Contemporary Minor League Stars, Part II

Continuing on with my list of contemporary minor league stars, who I define as players with at least 4,000 plate appearances in the high minors (AA and AAA) on the theory that they had to be pretty good ballplayers to last that long.  Part I of this series can be found here.

3.  Scott McClain (5,160 AAA plate appearances, 800 AA and 88 MLB).  Before wrapping up his professional career at age 37 at the end of the 2009 season, McClain played a whopping 20 seasons of pro ball.  His 5,160 plate appearances at the AAA level was the most of any contemporary player I could find.

McClain hit 292 home runs in the minor leagues and another 89 in Japan’s NPB.  However, he only hit two HRs in the major leagues during cups of the coffee with the Rays in 1998, the Cubs in 2005 and the Giants in 2oo7 and 2008.

McClain played mostly 1B and 3B and didn’t become a great AAA hitter until he was age 26.  He was at least able to make some money in his professional career by playing five season in Japan’s NPB, where American players generally earn at least the major league minimum.

4.  Andy Tracy (4,519 AAA, 1,247 AA, 314 MLB).  Another great minor league thumper, Tracy has hit 296 minor league home runs but only 13 in the show.

Tracy wasn’t highly regarded as a prospect out of college (Bowling Green in Ohio) and thus played four years in college before signing with a major league franchise.  He had a huge year in the Eastern League at age 25, which got him substantial playing time the next year for the 2000 Montreal Expos.  He got into 83 games that year and hit .260 with 11 HRs and an .824 OPS, excellent for a rookie.

However, Tracy got off to a dreadful start in 2001, hitting only .109 with a .427 OPS in 38 games before being sent down the minors, except for the briefest cups of coffee in 2004, 2008 and 2009 (a total of only 33 plate appearances), for good.  Like McClain, Tracy played mostly 1B and 3B, and was a great AAA hitter for years.

Tracy’s last season was 2011, when he hit .288 with a .987 OPS in 85 games for the Reno Aces of the AAA Pacific Coast League.  Reno is a great place to hit, but Tracy’s numbers are so impressive that I have to think that it was accumulated injuries (Tracy was 37 that year) that ended his professional career.  For what it’s worth, I saw Tracy take Carlos Marmol deep in a game in New Orleans between the Zephyrs and the Iowa Cubs in May 2007.

5.  Mike Cervenak.  (3,785 AAA, 2,091 AA, 13 MLB).  One of my favorite contemporary minor league stars, I’ve written about Cervenak before here and here.  He’s playing in Taiwan this year, most likely finishing out his pro career at 36.  He’s hit 192 minor league home runs.

6.  Cody Ransom (4,455 AAA, 554 AA, 687+ MLB).  Another one of my favorite contemporary minor league stars, almost certainly because, like Cervenak, Ransom’s a former Giants prospect.  However, unlike Cervenak, who never really got a fair shot with the Gints, Ransom was once a highly regarded prospect even though he was 9th round draft pick.  The Giants like toolsy prospects, and Cody had tools.

As I’ve written before a number of times, Cody is one of those rare players who developed significantly as a professional hitter after age 27, and he got his first significant major league playing time last year at the ripe old age of 37 (282 plate appearances for the Brewers and Diamondbacks after never getting more than 86 in any of his nine prior major league part-seasons).

Cody, or “Babe” as I like to call him, started the 2013 campaign with the San Diego Padres, but they designated him for assignment after he started the year 0-for-11.  The Cubs claimed him off waivers and in three games he’s off to a 4-for-9 start with home run, two doubles and a walk.  Given his red hot start as a Cubbie, and the fact that Wrigley Field is a great place for a guy with power like Ransom, there’s a good chance he’ll stick around in Chicago for a while.  It doesn’t hurt that the 2013 Cubs look to be a bad team in need of players who can hit a little.

7.  Kevin Barker (5,140 AAA, 1,320 AA, 323 MLB).  Another minor league bomber, Barker hit 271 minor league home runs (but only six in the Show), finishing his professional career in 2011 for the Oaxaco Guerreros (“Warriors”) of the Mexican League.

Barker got into 78 games for the Brewers in 1999 and 2000 at ages 23 and 24, but he didn’t hit the second year, and got only a few cups of coffee after that.  His best minor league season was probably 2009 when he hit 22 HRs and had a .927 OPS in 101 games for the AAA Louisville Bats.

8.  Michael Restovich (3,503 AAA, 565 AA, 297 MLB).  A former Twins prospect, Restovich hit 214 minor league home runs, but only six in the majors.  He was a fine minor league hitter who just didn’t hit in the limited major league opportunities he got.  His professional career ended in 2011.

9.  Chris Richard (3,192 AAA, 1,065 AA, 1,006).  Originally drafted by the Cardinals, at age 27 Richard played 136 games for the 2001 Orioles in which he hit .265 with 15 HRs and a .770 OPS, while playing RF, CF, 1B and DH (a very unusual combination).  He didn’t hit well in 2002, however, and that was the end of his major league career except for cups of coffee with the 2003 Rockies and the 2009 Rays.  Richard slugged 198 minor league HRs in addition to his 34 major league jacks.  His professional career ended in 2010.

10.  Jeff Bailey (2,995 AAA, 1,826 AA, 159 MLB).  Yet another minor league slugger, he hit 191 minor league dingers but only six in the Show.  Bailey spent parts of six seasons with the Pawtucket Red Sox from 2004 through 2009 and got three cups of coffee from the true Red Sox the last three of those seasons.  He finished his professional career with the Rochester Red Wings in 2011.

11.  Tike Redman (3,549 AAA, 724 AA, 1,461 MLB).  Just in case you were thinking all contemporary minor league stars were sluggers, Redman was a center fielder who just wasn’t quite good enough on either side of the ball to have a long major league career.  However, the Pirates certainly gave him opportunities, as his 1,461 career major league plate appearances attest.

12.  Luis Figueroa (4,682 AAA, 1,602 AA, 16 MLB).  A shortstop who apparently hit just well enough to be a AAA starter for years and whose glove, I presume, wasn’t quite good enough to make him a major league late inning defensive replacement, Figueroa’s North American career appears to have ended last year with the Oaxaca Guerreros.  He got three major league cups of coffee in 2001, 2006, 2007, but appeared in a total of only 18 major league games.

13-16.  Joe Thurston (4,868 AAA, 633 AA, 384 MLB), Esteban German (3,720, 511, 1,170), Ray Olmedo (3,381, 734, 484) and Bobby Scales (3,342, 708, 158).  A quartet of middle infielders/jacks-of-all-trades.

Thurston got into 124 games for the 2009 Cardinals but didn’t hit.  German was a briefly hot prospect who played semi-regularly for the Royals from 2006 through 2008 but hit worse each successive year — he’s now playing in Japan.  Olmedo looks like a classic glove-tree shortstop who didn’t hit much even at AAA, but stuck around because of his defensive acrobatics.

Bobby Scales was a fine minor league hitter who played a lot of different positions but probably not well enough at 2B or 3B to keep him in the majors.  He had a .373 on-base percentage last year for Japan’s Orix Buffaloes, but the team didn’t bring him back in 2013, probably because he didn’t hit for power and his defense wasn’t very good.

I strongly suspect there are other contemporary minor league stars I have failed to identify, and I invite you to send in comments identifying them.  However, I think I’ve made a point: there are still a large number of minor league stars in today’s game playing great ball at the AAA level, who either through bad luck, late development or by virtue of being just a hair below the talent level of major leaguers have spent most of their long professional careers in the minor leagues.

Tampa Bay Rays Need a New Stadium

I read an interesting post on mlbtraderumors.com today about the Rays’ attendance woes.  Apparently, the Rays are contractually locked in to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg through 2027, but there is doubt whether the team will actually remain there that long given the way the park is killing their attendance.

Despite 90 or more win seasons the last two years, making the playoffs in 2011 and just missing last year, the Rays were 29th and 30th in per game attendance.  Since becoming a consistent winner starting with the 2008 season, the Rays’ average attendance rose to 26th, then 23rd and 22nd, before falling back to the bottom despite continuing to win.

The Rays’ drawing problem clearly has nothing to do with the market.  Wikipedia lists Tampa Bay as the 18th largest metropolitan area in the country, and the team’s TV ratings last year were right in the middle of the MLB pack.  Given that some MLB teams play in very small markets like Kansas City, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Cincinnati, not to mention the Rays’ recent run of success, the team should be drawing at least in the top 15, if not higher.

The problem is obviously the ball park, not only because it is non-retractable dome but also because its location within the Tampa Bay region is not ideal.

Tropicana Field was completed in 1990, before the first of the modern (yet retro-styled) ballparks was built (the Baltimore Orioles’ Camden Yards opened in 1992), and it seemingly has more in common with the deservedly maligned Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodrome in Minneapolis than any of the next/current generation of baseball parks despite being a baseball-only stadium.  Perhaps a bigger problem is that the team should be playing closer to Tampa, the center of population for the region.

My guess is that the Rays will remain trapped in Tropicana Field well into the 2020′s, if not all the way until the lease runs in 2027.  Aside from the fact it would take time to build a new stadium, there is the age-old question regarding who would pay for it.

I can’t see the State of Florida or either the cities of Tampa or St. Petersburg paying for a new, baseball only stadium, not when there is an existing stadium in place less than 40 years old.  The Rays had a plan for a new stadium elsewhere in St. Petersburg but that was abandoned as a result of substantial opposition in 2009.

The City of St. Petersburg says it intends to hold the Rays to their lease and will only consider allowing the Rays out of their lease in favor of another ball park built inside the city, but, of course, St. Pete and its residents aren’t likely to want to pay for a new ballpark.  If the Rays are going to have to contribute to the cost of a new stadium, they are going to want a park north of the city closer to where the population is.

Another Home Plate Collision

Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated wrote an article today stating his opinion that base runners should not be able to run into the catcher at home plate after Desmond Jennings bowled over Indians catcher Lou Marson in Sunday’s Rays-Indians game.  Marson has since been placed on the 15-day disable list with a neck strain caused by the collision.

I have long been an advocate of reducing the number of home plate collisions.  See here and here.  However, I don’t agree with Verducci’s tacit conclusion that the rules should make the base runner solely responsible for avoiding collisions.  In my opinion the rules should be changed to strictly bar catchers from setting up or moving into the base line before they actually have the ball in their mitts.

Here is the video of the Jennings-Marson collision.  You can’t see it in the first angle, but in the replay from a different angle you can see that Marson sets up in front of home plate before receiving the throw.  The throw does not pull Marson into the baseline, because Marson is already there.

In fact, because Marson is blocking the plate, Jennings actually begins launching himself for the collision a fraction of a second before the throw hits Marson’s mitt.  With Marson blocking the plate well before the throw arrives, the only chance Jennings has of scoring is to launch his body into Marson.

I’m all in favor of barring base runners from launching their bodies above the waist into catchers in the manner than Jennings does here, but only if catchers are also barred from moving into the base line until the ball is actually in their mitts.  If such a rule had been in effect and obeyed by Marson, then Jennings would have had at least some chance of scoring by sliding to the outside of home plate and hoping that he could beat Marson moving with the ball in his catcher’s mitt to tag him out. If the ball gets to home plate soon enough, Jennings is out.  If not, then Jennings scores by tagging the outside part of the plate.

A rule which allows the catcher to block the plate but forbids the runner from coming in high will most likely shift injuries from catchers to base runners rather than preventing injuries all together.  Sliding into a fixed object (the catcher) blocking home plate is going to cause injuries to base runners.

Schadenfreude

For those of you not up on your German, schadenfreude is the taking of pleasure in the misfortunes of some one else.  In this case, the misfortunes are happening to the New York Yankees, and I’m not exactly sad about it at all.

J. A. Happ broke Curtis Granderson‘s arm with a wild inside pitch in a Spring Training game today, and Granderson will miss ten weeks while his arm heals.  I’m certainly not saying I’m happy about Granderson getting hurt.  I don’t wish that any player get hurt. Also, Granderson’s a great player, and I always want great players to stay healthy and play.

It’s just that I find it hard not to take a certain pleasure when bad things happen to the Yankees as a franchise.  They spend so much money to buy up the best players, and the team and its fans are disappointed any year they don’t win the World Series, even if they go deep into the post-season.  As a fan of a team that had a long, long stretch of futility before the last three seasons, it’s hard not to enjoy seeing the Yankees fall flat on their collective faces once in a while.  See how the rest of us live, you New York blowhards!

Everything seems to be going wrong for the Yankees right now.  They have gotten old and so overpaid that the team can’t (or won’t — see below) simply spend to bring in a whole new line-up of new stars, as they did under the Boss.

Derek Jeter is old and coming off a broken ankle.  Alex Rodriguez will miss at least half the year after hip surgery and is embroiled in another steroid scandal.  Mark Teixeira isn’t the player he once was, and at age 33 isn’t likely to be that player again.  C. C. Sabathia in 2012 showed signs of the injury problems many analysts, including his one, have been been expecting for a pitcher his size now in his 30′s.

In a rare confluence of events, not only the Yankees, but also the Red Sox, look like they won’t make the play-offs in 2013.  The Sox lost 93 games last year, and they don’t at all look a team that will suddenly turn around and win 90+ games in 2013.

Meanwhile, the underdogs may finally be ready to have their days.  The Blue Jays made several big moves this off-season at what appears now to have been a particularly opportune time for them to do so.  Maybe they’ll make the post-season for the first time since they won the World Series in 1993.

The 2012 Orioles made the post-season for the first time since 1997, and they have a relatively young team that will presumably get better.

The Rays are one of MLB’s smallest market teams, but they make the most out of what they have to work with and can be expected to contend again in 2013.

The last time neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox made the post-season (excluding the strike-shortened 1994 season in which the Yankees finished with the best record in the American League) was 1993.  It’s long past time that someone else get the opportunity to fight it out in the play-offs.

That being said, the underdogs better make hay while the sun shines.  If the Yankees and Red Sox finish no higher than third in the Eastern Division, expect them to start shelling out again next off-season.  Their potential revenue streams (and in the case of the Yankees the fact that so many of their fans are front-runners) are such that it’s worth it for them to spend big on free agents if that’s what it takes to reach those play-off revenues.

Michael Bourn Gets Burned

The Indians have reportedly signed center fielder Michael Bourn to a four-year deal for $48 million.  While Bourn won’t be going to bed hungry any time soon, this deal is a disaster for him and his agent Scott Boras, given that the majority opinion was that Bourn was the best true center fielder available in this year’s free agent class.

The obvious comparison is with B. J. Upton, who got five years at a guaranteed $75.25 million from the Braves earlier this off-season.  Yes, Upton is two years younger than Bourn, but Bourn has been much better last year and the last three years.

In 2012, fangraphs rated Bourn’s performance as worth $28.9 million and Upton’s at $15.0 million.  Over the last three seasons, fangraphs rated Bourn’s performance as worth $66.2 million and Upton’s at $49.9 million.

Strangely, fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan thinks both the Indians and Bourn got good deals out of this signing.  I just don’t see it.

Even taking into account that much of Bourn’s value comes from his center field defense and the facts that he’s getting older and his defense is likely to slide in the next few seasons, Bourn looks like the kind of player who will be a more valuable lead-off hitter in years to come.  Bourn still runs extremely well (ten triples and 42 stolen bases in 55 attempts last season), he hit with more power than ever in his career (his nine home runs nearly doubled his career total), and he gets on base fairly well for a lead-off hitter who runs as well as he does (.348 OBP last year, and between .341 and .354 the previous three years).

I will admit, however, that Bourn is not an ideal lead-off hitter, due to his relatively low on-base percentages.  Bourn has not scored 100 runs in any of the last four seasons despite averaging 677 plate appearances per year and leading the NL in stolen bases in three of those seasons.  Wade Boggs, who ran like a slug, scored 100 or more runs in seven consecutive seasons because he got on base roughly 45% of his plate appearances.

Even so, the fact that Bourn got less than four years and $60 million has to be seen as a failure by his agent Scott Boras.  In fact, it’s not clear at all that the Braves decided they wanted Upton over Bourn.  Early in the off-season, Bourn/Boras were throwing up pie-in-the-sky contract numbers, and the Braves simply went out and got the next best player, for what at the time seemed like a more reasonable amount.

Would the Braves back in November have been willing to give Bourn the same contract they gave Upton?  I don’t have much doubt they would have.

Boras has generally been so good at turning what looked like a bad situation into a huge contract that I wasn’t willing to write him off until a relatively bad contract was actually signed.  Well, that bad contract has now been signed.  Boras overplayed Bourn’s hand, and Bourn will have to live with it — he’ll be crying all the way to the bank.

The new draft pick compensation scheme agreed upon by the owners and players’ association looks like a win for the owners.  The Mets almost certainly would have given Bourn more than what the Indians won with, but they were concerned about losing a first round draft pick (and the signing bonus pool money) despite finishing with the tenth worst record in MLB last season, thanks to the Pirates’ failure to sign Mark Appel, another Boras client, with the eighth pick of last year’s draft.

While the owners probably would have struck a deal to let the Mets keep their 2013 first round pick, even reaching that stage required the players’ association to file a grievance after the Mets signed Bourn (you can’t file a grievance or any other legal claim for a hypothetical injury), and this fact likely impacted the contract the Mets were willing to offer Bourn.

2013 should be an interesting season for the Indians.  Even with the additions of Brett Myers, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Trevor Bauer, their pitching still looks pretty weak, although Bourn in center should help a lot in that regard.

At a minimum, Ubaldo Jimenez will have to bounce back to the pitcher he was in 2009 and 2010, Justin Masterson will have to return to 2011 form, and Zach McAllister has to improve on his fine 2012 rookie season for the Tribe to be successful in 2013.  Seems like a tall order.

As a final and largely unrelated note, the Felix Hernandez contract extension seemed like a good move for both sides, at least until medical tests suggested a problem with King Felix’s pitching elbow.  Despite all the talk of record-setting contracts, the extension really only promised Hernandez $139.5 million in new money, while giving him the ego bump of a record-setting contract and allowing the Mariners to control him through age 33, which is just about ideal for a pitcher of his caliber.

My biggest concern with a long-term extension for Hernandez was all the innings he’s pitched before age 25.  Needless to say, it’s not particularly surprising that his elbow is showing wear after all the innings he’s pitched in his career to date.

Elijah Dukes Arrested on Warrant for Eating Bag of Marijuana

Remember Elijah Dukes?  He was once a highly regarded prospect for the Tampa Bay Rays and the Washington Nationals who apparently washed out of professional baseball in 2010 because of his problems off the field and, perhaps, his conduct in the locker room.

The Rays drafted Dukes in the 3rd round of the 2002 Draft.  In 2007 at age 23, he got 220 plate appearances for the Rays, and while he hit only .190, he also slugged ten home runs.

2007 was also eventful for Dukes off the playing field.  In May, his wife sought a restraining order against him for threatening her life and their children.  In June, it was reported that Dukes had impregnated a 17 year old foster child of one of his relatives and threw a bottle of Gatorade at the girl when she informed him of the pregnancy.  Luckily for Dukes, the sex was consensual and the age of consent in Florida is below 18 years of age.

The Rays decided that Dukes needed a change of scenery and traded him to Nats for a Glenn Gibson, a minor league pitcher who never pitched higher than the A+ level.  The Nats hired a former police officer as a “Special Assistant: Player Concerns” whose job was to tail Dukes and keep him out of trouble.

In 2008, at age 24, Dukes rewarded the Nats with a season in which he hit .264 with a terrific .864 OPS in 81 games.  At that point he looked like a future star.

However, Dukes hit only .250 with a .729 OPS in 2009.  Still, he was only 25 years old, and his future looked bright.

While Dukes had apparently stayed out of trouble off the field after being acquired by the Nationals, the team didn’t consider him a positive influence in the clubhouse.  On March 17, 2010, in the middle of Spring Training, the Nationals gave Dukes his unconditional release.

While Nats’ General Manager Mike Rizzo said that the decision was performance-based (Dukes was 3 for 20 at the plate that Spring), Rizzo was also quoted as saying, “The clubhouse will be more united.  We’ll have a better feel around the ballclub. We’ll gain just by that alone.”  Rizzo also said the Nats would be a “more cohesive group” without Dukes.

Strangely, no other major league franchise would give Dukes another chance, in spite of his age and obvious ability as a hitter.  He reportedly reached a deal to play in the Mexican League, but then backed out after not showing up for the reporting date.

In early July 2010, he signed with the Newark Bears of the Independent A Atlantic League.  In 116 plate appearances over 28 games, Dukes hit .366 with a 1.007 OPS, but no major league organization was willing to give him another chance.

Dukes was arrested in November 2010 for failing to pay child support, and in March 2011, he was arrested again for assaulting a pregnant ex-girlfriend.  That was the end of any future baseball career for Dukes.

In February 2012, Dukes was arrested for drug possession and destruction of evidence when he tried to eat a bag of marijuana after the cops pulled him over.  He apparently failed to appear in court, because he was arrested yesterday on that warrant and also for driving on a suspended license.

In similar news, another of my all-time favorite clubhouse cancers, Milton Bradley, is facing the possibility of 13 years in prison for multiple alleged assaults against his estranged wife.  In one incident in November 2012, he is accused of pushing his wife up against a wall and choking her after she allegedly requested that he stop smoking marijuana in front of their children.  You can’t make this stuff up.

While Bradley got far more chances than Dukes got, and certainly far more than Bradley deserved in spite of his enormous batting talent, this blog is certainly the poorer for the end of Bradley’s professional baseball career in 2011.  He always gave me plenty to write about each time a team that should have known better acquired him.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB 2013

Last summer I discovered that espn.com provides stats for what it calls “park factor”, which for purposes of this post means the ratio between the number of runs scored at a ballpark in any given season divided by the number of runs scored by said ballpark’s occupant (and its opponents) in away games that same season.  I wrote a post last June which evaluates each park’s park factor for the five years ending with the 2011 season.

As we approach the 2013 season (and the 2012 stats have long been in), it seems like a good time to update my earlier post incorporating the 2012 season.  Without further ado, here are the average park factors for all major league ballparks over the last six season (or less for the five ball parks that have opened more recently).

1.  Coors Field (Rockies) 1.301

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers) 1.148

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.134

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.131

5.  U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.111

6.  Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.086

7.  Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.080

8.  New Yankee Stadium (2009-2012) 1.066 [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008, 1.002]

9.  Great American Ball Park (Reds) 1.057.

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.044.

11.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.018

12.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

12.  Miller Park (Brewers) 1.010

14.  Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) 1.008

15.  Marlins Park (2012) 1.005  [Sun Life Stadium, 2007-2011, 1.038]

16.  Nationals Park (2008-2012) 0.998 [RFK Stadium, 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.986

18.  Target Field (Twins, 2010-2012) 0.983 [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

19.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.978

20.  Progressive Field (Indians) 0.960

21.  Angels Stadium 0.939

22.  PNC Park (Pirates) 0.936

22.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals) 0.936

24.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 0.919

25.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.917

26.  Dodger Stadium 0.915

27.  Citi Field (Mets, 2009-2012) 0.904 [Shea Stadium, 2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.889

29.  Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.864

30.  Petco Park (Padres) 0.808

The rankings didn’t change much from last year.  Among last year’s ten best hitters’ parks, U.S. Cellular Park, where the White Sox play, was apparently a great place to hit in 2012, moving it up two slots.  New Yankee Stadium was apparently not a great place to hit, moving it down two slots. Coors Field improved on its status as far and away the best hitters’ park in MLB.

The Marlins’ new park, which looked like a great place to hit in late June of last year, turned out to be only a little better than average for the full season — we’ll have to see how it plays over the next few seasons.

The Royals’ Kauffman Stadium moved up two slots, and the Phillies’ Citizens’ Bank Park fell two slots.  The Astros’ Minute Maid Park also fell two slots.  The Twins’ Target Field was a hitters’ park for the first time in its three year history, jumping it up four slots.  The Pirates and Giants and their respective opponents scored a lot more runs on the road in 2012, causing both PNC Park and AT&T Park to drop three slots.

With another year in the books, the Mets’ Citi Field is developing into as much of a pitchers’ park as the old Shea Stadium.  San Diego’s Petco Park remains the worst place to ply one’s trade as a major league hitter, but Seattle’s Safeco Field narrowed the gap considerably.

Kansas City Royals Finally Decide It’s Time to Win Now

The Royals have decided that they are going to make a run at the play-offs in 2013 and 2014, after years and years of unsuccessful rebuilding.  The Royals haven’t had a winning season since 2003, haven’t won 90 games in a season since 1989 and haven’t played in the post-season since 1985 (when thankfully for Royals’ fans, they won the World Series).  At least, that’s the only way to understand the big James Shields/Wade Davis trade.

The Royals certainly gave up a boat-load of talent to get Shields and Davis.  Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi are definitely grade-A prospects — both look like they are ready to start 2013 in the major leagues.  Mike Montgomery, who turns 24 next July 1st, didn’t have even AAA command in 2012 but appears to have major league stuff.  Patrick Leonard at age 19 hit 14 HRs in 62 games in the rookie Appalachian League, propelling him to an .833 OPS even though he hit only .251.

In short, the Rays unloaded salary (although the deals they had for Shields and Davis going forward are extremely reasonable by MLB standard) and got a lot of cheap, controllable talent for the years to come.  The Rays are a small market team playing in a crappy in-door stadium; this is the kind of painful trade they must occasionally make to stay competitive given their budget constraints.  Needless to say, they won’t get the flack the Marlins got for the latter’s big salary dump this off-season, since they just extended their franchise player Evan Longoria through 2023.

The Royals gave up a lot, but they addressed their biggest need going into 2013 — pitching.  Shields is a legitimate No. 1 starter, and the addition of Wade Davis should give the Royals one of the best bullpens (if not the best) in the American League.

Despite the addition of James Shields and Ervin Santana, the Royals’ 2013 rotation looks weak.  It’s hard to get excited about Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar.

At least the Royals now have some options.  If/when some of the bottom three starters prove they haven’t got any more of what little they once had, the Royals can fall back on Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, Felipe Paulino, and, when he’s fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, Danny Duffy, at least pending trades now that the Royals have brought in Shields and Santana.

In fact, roster spots for Royals pitchers on Opening Day suddenly look extremely hard to come by.  With the addition of Wade Davis, the Royals should have a terrific bullpen in 2013.  Among Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow and Louis Coleman, none had an ERA above 3.71, a Ks/9IP ratio lower than 8.2, a Ks/BBs ratio of less than 2.7, or will be older than 27 in 2013. Wow!

The only knock on the Royals’ bullpen plus Wade Davis is that only one of the six pitchers is a lefty (Tim Collins is listed as 5’7″ and 165 lbs and has the nickname “Tiny” — only lefties can get away with being this small in MLB).  That’s good news for lefty Francisley Bueno, a Cuban defector who as a 31 year old rookie had a 1.56 ERA (but only struck out seven in 17.1 innings pitched across 18 appearances) in 2012.

The Royals need to hope that their bullpen remains healthy in 2013, because they are likely to be worked hard.

The Royals still have a lot of questions at 2B, CF and RF.  Christian Colon should be ready soon to plug the 2B hole, but in an ideal world, he’d start 2013 in AAA.  Johnny Giavotella also looks like he’s ready to help the Royals there.

In center, Jarrod Dyson is probably a better player than his stats and age indicate at first glance.  While his batting skills are suspect, he gets on base, he runs extremely well and he covers the ground on defense.  He’s likely good enough for at least 2013.

In right field, the Royals need to do better than Jeff Francoeur gave them in 2012.  While Francoeur still has the best right field arm in baseball (19 assists in 2012 and 116 assists in his career), he didn’t do anything else well in 2012.  The Royals are on the hook to him for $7.5 million in 2013, so it comes down to the fact that Francoeur needs to hit better in 2013.  At least, he’s only 29 next year, so it could happen.

I’m also not as sold on catcher Salvador Perez as the Royals apparently are, at least for 2013 and 2014.  Perez’s talent is obvious, but his inability/unwillingness to draw walks is a major concern.  In his career, Perez has walked only 73 times in 1397 minor league plate appearances and 19 times in 463 major league plate appearances.  At some point, likely sooner rather than later, major league pitchers will stop throwing Perez strikes.  It remains to be seen whether he can take enough of those balls to force pitchers to throw him strikes again.

At the very least, the Royals have finally dumped Yuniesky Betancourt, which should improve the team at least a little bit in 2013.

As a final note, opinions have been all over the map regarding this trade.  An article (apparently) by Jay Jaffe on SI.com particularly caught my attention, due to the way the author manipulates the statistics to support his pre-conceived opinion. Among other things, the article argues that James Shields really isn’t a No. 1 starter because his ERA was only 3.80 over the last six seasons.

Um, Shields had ERAs of 2.82 and 3.52 the last two seasons while striking out 448 and walking only 123 in 477 innings pitched.  2011 and 2012 are a lot more relevant to project Shields’ likely performance 2013 and 2104, the years he’s under contract, than 2007-2010.  The only thing that’s likely to keep Shields from being a great pitcher in 2013 and 2014 is a sore arm from too many innings pitched the last two years.

The author also suggests that Shields isn’t a true No. 1 starter because he isn’t one of the best five starters in the American League.  Technically, any pitcher who qualifies as one of the 14 best starters in the AL would be a No. 1 starter, given the number of teams in the league.

Fangraphs says that Shields’ performance over the last two seasons was worth $41.2 million, but Shields will be paid, if he pitches well, $21 million over the next two seasons.  ‘Nuff said.

The Sports Illustrated writer also foolishly looks at Wade Davis’ career 3.94 ERA, which is stated to be above league average.  However, this fails to take into account how well Davis pitched in relief in 2012, or, even assuming he returns to the starting rotation in 2013, how good his career ERA would be for a starter.

The author then indirectly criticizes Wil Myers for not being Jurickson Profar or Dylan Bundy, perhaps the two best prospects in baseball.  You don’t have to be Alex Rodriguez to be a great major league player.  It’s a little like saying that Mike Trout has no right to be good because he was only the 25th selection of the 2009 Draft.

At the end of the day, the Royals have made a trade that will, absent injuries, make them a better team in 2013.  For a team that hasn’t been competitive for a long, long time, it’s a refreshing change.

The B.J. Upton and Russell Martin Free Agent Signings

Reports are that B.J. Upton just signed a five year deal with the Atlanta Braves for $75.25 million and Russell Martin just signed a two year deal with the Pirates for $17 million.  Frankly, I expected both players to get more, based on the amounts relief pitchers have signed for earlier this off-season.

Some articles argue that the Braves are taking a risk with Upton based on his diminished on-base percentage in 2012, but I just don’t see it.  How many true center fielders with Upton’s power become free agents the off-season before they turn 28?  Not many.

Upton will be age 28 through 32 under the new contract, and for a player who runs as well as Upton, they are all reasonably likely to be prime seasons and may include the best seasons of his career.  Upton also moves out of Tropicana Field, one of the worst hitters’ parks in baseball.

Fangraphs values Upton’s performance over the last five seasons at $86 million.  For the Braves to sign Upton for five years and only through age 32 for a little over $75 million sounds like a bargain to me, given the premium free agents usually receive.

My feelings about Russell Martin are pretty much the same.  Two years, when Martin will be age 30 and 31, for $17 million sounds like a bargain to me.

O.K., Martin didn’t hit for average in New York, but he drew walks and hit for power, giving him OPS numbers over .700 both seasons, which is good for a catcher, particularly one who provides Martin’s defense.  Fangraphs values Martin’s two years as a Yankee at $23.6 million, which is a lot more than what the Pirates will pay him for the next two seasons.

If nothing else, Martin will certainly improve the Pirates’ defense at catcher significantly, given that Pirates’ catchers threw out only 11% of base-stealers, the worst by far of any National League team in 2012.  In fact, the Pirates allowed both the most stolen bases and recorded the fewest caught stealing of any team in MLB last year.

The biggest knock on Martin is that he has played a lot of games at catcher in his career and his body may begin breaking down sooner rather than later.  Perhaps there is something the Yankees know that the Pirates don’t, and that’s why the Yankees didn’t match the Bucs’ offer.

I kind of doubt it.  The Yankees were more than happy to commit a total of at least $22 million in 2013 to two over age 40 pitchers Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera, who pitched a total of only 83.2 innings between them last year.

Yes, Pettitte and Rivera have had great careers as Yankees, and that’s worth something.  However, the Yankees are a team that is built to win the World Series every year, and they and their fans are disappointed if they don’t.

While it’s true that if any two pitchers in baseball could have great years at, respectively, age 43 and 41, those pitchers are Rivera and Pettitte.  However, the odds that both of them will justify their salaries in 2013 is extremely unlikely. The Rivera and Pettitte signings are the kind that make a team’s fans happy during the off-season, but not so much once the new season actually begins.

If the Yankees were willing to throw this much money at two over age 40 pitchers in 2013, it’s a little hard to understand whey they felt that two years of Russell Martin at $17 million was too expensive.

The Strangeglove Award

Dick “Dr. Strangeglove” Stuart was a slugging 1Bman in the 1950′s and 1960′s who had “the bad hands.”  Historically bad hands, in fact.

Between 1958 and 1964, Stuart led his league’s 1Bmen in errors committed seven consecutive seasons (NL five times, then AL twice).  His 29 errors for the 1963 Boston Red Sox is the most by a 1Bman in any season since 1919.

In honor of Dick Stuart, I thought it would be fun to award a “Strangeglove Award” to each active player who made the most errors in a season at his position at any time in his career.  Here is my list by position:

C Jason Kendall, 18 for the 1996 Pirates (I consider Kendall still active, as he is currently attempting a comeback with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the Royals’ AA club; Brian McCann (2010), Russell Martin (2007) and Dioner Navarro (2007) all made 14 errors in a season.)

1B Ryan Howard, 19 for the 2008 Phillies.  Another slugging 1Bman who struggles on defense.

2B Alfonso Soriano, 23 for both the 2002 Yankees and 2004 Rangers.  Given the fact that Soriano is now a terrible left fielder, it’s now a little hard to believe he once played second at the major league level.  Of course, he did.  Among players, still playing 2B, Rickie Weeks‘ 22 errors for the 2006 Brewers leads the way.

3B Mark Reynolds, 34 for the 2008 Diamondbacks.  Reynolds’ career as a major league starter is in jeopardy, as he doesn’t field well enough to start at third (career .928 fielding percentage) and doesn’t hit well enough to start at first (career .806 OPS).

SS Ian Desmond, 34 for the 2010 Nationals.  Desmond made only 23 errors in 2011 and is a pace to make about 21 errors in 2012, so his 2010 total looks to be a rookie year one-off.

LF Adam Dunn, 12 for the 2006 Reds.  Adam Dunn is widely considered the worst defensive outfielder in baseball, given his poor range and high error rates (Dunn leads all active left fielders with 60 career errors).  Now that he has adjusted to the American League after his lost 2011 season, he has at last found his true position: designated hitter.

Alfonso Soriano merits note here.  He made 11 errors as the Nationals’ left fielder in 2006 and again as the Cubs’ left fielder in 2009.  Soriano is currently third among both active 2Bmen and active left fielders for most career errors made at each of these positions.  Alfonso gets the “Stone Hands” device on his Strangeglove Award for his unmeritorious service at two different positions.

CF Carlos Beltran, 12 for the 1999 Royals.  Another high rookie year total; young players don’t just improve at the plate.  Even so, Beltran leads all active center fielders by a wide margin with 60 careers errors.

RF Vladimir Guerrero, 19 for the 1999 Montreal Expos.  (I’m also considering Bad Vlad still active, because he is not officially retired, and he did play eight games this year for the Blue Jays’ AAA team, the Las Vegas 51s, before being released at his request on June 12th when the Jays had not promoted him to the major league team.  He’s waiting around for some team to give him a call.  Justin Upton made 13 errors for the 2011 Diamondbacks.)

Bad Vlad had a great right field arm but made almost as many errors as assists in his career (125 errors and 126 assists).  His 125 career errors is almost twice that of Bobby Abreu (69), second most among active right fielders.

P Rick Ankiel (2000), Ramon Ortiz (2005), A.J. Burnett (2008) and Matt Garza (2011) each made seven errors in a season.  The last pitcher to make 10 errors in a season was Joe Kennedy for the 2002 Devil Rays. Kennedy died of heart failure during the 2007 off-season at age 28.