Chicago Cubs Lock Up Anthony Rizzo

The big news yesterday was the Cubs’ announcement that the team had extended 23 year old 1Bman Anthony Rizzo for seven years at $41 million.  This signing continues and extends the trend of major league teams locking up their young stars with long term contracts early in their careers.

At this point in his career, Rizzo has exactly 685 major league plate appearances, about one full season, with a career .253 batting average and .762 OPS.  At this point Rizzo is still more promise than production, even taking into account his awful debut with the Padres in 2011, when at age 21 he batted only .141 with a .523 OPS in 49 games.

By way of comparison, Starlin Castro and Paul Goldschmidt looked like seasoned veterans at the point that their respective teams extended them (Castro by the Cubs last August and Goldschmidt by the Diamondbacks this Spring) insofar as Castro and Goldschmidt had at least completed full seasons in which they had established themselves as star players before being extended.

The Cubs’ thinking is obvious — they’re sold on Rizzo and they’ve locked in for the best years of his career a still very young power hitter who is more likely than not to get much better over the next three to five seasons at a very reasonable rate.  In fact, the contract contains two club options for years eight and nine which, if exercised, would raise the contract to $70 million and would keep Rizzo a Cub through age 31.

Rizzo, on the other hand, has potentially left a lot of money on the table for the guarantee of what should be lifetime financial security at age 23.  He also gets to play his prime years in Wrigley Field, which gives him the one of the best chances to develop into a superstar slugger.

Clearly, there’s a risk here for the Cubs — as noted above, Rizzo really hasn’t done much so far in his major league career, and he strikes out a lot.  Major league pitchers will find holes in Rizzo’s swing, and we don’t yet know how good Rizzo will be at making the necessary adjustments to close or at least shrink those holes.  Even so, the upside of this signing is certainly high enough to justify the $41 million risked.

At this point, I think the only thing standing in the way of other teams signing their young stars as relatively inexperienced as Rizzo to long term deals is that some of these young stars will choose to defer the long-term deal for at least a couple of seasons in order to establish themselves as major stars and command the much larger deals that, for example, Matt Cain (five years and $112.5 million new money) and Buster Posey (nine years, $167 million) recently signed with the Giants, Felix Hernandez (five years, $135.5 million new money) signed with the Mariners and Clayton Kershaw will likely soon sign with the Dodgers.  Further, teams will likely wait longer to extend their young pitchers in order to see whether they can handle 200+ inning work loads for multiple seasons.

 

Wladimir Balentien Slugging ‘Em Deep in Japan

A player who didn’t get mentioned in yesterday’s run-down of hot Nippon Professional Baseball (“NPB”) hitters because he’s missed about a dozen games this year, former Cincinnati Red and Seattle Mariner Wladimir Balentien reportedly hit three home runs today for the Yakult Swallows in a game against the Yokohama Bay Stars.  The first two blasts left the stadium, and security guards warned passersby to watch out for low-flying objects when Wladimir came up to bat in the 8th inning.

This is the fourth time in his two-plus year NPB career that Balentien has hit three HRs in a game, which puts him in a seven-way tie for third most three-homer games in NPB history.  Only Ralph Bryant (8 times) and Sadaharu Oh (5 times) have done it more. [You'll have to scroll down the link to find Bryant's NPB stats.]  Balentien also joins Cecil Fielder on August 13, 1989 and Leo Gomez on May 17, 2000 as the only players to have hit two balls entirely out of the stadium in one NPB game.

Balentien has now hit eight HRs in 15 games this season, but still trails Tony Blanco, who hit his 14th HR of the young season in the same game (Blanco’s 27th game of the season), for the Central League lead.  This is the reason why NPB teams pay the big bucks to bring in foreign hitters — to slug the long ball.

Michael Bourn Gets Burned

The Indians have reportedly signed center fielder Michael Bourn to a four-year deal for $48 million.  While Bourn won’t be going to bed hungry any time soon, this deal is a disaster for him and his agent Scott Boras, given that the majority opinion was that Bourn was the best true center fielder available in this year’s free agent class.

The obvious comparison is with B. J. Upton, who got five years at a guaranteed $75.25 million from the Braves earlier this off-season.  Yes, Upton is two years younger than Bourn, but Bourn has been much better last year and the last three years.

In 2012, fangraphs rated Bourn’s performance as worth $28.9 million and Upton’s at $15.0 million.  Over the last three seasons, fangraphs rated Bourn’s performance as worth $66.2 million and Upton’s at $49.9 million.

Strangely, fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan thinks both the Indians and Bourn got good deals out of this signing.  I just don’t see it.

Even taking into account that much of Bourn’s value comes from his center field defense and the facts that he’s getting older and his defense is likely to slide in the next few seasons, Bourn looks like the kind of player who will be a more valuable lead-off hitter in years to come.  Bourn still runs extremely well (ten triples and 42 stolen bases in 55 attempts last season), he hit with more power than ever in his career (his nine home runs nearly doubled his career total), and he gets on base fairly well for a lead-off hitter who runs as well as he does (.348 OBP last year, and between .341 and .354 the previous three years).

I will admit, however, that Bourn is not an ideal lead-off hitter, due to his relatively low on-base percentages.  Bourn has not scored 100 runs in any of the last four seasons despite averaging 677 plate appearances per year and leading the NL in stolen bases in three of those seasons.  Wade Boggs, who ran like a slug, scored 100 or more runs in seven consecutive seasons because he got on base roughly 45% of his plate appearances.

Even so, the fact that Bourn got less than four years and $60 million has to be seen as a failure by his agent Scott Boras.  In fact, it’s not clear at all that the Braves decided they wanted Upton over Bourn.  Early in the off-season, Bourn/Boras were throwing up pie-in-the-sky contract numbers, and the Braves simply went out and got the next best player, for what at the time seemed like a more reasonable amount.

Would the Braves back in November have been willing to give Bourn the same contract they gave Upton?  I don’t have much doubt they would have.

Boras has generally been so good at turning what looked like a bad situation into a huge contract that I wasn’t willing to write him off until a relatively bad contract was actually signed.  Well, that bad contract has now been signed.  Boras overplayed Bourn’s hand, and Bourn will have to live with it — he’ll be crying all the way to the bank.

The new draft pick compensation scheme agreed upon by the owners and players’ association looks like a win for the owners.  The Mets almost certainly would have given Bourn more than what the Indians won with, but they were concerned about losing a first round draft pick (and the signing bonus pool money) despite finishing with the tenth worst record in MLB last season, thanks to the Pirates’ failure to sign Mark Appel, another Boras client, with the eighth pick of last year’s draft.

While the owners probably would have struck a deal to let the Mets keep their 2013 first round pick, even reaching that stage required the players’ association to file a grievance after the Mets signed Bourn (you can’t file a grievance or any other legal claim for a hypothetical injury), and this fact likely impacted the contract the Mets were willing to offer Bourn.

2013 should be an interesting season for the Indians.  Even with the additions of Brett Myers, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Trevor Bauer, their pitching still looks pretty weak, although Bourn in center should help a lot in that regard.

At a minimum, Ubaldo Jimenez will have to bounce back to the pitcher he was in 2009 and 2010, Justin Masterson will have to return to 2011 form, and Zach McAllister has to improve on his fine 2012 rookie season for the Tribe to be successful in 2013.  Seems like a tall order.

As a final and largely unrelated note, the Felix Hernandez contract extension seemed like a good move for both sides, at least until medical tests suggested a problem with King Felix’s pitching elbow.  Despite all the talk of record-setting contracts, the extension really only promised Hernandez $139.5 million in new money, while giving him the ego bump of a record-setting contract and allowing the Mariners to control him through age 33, which is just about ideal for a pitcher of his caliber.

My biggest concern with a long-term extension for Hernandez was all the innings he’s pitched before age 25.  Needless to say, it’s not particularly surprising that his elbow is showing wear after all the innings he’s pitched in his career to date.

Elijah Dukes Arrested on Warrant for Eating Bag of Marijuana

Remember Elijah Dukes?  He was once a highly regarded prospect for the Tampa Bay Rays and the Washington Nationals who apparently washed out of professional baseball in 2010 because of his problems off the field and, perhaps, his conduct in the locker room.

The Rays drafted Dukes in the 3rd round of the 2002 Draft.  In 2007 at age 23, he got 220 plate appearances for the Rays, and while he hit only .190, he also slugged ten home runs.

2007 was also eventful for Dukes off the playing field.  In May, his wife sought a restraining order against him for threatening her life and their children.  In June, it was reported that Dukes had impregnated a 17 year old foster child of one of his relatives and threw a bottle of Gatorade at the girl when she informed him of the pregnancy.  Luckily for Dukes, the sex was consensual and the age of consent in Florida is below 18 years of age.

The Rays decided that Dukes needed a change of scenery and traded him to Nats for a Glenn Gibson, a minor league pitcher who never pitched higher than the A+ level.  The Nats hired a former police officer as a “Special Assistant: Player Concerns” whose job was to tail Dukes and keep him out of trouble.

In 2008, at age 24, Dukes rewarded the Nats with a season in which he hit .264 with a terrific .864 OPS in 81 games.  At that point he looked like a future star.

However, Dukes hit only .250 with a .729 OPS in 2009.  Still, he was only 25 years old, and his future looked bright.

While Dukes had apparently stayed out of trouble off the field after being acquired by the Nationals, the team didn’t consider him a positive influence in the clubhouse.  On March 17, 2010, in the middle of Spring Training, the Nationals gave Dukes his unconditional release.

While Nats’ General Manager Mike Rizzo said that the decision was performance-based (Dukes was 3 for 20 at the plate that Spring), Rizzo was also quoted as saying, “The clubhouse will be more united.  We’ll have a better feel around the ballclub. We’ll gain just by that alone.”  Rizzo also said the Nats would be a “more cohesive group” without Dukes.

Strangely, no other major league franchise would give Dukes another chance, in spite of his age and obvious ability as a hitter.  He reportedly reached a deal to play in the Mexican League, but then backed out after not showing up for the reporting date.

In early July 2010, he signed with the Newark Bears of the Independent A Atlantic League.  In 116 plate appearances over 28 games, Dukes hit .366 with a 1.007 OPS, but no major league organization was willing to give him another chance.

Dukes was arrested in November 2010 for failing to pay child support, and in March 2011, he was arrested again for assaulting a pregnant ex-girlfriend.  That was the end of any future baseball career for Dukes.

In February 2012, Dukes was arrested for drug possession and destruction of evidence when he tried to eat a bag of marijuana after the cops pulled him over.  He apparently failed to appear in court, because he was arrested yesterday on that warrant and also for driving on a suspended license.

In similar news, another of my all-time favorite clubhouse cancers, Milton Bradley, is facing the possibility of 13 years in prison for multiple alleged assaults against his estranged wife.  In one incident in November 2012, he is accused of pushing his wife up against a wall and choking her after she allegedly requested that he stop smoking marijuana in front of their children.  You can’t make this stuff up.

While Bradley got far more chances than Dukes got, and certainly far more than Bradley deserved in spite of his enormous batting talent, this blog is certainly the poorer for the end of Bradley’s professional baseball career in 2011.  He always gave me plenty to write about each time a team that should have known better acquired him.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB 2013

Last summer I discovered that espn.com provides stats for what it calls “park factor”, which for purposes of this post means the ratio between the number of runs scored at a ballpark in any given season divided by the number of runs scored by said ballpark’s occupant (and its opponents) in away games that same season.  I wrote a post last June which evaluates each park’s park factor for the five years ending with the 2011 season.

As we approach the 2013 season (and the 2012 stats have long been in), it seems like a good time to update my earlier post incorporating the 2012 season.  Without further ado, here are the average park factors for all major league ballparks over the last six season (or less for the five ball parks that have opened more recently).

1.  Coors Field (Rockies) 1.301

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers) 1.148

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.134

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.131

5.  U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.111

6.  Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.086

7.  Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.080

8.  New Yankee Stadium (2009-2012) 1.066 [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008, 1.002]

9.  Great American Ball Park (Reds) 1.057.

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.044.

11.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.018

12.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

12.  Miller Park (Brewers) 1.010

14.  Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) 1.008

15.  Marlins Park (2012) 1.005  [Sun Life Stadium, 2007-2011, 1.038]

16.  Nationals Park (2008-2012) 0.998 [RFK Stadium, 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.986

18.  Target Field (Twins, 2010-2012) 0.983 [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

19.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.978

20.  Progressive Field (Indians) 0.960

21.  Angels Stadium 0.939

22.  PNC Park (Pirates) 0.936

22.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals) 0.936

24.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 0.919

25.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.917

26.  Dodger Stadium 0.915

27.  Citi Field (Mets, 2009-2012) 0.904 [Shea Stadium, 2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.889

29.  Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.864

30.  Petco Park (Padres) 0.808

The rankings didn’t change much from last year.  Among last year’s ten best hitters’ parks, U.S. Cellular Park, where the White Sox play, was apparently a great place to hit in 2012, moving it up two slots.  New Yankee Stadium was apparently not a great place to hit, moving it down two slots. Coors Field improved on its status as far and away the best hitters’ park in MLB.

The Marlins’ new park, which looked like a great place to hit in late June of last year, turned out to be only a little better than average for the full season — we’ll have to see how it plays over the next few seasons.

The Royals’ Kauffman Stadium moved up two slots, and the Phillies’ Citizens’ Bank Park fell two slots.  The Astros’ Minute Maid Park also fell two slots.  The Twins’ Target Field was a hitters’ park for the first time in its three year history, jumping it up four slots.  The Pirates and Giants and their respective opponents scored a lot more runs on the road in 2012, causing both PNC Park and AT&T Park to drop three slots.

With another year in the books, the Mets’ Citi Field is developing into as much of a pitchers’ park as the old Shea Stadium.  San Diego’s Petco Park remains the worst place to ply one’s trade as a major league hitter, but Seattle’s Safeco Field narrowed the gap considerably.

Is Scott Atchison the Most Disrespected Player in MLB?

The non-tendered arbitration-eligible players are coming in today, and the one that most catches my attention is Red Sox reliever Scott Atchison.  Atchison had a terrific 1.58 ERA for the BoSox last year, with a pitching line of 51.1 IP, 42 hits, 2 HRs and 9 walks, and 36 Ks.

More importantly, Atchison was not expected to get a big contract even if he went through the arbitration process.  mlbtraderumors.com predicts that he would have received only $800,000 had he gone through arbitration.  [mlbtraderumors.com claims that it's predictions, provided by Matt Swartz, have been referred to by "teams and agencies" in their own preparatory work because of their recognized accuracy.]

There are other pitchers who pitched well in 2012 but have been non-tendered, specifically John Lannan, Tom Gorzellany and Jeff Karstens.  However, these pitchers were projected to make far more money (Lannon: $5M; Gorzellany $2.8M; Karstens $3.8 M).  One could reasonably understand why their teams might feel they aren’t worth the money they’d likely receive through arbitration.

However, the amount projected to go to Atchison is little more than the minimum for major league players of his age and experience level.  The Red Sox refusal to tender him a contract seems strange.

On the other hand, the move did not surprise a lot of other people because Atchison pitched through a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament last year, an injury that often requires Tommy John surgery.  On the advise of Dr. James Andrews, the most renowned expert in the field, Atchison decided to rest his elbow rather than undergo the knife, according to this article.

After missing roughly two months of the season, Atchison was able to make five appearances (5.1 IP) in late September and early October for the Crimson Hose without allowing a run. Even so, the Red Sox have obviously decided that Atchison is worth no more than a minor league contract or most most a heavily incentive laden contract which only guarantees the major league minimum, in the event that Atchison’s elbow gives out at some time in 2013.

I will say this, however:  Atchison has long failed to receive the recognition he deserves from major league teams.

I first became aware of Scott Atchison when he had a terrific year for the the Giants’ AAA club, the Fresno Grizzlies, in 2007 when he was already age 31.  Fresno is a tough place to pitch, but Atchison posted a 2.01 ERA and had a Ks/BBs ratio of better than 5-to-1.  For this fine performance, he was rewarded with a short major league call-up, and he pitched well in 22 major league relief appearances for the Giants that year, striking out 2.5 batters for every walk he allowed.

However, the Giants didn’t see him having any future with them, even though he’d also pitched well for the Mariners in 2004 and had been a fine AAA pitcher for years.

Atchison went to Japan in 2008 and had two strong seasons there.  In 2009, he had a 1.70 ERA for the Hanshin Tigers in 75 relief appearances with a pitching line of 90 IP, 60 hits, three HRs and 20 BBS allowed, while striking out 85.

Atchison’s 2009 performance enabled him to sign with the Red Sox in 201o for an unguaranteed $420,000, with club options for 2011 and 2012 at $440,00o and $600,000, respectively  [other sources say Atchison's 2012 salary was actually only $510,000].  For those small salaries, at least by major league standards, Atchison gave the Red Sox well more than their monies’ worth, pitching 141.2 combined innings, almost all in relief, with a 3.18 ERA.

Atchison’s main problem is that he developed late, not starting his professional career until age 23 and not developing into a major league caliber pitcher until he was 28.  As a result, teams haven’t seen him as a viable option for the future despite his pitching well year after year after year.

2013 looks like another year where Scott Atchison will have to prove himself all over again for the umpteenth time in his professional career.

As a final note, the Red Sox also non-tendered left-handed reliever Rich Hill, who came back Tommy John surgery in 2012 at age 31 to make 25 relief appearances for the Red Sox (and 16 minor league appearances) with exceptionally low ERAs (1.83 in the majors and 2.20 in the minors).  Hill spent some time on the disabled list this year with “forearm tightness,” which may be a euphemism for elbow soreness, but made 13 appearances between August 20th and the end of the regular season.

Given that Hill was only projected to make $1.1 million through the arbitration process and the fact that good left-handed short men can be hard to find, it’s a little bit surprising the Red Sox non-tendered him as well.

More Top KBO Arms

With the Dodgers $26 million-plus winning posting bid for Korean ace Hyun-Jin Ryu (using the Western name order), new attention has been shined on the Korea Baseball Organization (“KBO”) as a future source for major league talent.   I thought it would be fun to identify a few other pitching prospects from the KBO who might one day pitch in MLB.

1.  Suk-Min Yoon.  I’ve already written about Yoon here and here.  He’s a right-handed pitcher who won the Pitcher’s Triple Crown (wins, ERA and Ks) in KBO in 2011.  He also led the KBO with a 2.33 ERA in 2008.  In 2012, his 3.12 ERA was 8th best in the KBO and his 137 Ks (in 153 IP) was 4th best.

Yoon doesn’t strike out hitters the way Ryu does, but he can definitely pitch.  He has eight years of KBO experience, and he still only turns 27 next July 24th.

The player Yoon reminds me most of is Japan’s and the Mariners’ Hisashi Iwakuma.  Like Iwakuma, Yoon is a bit inconsistent season to season, and neither pitcher has the kind of strike out totals to make a major league team stand up and take notice.  However, both players really know how to pitch, and there’s something to be said for that.

If Ryu is reasonably successful in MLB and Yoon has a big year in KBO in 2013, there’s a good chance either that his team, the Kia Tigers, will post Yoon next off-season or that he’ll become a free agent (I’m not clear on the KBO’s free agency rules, although KBO players have signed to play in Japan’s NPB after nine or ten seasons) and seek to sign with an MLB team.

[Note that the links in this post are to KBO's official website, which is in Korean, but the stats pretty much speak for themselves.]

2.  Seung-Hwan Oh.  Oh is the top relief pitcher in KBO by a fairly wide margin.  After eight KBO seasons, he has a career ERA of 1.69, with a pitching line of 458.2 IP, 265 hits, 110 walks and 571 Ks.  It’s hard to find anything not to like about that.

In fact, Oh appears to have had some arm problems in 2009 and 2010, and he had ERAs above 4.00 those years.  For the other six years of his KBO career, Oh’s ERA was a combined 1.35.

Oh turned 30 last July 15th, so he’s not young.  Of course, a lot of Japanese NPB relievers have come over to America over the age of 30 and had a lot of success, so I don’t see any reason why Oh couldn’t.  In fact, he reminds me of Kyuji Fujikawa, the top NPB closer, who most anticipate will get a fat free agent contract this off-season and pitch well in MLB next year.

Oh’s 1.94 ERA in 2012 was high for him, but he also struck out 81 and allowed only 33 hits and 13 walks in 55.2 IP.  Again, it’s hard to find fault in numbers like that.

3.  Chang-Min Shin.  As a 19 year old rookie reliever, Shin posted a 1.83 ERA with a pitching line of 39.1 IP, 26 hits and 17 walks allowed, and 41 Ks.  He’s a long way from leaving Korea, but he’s definitely what you would call a prospect.

4.  Yoon-gu Kang.   At age 21 and in his first year as a starter, Kang struck out 127 batters in 125.2 IP.  He’s extremely wild (he walked 74), but he already has substantial KBO experience, and he has the arm to develop into a fine pitcher a few years hence.

5.  Sang-San Hong.  At age 22, he was one of the top set-up men in KBO, posting a 1.93 ERA, recording 22 holds (3rd best in KBO) and a pitching line of 65.1 IP, 35 hits and 29 walks allowed, and 69 Ks.

6.  Woo-ram Jung.  One of the younger closers in KBO in 2012 at age 27 (Korean teams apparently prefer veteran closers), Jung posted a 2.20 ERA, saved 30 games (5th best) and posted a pitching line of 49 IP, 33 hits and nine walks allowed, and 55 strike outs.

Despite, his tender age, Jung is an eight year KBO veteran with a career KBO ERA of 2.80 and a pitching line of 498.1 IP, 371 hits and 204 walks allowed, and 445 Ks.  However, Jung’s command appears to have improved dramatically the last two seasons.

One thing I noticed in reviewing the stats is that KBO teams appear to work their top set-up men much harder than their closers, with set-up men sometimes pitching twice as many innings in a season as closers.  Jung pitched a lot of innings as the SK Wyverns’ top set-up man from 2008 through 2011  [see here for a discription of a Wyvern], which may mean arms problems in his future, although he sure didn’t show any ill effects in 2012.

If Jung can improve on his already outstanding 2011 and 2012 seasons in 2013, there’s a good chance he’ll draw major league interest next off-season.  Otherwise, my guestimate is that he will sign with a Japanese NPB team a year or two from now.

7.  Yong-chan Lee.  At age 23, Lee posted a 3.00 ERA, seventh best in the KBO.  He already appears to have at least four years of KBO service, although he still looks like a work in progress.

Lee started his career as a set-up man and has been a starter the last two seasons.   He has struck out 212 batters in 291 IP over the last two years, while walking 123. Like I said, he’s a work in progress, but he’s young enough that if he can improve his command and strike out rate, he could become a pitcher of whom MLB would take notice.

8.  Hee-soo Park.  Park was KBO’s top set-up man in 2012, recording 34 holds and a miniscule 1.32 ERA.  He struck out 93 batters in 82 innings of work, while allowing 52 hits and 27 walks.  Park now has a career 1.97 KBO ERA with more strike outs than innings pitched.

The knock on Park is his age.  He turns 30 next July 13th, and as of the end of the 2012 season appears to have less than three years of KBO service.  The upshot is that he may well be 35 years old before his team, the SK Wyverns, posts him or he becomes a free agent.

The Current Pitcher Most Likely to Win 300 Games

Who is the active pitcher most likely to win 300 games?

Since Randy Johnson became the last 300 game winner, there’s been a lot of talk that we may have seen the last 300 game winner for at least the next couple of decades.  I don’t agree.  I think at least one active pitcher will win 300 for reasons I’ll elaborate on below.

At any rate, here is the list of the thirteen most likely candidates, based on their current win totals (and ages this past season).

Jamie Moyer 269 (49); Andy Pettitte 245 (40); Roy Halladay 199 (35); Tim Hudson 197 (36); CC Sabathia 191 (31); Mark Buerhle 174 (33); Justin Verlander 124 (29); Jered Weaver 102 (29); Felix Hernandez 98 (26); Cole Hamels/Zack Greinke 91 (28); Matt Cain 85 (27); Clayton Kershaw 61 (24).

For comparison purposes, here are the win totals for each of the last four 300-winners as of the end of each season from age 30 through 40:

Greg Maddux: 165; 184; 202; 221; 240; 257; 273; 289; 305; 318; 333. (Won 300th game year he was 38).

Roger Clemens: 163; 172; 182; 192; 213; 233; 247; 260; 280; 293; 310.  (Won 300th game year he was 40).

Tom Glavine: 139; 153; 173; 187; 208; 224; 242; 251; 262; 275; 290.  (Won 300th game year he was 41).

Randy Johnson: 81; 99; 104; 124; 143; 160; 179; 200; 224; 230; 246.  (Won 300th game year he was 45.)

Average: 137 (30); 152 (31); 165 (32); 181 (33); 201 (34); 219 (35); 235 (36); 250 (37); 268 (38); 279 (39); 295 (40).

Some notes here: I left out the previous generation’s 300-game winners (Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro; Gaylord Perry and Tom Seaver) because starting pitchers’ work loads are so much smaller than they were in the 1970′s.  Pitchers of that era made more starts each year (four-man instead of five-man rotations) and threw a lot more complete games, both of which gave starters more opportunities for decisions.

For example, the six 1970′s aces made 38 or more starts in a season 22 times (with Phil Niekro’s 44 starts in 1979 the high of this six man group), while the Maddux-Clemens-Glavine-Johnson quartet (the “Quartet”) made 37 starts in a season exactly once in their combined careers and 36 starts only six times.  By comparison, Roy Halladay in 2003 is the only time any of the active thirteen has made as many as 36 starts in a season.

However, 34 or 35 starts in a season is still fairly common. The NL in 2012 was the first time that a few as 33 starts led the league since the strike years of 1995 and 1994.

It goes without saying, that more starts and more complete games pitched mean more opportunities to rack up wins early in a pitcher’s career, which the 1970′s aces certainly did.  The Quartet on the other hand averaged an astounding 15.8 wins per year for the decade from age 31 through 40.  Today’s aces aren’t likely to make any fewer than 33 starts a season, since there has been no indication that any team will ever try a six-man rotation.  However, it seems clear that for any current pitcher to win 300, he will have to continue to be an ace throughout his 30′s.

Of the Quartet, Maddux and Clemens obviously won a lot more than 300 games, and Randy Johnson had to win 57 games after the season in which he was 40 (Phil Niekro (100) and Nolan Ryan (63) are the only 300-game winners with more wins after the season in which they were 40).  Thus, Tom Glavine’s numbers or the Quartet’s average, which is very similar, would seem to be the most relevant for comparison purposes.

As for the current crop of thirteen, we can readily eliminate the least likely candidates.  Jamie Moyer’s major league career is on extreme life support (while he hasn’t officially retired, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since last May 27th and hasn’t pitched in AAA since July 3rd).  Even if he can find another team that will give him a go in early 2013, it’s hard to believe he can last long enough to win another 31 games.

Andy Pettitte’s prospects of reaching 300 don’t look a whole lot better.  Even assuming that Pettitte returns to the Yankees in 2013, which at present seems more likely than not, he will have average 14 wins a season for the next four years (his average for the five seasons from 2006 through 2010 immediately preceding his first retirement) from age 41 to 44.  The only way I can see Pettitte sticking around that long is if he miraculously wins 20 in 2013 and gets it into his mind that he reasonably could win 300 if he hangs around.  Seems like slim odds.

We can fairly eliminate Tim Hudson, simply because he’s a year older than and a couple of wins behind Roy Halladay, who at 199 wins through age 35 is already 25 wins behind Glavine at the same age and 20 behind the Quartet average.  While Hudson has racked up 51 wins in the three-plus seasons since his major arm surgery in 2008 (Tommy John elbow ligament transplant), his innings pitched and strikeout rate were way down in 2012, which makes me think he’ll be hard pressed to make it to 40.

We can eliminate Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain and Clayton Kershaw for essentially the same reason.  Weaver is 22 wins behind Justin Verlander at the same age; and Hamels, Greinke and Cain are significantly behind Felix Hernandez at older ages.

Clayton Kershaw needs to win 37 games the next two seasons to be where Hernandez is now.  Let’s leave Kershaw out of the conversation until he does so.

Of the remaining five, Mark Buehrle seems the least likely to win 300.  In Buehrle’s defense, he has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, pitching at least 200 innings in all twelve of his seasons as a starting pitcher.  Even at his consistent pace of 13 wins a year, he could win 300 if he can become the next Tommy John/Jamie Moyer.

However, if Buehrle’s measurements (6’2″ and 245 lbs) are accurate, I just don’t see him making 30 starts a year every year for the next decade.  If any pitcher is likely to pitch well into his 40′s, it’s Roy Halladay, not Buehrle, simply because of their relative body types and the fact that Halladay is a much better pitcher.

Halladay missed about eight starts in 2012 due to what was initially called a shoulder strain but was later diagnosed as a latissimus dorsi strain.  Assuming that there isn’t anything wrong with his pitching shoulder or his spinal cord, there’s no reason why Halladay can’t return to top form in 2013 and beyond.  Even with his problems in 2012, he still struck out 7.6 hitters per nine innings and had 3.7 Ks for each walk.

In fact, I like Halladay’s chances of reaching 300 wins more than I like C.C. Sabathia’s, even though Sabathia is only eight wins behind Halladay, four years younger and ahead of every player in the Quartet at the same age.  I just can’t see a pitcher of C.C.’s size (6’7″ and 290 lbs) making 30 starts a season past the age of about 36.  In other words, I think the odds are better than even that Halladay will be a better pitcher at age 41 and 42, than Sabathia will be at age 37 and 38.

At age 31 in 2012, C.C. was already starting to show the strain.  He missed five starts this year due to a mid-season groin strain.   He’ll be 32 in 2013, the age at which players his size really begin to find it hard to stay in the line-up or rotation day after day or turn after turn.  If not in 2013, then certainly starting in 2014 or 2015, we will hear about C.C. missing time due to a groin strain, a knee or ankle injury or back problems each and every season.

That leaves Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.  I like Verlander’s chances of winning 300 more than either Halladay or Hernandez.

Verlander is approaching age 30 at the top of his game, he’s got a huge fast ball that has been clocked as high as 100 mph, and he strikes hitters out.  The latter two characteristics are particularly important when trying to project how long a pitcher’s career will last.   That’s no knock on Halladay or Hernandez, but the fact remains that Verlander’s strikeout rates are better.  If Verlander wins 16 games in 2013, which is fewer than he’s won in any of the last four seasons, he’ll be slightly ahead of Tom Glavine’s pace or the Quartet’s average through age 30.

Even if Felix Hernandez averages only 13 wins a season for the next three seasons (his average over the last three seasons playing for some meek Mariner teams), he will be significantly ahead of Verlander through age 29.  My concerns about Hernandez are two fold.

First, he’s thrown a lot of innings before the season in which he was 25.  History suggests that pitchers who do so are no longer around by their late 30′s.  In fact, Hernandez’s ERAs in 2011 and 2012 were up by almost a run compared to 2009 and 2010, although his strikeout rates have at least remained consistent.  He also looks like he’s more prone to putting on weight as he ages than Verlander.

At this moment, all of Verlander, Hernandez, Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia have a reasonable chance of winning 300 games.  It seems to me more likely than not that at least one of them will do so.

Japanese Players Most Likely to Join MLB in 2013

While it’s still the post-season, and the off-season wheeling and dealing has not yet begun in earnest, it seems like a good time for a post on which Japanese stars we are most likely to see crossing the pond to the U.S. for the 2013 season.

Also, given the bargains that Wei-Yin Chen, Norichika Aoki and Hisashi Iwakuma turned out to be for the MLB teams that signed them last off-season, I expect that the market for Japanese players will be up this off-season compared to last.

There are only two ways a Japanese NPB veteran can come to MLB: (1) he becomes an international free agent after nine years of service in NPB; or (2) his NPB team “posts” him for MLB teams to bid on the exclusive right to negotiate a possible contract with the player.  Under the posting system, the NPB team only receives the winning posting bid if the player successfully signs a contract with the high-bidding MLB team.

Further complicating the matter is that fact that NPB players now become “domestic” free agents after eight NPB seasons, which means that after eight seasons an NPB player can sign a contract with another NPB team (although the signing team must provide the former team with compensation), but cannot sign with an MLB team.

More on the financial structure of NPB is useful here.  NPB is sharply divided into two tiers of teams: a smaller group of teams that are highly profitable (or at least breaking even) and a larger group of teams that survive only because they are heavily subsidized for advertizing and publicity purposes by their corporate owners/sponsors.

Over the last three seasons (2010 through 2012), here are the average annual attendance figures (in millions) for NPB’s twelve teams:

Hanshin Tigers 2.88; Yomiuri Giants 2.86; Fukuoka Softbank Hawks 2.30; Chunichi Dragons 2.14; Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters 1.93

Hiroshima Toyo Carp 1.59; Saitama Seibu Lions 1.57;  Orix Buffaloes 1.39; Chiba Lotte Marines 1.37; Tokyo Yakult Swallows 1.33; Yokahama DeNA Bay Stars 1.16; Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles 1.16.

[Raw attendance figures come from yakyubaka.com -- e.g. here.  Note also that while NPB teams play 72 home dates per season, while MLB teams play 81, in 2012 five of the twelve NPB teams drew fewer than 20,000 fans per game, while only three of MLB's 30 teams drew fewer than 20,000 per game.  Also, NPB overall attendance is down slightly each of the last two seasons, while MLB's attendance is up.]

The effect of this division in team revenues has been obvious with respect to the posting system.  The Yomiuri Giants and the Softbank Hawks are the only two clubs never to have posted a player, and the four highest drawing teams have posted only two of the twenty players posted during the history of the posting system.

Nevertheless, once they become true (9-year) free agents, players for the wealthiest teams have frequently elected to sign with MLB teams, presumably to play against a higher level of competition, to receive at least the possibility of higher MLB salaries, and to escape the more rigorous training regimens and greater interference in their personal lives which NPB teams generally impose.

With all that said and in mind, here is my list of current NPB players most likely to make the jump to MLB for the 2013 season.

SS Hiroyuki Nakajima.  The Seibu Lions’ shortstop should have become a major leaguer last off-season, but failed to reach agreement on a contract with the New York Yankees, who won with a $2.5 million bid when the Lions posted him.  The Yankees didn’t need Nakajimi, since they already have highly paid superstars at SS, 2nd and 3rd, and placed the high bid most likely only because other teams were afraid to bid more after the Twins’ bid & signing of Tsuyoshi Nishioka before the 2011 season turned out to be a disaster.

Because so few players come over from Japan each off-season, particularly position players, teams give too much weight to the previous year’s signings.  However, as mentioned above, Norichika Aoki’s bargain signing by the Brewers last off-season should help Nakajima substantially this off-season.

Nakajima is now a true free agent, which means no posting fee, and he had another fine season in Japan.  He finished second in NPB’s Pacific League in each of batting average (.313), on-base percentage (.382) and OPS (.833)(it was a another terrible year for offensive in NPB — no wonder attendance is down there).  He will be 30 years old next season, so he’s still at or reasonably close to his prime.

After failing to sign with the Yankees last off-season, Nakajima re-signed with Seibu for a reported $3.64 million.  Two of the sticking points with the Yankees were Nakajima’s insistence on a three-year deal at the end of which he would become an MLB free agent.  Presumably then, a three-year deal worth at least $10 million at the end of which Nakajima becomes a free agent again would be required for Nakajima to sign with a major league team.

RHP Kyuji Fujikawa.  The long-time Hanshin Tigers’ closer is also a true free agent this off-season and is reportedly interested in exploring opportunities to pitch in the U.S.

Fujikawa turns 33 next July 21st, and he appears to have had some minor injury problems in 2012, which limited him to his lowest games pitched, innings pitched, saves, K/IP and K/BB rates since 2004.  Even so, he still managed to save 24 games, post a 1.32 ERA, strike out 11.0 batters per nine innings and record 3.9 strikeouts for each walk allowed.  With a career 1.77 ERA, 11.9 Ks per nine IP and 4.4 strikeouts for each walk, it’s hard to imagine that he would not be a great addition to a major league team’s bullpen.

The Hanshin Tigers have said they hope to resign Fujikawa, and they have the money to match a major league team’s offer, if they choose to do so.  As such, whether or not Fujikawa signs with a major league team, may have more to do with how much Fujikawa wants to test his skills in MLB than the financial aspect.

SS Takashi Toritani.  Another true free agent, Toritani is a fine player, but thirteen months older than Hiroyuki Nakajima.  Toritani hit only .262 this past season, but his .373 on-base percentage was fifth best in NPB’s Central League, and he has a career average of .282 and an OBP just over .360.

There is concern in some quarters about the drop in Toritani’s power numbers the last two years since new pitcher-friendly baseballs were introduced in NPB.  The drop off in power relative to Nakajima probably has more to do with the fact that Toritani is a year older.

What I have been able to find on the internet indicates that there is some doubt among major league scouts whether either Nakajima or Toritani provides major league defense at shortstop.  Instead, their value would appear to be as relatively high on-base percentage utility infielders who could play at 2nd, 3rd and SS as needed.

The chances are reasonably good that Toritani will get a better offer from his current team, the Hanshin Tigers, than what a major league team will offer him.

2B Kensuke Tanaka.  Tanaka is another true free agent, and he reportedly is interested in coming to the U.S.  However, his career .342 OBP is approximately twenty points lower than Toritani and almost 30 lower than Nakajima. Also, his 2012 season ended with an elbow injury caused by a collision with Nakajima at second base.

RHPs Masahiro Tanaka and Kenta Maeda.  Tanaka and Maeda remain NPB’s top two MLB pitching prospects since the Rangers signed Yu Darvish.  Tanaka is ultimately the better prospect, but for reasons I’ll explain below the odds are probably better for Maeda to be the one posted this off-season, if either are.

Masahiro Tanaka missed four or five starts this year due to an early season hip injury, which limited him to 173 innings pitched.  Even so, he finished second in the Pacific League in ERA (1.87) and first in strike outs (169).  Nevertheless, there is a good chance the Rakuten Golden Eagles will hold onto him at least one more year to see if he can put up another season like 2011, when his numbers very nearly matched Yu Darvish’s as the best in NPB.

Certainly, Tanaka’s value would then be at its highest, particularly considering that he will still be only 25 in 2014.

Kenta Maeda’s 2012 season was terrific.  He led the Central League in ERA (1.53) by 45 points and was the only pitcher in the Central League to pitch more than 200 innings, the third year in a row he has done so.  He was second in the league with 14 wins, and his 171 strike outs was good for third best, only one strike out behind co-leaders Toshiya Sugiuchi of the Yomiuri Giants and Atsushi Nomi of the Hanshin Tigers.

Maeda has completed five NPB seasons and will be 25 next year.  The reason the Hiroshima Carp may decide to post him this year is that his posting value may now be at its all-time high.  The main knock on Maeda is his body type.  He’s listed as 6’0″ and 161 lbs (about Tim Lincecum’s size), compared to 6’2″ and 205 lbs for Masahiro Tanaka.

After three consecutive seasons of 200+ innings pitched, I don’t think any further such performances will do anything to convince major league executives that Maeda is any less of a risk going forward.  In other words, his posting value is probably greatest now while Maeda is still young and not showing any effects from the heavy work load.

The Ten Greatest Seasons Played for Terrible Teams: Part I

Back in 2003, the Detroit Tigers were astoundingly bad.  They finished 43-119, the worst record of any major league team since the expansion New York Mets of 1962 (40-120).

As bad as they were, the Tigers had one player who had a terrific year that season: Dmitri Young.  On a team with almost no hitting, Young hit .297 with 29 HRs and a .909 OPS.  He was far and away the best performer on that team, and his performance that lost season was something I always remembered Dmitri for.

I thought it would be fun to compile a list of the best seasons by players playing on truly awful teams since 1901.  My list is, of course, subjective, with extra credit going to players on truly the worst teams and to those players who did something particularly noteworthy.

Also, one of the most difficult things to do in baseball is for a pitcher to win games and post a strong winning percentage on teams that don’t win.  Thus, I gave pitchers special credit for wins and winning percentage.

Here goes in reverse order.

10 (Tie).  Randy Johnson for the 2004 Diamondbacks (51-111); Felix Hernandez for the 2010 Mariners (61-101).  Randy Johnson went 16-14 with a 2.60 ERA (2nd) and 290 strikeouts (1st).  Randy had the highest pitcher’s WAR (8.1) in the NL that year.  Even so, the D-Backs went 16-19 in his 35 starts, a .457 winning percentage, compared to 35-92 (.276) when someone else started.  As I said, it is extremely difficult for a pitcher to win games for a terrible team, no matter how well he pitches.

King Felix was the Cy Young Award winner in the Junior Circuit in 2010, despite a mediocre 13-12 record, because he led the AL in ERA (2.27) and pitcher’s WAR (6.8) and was only one off the lead in strikeouts (232).  The Mariners went 17-17 (.500) in the games Hernandez started, as opposed to 44-84 (.344) when someone else started.

Honorable Mention: Rick Reuschel for the 1985 Pirates (57-104); and Wilber Cooper for the 1917 Pirates (51-103). Reuschel went 14-8 with a 2.27 ERA (4th) for a bad Pirates team.  Wilber Cooper went 17-11 with a 2.36 ERA for another bad Pirates team.

9.  Frank Thomas for the 1962 Mets (40-120).  The ’62 Mets were the the worst team in living memory and is still fondly recalled by those old enough as a collection of players too old or too lacking in talent to beat anyone.  While that is mainly true, 33 year old left fielder Frank Thomas had his last great season as a successful major league slugger.

Thomas’ 34 HRs and 94 RBIs led the Mets in those categories by 18 and 35, respectively.  Even so, there wasn’t much Thomas could do to help a team this bad win.  For example, Thomas had five games in which he hit two home runs that year, all of which the Mets lost.

Thomas was also the best player on a couple of bad Pirates teams in the mid-1950′s.

8.  Ralph Kiner for the 1952 Pirates (42-112) and the 1950 Pirates (57-96).  Ralph Kiner is remembered to this day for the fine seasons he had for some truly awful Pirates teams in the late 1940′s and early 1950′s.  1950 and 1952 are the best examples.

For the 1952 Pirates, the third worst team in terms of winning percentage since WWII, after the 1962 Mets and the 2003 Tigers, Kiner hit 37 HRs, good enough to tie for the league lead with that year’s NL MVP Hank Sauer.  Although Kiner hit only .244 that season, he led the Senior Circuit with 110 walks and finished with the league’s sixth best on-base percentage.

The 1950 Pirates were a much better team, relatively speaking, than the 1952 Pirates, but Kiner also had a much better season.  His 47 HRs lead the NL by 11, and his .998 OPS was second only to Stan Musial’s 1.034.

Kiner’s outfield defense was terrible, but his combination of power and walks was so prodigious that it eventually got him elected to the Hall of Fame.

7.  Ichiro Suzuki for the 2004 Mariners (63-99).  A number of players have won batting titles for last place teams; I rank Ichiro’s 2004 campaign as the best of the bunch.

Ichiro led the Junior Circuit with a .372 batting average and 9.0 WAR that year and set the single season hits record with 262.  Despite getting himself on base more than 300 times that season and running well enough to steal 36 bases in 47 attempts, Ichiro still scored only 101 runs, which says a lot about what the rest of the Mariners’ line up was doing that year.

Honorable Mention: Tony Gwynn for the 1987 Padres (65-97) and Edgar Martinez for the 1992 Mariners (64-98).  Gwynn led the NL with a .370 batting average and 8.3 WAR and also stole 56 bases (2nd).  Martinez the AL with a .343 batting average and hit 18 HRs; his .948 OPS was third best in the Junior Circuit.

6.  Chuck Klein for the 1933 Phillies (60-92).   Chuck Klein won the Triple Crown that year with a .368 batting average, 28 HRs and 120 RBIs.  He also lead the Senior Circuit in on-base percentage (.422) and slugging percentage (.602) that year.

Klein would rank higher on this list, except that he played his home games in the Baker Bowl, perhaps the best hitters’ park for left-handed sluggers in MLB history, at least since 1910.  The Baker Bowl was 280 feet down the right-field foul line and little more than 300 feet to right center, relying on a 60 foot high right-field wall to keep balls in the yard.

In fact, in 1933 Klein had a 1.305 OPS at home at the Baker Bowl but only a .774 OPS on the road.  Wow!  That puts Coors Field to shame.  Over his major league career, Klein’s home OPS was more than 200 points better than his road OPS, and after he was traded to the Cubs in 1934, he ceased to be a great player, although injuries and age also played a part in his decline as a hitter.

Also, the 1933 Phillies were not nearly as bad as some of the other teams on this list.

Stay tuned for Part II of this two-part series.