because of the steady trend of using more and more relievers throwing more and more innings, which means starting pitchers get fewer opportunities to hit, and there are more opportunities for professional hitters to be used as pinch hitters.

Also, no matter what the old-timers tend to say, the level of major league play has gradually and steadily improved since the professional game started in the 1870′s, which means that pitchers, who make the major leagues solely based on their ability to pitch (which has been the norm since at least the early 1880′s and probably much earlier) have undergone a slow but steady decline as hitters by virtue of the relative improvement of pitchers (as pitchers), fielders and professional hitters, even though most major league pitchers were great hitters in high school.

Nevertheless, there are always a few pitchers in any era who can hit.  This post ranks current pitchers with at least 100 career major league at-bats in order to weed out the pitchers who just haven’t had enough at-bats for their career hitting stats to mean anything one way or another.  I may have missed a couple of qualifiers, but not more than a couple.

By today’s standards, a good-hitting pitcher is any pitcher with a career batting average above .167 or a career OPS over .400.  That’s really pretty terrible as hitters go, and it shows just how hard it is even for professional athletes who have played baseball all their lives to hit major league pitching if the players have not been selected for the major leagues based their ability to hit.

A few pitchers can swing the stick a little bit, though.  Here is my non-scientific list of the best hitting pitchers currently playing as we approach the start of the 2013 season:

1.  Micah Owings.  Micah Owings remains far and away the best hitting pitcher in baseball (at least if you exclude Rick Ankiel, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2004).  Micah’s career numbers have slipped a bit the last two season, likely due both to the law of averages and the facts that he isn’t a starter any more and didn’t pitch much last year due to an elbow injury.  His career batting average is currently .283 with an .813 OPS in 205 career ABs.

As I’ve written previously, it’s clear the Arizona Diamondbacks made a terrible mistake when, after drafting Owings in the 3rd Round of the 2005 Draft, they decided to develop him solely as a pitcher.

Owings is now 30 years old, and it’s doubtful he’ll ever develop into a good major league pitcher.  In fact, Owings just signed a minor league contract with the Washington Nationals with an invitation to 2013 Spring Training — the Nats signed Owings as a 1Bman, which strongly suggests they will try to develop him as a hitter.

Owings is getting old to switch positions, and it isn’t clear if he could still pitch if he and the Nats wanted him to.  He had arthroscopic elbow surgery last July and hasn’t pitched since last April.  Nonetheless, I still have a hope he’ll become the next Brooks Kieschnick, pitching, pinch-hitting and occasionally playing the field, depending on his team’s needs at the moment.

2.  Dontrelle Willis.  One of the things I always loved about Dontrelle was his ability to hit.  While he hasn’t played in the majors since 2011, he recently signed a minor league deal with the Cubs with an invitation to 2013 Spring Training.  In 2011 his last year of play, Willis batted .387 (12 for 31) with a 1.032 OPS to bring his career numbers up to .244 with a .665 OPS, respectively.

Dontrelle is now 31 years old, so it’s probably too late for him to make the switch to a position.  Too bad — as a 6’4″ lefty, he probably could have been major league 1Bman or corner outfielder if he’d been developed as a hitter.

3.  Mike Leake.  Leake remains the top young hitting pitcher in MLB.  He hit .295 with a .749 OPS last year, and despite his 2011 sophomore slump year, he still has a career batting average of .274 with a .656 OPS in 164 major league at-bats.  Leake walked only once last season, dropping his career on-base percentage to .308, but he hit for power for the first time in his career with two taters and five extra base hits.

I wonder what is more discouraging to a pitcher: walking the opposing pitcher or giving up an extra base hit.  Even though the latter would seem to have more value, the pitcher on the hill can better rationalize it: the batter got lucky, he’s a good-hitting pitcher, etc.  Everyone on defense slumps their shoulders when the pitcher walks his doppelganger.

4.  Carlos Zambrano.  In 2012 Big Z had his worst season swinging the ash since his 2002 rookie season, hitting only .176 with a .441 OPS.  Even so, he still has a career .238 batting average with a .636 OPS.

Carlos is an all-or-nothing hitter.  He has only ten walks to go with 240 strikeouts in 693 major league at-bats, but he has hit an impressive 24 HRs and 53 extra base hits.  He’s scored 75 runs and driven in another 71 in his career.  That’s better than a lot of middle infielders given the same number of at-bats.

5.  C. C. Sabathia.  He’s one of the most interesting players on this list.  Unlike all the other pitchers on this list, he’s only played one-half of one season in the National League.  As an American League hurler, he only gets to hit about two games a year, yet hit he does.  Despite going 0 for 5 at the plate in 2012, he’s still hitting .238 with a .598 OPS in 105 career at-bats.

Sabathia is tall and heavy set, which doesn’t sound like a recipe for a good-hitting pitcher, but obviously he’s just a baseball player pure and simple.  One wonders what kind of numbers he would put up playing three or four full seasons in a row in the NL.

6.  Yovani Gallardo.  The still young Brewers ace is another pitcher with pop at the plate.  Despite his worst season with the bat as a regular starting pitcher, Yovani still has a career batting average of .2o7 with a .599 OPS, thanks to ten HRs and 27 extra base hits in 305 career at-bats.

7.  Daniel Hudson.  After a break-out season in 2011 at age 24, Hudson blew out his elbow tendon after ten starts (nine for Arizona, one for AAA Reno) before having Tommy John surgery in early July.  Presumably, he won’t be back in action until after the 2013 All-Star Break.  At any rate, Hudson has a .229 batting average and a .573 OPS in 105 major league at-bats to date.

8.  Dan Haren.   Haren has a .223 lifetime batting average and .572 OPS.  In 2010, his last season in the NL, he hit .364 (20 for 55) with a .902 OPS. He signed with the Washington Nationals this off-season, so he’ll get the opportunity to hit regularly again in 2013.

Haren and Sabathia are the best arguments against the designated hitter.

9.  Adam Wainwright.  Wainwright’s hitting has dropped off his last two seasons (2010 and 2012), but he still has a career .204 batting average and .545 OPS in 367 major league at-bats.

Honorable Mention.  Livan Hernandez (career .221 batting average, .526 OPS, but his career might be over — he’d still like to pitch, but hasn’t been offered even a minor league contract as of early February 2013); Darren Oliver (.221, .545 — the latest word is he’ll be back with the Blue Jays in 2013, but he hasn’t had a plate appearance since 2006); Chris Narveson (.227, .522 — he missed most of 2012 to rotator cuff surgery, but the Brewers have signed him to a major league contract for 2013); Jason Marquis (.202, .508 — he hit well last year and he’s returning to the Padres for 2013); Manny Parra (.183, .500 — he signed with the Reds for 2013); Javier Vasquez (.204, .478 — rumor has it he’s interested in resuming his major league pitching career after a strong season in the Puerto Rican Winter League); Jordan Zimmerman (.190, .463); and Edwin Jackson (.200, .462).  As you can see, the best hitting pitchers get bad pretty fast.

Young Hitting Pitcher to Watch.  Stephen Strasburg.  He hit .277 (13 for 47) in 2012 with a .759 OPS, highest of any pitcher with at least 50 plate appearances, just beating out Mike Leake.  Strasburg’s career numbers are only .192 and .521, so it has yet to be determined whether he’s closer to 2012′s best hitting pitcher or the guy who started his career a pathetic-even-for-a-pitcher 1 for 26.

Carlos Zambrano started his career 1 for 32, before developing into a good-hitting pitcher, so I tend to think Strasburg will continue to hit well for a pitcher in future years.  One thing is for certain, however: with Strasburg, Haren, Zimmerman and possibly Micah Owings, the Nationals should have the best hitting pitching in MLB in 2013.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB 2013

Last summer I discovered that espn.com provides stats for what it calls “park factor”, which for purposes of this post means the ratio between the number of runs scored at a ballpark in any given season divided by the number of runs scored by said ballpark’s occupant (and its opponents) in away games that same season.  I wrote a post last June which evaluates each park’s park factor for the five years ending with the 2011 season.

As we approach the 2013 season (and the 2012 stats have long been in), it seems like a good time to update my earlier post incorporating the 2012 season.  Without further ado, here are the average park factors for all major league ballparks over the last six season (or less for the five ball parks that have opened more recently).

1.  Coors Field (Rockies) 1.301

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers) 1.148

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.134

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.131

5.  U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.111

6.  Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.086

7.  Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.080

8.  New Yankee Stadium (2009-2012) 1.066 [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008, 1.002]

9.  Great American Ball Park (Reds) 1.057.

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.044.

11.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.018

12.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

12.  Miller Park (Brewers) 1.010

14.  Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) 1.008

15.  Marlins Park (2012) 1.005  [Sun Life Stadium, 2007-2011, 1.038]

16.  Nationals Park (2008-2012) 0.998 [RFK Stadium, 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.986

18.  Target Field (Twins, 2010-2012) 0.983 [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

19.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.978

20.  Progressive Field (Indians) 0.960

21.  Angels Stadium 0.939

22.  PNC Park (Pirates) 0.936

22.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals) 0.936

24.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 0.919

25.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.917

26.  Dodger Stadium 0.915

27.  Citi Field (Mets, 2009-2012) 0.904 [Shea Stadium, 2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.889

29.  Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.864

30.  Petco Park (Padres) 0.808

The rankings didn’t change much from last year.  Among last year’s ten best hitters’ parks, U.S. Cellular Park, where the White Sox play, was apparently a great place to hit in 2012, moving it up two slots.  New Yankee Stadium was apparently not a great place to hit, moving it down two slots. Coors Field improved on its status as far and away the best hitters’ park in MLB.

The Marlins’ new park, which looked like a great place to hit in late June of last year, turned out to be only a little better than average for the full season — we’ll have to see how it plays over the next few seasons.

The Royals’ Kauffman Stadium moved up two slots, and the Phillies’ Citizens’ Bank Park fell two slots.  The Astros’ Minute Maid Park also fell two slots.  The Twins’ Target Field was a hitters’ park for the first time in its three year history, jumping it up four slots.  The Pirates and Giants and their respective opponents scored a lot more runs on the road in 2012, causing both PNC Park and AT&T Park to drop three slots.

With another year in the books, the Mets’ Citi Field is developing into as much of a pitchers’ park as the old Shea Stadium.  San Diego’s Petco Park remains the worst place to ply one’s trade as a major league hitter, but Seattle’s Safeco Field narrowed the gap considerably.

A Few More Minor Signings

The San Francisco Giants signed Chad Gaudin to a minor league contract today.  It seems like Gaudin has been around forever (he’s already a ten year major league veteran (he has a little over seven and half seasons of service time), but he’ll still be only 30 years old in 2013.

For years I thought that Gaudin would eventually put it together and become a highly valuable major league pitcher.  He’s always had good stuff, but he’s never had the command to become a star.  At age 30, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll finally turn that corner.

Nevertheless, it’s a good move for the Giants.  Gaudin almost certainly received an invitation to Spring Training, but the odds are heavy that he’ll start the 2013 season at AAA Fresno.  I’m fairly confident he’ll pitch well there, whether as a starter or out of the bullpen, and he’ll be a good fill-in if someone gets hurt on the major league staff.

Leftie Doug Slaten is going to South Korea.  He just signed with the SK Wyverns of the Korean Baseball Organization (“KBO”).  Wikipedia says that Slaten will be used as a starter there.  That’s an interesting decision, since Slaten has exactly one career start above the A+ level in a 13 year professional career.

However, Slaten is a better pitcher than most of the pitchers who sign with KBO teams, and I expect he’ll be an effective starter there.  If not, one would have to think he’ll become a top KBO reliever, since he’s coming off a 2012 season in which he posted a 2.11 ERA at AAA Indianapolis and a 2.77 ERA in ten appearances (13 IP) for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Slaten signing is another indication of how fast KBO is growing.  Slaten is pitcher who should have drawn interest from a Japanese NPB team at a substantially higher salary.  Even so, he will likely be paid at least in the top 15 of KBO players in 2013, although I have not yet seen any reports regarding his 2013 salary.  For a KBO team to be able to sign a pitcher as good as Doug Slaten suggests that KBO team revenues are increasing by leaps and bounds.

Meanwhile former New York Mets right-handed reliever Manny Acosta just signed with the Yomiuri Giants for a guaranteed $1.65 million with an additional $500,000 in potential performance bonuses.  Acosta posted a dreadful 6.46 ERA for the Mets in 2012, but his other numbers were nearly identical to 2011 when he had a 3.45, except for the fact that he issued a lot more walks in 2012.

Acosta is a year younger than Slaten (32 compared to 33 in 2013), but I doubt that Acosta has any more value to a major league club this off-season, since left-handed short men are always in great demand in MLB.  However, their career major league numbers suggest that Acosta has better stuff, and that is likely the reason he’ll probably be making three times as much money playing for the Yomiuri Giants in 2013 than Slaten will make playing for the SK Wyverns.  No one ever said that life if fair.

The Massive Blue Jays-Marlins Trade

It’s good that there are certain things in life you can rely on — the coming of Spring, old friends, and the Marlins dumping salary.

After spending mightily on free agents last Winter to fill their new ballpark and getting less than satisfactory short-term results, the Marlins have now traded away Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and two others in what can only be described as a massive salary dump.

The Marlins are reportedly throwing in $4 million into the deal, but that’s peanuts compared to the contracts the Blue Jays are taking on.  The Marlins got seven mostly young players, but none of them look to me like players the Marlins are certain to be able to build around in the future.  The Marlins received two Cubans in the deal, which will appeal to local fans in Miami, but I’m sure that Marlins’ fans, like any other, are more interested in seeing a winner.

It’s safe to say that the Blue Jays are now more or less done with deal-making this off-season.  Hard to believe they could have any more money to chase any but the cheapest free agents.

My educated guess is that the Blue Jays pulled the trigger on this deal because they believe that free agent prices are going to go so high this off-season, that by comparison Reyes’ and Buehrle’s large contracts from last off-season will suddenly seem like relative bargains.

In the case of Buehrle, this seems somewhat doubtful, since his four-year free agent contract is heavily back-loaded.  Even so, given that Buehrle’s 2012 season was exactly in line with his prior performances, it certainly is not outside the range of possibility that Buehrle could have commanded a three-year deal for $52 million, the amount left on his contract, if he were a free agent this off-season.

It seems fairly obvious that Jose Reyes is a better player than Yunel Escobar, but in terms of pay-for-play ratio I can see why the Marlins would much rather have Escobar.  Reyes is the better offensive player, although Escobar hit well in 2009 and 2011.

However, fangraphs says that Escobar provides better defense at SS.  Both players will be 30 in 2013.

Meanwhile, Reyes is owed $96 million through 2017, while the Marlins owe Escobar $5 million in 2013 and hold team options to pay Yunel $5 million in each of 2014 and 2015.  Josh Johnson has one year left on his contract at $13.75 million.

Another factor playing into the Reyes/Escobar swap is how Reyes will hit in the American League in 2013, where he’s never played before.

None of the prospects the Marlins receives looks like a can’t miss guy.  Infielder Adeiny Hechavarria will be 24 next year and he looks promising, but he doesn’t walk enough (.314 career minor league OPS).  20 year old LHP Justin Nicolino also looks promising but hasn’t pitched above the Class A Midwest League.  The same is true for 22 year old RHP Anthony DeSclafani.

Centerfielder Jake Marisnick was overmatched in AA ball at age 21 last year, but he definitely has some talent.  RHP Henderson Alvarez established himself as a major league starter in 2012 at age 22, but I doubt he has a bright future because he doesn’t strike anyone out (4.3 Ks/9 IP in MLB; 6.5 Ks/9 IP in the minors) and he isn’t a ground ball pitcher (37 HRs allowed in 251 major league innings pitched).

The trade certainly addresses the Blue Jays’ need for starting pitching and should improve their offense slightly at shortstop and at catcher.  They also get a useful jack-of-all-trades kind of player in Emilio Bonifacio.

Whether it’s enough to make the Blue Jays contenders in the AL East in 2013 remains to be seen.  Needless to say, the Marlins didn’t win with these players in 2012, despite also having the immensely talented young outfielder Giancarlo Stanton.  At least the trade gives Blue Jays’ fans something to be excited about going into 2013 and may help season ticket sales.

You can find links to the traded players’ stats at baseball-reference here.

The Current Pitcher Most Likely to Win 300 Games

Who is the active pitcher most likely to win 300 games?

Since Randy Johnson became the last 300 game winner, there’s been a lot of talk that we may have seen the last 300 game winner for at least the next couple of decades.  I don’t agree.  I think at least one active pitcher will win 300 for reasons I’ll elaborate on below.

At any rate, here is the list of the thirteen most likely candidates, based on their current win totals (and ages this past season).

Jamie Moyer 269 (49); Andy Pettitte 245 (40); Roy Halladay 199 (35); Tim Hudson 197 (36); CC Sabathia 191 (31); Mark Buerhle 174 (33); Justin Verlander 124 (29); Jered Weaver 102 (29); Felix Hernandez 98 (26); Cole Hamels/Zack Greinke 91 (28); Matt Cain 85 (27); Clayton Kershaw 61 (24).

For comparison purposes, here are the win totals for each of the last four 300-winners as of the end of each season from age 30 through 40:

Greg Maddux: 165; 184; 202; 221; 240; 257; 273; 289; 305; 318; 333. (Won 300th game year he was 38).

Roger Clemens: 163; 172; 182; 192; 213; 233; 247; 260; 280; 293; 310.  (Won 300th game year he was 40).

Tom Glavine: 139; 153; 173; 187; 208; 224; 242; 251; 262; 275; 290.  (Won 300th game year he was 41).

Randy Johnson: 81; 99; 104; 124; 143; 160; 179; 200; 224; 230; 246.  (Won 300th game year he was 45.)

Average: 137 (30); 152 (31); 165 (32); 181 (33); 201 (34); 219 (35); 235 (36); 250 (37); 268 (38); 279 (39); 295 (40).

Some notes here: I left out the previous generation’s 300-game winners (Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro; Gaylord Perry and Tom Seaver) because starting pitchers’ work loads are so much smaller than they were in the 1970′s.  Pitchers of that era made more starts each year (four-man instead of five-man rotations) and threw a lot more complete games, both of which gave starters more opportunities for decisions.

For example, the six 1970′s aces made 38 or more starts in a season 22 times (with Phil Niekro’s 44 starts in 1979 the high of this six man group), while the Maddux-Clemens-Glavine-Johnson quartet (the “Quartet”) made 37 starts in a season exactly once in their combined careers and 36 starts only six times.  By comparison, Roy Halladay in 2003 is the only time any of the active thirteen has made as many as 36 starts in a season.

However, 34 or 35 starts in a season is still fairly common. The NL in 2012 was the first time that a few as 33 starts led the league since the strike years of 1995 and 1994.

It goes without saying, that more starts and more complete games pitched mean more opportunities to rack up wins early in a pitcher’s career, which the 1970′s aces certainly did.  The Quartet on the other hand averaged an astounding 15.8 wins per year for the decade from age 31 through 40.  Today’s aces aren’t likely to make any fewer than 33 starts a season, since there has been no indication that any team will ever try a six-man rotation.  However, it seems clear that for any current pitcher to win 300, he will have to continue to be an ace throughout his 30′s.

Of the Quartet, Maddux and Clemens obviously won a lot more than 300 games, and Randy Johnson had to win 57 games after the season in which he was 40 (Phil Niekro (100) and Nolan Ryan (63) are the only 300-game winners with more wins after the season in which they were 40).  Thus, Tom Glavine’s numbers or the Quartet’s average, which is very similar, would seem to be the most relevant for comparison purposes.

As for the current crop of thirteen, we can readily eliminate the least likely candidates.  Jamie Moyer’s major league career is on extreme life support (while he hasn’t officially retired, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since last May 27th and hasn’t pitched in AAA since July 3rd).  Even if he can find another team that will give him a go in early 2013, it’s hard to believe he can last long enough to win another 31 games.

Andy Pettitte’s prospects of reaching 300 don’t look a whole lot better.  Even assuming that Pettitte returns to the Yankees in 2013, which at present seems more likely than not, he will have average 14 wins a season for the next four years (his average for the five seasons from 2006 through 2010 immediately preceding his first retirement) from age 41 to 44.  The only way I can see Pettitte sticking around that long is if he miraculously wins 20 in 2013 and gets it into his mind that he reasonably could win 300 if he hangs around.  Seems like slim odds.

We can fairly eliminate Tim Hudson, simply because he’s a year older than and a couple of wins behind Roy Halladay, who at 199 wins through age 35 is already 25 wins behind Glavine at the same age and 20 behind the Quartet average.  While Hudson has racked up 51 wins in the three-plus seasons since his major arm surgery in 2008 (Tommy John elbow ligament transplant), his innings pitched and strikeout rate were way down in 2012, which makes me think he’ll be hard pressed to make it to 40.

We can eliminate Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain and Clayton Kershaw for essentially the same reason.  Weaver is 22 wins behind Justin Verlander at the same age; and Hamels, Greinke and Cain are significantly behind Felix Hernandez at older ages.

Clayton Kershaw needs to win 37 games the next two seasons to be where Hernandez is now.  Let’s leave Kershaw out of the conversation until he does so.

Of the remaining five, Mark Buehrle seems the least likely to win 300.  In Buehrle’s defense, he has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, pitching at least 200 innings in all twelve of his seasons as a starting pitcher.  Even at his consistent pace of 13 wins a year, he could win 300 if he can become the next Tommy John/Jamie Moyer.

However, if Buehrle’s measurements (6’2″ and 245 lbs) are accurate, I just don’t see him making 30 starts a year every year for the next decade.  If any pitcher is likely to pitch well into his 40′s, it’s Roy Halladay, not Buehrle, simply because of their relative body types and the fact that Halladay is a much better pitcher.

Halladay missed about eight starts in 2012 due to what was initially called a shoulder strain but was later diagnosed as a latissimus dorsi strain.  Assuming that there isn’t anything wrong with his pitching shoulder or his spinal cord, there’s no reason why Halladay can’t return to top form in 2013 and beyond.  Even with his problems in 2012, he still struck out 7.6 hitters per nine innings and had 3.7 Ks for each walk.

In fact, I like Halladay’s chances of reaching 300 wins more than I like C.C. Sabathia’s, even though Sabathia is only eight wins behind Halladay, four years younger and ahead of every player in the Quartet at the same age.  I just can’t see a pitcher of C.C.’s size (6’7″ and 290 lbs) making 30 starts a season past the age of about 36.  In other words, I think the odds are better than even that Halladay will be a better pitcher at age 41 and 42, than Sabathia will be at age 37 and 38.

At age 31 in 2012, C.C. was already starting to show the strain.  He missed five starts this year due to a mid-season groin strain.   He’ll be 32 in 2013, the age at which players his size really begin to find it hard to stay in the line-up or rotation day after day or turn after turn.  If not in 2013, then certainly starting in 2014 or 2015, we will hear about C.C. missing time due to a groin strain, a knee or ankle injury or back problems each and every season.

That leaves Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.  I like Verlander’s chances of winning 300 more than either Halladay or Hernandez.

Verlander is approaching age 30 at the top of his game, he’s got a huge fast ball that has been clocked as high as 100 mph, and he strikes hitters out.  The latter two characteristics are particularly important when trying to project how long a pitcher’s career will last.   That’s no knock on Halladay or Hernandez, but the fact remains that Verlander’s strikeout rates are better.  If Verlander wins 16 games in 2013, which is fewer than he’s won in any of the last four seasons, he’ll be slightly ahead of Tom Glavine’s pace or the Quartet’s average through age 30.

Even if Felix Hernandez averages only 13 wins a season for the next three seasons (his average over the last three seasons playing for some meek Mariner teams), he will be significantly ahead of Verlander through age 29.  My concerns about Hernandez are two fold.

First, he’s thrown a lot of innings before the season in which he was 25.  History suggests that pitchers who do so are no longer around by their late 30′s.  In fact, Hernandez’s ERAs in 2011 and 2012 were up by almost a run compared to 2009 and 2010, although his strikeout rates have at least remained consistent.  He also looks like he’s more prone to putting on weight as he ages than Verlander.

At this moment, all of Verlander, Hernandez, Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia have a reasonable chance of winning 300 games.  It seems to me more likely than not that at least one of them will do so.

The D-Train Is Done

The Orioles have confirmed that Dontrelle Willis is retiring at age 30.  It’s a shame.

Willis is from Alameda, California, not far from where I live in Berkeley.  He took the National League by storm as a young pitcher and ended up being another cautionary tale of making a pitcher younger than age 25 throw too many innings, following in the footsteps of Larry Dierker and Dwight “Doc” Gooden, and many others.

The thing I always loved about Dontrelle was his enthusiasm when he was young and good.  He was one of the best hitting pitchers of the last ten years — a little over a month ago, I rated him the second best hitting pitcher in MLB, behind only Micah Owings, based on reasonably objective criteria — and he clearly loved to play the game when the talent was bursting out of his uniform.

It doesn’t sound like Dontrelle had much of that old enthusiasm left.  After a mediocre performance as the Reds’ second-half fifth starter in 2011 (Dontrelle went 1-6 with a 5.00 ERA in 13 starts), he signed with the Phillies last December for around a $1 million, according to baseballtraderumors.com and wikipedia.

However, the Phillies released him in the middle of Spring Training (mid-March), which makes me think that Dontrelle had signed to a minor league contract or that Dontrelle had problems with the Phillies’ idea to re-invent him as a relief pitcher.  Dontrelle latched on with the Orioles, but after three April relief appearances Dontrelle asked for his release. The O’s wouldn’t give it too him, instead putting him on the reserve list.

Part of the dispute was apparently over whether or not Dontrelle was willing to be a relief pitcher, the Orioles, like the Phillies, thinking that’s where his future lay.  Dontrelle threatened to file a grievance through the players’ union, and he and the O’s ended up working out a deal where he would get another chance to start.  He made exactly one start for AAA Norfolk on June 28, gave four runs, all earned, in 2.2 innings, and has now apparently decided to retire.

There has been a lot of speculation about why Dontrelle flamed out, including being treated for an anxiety disorder in early 2009, but I’ll always believe that most of it was the fact that Dontrelle threw so many innings between age 21 and 24 (853.2, including his minor league innings).  I suspect that the anxiety disorder was in some part due to Dontrelle’s loss of confidence after his arm had given out.

One thing is for certain: Dontrelle’s command, at least based on his walk totals, deteriorated steadily after the 2005 season, until it reached the point where he wasn’t a major league pitcher any more.

Dontrelle was good just long enough to cash in with a three-year $29 million contract the Tigers gave him before the 2008 season.   Let’s hope he has some of that money left to take care of his young family now that his baseball career is apparently over.

If Dontrelle still has a love for the game, he could always go to the Independent-A Atlantic League for $3,000 to $5,000 a month and try to re-invent himself as position player.  His career major league .244 batting average and .665 OPS suggests there is an outside chance he could do it.  At this moment, though, that doesn’t seem very likely.

Dontrelle, I will miss you, and I hope your life beyond professional baseball is a good one.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB

I recently discovered that espn.com now provides stats for what it calls “park factor,” that is, the ratio between runs scored per game in each park divided by the runs scored in the home team’s away games.

Espn.com provides “park factor” for each season going back to 2001.  However, individual seasons don’t mean all that much, because like individual players, ball parks are subject to wild swings from one year to the next in terms of whether more or less runs are scored at home than away.  For all but the best (Coors Field) and the worst (Petco Park) parks, it’s only over a period of years that you can determine which parks are really the best and worst for offense.

I used a five-year sample (2007 through 2011), which still may not be enough, but it’s certainly more meaningful than one or two seasons.  Here are the best to worst hitters’ parks in terms of runs scored for the period from 2007 through 2011:

1.  Coors Field (Rockies)  1.245

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers)  1.141

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks)  1.127

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox)  1.116

5.  Wrigley Field (Cubs)  1.098

6.  New Yankee Stadium (Yankees)  1.091  [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008,  1.002]

7.  U.S. Cellular Park (White Sox)  1.079

8.  Camden Yards (Orioles)  1.061

9.  Great American Ballpark (Reds)  1.046

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers)  1.039

11.  Sun Life Stadium (Marlins) 1.038  [Marlins Park,which opened this year, has a whopping 1.271 park factor so far in 2012.]

12.  Citizens Bank Park (Phillies)  1.016

13.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals)  1.015

14.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

15.  Minute Maid Park (Astros)  0.996

16.  Nationals Park (Nationals)  0.992  [RFK Stadium, where the Nats played 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Miller Park (Brewers) 0.978

18.  Progressive Field (Indians)  0.972

19.  PNC Park (Pirates)  0.970

20.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.966

21.  Angels Stadium (Angels)  0.964

22.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.953

22.  Target Field (Twins) 0.953  [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

24.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals)  0.926

25.  Dodger Stadium (Dodgers) 0.925

25.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s)  0.925

27.  Citi Field (Mets)  0.914  [Shea Stadium,  2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Safeco Field (Mariners)  0.899

29.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.892

30.  Petco Park (Padres)  0.799

Not many surprises among the five best and five worst places to hit, although I personally was a bit surprised that Tropicana Field is the second-worst park to hit in over the last five years, excluding the now demolished Shea Stadium.

(No sadness about Shea’s destruction from these quarters — of the seven ballparks in which I’ve watched major league baseball games, Shea was the worst, easily beating out Candlestick Park, the Oakland Coliseum and the Vet in Philadelphia for that dubious distinction.  What made Shea the worst was that the sight lines were terrible: the lower deck seats were too flat, making it hard to see over the person in front of you; and the upper deck seats were too steep, making you feel like you were watching the game from outer space.  That said, I saw some good baseball there, including a Darryl Strawberry walk-off home run off John Franco in 1988 that may have been the hardest hit ball I’ve ever seen in person.)

The biggest surprises in my mind are that neither Minute Maid Park or Turner Field were higher on the list.  I remember the early days of Minute Maid, when it was named Enron Field and commonly referred to as Ten-Run Field because of all the scoring there.  Similarly, Atlanta has always been a good place to hit, regardless of the ballpark played in, due to the hot summer weather and the 1,000+ feet of elevation at which the city sits.

From 2002 through 2006, the previous five year period, Minute Maid Park had a park factor of 1.031, which would be 12th on the list above, a good, but not great, place to hit.  Turner Field, however, was a terrible place to hit from 2002 through 2006, coming in at 0.866.  Actually, Turner Field was a good place to hit in 2001 and in 2004 through 2006 (on average), but was absolutely horrendous (0.655 and 0.651) in 2002 and 2003.

As mentioned above, parks vary greatly from year to year, so perhaps ten-year averages would be more meaningful than five year averages.  Of course, ballparks also change over time (five new parks have opened since the start of the 2008 season), which means that parks rise and fall somewhat depending on whether or not the new parks are good places to hit.

Of the five new parks noted above, all except for Target Field appear to be better hitters’ parks than the ball parks they replaced, and Target Field so far looks to be only a little bit worse than the Metrodome.

This isn’t particularly surprising: baseball fans like offense, so new parks presumably are constructed with offense in mind.  Also, the new parks are generally baseball-only and are much cozier than the multi-use stadiums that were constructed between 1960 and 1985, the previous generation of baseball stadiums.  Less foul territory means fewer foul-outs and thus higher batting averages and more runs scored.

The Best Hitting Pitchers in Baseball – 2012 Update

One of the most popular posts I’ve written for this blog identifies the best hitting pitchers currently active in major league baseball.  More than a year and half have passed since the original post, so it seems like a good time to update the piece.

As I’m sure you know, modern pitchers as a group can’t hit a lick.  The rise of the designated hitter, not only in the American League, but also it’s wide-spread use in the minors and in the college game is perhaps the biggest factor for the demise of pitchers who can hit, but it’s hardly the only one.

Pitchers simply don’t get as many opportunities to hit today because of the steady trend of using more and more relievers throwing more and more innings, which means starting pitchers get fewer opportunities to hit, and there are more opportunities for professional hitters to be used as pinch hitters.

Also, the level of major league play has gradually and steadily improved since the professional game started in the 1870′s, which means that pitchers who make the major leagues solely based on their ability to pitch (which has been the norm since at least the early 1880′s) have undergone a slow but steady decline as hitters by virtue of the relative improvement of pitchers, fielders and professional hitters.

Nevertheless, there are always a few pitchers in any era who can hit.  I looked at current pitchers with at least 100 career major league at-bats (with one except which I note below) in order to weed out the pitchers who just haven’t had enough at-bats for their career hitting stats to mean anything one way or another.  I may have missed a couple of qualifiers, but not more than a couple.

By today’s standards, a good hitting pitcher is any pitcher with a career batting average over .167 or a career OPS over .400.  That’s really pretty terrible, and it shows you just how hard it is even for professional athletes who have played baseball all their lives to hit major league pitching if the players have not been selected for the major leagues based their ability to hit.

A few pitchers can swing the stick a little bit, though.  Here is my non-scientific list of the best hitting pitchers currently playing:

1.  Micah Owings.  Micah Owings remains far and away the best hitting pitcher in baseball (at least if you exclude Rick Ankiel, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2004).  Micah’s career numbers have slipped a bit in the last year and half, likely due both to the law of averages and the fact that he isn’t a starter any more.  His career batting average is currently .283 with an .812 OPS in 205 career ABs.

As I wrote last time, it plainly appears the Arizona Diamondbacks made a terrible mistake when, after drafting Owings in the 3rd Round of the 2005 Draft, they decided to develop him solely as a pitcher.

Owings turns 30 in late September, and it’s doubtful he’ll ever develop into a good major league pitcher.  Now that he’s a relief pitcher, his career ERA has dropped below 5.00, but his ratios aren’t impressive.  At his age, he’s probably too old to return to the minors and convert into a position player.  Nonetheless, I still have a hope he’ll become the next Brooks Kieschnick.

2.  Dontrelle Willis.  One of the things I always loved about Dontrelle was his ability to hit.  While he’s pitched his way out of the majors again, he’s never lost that sweet stroke.  In 2011, he .387 (12 for 31) with a 1.032 OPS to bring his career numbers up to .244 with a .665 OPS.

Dontrelle is 30 now, so if he makes it back to the majors, it will be as a pitcher.  Too bad — there’s really no doubt (in my mind at least) about his ability as a hitter.

3.  Carlos Zambrano.  Carlos is off to a terrible start with the ash this year (1 for 14 so far), even as his pitching has improved.  Even so, he still has a career .238 batting average with a .635 OPS.

Carlos is an all-or-nothing hitter.  He has only ten walks to go with 235 strikeouts in 673 major league at-bats, but he has hit an impressive 23 HRs and 52 extra base hits.  He’s scored 72 runs and driven in another 69 in his career.  That’s better than a lot of middle infielders given the same number of at-bats.

4.  Mike Leake.  He’s the top young hitting pitcher in baseball.  He’s currently hitting .271 with a .634 OPS in a little over 100 at-bats.  He doesn’t have as much power as most of the guys on this list, but he has a fine (for a pitcher) .312 on-base percentage.

I wonder what is more discouraging to a pitcher: walking the opposing pitcher or giving up an extra base hit.  Even though the latter would seem to have more value, the pitcher on the hill can better rationalize it: the batter got lucky, he’s a good-hitting pitcher, etc.  Everyone on defense slumps their shoulders when the pitcher walks his doppelganger.

5.  C. C. Sabathia.  He’s one of the most interesting players on this list.  Unlike all the other pitchers on this list, he’s only played one-half of one season in the National League.  As an American League hurler, he only gets to hit about two games a year, yet hit he does.  He now has exactly 100 career ABs, and he’s hitting .250 with a .627 OPS.

Sabathia is tall and heavy set, which doesn’t sound like a recipe for a good hitting pitcher, but obviously he’s just a ball player pure and simple.  One wonders what kind of numbers he would put up playing three or four full seasons in a row in the NL.

6.  Yovani Gallardo.  The still young Brewers ace is another pitcher with pop.  He’s off to a terrible 1 for 17 start this season, but still has career numbers of .2o8 with a .614 OPS and nine HRs and 23 extra base hits in 255 career ABs.

7.  Daniel Hudson.  The Diamondbacks’ young right hander has only 99 career at bats, but I gave him a place on this list because he’s hitting .242 with a .602 OPS.

8.  Dan Haren.  .225 lifetime batting average, .576 OPS.  In 2010, his last season in the NL, he hit .364 (20 for 55) with a .902 OPS.  Haren and Sabathia are the best arguments against the designated hitter.

9.  Adam Wainwright.  Wainwright’s hitting has dropped off recently, but he still knows how to help his own cause.  He currently has a career .215 batting average and .564 OPS.

Honorable Mention.  Livan Hernandez (.222 batting average, .528 OPS); Darren Oliver (.221, .545); Chris Narveson (.227, .522); Jason Marquis (.197, .499); Manny Parra (.183, .500) and Javier Vasquez (.204, .478 — he could still make a comeback).  As you can see, the best hitting pitchers get bad pretty fast.

Young Hitting Pitcher to Watch.  Stephen Strasburg.  He’s off to a 6 for 16 start this season with three doubles and home run giving him a 1.162 OPS for the young season.  His career numbers are only .167 and .496, so it has yet to be determined whether he’s closer to the guy hitting like a fool in 2012 or the guy who started his career a pathetic-even-for-a-pitcher 1 for 26.

Some Things Never Change

I just read this article on espn.com reporting how Ozzie Guillen just told reporters he gets drunk in the hotel bar after every game win or lose.  He says he’s been doing it the last 25 to 28 years.

Nothing new about that, for Ozzie or anyone else in baseball.  Ballplayers and the men who manage and coach them have had more than their fair share of boozers for as long as the game has been paid professionally.

Traditionally, players are not allowed to drink in the hotel bar, because that is where the manager and the coaches drink.  Drunk players and drunk manager often results in fights, since at least a few players on every team are going be upset about their playing time (or something else) at any given time.  Just think Billy Martin, who famously fought with pitcher Dave Boswell in an alley outside the Lindell A.C. bar in Detroit in 1969 while Martin was managing the Minnesota Twins (Martin claims he popped Boswell after Boswell knocked out teammate Bobby Allison).  A decade later, Martin famously knocked out marshmallow salesman Joseph Cooper in a Minneapolis hotel bar.

Ozzie says he drinks at the hotel bar, because it keeps him from getting into trouble elsewhere, which is probably true and, like I said, the reason why players generally aren’t allowed to drink in the hotel bar.  The upshot is that players have to drink somewhere else, usually places where there are more young women (one of the perks of being a professional athlete).

MLB has now banned and tests for use of amphetamines and other stimulants.  Since the 1950′s when diet pills containing amphetamines became widely available, greenies and alcohol have gone hand in hand.  As I said, ballplayers have always drunk a lot, and greenies were a great way to play at or near 100% after a heavy night of drinking.  The greenies also facilitate more drinking, because the only way to sleep after taking a greenie for a night game is by taking downers or drinking.

I suspect there is on the whole less drinking now than there once was in baseball.  The repercussions of getting pulled over for drinking and driving are much more serious than they were 30 or more years ago.  Plus, there’s so much more money in baseball and so much more information in society in general about the adverse health effects of drinking that more players are taking better care of themselves and consequently drinking less.

All that being said, there’s still a lot of drinking in baseball and there always will be.  With most games played at night now, most players don’t have to report to work until 2:00 or 3:00 o’clock in the afternoon.  That leaves plenty of time to celebrate or commiserate after each night’s ballgame.

Fausto Carmona Is Really Roberto Hernandez Heredia

Yet another Latin player is discovered to be someone other than whom he claimed to be.  Actually, that’s not entirely fair — most of these guys (Pedro Feliz, Miguel Tejada and Vladimir Guerrero, to name three) only get caught lying about their age, shaving off a year or two in order to draw more interest and bigger signing bonus when first scouted.

The trend, if Juan Carlos Oviedo nee Leo Nunez and now Carmona/Heredia can be considered a trend, is to assume another (younger) person’s identity.  This is almost certainly the result of requiring foreign players to provide more substantive documentation as to their birth dates now than was once the case, making it easier to pretend to be someone else entirely — someone who, of course, just happens to be younger.

Carmona/Heredia shaved three years off his age (he’s really 31 instead of his previously claimed 28), which for some reason strikes me as particularly egregious.  Three years is a long time in the life of a professional baseball player and claiming to be that much younger than he really is is little less than fraud. That third year bothers me a lot more than the first one or two.

That being said, now that he’s a proven major league starter, it really doesn’t make that much difference.  The Indians recently picked up a $7 million option on Carmona/Heredia and at either age — 28 or 31 — he’s probably going to be the same pitcher in 2012.  On the other hand, if the Indians had committed to a long-term deal on this pitcher, they’d have every right to seek cancellation on the grounds of intentional misrepresentation.

When this happened to Nunez/Oviedo last September (the truth coming out, that is), he was forced to leave the country and return to the Dominican Republic with three weeks left in the season.  The Marlins immediately put him on the restricted list, which meant they didn’t have to pay him while he didn’t play, and they could also fill his space on the active and 40-man rosters.

As a practical matter, I don’t know if the Marlins withheld his last three weeks of salary.  I certainly hope they did since he couldn’t play as a direct result of being a liar and a cheat.  Yeah, I know these guys are just trying to escape grinding poverty in their home countries, but misrepresenting the facts in order to get a better deal is still lying and cheating.

The latest on Nunez/Oviedo is the Marlins just gave him a $6 million contract for 2012.  However, it’s anyone’s guess when the U.S. government will let him back in the country, and the article linked to above suggests the Marlins won’t be paying Nunez/Oviedo anything until he’s back in uniform.

That may be awhile.  Not surprisingly, since 9/11 the U.S. government has taken a very dim view of individuals who have entered this country pretending to be someone they’re not. Also, even though he and Carmona/Heredia are big-shot, million dollar ballplayers, and not potential terrorists, the government takes a long time to straighten these kinds of situations out.

Frankly, it’s one time I’m glad the wheels of government churn at a snail’s pace.  Taking a year or more to let these guys back into the U.S. would send a strong message about the consequences for prospects who lie about who they are.  Nunez/Oviedo and Carmona/Heredia don’t deserve special treatment the rest of us don’t get just because of they’re well-paid ballplayers.