Contemporary Minor League Aces

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a two-part series on contemporary minor league stars, who I defined as players with at least 4,000 career plate appearances in the high minors (the AAA and AA levels).  The two parts are here and here.

I thought it would also be fun to identify any recent pitchers who have had long and successful minor league careers.  Deciding on 1,200 career innings pitched in the high minors as a cut-off (which limits the list to starters and seems to be about the equivalent of my 4,000 plate appearances cut-off for position players), I was able to find only six contemporary pitchers who have accomplished this feat.  However, I was able to find an additional half a dozen or so pitchers who have come awfully close.

One final note before getting on with the list — for purchases of AA and AAA performance, pitching in the Mexican League counts, but pitching in other foreign leagues (Japan’s NPB, South Korea’s KBO, Taiwan, Italy, etc.) does not.  While this is somewhat arbitrary, it makes it easier to use baseball reference to find the qualifying pitchers, and what I am interested in doing is identifying American minor league stars, rather than Americans who have starred in Asia.  Without further ado:

1.  Nelson Figueroa (1,470 AAA innings pitched, 266.2 AA, 499 MLB).  Leading the list of contemporary minor league aces, Figueroa is a smallish right-hander (listed as 6’1″ and 185 lbs), who has a career minor league of 141-95, by far the most wins and best winning percentage of any recent minor leaguer I could find.  He has a career 3.70 minor league ERA with nearly three strikeouts for every walk allowed.

Nelson was originally drafted by the Mets in the 30th round of the 1995 Draft, and he was only just released in late April of this year by the Diamondbacks after getting off to a brutally bad start for the AAA Reno Aces a month shy of his 39th birthday.

Figueroa pitched in parts of nine major league seasons for six different teams mostly as a spot starter/long reliever.  While his career major league record of 20-35 is pretty bad, his career 4.55 ERA is hardly terrible.

2.  Andrew Lorraine (1,613 AAA, 7.1 AA, 175 MLB).  Once a 4th round draft pick out of Stanford, Lorraine has thrown more innings at the AAA level than any other recent pitcher.  His minor league career record was 110-89 with a 4.15 ERA.

A left-hander, Andrew pitched in parts of seven major league seasons for seven different teams and invariably got hit hard (career MLB ERA of 6.53).  He just didn’t have the stuff to have a successful major league career, but he clearly knew enough about pitching to excel at the AAA level.  His career ended in 2009 at age 36 playing in the now-defunct independent-A Golden Baseball League.

3.  Jared Fernandez (1,293.1 AAA, 504.1 AA, 108.2 MLB).  A big right-hander, Fernandez pitched more innings in the high minors than anyone else on my list.  He finished his minor league career in 2007 at age 35 with a 105-100 record and a 4.34 ERA.

Jared didn’t break through to the majors until age 29, and even though he pitched effectively for the Reds in 2002 and the Astros in 2003, he was already past age 30 both of those seasons.  Fernandez’s career ended with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s NPB.

4.  Chris George (1,244.1 AAA, 97.1 AA, 237.1 MLB).  The 31st overall pick in the 1998 Draft out of high school, George got numerous opportunities while in his early 20′s between 2001 and 2004 to establish himself as a starter for the Royals.  However, he didn’t have major league command, and he was also hit hard, posting a career major league 6.48 ERA with awful numbers at every pitching category.

Chris then settled in as a journeyman AAA starter.  He finished his minor league career in 2012 with an 85-87 record and a 4.70 ERA.

5.  Shane Loux (1,143.1 and counting AAA, 157.2 AA, 144 MLB).  Still pitching effectively, but unspectacularly, for the AAA Fresno Grizzlies this season at age 33, Loux is now 106-109 with a 4.46 ERA for his minor league career. He was once a second round draft pick.

Shane pitched in the majors in 2002-2003 for the Tigers, 2008-2009 for the Angels and last season for the Giants.  Last year’s performance, in which he posted a 4.97 ERA in 19 relief appearances, was probably his best at the major league level.

6.  Andy Van Hekken (740.1 AAA, 460.2 AA, 30 MLB).  A former 3rd round draft pick, Van Hekken’s only major league experience came in 2002 at the age of 22 when he went 1-3 in five starts for the Tigers.  His 3.00 ERA looked pretty good, but his other numbers suggested he wasn’t major league ready.

Andy returned to AAA and never made it back to the Show.  His career minor league record of 122-86 and 3.94 ERA look pretty good, but he never had any big years at AAA and had to use the independent-A Atlantic League several times to keep himself in professional baseball.

Andy went to South Korea to pitch in 2012, where he has established himself as one of the KBO’s top starters.  He currently has one of the five best ERAs in the young 2013 KBO season.

7.  R. A. Dickey (1,079 AAA, 108.2 AA, 1,113.1 MLB).  Undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list, Dickey’s career story is well known.  He makes this list with more than 1,000 AAA innings pitched because he has had essentially two professional pitching careers, the first as a regular pitcher and the second as a knuckleballer.

8.  Chris Michalak (1,048.2 AAA, 78 AA, 191.1 MLB).  A lefty, Michalak finished his professional career with the AAA Las Vegas 51′s in 2009 at age 38.  He finished with a minor league career record of 93-90 and a 4.14 ERA.

Michalak pitched fairly well for the Blue Jays and Rangers in 2001 and 2002, but he was already over 30 years old in 2001.

9.  Randy Keisler (1,027.1 AAA, 116 AA, 150.2 MLB).  Another lefty, Keisler has gone 99-77 with a 3.95 ERA in his minor league career.  He pitched last year in the Atlantic League at age 36.  Keisler pitched parts of six major league seasons for five different teams and almost always got hit hard, posting a career MLB ERA of 6.63 with lots of hits, home runs and walks allowed.

10.  Brandon Duckworth (1,014 AAA, 167 AA, 511 MLB).  Other than Nelson Figueroa and R. A. Dickey, the only pitcher on this list with a substantial major league career, Duckworth pitched eight seasons in the Show, going 23-34 with a 5.28 ERA mostly as a fifth and spot starter/long reliever.  As a minor leaguer, Brandon has a career 110-74 record with a 3.80 ERA.

Duckworth went to Japan late last season and pitched well enough in six starts to return to the Rakuten Golden Eagles this year at age 37.  After seven starts this year, he is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA, not good enough for a highly paid foreigner in pitching-dominated NPB.

11.  Brian Cooper (877 AAA, 319.2 AA, 167.2 MLB).  A small right-hander whose professional career ended in 2006 at age 31, Cooper appeared in a total of 13 games for the 2004 and 2005 Giants.  Given that the Giants are the team I follow, I’m a bit embarrassed to admit that I don’t really remember Cooper.

Cooper finished his minor league career with an 87-80 record and a 4.61 ERA.  He went 15-9 for the 2003 AAA Charlotte Knights, which is a lot for AAA — none of the players higher on this list managed to win 15 games in a single year at AAA.

12.  Adam Pettyjohn (788.1 AAA, 367.1 AA, 69 MLB).  Once a second round draft pick, Pettyjohn had a career minor league record of 85-74 with a 4.23 ERA.  He went 15-6 for the 2008 AAA Louisville Bats.

Pettyjohn pitched briefly for the 2001 Detroit Tigers and the 2008 Cincinnati Reds.  His last season was 2010 for the AAA Buffalo Bisons.

13.  Derek Lee (450.2 AAA, 732.2 AA, 0 MLB).  Last and certainly least on this list, Derek Lee is the only player on this list to pitch more innings at AA than AAA.  He never pitched in the majors, which likely also prevented him from making some real money playing in Asia.  He finished his minor league career in the Mexican League in 2008 at age 33 with a final record of 81-84 and 3.61 ERA.

Lee played twelve years of professional baseball and probably never made more than $50,000 a year, if that.  He’s also unlikely to get a pension in any amount, unlike almost all the other players on this list, who had major league careers just long enough to get some kind of a pension.  Somehow, it doesn’t seem fair.

If I’ve missed any pitchers who should be included in my list, please let me know.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB 2013

Last summer I discovered that espn.com provides stats for what it calls “park factor”, which for purposes of this post means the ratio between the number of runs scored at a ballpark in any given season divided by the number of runs scored by said ballpark’s occupant (and its opponents) in away games that same season.  I wrote a post last June which evaluates each park’s park factor for the five years ending with the 2011 season.

As we approach the 2013 season (and the 2012 stats have long been in), it seems like a good time to update my earlier post incorporating the 2012 season.  Without further ado, here are the average park factors for all major league ballparks over the last six season (or less for the five ball parks that have opened more recently).

1.  Coors Field (Rockies) 1.301

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers) 1.148

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.134

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.131

5.  U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.111

6.  Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.086

7.  Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.080

8.  New Yankee Stadium (2009-2012) 1.066 [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008, 1.002]

9.  Great American Ball Park (Reds) 1.057.

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.044.

11.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.018

12.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

12.  Miller Park (Brewers) 1.010

14.  Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) 1.008

15.  Marlins Park (2012) 1.005  [Sun Life Stadium, 2007-2011, 1.038]

16.  Nationals Park (2008-2012) 0.998 [RFK Stadium, 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.986

18.  Target Field (Twins, 2010-2012) 0.983 [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

19.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.978

20.  Progressive Field (Indians) 0.960

21.  Angels Stadium 0.939

22.  PNC Park (Pirates) 0.936

22.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals) 0.936

24.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 0.919

25.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.917

26.  Dodger Stadium 0.915

27.  Citi Field (Mets, 2009-2012) 0.904 [Shea Stadium, 2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.889

29.  Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.864

30.  Petco Park (Padres) 0.808

The rankings didn’t change much from last year.  Among last year’s ten best hitters’ parks, U.S. Cellular Park, where the White Sox play, was apparently a great place to hit in 2012, moving it up two slots.  New Yankee Stadium was apparently not a great place to hit, moving it down two slots. Coors Field improved on its status as far and away the best hitters’ park in MLB.

The Marlins’ new park, which looked like a great place to hit in late June of last year, turned out to be only a little better than average for the full season — we’ll have to see how it plays over the next few seasons.

The Royals’ Kauffman Stadium moved up two slots, and the Phillies’ Citizens’ Bank Park fell two slots.  The Astros’ Minute Maid Park also fell two slots.  The Twins’ Target Field was a hitters’ park for the first time in its three year history, jumping it up four slots.  The Pirates and Giants and their respective opponents scored a lot more runs on the road in 2012, causing both PNC Park and AT&T Park to drop three slots.

With another year in the books, the Mets’ Citi Field is developing into as much of a pitchers’ park as the old Shea Stadium.  San Diego’s Petco Park remains the worst place to ply one’s trade as a major league hitter, but Seattle’s Safeco Field narrowed the gap considerably.

Not Feeling Too Sorry for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens

I can’t say that I feel any sadness about Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens each failing to get even 40% of the vote in their year of Hall of Fame eligibility.  The sportswriters are rightfully sending a message that neither deserves to be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer due to the steroids taint.  I would have voted the same way.

In my mind, the big question is how the electors will vote next year and in the years after that. There’s no doubt that Bonds’ and Clemens’ on-field performances were better than merely Hall of Fame worthy.  There’s no reasonable way to conclude that these players don’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame because of their purported steroid use, while numerous other players from generations past have been elected in spite of similar conduct and worse.

For example, most of the Hall-of-Famers from the 1960′s, ’70′s and ’80′s used performance enhancing drugs in the form of greenies (amphetamine pills) and other stimulants during their playing careers.  MLB condoned or at least turned a blind eye to stimulant use by players for more than 40 years until the fall-out from the steroid scandal forced MLB and the players’ union to agree to a ban.

Ty Cobb once claimed that during his playing career he chased down a man who tried to rob him on the street and catching him several blocks away beat the attempted robber to death.  No effort has been made to throw Cobb out of the Hall of Fame.

The same goes for Cap Anson who today is remembered as much for being the poster boy for separate-but-equal in professional baseball when he refused to allow his team to take the field against an African American opponent as he is for being the first player to accumulate 3,000 hits in his career.  Again, no one is suggesting we throw Anson out of the Hall of Fame, even though MLB’s 60+ plus year de facto ban on players of African decent is a far bigger stain on baseball history than players trying to get an edge by taking performance enhancing drugs.

In short, Bonds and Clemens ultimately deserve to be in the Hall of Fame based on their on-field performances and the degree to which they dominated the game even in an era when a lot of players were using performance enhancing drugs.  If their 15 years of eligibility pass without their being elected, that would be a real travesty.

Baseball Is a Weird Game

Despite all the games that have been played and all the games teams play is a season, baseball can still surprise.  I’m not a huge fan of Jayson Stark (Barry Bonds bad, Roger Clemens good, until, whoops!, Clemens also likely used steroids), but this article is right up my alley.

Comments:  When a team sucks ass, it is not surprising that they play better after September call-ups when they start playing young players who at least have a reasonable chance of being better than the losers who posted a sub-.333 record up to that point.

It is surprising that the Mets never threw a no-hitter in their history until 2012, given the team has always pitched in a pitchers’ park and had Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and Dwight Gooden in their primes.  Not surprising that Johan Santana was the pitcher to finally get the Mets off the Schneid.

Gregor Blanco’s save of Matt Cain’s perfect game?  That and Blanco’s on-base percentage were the reasons why Blanco was playing a corner outfield position in the first place.  Did you see the World Series?

As for Adam Dunn, he is the epitome of the money-ball player.  Statistical analysis has shown that players who draw walks and hit for power can be valuable even if they hit for a low batting average and strike out a tremendous amount.  Dunn wasn’t great in 2012, but he still scored 87 runs and drove in 96 runs, even though (1) he hit .204; (2) struck out 222 times; and (3) ran like a slug.

When I was a kid, I collected baseball cards, and some of the cards I appreciated the most were those that set forth the new records set every season.  There is always something new in major league baseball, despite all the years of play.

More Former Major Leaguers Sign with Asian Teams

South Korea’s KBO is growing by leaps and bounds.  More proof of this fact is the three signings announced in the last two days.

Scott Richmond, who pitched briefly for the Toronto Blue Jays last year, reportedly signed with the Lotte Giants for a reported $600,000.  Dana Eveland, who pitched 32.1 innings for the Baltimore Orioles last year, reportedly signed a $675,000 deal with the Hanwha Eagles.  Finally, Aneury Rodriguez, who pitched for the Houston Astros the last two seasons, signed a deal with the Samsung Lions for an as yet unreported amount.

Richmond looks like the kind of pitcher KBO teams usually sign.  He’s 33 in 2013, and he’s coming off a mediocre year as a starter for the AAA Las Vegas 51′s in the Pacific Coast League (5.61 ERA, which was still good enough to finish with an 11-7 record and fairly good strike out and walk ratios).

However, both Eveland and Rodriguez look a cut above the American pitchers who have joined KBO in recent years.  In fact, I’m surprised Eveland wasn’t recruited by a Japanese NPB team.  Eveland pitched well at AAA Norfork (2.79 ERA in 14 starts) and reasonably well for the Orioles (4.73 ERA mostly in relief), and he’ll only be 29 years old in 2013.

Aneury Rodriguez had a dreadful year in 2012, posting a 6.60 ERA for the AAA Oklahoma City RedHawks.  However, Rodriguez was only 24 years old last year, and he’s got major league stuff.  He just doesn’t have major league (or last year even AAA) command yet.  I don’t know why the Astros apparently gave up on him, although it’s possible that he became a minor league free agent based on service time once the Astros dropped him from their 40-man roster.

Along with the signing of Doug Slaten by the SK Wyverns earlier this week, it seems clear that KBO teams are determined to compete with Japan’s NPB for the best available 4-A pitchers.  If the reported Richmond and Eveland contract numbers are correct, it puts them near the very top of KBO player salary scale.

Meanwhile, NPB’s Yakult Swallows locked in their best foreign players with long (for NPB) contract extensions to Wladimir Balentien, Lastings Milledge and Tony Barnette.  Balentien reportedly signed a three-year $7.5 million dollar extension covering the years 2014 through 2016; Milledge reportedly signed a three-year $4.4 million deal with a mutual option for 2016; and Barnette reportedly signed a two-year $3.2 million deal.

In my mind, these are great moves for the small-revenue Swallows.  They have identified good young players (Barnette will be the oldest next year at age 29) who could potentially be stars in NPB for years, and once those players proved that they had what it takes to succeed in Japanese baseball, the Swallows locked them in to long-term contracts before they could flee to the high-revenue Yomiuri Giants, Hanshin Tigers or SoftBank Hawks for more money.  If the players in question stay healthy, the Swallows will definitely get their money’s worth.

 

The Current Pitcher Most Likely to Win 300 Games

Who is the active pitcher most likely to win 300 games?

Since Randy Johnson became the last 300 game winner, there’s been a lot of talk that we may have seen the last 300 game winner for at least the next couple of decades.  I don’t agree.  I think at least one active pitcher will win 300 for reasons I’ll elaborate on below.

At any rate, here is the list of the thirteen most likely candidates, based on their current win totals (and ages this past season).

Jamie Moyer 269 (49); Andy Pettitte 245 (40); Roy Halladay 199 (35); Tim Hudson 197 (36); CC Sabathia 191 (31); Mark Buerhle 174 (33); Justin Verlander 124 (29); Jered Weaver 102 (29); Felix Hernandez 98 (26); Cole Hamels/Zack Greinke 91 (28); Matt Cain 85 (27); Clayton Kershaw 61 (24).

For comparison purposes, here are the win totals for each of the last four 300-winners as of the end of each season from age 30 through 40:

Greg Maddux: 165; 184; 202; 221; 240; 257; 273; 289; 305; 318; 333. (Won 300th game year he was 38).

Roger Clemens: 163; 172; 182; 192; 213; 233; 247; 260; 280; 293; 310.  (Won 300th game year he was 40).

Tom Glavine: 139; 153; 173; 187; 208; 224; 242; 251; 262; 275; 290.  (Won 300th game year he was 41).

Randy Johnson: 81; 99; 104; 124; 143; 160; 179; 200; 224; 230; 246.  (Won 300th game year he was 45.)

Average: 137 (30); 152 (31); 165 (32); 181 (33); 201 (34); 219 (35); 235 (36); 250 (37); 268 (38); 279 (39); 295 (40).

Some notes here: I left out the previous generation’s 300-game winners (Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro; Gaylord Perry and Tom Seaver) because starting pitchers’ work loads are so much smaller than they were in the 1970′s.  Pitchers of that era made more starts each year (four-man instead of five-man rotations) and threw a lot more complete games, both of which gave starters more opportunities for decisions.

For example, the six 1970′s aces made 38 or more starts in a season 22 times (with Phil Niekro’s 44 starts in 1979 the high of this six man group), while the Maddux-Clemens-Glavine-Johnson quartet (the “Quartet”) made 37 starts in a season exactly once in their combined careers and 36 starts only six times.  By comparison, Roy Halladay in 2003 is the only time any of the active thirteen has made as many as 36 starts in a season.

However, 34 or 35 starts in a season is still fairly common. The NL in 2012 was the first time that a few as 33 starts led the league since the strike years of 1995 and 1994.

It goes without saying, that more starts and more complete games pitched mean more opportunities to rack up wins early in a pitcher’s career, which the 1970′s aces certainly did.  The Quartet on the other hand averaged an astounding 15.8 wins per year for the decade from age 31 through 40.  Today’s aces aren’t likely to make any fewer than 33 starts a season, since there has been no indication that any team will ever try a six-man rotation.  However, it seems clear that for any current pitcher to win 300, he will have to continue to be an ace throughout his 30′s.

Of the Quartet, Maddux and Clemens obviously won a lot more than 300 games, and Randy Johnson had to win 57 games after the season in which he was 40 (Phil Niekro (100) and Nolan Ryan (63) are the only 300-game winners with more wins after the season in which they were 40).  Thus, Tom Glavine’s numbers or the Quartet’s average, which is very similar, would seem to be the most relevant for comparison purposes.

As for the current crop of thirteen, we can readily eliminate the least likely candidates.  Jamie Moyer’s major league career is on extreme life support (while he hasn’t officially retired, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since last May 27th and hasn’t pitched in AAA since July 3rd).  Even if he can find another team that will give him a go in early 2013, it’s hard to believe he can last long enough to win another 31 games.

Andy Pettitte’s prospects of reaching 300 don’t look a whole lot better.  Even assuming that Pettitte returns to the Yankees in 2013, which at present seems more likely than not, he will have average 14 wins a season for the next four years (his average for the five seasons from 2006 through 2010 immediately preceding his first retirement) from age 41 to 44.  The only way I can see Pettitte sticking around that long is if he miraculously wins 20 in 2013 and gets it into his mind that he reasonably could win 300 if he hangs around.  Seems like slim odds.

We can fairly eliminate Tim Hudson, simply because he’s a year older than and a couple of wins behind Roy Halladay, who at 199 wins through age 35 is already 25 wins behind Glavine at the same age and 20 behind the Quartet average.  While Hudson has racked up 51 wins in the three-plus seasons since his major arm surgery in 2008 (Tommy John elbow ligament transplant), his innings pitched and strikeout rate were way down in 2012, which makes me think he’ll be hard pressed to make it to 40.

We can eliminate Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain and Clayton Kershaw for essentially the same reason.  Weaver is 22 wins behind Justin Verlander at the same age; and Hamels, Greinke and Cain are significantly behind Felix Hernandez at older ages.

Clayton Kershaw needs to win 37 games the next two seasons to be where Hernandez is now.  Let’s leave Kershaw out of the conversation until he does so.

Of the remaining five, Mark Buehrle seems the least likely to win 300.  In Buehrle’s defense, he has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, pitching at least 200 innings in all twelve of his seasons as a starting pitcher.  Even at his consistent pace of 13 wins a year, he could win 300 if he can become the next Tommy John/Jamie Moyer.

However, if Buehrle’s measurements (6’2″ and 245 lbs) are accurate, I just don’t see him making 30 starts a year every year for the next decade.  If any pitcher is likely to pitch well into his 40′s, it’s Roy Halladay, not Buehrle, simply because of their relative body types and the fact that Halladay is a much better pitcher.

Halladay missed about eight starts in 2012 due to what was initially called a shoulder strain but was later diagnosed as a latissimus dorsi strain.  Assuming that there isn’t anything wrong with his pitching shoulder or his spinal cord, there’s no reason why Halladay can’t return to top form in 2013 and beyond.  Even with his problems in 2012, he still struck out 7.6 hitters per nine innings and had 3.7 Ks for each walk.

In fact, I like Halladay’s chances of reaching 300 wins more than I like C.C. Sabathia’s, even though Sabathia is only eight wins behind Halladay, four years younger and ahead of every player in the Quartet at the same age.  I just can’t see a pitcher of C.C.’s size (6’7″ and 290 lbs) making 30 starts a season past the age of about 36.  In other words, I think the odds are better than even that Halladay will be a better pitcher at age 41 and 42, than Sabathia will be at age 37 and 38.

At age 31 in 2012, C.C. was already starting to show the strain.  He missed five starts this year due to a mid-season groin strain.   He’ll be 32 in 2013, the age at which players his size really begin to find it hard to stay in the line-up or rotation day after day or turn after turn.  If not in 2013, then certainly starting in 2014 or 2015, we will hear about C.C. missing time due to a groin strain, a knee or ankle injury or back problems each and every season.

That leaves Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.  I like Verlander’s chances of winning 300 more than either Halladay or Hernandez.

Verlander is approaching age 30 at the top of his game, he’s got a huge fast ball that has been clocked as high as 100 mph, and he strikes hitters out.  The latter two characteristics are particularly important when trying to project how long a pitcher’s career will last.   That’s no knock on Halladay or Hernandez, but the fact remains that Verlander’s strikeout rates are better.  If Verlander wins 16 games in 2013, which is fewer than he’s won in any of the last four seasons, he’ll be slightly ahead of Tom Glavine’s pace or the Quartet’s average through age 30.

Even if Felix Hernandez averages only 13 wins a season for the next three seasons (his average over the last three seasons playing for some meek Mariner teams), he will be significantly ahead of Verlander through age 29.  My concerns about Hernandez are two fold.

First, he’s thrown a lot of innings before the season in which he was 25.  History suggests that pitchers who do so are no longer around by their late 30′s.  In fact, Hernandez’s ERAs in 2011 and 2012 were up by almost a run compared to 2009 and 2010, although his strikeout rates have at least remained consistent.  He also looks like he’s more prone to putting on weight as he ages than Verlander.

At this moment, all of Verlander, Hernandez, Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia have a reasonable chance of winning 300 games.  It seems to me more likely than not that at least one of them will do so.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB

I recently discovered that espn.com now provides stats for what it calls “park factor,” that is, the ratio between runs scored per game in each park divided by the runs scored in the home team’s away games.

Espn.com provides “park factor” for each season going back to 2001.  However, individual seasons don’t mean all that much, because like individual players, ball parks are subject to wild swings from one year to the next in terms of whether more or less runs are scored at home than away.  For all but the best (Coors Field) and the worst (Petco Park) parks, it’s only over a period of years that you can determine which parks are really the best and worst for offense.

I used a five-year sample (2007 through 2011), which still may not be enough, but it’s certainly more meaningful than one or two seasons.  Here are the best to worst hitters’ parks in terms of runs scored for the period from 2007 through 2011:

1.  Coors Field (Rockies)  1.245

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers)  1.141

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks)  1.127

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox)  1.116

5.  Wrigley Field (Cubs)  1.098

6.  New Yankee Stadium (Yankees)  1.091  [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008,  1.002]

7.  U.S. Cellular Park (White Sox)  1.079

8.  Camden Yards (Orioles)  1.061

9.  Great American Ballpark (Reds)  1.046

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers)  1.039

11.  Sun Life Stadium (Marlins) 1.038  [Marlins Park,which opened this year, has a whopping 1.271 park factor so far in 2012.]

12.  Citizens Bank Park (Phillies)  1.016

13.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals)  1.015

14.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

15.  Minute Maid Park (Astros)  0.996

16.  Nationals Park (Nationals)  0.992  [RFK Stadium, where the Nats played 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Miller Park (Brewers) 0.978

18.  Progressive Field (Indians)  0.972

19.  PNC Park (Pirates)  0.970

20.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.966

21.  Angels Stadium (Angels)  0.964

22.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.953

22.  Target Field (Twins) 0.953  [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

24.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals)  0.926

25.  Dodger Stadium (Dodgers) 0.925

25.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s)  0.925

27.  Citi Field (Mets)  0.914  [Shea Stadium,  2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Safeco Field (Mariners)  0.899

29.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.892

30.  Petco Park (Padres)  0.799

Not many surprises among the five best and five worst places to hit, although I personally was a bit surprised that Tropicana Field is the second-worst park to hit in over the last five years, excluding the now demolished Shea Stadium.

(No sadness about Shea’s destruction from these quarters — of the seven ballparks in which I’ve watched major league baseball games, Shea was the worst, easily beating out Candlestick Park, the Oakland Coliseum and the Vet in Philadelphia for that dubious distinction.  What made Shea the worst was that the sight lines were terrible: the lower deck seats were too flat, making it hard to see over the person in front of you; and the upper deck seats were too steep, making you feel like you were watching the game from outer space.  That said, I saw some good baseball there, including a Darryl Strawberry walk-off home run off John Franco in 1988 that may have been the hardest hit ball I’ve ever seen in person.)

The biggest surprises in my mind are that neither Minute Maid Park or Turner Field were higher on the list.  I remember the early days of Minute Maid, when it was named Enron Field and commonly referred to as Ten-Run Field because of all the scoring there.  Similarly, Atlanta has always been a good place to hit, regardless of the ballpark played in, due to the hot summer weather and the 1,000+ feet of elevation at which the city sits.

From 2002 through 2006, the previous five year period, Minute Maid Park had a park factor of 1.031, which would be 12th on the list above, a good, but not great, place to hit.  Turner Field, however, was a terrible place to hit from 2002 through 2006, coming in at 0.866.  Actually, Turner Field was a good place to hit in 2001 and in 2004 through 2006 (on average), but was absolutely horrendous (0.655 and 0.651) in 2002 and 2003.

As mentioned above, parks vary greatly from year to year, so perhaps ten-year averages would be more meaningful than five year averages.  Of course, ballparks also change over time (five new parks have opened since the start of the 2008 season), which means that parks rise and fall somewhat depending on whether or not the new parks are good places to hit.

Of the five new parks noted above, all except for Target Field appear to be better hitters’ parks than the ball parks they replaced, and Target Field so far looks to be only a little bit worse than the Metrodome.

This isn’t particularly surprising: baseball fans like offense, so new parks presumably are constructed with offense in mind.  Also, the new parks are generally baseball-only and are much cozier than the multi-use stadiums that were constructed between 1960 and 1985, the previous generation of baseball stadiums.  Less foul territory means fewer foul-outs and thus higher batting averages and more runs scored.

New Draft Rules Working Great for MLB

The teams have to be extremely happy with the way the new draft bonus pool rules are working out.  Aside from the obvious decline in the amount of signing bonuses, amateur players are getting signed right away, giving most of the top picks an extra half season of professional baseball.

So far, 39 of the top 60 selections have signed or agreed to terms with the teams that drafted them.  The Northwest League is the only short-season minor league to have begun play, and its season started only yesterday.  The upshot is that many top draft picks who previously would have waited to sign until the mid-August deadline are already under contract and will get couple of extra months on their professional development compared to the old system.

It’s not at all surprising the Players’ Association agreed to the new rules.  The Players’ Association only represents players with major league service time, which obviously none of the draftees have.

The union recognizes that teams will spend X-amount of dollars to build winning, or at least competitive, teams, and that to the extent the teams save a few bucks on draft picks and foreign amateur signings, the savings are more likely than not going to be spent on major league free agents and locking in young major league players to long-term contracts before they can become free agents.  As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, the union also got a nice bump in the major league minimum salary, from $414,000 in 2011 to $480,000 in 2012 (and on up to $500,000 in 2014).

For these reasons, it’s a little surprising the MLBPA didn’t agree to these rule changes sooner.

All the amateur players will, of course, get smaller bonuses than in the past.  It’s a bit hard to feel too sorry for them, given that they haven’t done anything professionally yet, and the slot amounts are still substantial.

The biggest loser so far is Stanford RHP Mark Appel (and his “advisor” Scott Boras), who everyone thought the Astros would take with the No. 1 pick.  According to mlbtraderumors.com,  Appel would not agree in advance to the $6 million bonus the Astros wanted to pay (the slot amount was $7.2 million), so the Astros instead selected 17 year old Puerto Rican shortstop Carlos Correa, who almost immediately agreed to a $4.8 million signing bonus.

Appel fell all the way down to 8th, the slot for which is only $2.9 million.  Presumably, the Pirates will try to sign their remaining picks below slot, and use any savings to sweeten their final offer to Appel.  However, it’s extremely unlikely the available pot will reach $6 million, even assuming that that the Pirates will go up to 5% over their overall draft bonus pool to sign Appel, in light of the fact that the Pirates’ total pot of the first ten rounds is only a hair over $6.5 million.

The rules are that teams spending (1) up to 5% over the total pool amount will be hit with a 75% tax on the overage; (2) between 5% and 10% over is subject to a 75% tax on the overage and loss of the 1st round pick in the next draft; (3) 10% to 15% overage is 100% tax on the overage on the overage and lost of 1st and 2nd round picks in the next draft; and (4) over 15% is 100% tax on the overage and loss of 1st round picks in next two drafts.

While the overage tax strikes me as fairly meaningless, the loss of future draft picks is not.  That being said, there is at least a possibility that the Pirates will decide that Mark Appel is worth the two first round picks they would receive next year if they do not sign Appel.

If the Pirates do not sign Appel, they will receive the 9th pick in the 2013 Draft and, based on current 2012 standings, no worse than the 17th pick also.  A team might consider that a fair price to pay for a player who almost all sources regard as at least one of the top five amateurs available in this year’s draft.

However, I personally would rather have to two top-20 picks in next year’s draft, particularly if I were running a small-market team like the Pirates, which can turn a profit as a result of revenue-sharing if it simply keeps its expenses down.

It appears that the Pirates have all the bargaining leverage, and that all Appel can do is go back to Stanford of his senior year and hope he is selected in the top five in the 2013 Draft.  Given that he’ll be a year older and a proven tough sign, that seems pretty unlikely.

Boras may well challenge the new rules in court, but he would be up against the three prior Supreme Court rulings between 1922 and 1971 upholding MLB’s anti-trust exemption.  The Supreme Court has consistently said that it’s up to Congress to take away MLB’s anti-trust exemption, and it’s something that Congress has never had the votes to do.

Matt Cain Throws Perfect Game

Matt Cain threw the 22nd perfect game in major league history tonight against the Astros.  Matt tied Sandy Koufax with 14 strikeouts for most in a perfect game.

On that criteria, one could reasonably rank Matt’s perfect game as the second best game ever pitched, after Koufax’s perfecto on September 9, 1965 against the Cubs, because Koufax did it on 113 pitches, while Matt had to throw a whopping 125 to record a perfect game with 14 Ks.  Matt now holds the record for most pitches thrown in a perfect, with David Wells’ 120 perfect game (11 Ks) on May 17, 1998 coming in second.

The fewest pitches used to throw a perfect game were Addie Joss’s 74 on October 2, 1908 against the White Sox.  He only struck out three.  Joss died less than three years later at age 31 of tubucular meningitus.  He throw another no hitter in 1910, also against the White Sox, becoming the only pitcher ever to no-hit the same team twice.

More recently, David Cone threw only 88 pitches while striking out ten Montreal Expos on July 18, 1999.

Cain’s Perfecto is the second of the year, following Phil Humber’s 96 pitch masterpiece against the Mariners on April 21st.

As you are probably aware, the Mets are contesting a ruling on a weak grounder down third base which was ruled a hit against R. A. Dickey, who allowed no other hits in a complete game win against the Rays tonight.  The Mets say David Wright made an error.  If the ruling is changed, it will be the sixth no-hitter of the young season, including the perfectos, Jared Weaver’s no-no, Johan Santana’s blown call no-hitter, and Kevin Millwood and five Seattle relievers’ combined no-hitter against the Dodgers.

The most famous combined no-hitter is, of course, the Babe Ruth/Ernie Shore effort on June 23, 1917.  Ruth walked the game’s first batter and was thrown out for arguing the umpire’s call.  Shore came in, Ruth’s base runner was caught stealing, and Shore retired the next 26 batters in a row.

The Mariner’s six pitcher no-hitter ties the mark set by Roy Oswalt and five Astros relievers on June 11, 2003.  Most of you probably don’t remember this, but it was a big, big deal when Vida Blue and three Oakland A’s relievers combined for a no-hitter on September 28, 1975.  Shows how much the game  has changed in one generation.

The only two perfect games of the 19th century were thrown by Lee Richmond and John Montgomery Ward five days apart around this part of June in 1880.  What is most amazing about the 1880 perfectos is that the Worchester Ruby Legs and Providence Grays made no errors.  Each team probably had at least several players who still were not using fielding gloves.  The Ruby Legs average 4.18 errors per game played that year, and the Grays averaged 4.10 per game.

The Next Yu Darvish

Now that Darvish is officially a Texas Ranger, the next Japanese pitcher likely to stir up endless speculation regarding if and when he’ll come to the U.S. is the Rakuten Golden Eagle’s Masahiro Tanaka.  While there is only one Yu Darvish, Tanaka is the only other pitcher in Japan who can really be compared to Darvish.

Darvish and Tanaka were far and away the top two starters in Japan last season and Tanaka is two years younger than Darvish.  Here are their 2011 pitching lines for comparison purposes:

Darvish:  18-6 W/L, 232 IP, 156 hits, 5 HRs and 36 BBs allowed, 276 Ks and 1.44 ERA.

Tanaka:  19-5 W/L, 226.1 IP, 171 hits, 8 HRs and 27 BBs allowed, 241 Ks and 1.27 ERA.

ERAs were ridiculously low in NPB last year with six pitchers posting ERAs below 2.00 out of only 33 starters who threw enough innings to qualify.  Still, Tanaka and Darvish were 1st and 2nd, respectively.

No other pitcher in Japan struck out more than 192 or threw more than 216 innings.

Obviously, Tanaka is no Yu Darvish.  2011 was Darvish’s fifth consecutive season with an ERA below 2.00 and in four of the last five years, Darvish struck out more than 200 and pitched more than 200 innings (Darvish missed three to five starts at the end of 2009 with back and shoulder soreness).

Still, Tanaka is no slouch, having recorded ERA’s of 2.50 and 2.33 the previous two seasons and striking out 196 in 186.1 IP in 2007, his rookie season, and 171 in 189.2 IP in 2009.  Tanaka suffered a right pectoral injury in 2010 that limited him to 150 IP, but he came back strong in 2011 with his best season to date at the tender age of 22.

Like Darvish, Tanaka was pitching in NPB’s major leagues at age 18, which is an incredible accomplishment in and of itself.  Because NPB teams have only one minor league team each, young players can reach the top league much more quickly than in the U.S — you simply don’t see 18 year old starters in the U.S., now or ever, with Mel Ott in 1927 probably coming the closest.

On the other hand, I’ve noticed that NPB seems to have a lot more late bloomers (players who have strong careers although not establishing themselves as regulars until age 25 or later) than MLB does.  This may be because their are fewer NPB teams, which means that good minor league players can get stuck if there is a strong player holding their position at the top level.

Like Darvish, Tanaka has thrown an awful lot of innings at a tender age, but has handled it pretty well so far.  NPB’s website lists Tanaka at 6’2″ and 205 lbs, which for a player who only recently turned 23, is certainly big enough to make MLB teams stand up and take notice.

The Golden Eagles had the worst attendance in NPB over the last two seasons, just barely nipping the Yokohama Bay Stars for last place.  One has to think that if Tanaka has a 2012 season anywhere close to his 2011, Yokohama won’t be able to afford him and will be looking to cash in on a likely $40-50 million posting fee (depending on how well Darvish pitches this coming season).

Here is another Japanese pitcher to keep an eye on:

Kenta Maeda:  His 2.46 ERA was 7th best in the Central League last season, and his 216 IP and 192 Ks were third best in all of NPB after, of course, Darvish and Tanaka.  Somehow, pitching that well only resulted in a 10-12 record (there was really no offense in NPB last year at all).

In fact, Maeda was even better in 2010, going 15-8 with a 2.21 ERA and 174 Ks in 215.2 IP.  Maeda is also only seven months older than Tanaka, which means MLB teams are well aware of him.

The biggest knock on Maeda is that he does not have the body MLB teams want to see in their right-handed pitchers.  NPB’s website lists him as only 6’0″ and 161 lbs.

Tim Lincecum has proven a pitcher can be successful with that body type, but it isn’t for nothing they call him “The Freak.”

Maeda’s team, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, are another of NPB’s perennial bottom feeders (sorry about the pun — I couldn’t resist), so you have to think they’ll look for a posting payday if Maeda continues to pitch the way he has the last two seasons.

While I’m at it:

Toshiya Sugiuchi:  Sugiuchi is a veteran lefty with terrific stuff.  He won’t be posted, but he’s about to enter his 11th NPB season, which makes you think he’s going to be a true free agent at the end of 2012 or, at the latest 2013  [He was a free agent this off-season -- See below].

Sugiuchi is a hell of pitcher, and he could easily be the next Hiroki Kuroda if he comes to the states.  In fact, he should be better than Kuroda if his NPB numbers mean anything.

Sugiuchi’s 1.94 ERA and 177 Ks were “only” good enough for sixth and fifth, respectively, in all of NPB last season.  However, he has had four other seasons with ERA’s between 2.11 and 2.66 and four seasons with between 204 and 218 Ks, even without ever having pitched 200 innings in a season (he’s fallen a few innings short several times).

Sugiuchi is a small left-hander listed as 5’9″ and 187 lbs.  MLB teams don’t have the same grudge against small LHPs as they do against small RHPs, so I don’t think Suguichi’s small stature will hurt him if MLB teams come calling.

The MLB pitcher Sugiuchi most reminds me of, in terms of size and numbers, is Wandy Rodriguez, another compact lefty with great strikeout stuff.  If Sugiuchi comes to the U.S. as a starter in 2013 at age 32, I would expect his numbers to look a lot like Wandy’s 2011 season.

[Actually, Sugiuchi will probably never come to the U.S.  Further research for this post reveals that Sugiuchi recently signed a four-year free agent contract with the Yomiuri Giants for two billion yen, which is hair less than $26 million at current exchange rates.]

Two other veteran lefties worth mentioning here are Tetsuya Utsumi and Tsuyoshi Wada.  Wada was signed back in December by the Orioles for two years at $8.15 million.

Utsumi pitches for the Yomiuri Giants, along with the Hanshin Tigers, one of the two teams in Japan with the resources to compete with MLB teams in terms of the salaries they can offer, as Suguichi’s new contract suggests.  Thus, Yomiuri may well hold on to Utsumi when he becomes a free agent a couple of years from now.

The Wada signing makes a lot of sense for the Orioles, given their budget limitations.  He’s well worth the risk on $8.15 million over two years.  However, neither Wada nor Utsumi is as good as Sugiuchi.