Contemporary Minor League Aces

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a two-part series on contemporary minor league stars, who I defined as players with at least 4,000 career plate appearances in the high minors (the AAA and AA levels).  The two parts are here and here.

I thought it would also be fun to identify any recent pitchers who have had long and successful minor league careers.  Deciding on 1,200 career innings pitched in the high minors as a cut-off (which limits the list to starters and seems to be about the equivalent of my 4,000 plate appearances cut-off for position players), I was able to find only six contemporary pitchers who have accomplished this feat.  However, I was able to find an additional half a dozen or so pitchers who have come awfully close.

One final note before getting on with the list — for purchases of AA and AAA performance, pitching in the Mexican League counts, but pitching in other foreign leagues (Japan’s NPB, South Korea’s KBO, Taiwan, Italy, etc.) does not.  While this is somewhat arbitrary, it makes it easier to use baseball reference to find the qualifying pitchers, and what I am interested in doing is identifying American minor league stars, rather than Americans who have starred in Asia.  Without further ado:

1.  Nelson Figueroa (1,470 AAA innings pitched, 266.2 AA, 499 MLB).  Leading the list of contemporary minor league aces, Figueroa is a smallish right-hander (listed as 6’1″ and 185 lbs), who has a career minor league of 141-95, by far the most wins and best winning percentage of any recent minor leaguer I could find.  He has a career 3.70 minor league ERA with nearly three strikeouts for every walk allowed.

Nelson was originally drafted by the Mets in the 30th round of the 1995 Draft, and he was only just released in late April of this year by the Diamondbacks after getting off to a brutally bad start for the AAA Reno Aces a month shy of his 39th birthday.

Figueroa pitched in parts of nine major league seasons for six different teams mostly as a spot starter/long reliever.  While his career major league record of 20-35 is pretty bad, his career 4.55 ERA is hardly terrible.

2.  Andrew Lorraine (1,613 AAA, 7.1 AA, 175 MLB).  Once a 4th round draft pick out of Stanford, Lorraine has thrown more innings at the AAA level than any other recent pitcher.  His minor league career record was 110-89 with a 4.15 ERA.

A left-hander, Andrew pitched in parts of seven major league seasons for seven different teams and invariably got hit hard (career MLB ERA of 6.53).  He just didn’t have the stuff to have a successful major league career, but he clearly knew enough about pitching to excel at the AAA level.  His career ended in 2009 at age 36 playing in the now-defunct independent-A Golden Baseball League.

3.  Jared Fernandez (1,293.1 AAA, 504.1 AA, 108.2 MLB).  A big right-hander, Fernandez pitched more innings in the high minors than anyone else on my list.  He finished his minor league career in 2007 at age 35 with a 105-100 record and a 4.34 ERA.

Jared didn’t break through to the majors until age 29, and even though he pitched effectively for the Reds in 2002 and the Astros in 2003, he was already past age 30 both of those seasons.  Fernandez’s career ended with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s NPB.

4.  Chris George (1,244.1 AAA, 97.1 AA, 237.1 MLB).  The 31st overall pick in the 1998 Draft out of high school, George got numerous opportunities while in his early 20′s between 2001 and 2004 to establish himself as a starter for the Royals.  However, he didn’t have major league command, and he was also hit hard, posting a career major league 6.48 ERA with awful numbers at every pitching category.

Chris then settled in as a journeyman AAA starter.  He finished his minor league career in 2012 with an 85-87 record and a 4.70 ERA.

5.  Shane Loux (1,143.1 and counting AAA, 157.2 AA, 144 MLB).  Still pitching effectively, but unspectacularly, for the AAA Fresno Grizzlies this season at age 33, Loux is now 106-109 with a 4.46 ERA for his minor league career. He was once a second round draft pick.

Shane pitched in the majors in 2002-2003 for the Tigers, 2008-2009 for the Angels and last season for the Giants.  Last year’s performance, in which he posted a 4.97 ERA in 19 relief appearances, was probably his best at the major league level.

6.  Andy Van Hekken (740.1 AAA, 460.2 AA, 30 MLB).  A former 3rd round draft pick, Van Hekken’s only major league experience came in 2002 at the age of 22 when he went 1-3 in five starts for the Tigers.  His 3.00 ERA looked pretty good, but his other numbers suggested he wasn’t major league ready.

Andy returned to AAA and never made it back to the Show.  His career minor league record of 122-86 and 3.94 ERA look pretty good, but he never had any big years at AAA and had to use the independent-A Atlantic League several times to keep himself in professional baseball.

Andy went to South Korea to pitch in 2012, where he has established himself as one of the KBO’s top starters.  He currently has one of the five best ERAs in the young 2013 KBO season.

7.  R. A. Dickey (1,079 AAA, 108.2 AA, 1,113.1 MLB).  Undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list, Dickey’s career story is well known.  He makes this list with more than 1,000 AAA innings pitched because he has had essentially two professional pitching careers, the first as a regular pitcher and the second as a knuckleballer.

8.  Chris Michalak (1,048.2 AAA, 78 AA, 191.1 MLB).  A lefty, Michalak finished his professional career with the AAA Las Vegas 51′s in 2009 at age 38.  He finished with a minor league career record of 93-90 and a 4.14 ERA.

Michalak pitched fairly well for the Blue Jays and Rangers in 2001 and 2002, but he was already over 30 years old in 2001.

9.  Randy Keisler (1,027.1 AAA, 116 AA, 150.2 MLB).  Another lefty, Keisler has gone 99-77 with a 3.95 ERA in his minor league career.  He pitched last year in the Atlantic League at age 36.  Keisler pitched parts of six major league seasons for five different teams and almost always got hit hard, posting a career MLB ERA of 6.63 with lots of hits, home runs and walks allowed.

10.  Brandon Duckworth (1,014 AAA, 167 AA, 511 MLB).  Other than Nelson Figueroa and R. A. Dickey, the only pitcher on this list with a substantial major league career, Duckworth pitched eight seasons in the Show, going 23-34 with a 5.28 ERA mostly as a fifth and spot starter/long reliever.  As a minor leaguer, Brandon has a career 110-74 record with a 3.80 ERA.

Duckworth went to Japan late last season and pitched well enough in six starts to return to the Rakuten Golden Eagles this year at age 37.  After seven starts this year, he is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA, not good enough for a highly paid foreigner in pitching-dominated NPB.

11.  Brian Cooper (877 AAA, 319.2 AA, 167.2 MLB).  A small right-hander whose professional career ended in 2006 at age 31, Cooper appeared in a total of 13 games for the 2004 and 2005 Giants.  Given that the Giants are the team I follow, I’m a bit embarrassed to admit that I don’t really remember Cooper.

Cooper finished his minor league career with an 87-80 record and a 4.61 ERA.  He went 15-9 for the 2003 AAA Charlotte Knights, which is a lot for AAA — none of the players higher on this list managed to win 15 games in a single year at AAA.

12.  Adam Pettyjohn (788.1 AAA, 367.1 AA, 69 MLB).  Once a second round draft pick, Pettyjohn had a career minor league record of 85-74 with a 4.23 ERA.  He went 15-6 for the 2008 AAA Louisville Bats.

Pettyjohn pitched briefly for the 2001 Detroit Tigers and the 2008 Cincinnati Reds.  His last season was 2010 for the AAA Buffalo Bisons.

13.  Derek Lee (450.2 AAA, 732.2 AA, 0 MLB).  Last and certainly least on this list, Derek Lee is the only player on this list to pitch more innings at AA than AAA.  He never pitched in the majors, which likely also prevented him from making some real money playing in Asia.  He finished his minor league career in the Mexican League in 2008 at age 33 with a final record of 81-84 and 3.61 ERA.

Lee played twelve years of professional baseball and probably never made more than $50,000 a year, if that.  He’s also unlikely to get a pension in any amount, unlike almost all the other players on this list, who had major league careers just long enough to get some kind of a pension.  Somehow, it doesn’t seem fair.

If I’ve missed any pitchers who should be included in my list, please let me know.

Colorado Rockies Sign Roy Oswalt

The Rockies announced today that they signed veteran RHP Roy Oswalt to a minor league contract.  No reports yet on the contract terms, but since it’s a minor league deal, it certainly sounds like a row-risk-potentially-high-reward move by the Rockies.

Apparently, Oswalt has effectively decided that at this point in his career, he doesn’t want to spend six or seven months a year traveling.  He signed with the Rangers late last year, and he’s doing the same thing with the Rockies this year.  In my mind, Oswalt has earned the right to take his Aprils off, if that’s what he wants to do.

Oswalt got hit hard pitching for the Rangers last year, and he’ll likely get hit hard pitching in Coors Field this year, since Coors Field is the only park tougher for pitchers than the Rangers’ home yard.  Even so, Oswalt looks like a good fit for an extreme hitters’ park because he throws strikes and doesn’t give up a whole lot of home runs.

At the Ballpark in Arlington and Coors Field, batters are going to get their hits and home runs.  Limiting the number of free passes the pitcher allows is critical to keeping big innings to a minimum.

Oswalt went 4-3 for the Rangers last year in spite of a 5.80 ERA.  Oswalt doesn’t need to improve much to be an effective starter in Denver since Coors Field is a place where a starter can have an ERA over 5.00 and still have a winning record.

For example, Kevin Ritz went 17-11 with an ERA of 5.28 in 1996, Pedro Astacio went 17-11 with an ERA of 5.04 in 1999, Shawn Estes went 15-8 with 5.84 ERA in 2004, Jeff Francis went 14-12 with an ERA of 5.68 in 2005, and Mike Hampton went 14-13 with a 5.41 ERA in 2001.  I very much doubt that these are the only Rockies’ starters to have achieved this dubious distinction — these are just the ones I found without much effort.

One thing that Oswalt will not do as a Rockie is win 20 games in a season.  No Rockies pitcher has yet done so, with Ubaldo Jiminez‘s 19 wins (and 2.88 ERA) in 2010 the closest to date.  Is it any wonder that it is almost impossible for the Rockies to sign top free agent pitchers?

April Is Good (and Big Catchers)

April is a good time.  After the month-long tease of Spring Training, we finally have major league baseball games again that count toward the championship season.

Only three or four games into the 2013 season, we’ve seen Bryce Harper become the youngest player to hit two home runs on Opening Day and the fourth youngest player to hit a home run on Opening Day, Clayton Kershaw become only the second pitcher since at least 1916 to pitch a shut out and hit a home run on opening day (Hall of Famer Bob Lemon did it in 1953), and Yu Darvish come within one out of a perfect game.  That’s what we’ve been waiting for since the 2012 World Series ended five months ago!

One start into his major league career, Hyun-Jin Ryu, the 2012 off-season’s most exciting foreign signing, looks like the real deal.  While he took a hard-luck loss against the Giants, he allowed only one earned run in 6.1 innings pitched and struck out five while walking none.  However, he also allowed 10 hits and two unearned, suggesting he’s still got some things to learn about pitching to major league hitters compared to those in the Korean Baseball Organization.

I read somewhere during Spring Training that Ryu was probably only a fourth or fifth starter in MLB.  However, his spring training numbers didn’t show it.  In six starts and seven appearances this spring, he had a 3.29 ERA with a pitching line of 27.1 IP, 17 hits, one HR, eight BBs and 27 Ks.  You couldn’t ask for much more than that from a pitcher pitching against major league (and high minors) hitters for the first time.

I’m sure Ryu still has some things to learn, he could blow out his pitching arm before the 2013 season’s over, and I still think he needs to lose a few pounds, but so far he hasn’t done anything to suggest he isn’t worth the big contract the Dodgers gave him.

I read yesterday on mlbtraderumors.com that the Orioles tried, but were unable, to sign catcher Matt Wieters to a long-term contract extension this Spring.  This may be the best contract the Orioles never signed.

Catchers Matt Wieters’ size (he’s listed by baseball reference as 6’5″ and 240 lbs) very rarely have long major league careers.  Of the top 20 catchers all-time in terms of games played at the position, the largest to date was Lance Parrish, who baseball reference lists as 6’2″ and 210 lbs (fangraphs says he weighed 220 lbs).

Players at all positions are steadily getting bigger, and A. J. Pierzynski (who is listed as 6’3″ and 235 lbs, is currently 27th all-time in games played at catcher, and has averaged 124 games caught per season for the last three years) is only 75 more games played away from jumping up to 19th all-time in games caught.  However, the only other catcher of that size in the top 30 is Ernie Lombardi (6’3″ and 230 lbs) who is currently 28th all-time.

Matt Wieters has played 126, 132 and 134 games at catcher the last three seasons, and, so long as he doesn’t get hurt, is likely to play roughly that many each of the next three seasons before he becomes eligible for free agency.

I’ve written many times over the last few years about how the Twins should stop running Joe Mauer (6’5″, 230 lbs) out at catcher 120+ games a year at catcher, and Brian McCann (6’3″, 230 lbs), who had his best two offensive seasons at ages 22 and 24 and has seen his OPS drop each of the last four seasons, is pretty much the poster-boy for the problems with playing a man that size at catcher 120+ games a season year after year.

Wieters is represented by Scott Boras, which usually means that it will take the absolute maximum to get Wieters signed long term.  If the O’s plan to play Wieters 130+ games a year at catcher for the next three seasons, they’d almost certainly be better off letting some other team give him the ginormous contract he’ll get as a free agent.

Alex Rodriguez in Another Steroids Scandal

Those of you have been readers of my blog for some time know that I am not a big fan of Alex Rodriguez as a human being.  For example, about two and a half years ago, I wrote a particularly intemperate piece about him after his run-in with Oakland A’s pitcher Dallas Braden, a piece for which a number of Yankees fans criticized me at the time.

Once again, Rodriguez has been linked to use of performance enhancing drugs (“PEDs”), and the allegations and evidence in support thereof look pretty damning.  Here is a link to the Miami New Times article which details all the references to ARod and his cousin Yuri Sucart, who was directly involved in the former’s steroid use in the early 2000′s, in the notes of Tony Bosch, the head of Biogenesis, the Miami “anti-aging” clinic that allegedly supplied steroids, human growth hormone (“HGH”) and other banned PEDs to numerous professional athletes.

The alleged athlete clients include baseball players Manny Ramirez, Bartolo Colon, Melky Cabrera and Yasmani Grandal and tennis player Wayne Odesnik, all of whom have been suspended in recent years for PED use.  Washington Nationals’ ace Gio Gonzalez and Texas Rangers slugger Nelson Cruz have also been linked to Biogenesis.

In 2010 Rodriguez was also alleged to have made made visits in 2009 to Canadian sports doctor Anthony Galea who was then being investigated for providing HGH to professional athletes.  Galea subsequently pleaded guilty to bringing mislabeled drugs including HGH into the U.S. to treat professional athletes.  At the time, ARod of course denied that Galea had given him PEDs.

Both Rodriguez and Gio Gonzalez have issued statements denying any use of PEDs or any connection to Bosch or Biogenesis.  Gonzalez, as a player who has never tested positive for PEDs and against whom the evidence appears more unclear, deserves the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

ARod does not.  Rodriguez is a known liar when it comes to steroids use.  He lied about his prior use of steroids in 2007; and when the evidence forced him to admit his prior use, he lied about his prior lies (“At the time, I wasn’t even being honest with myself. How am I going to be truthful with Katie [Couric] or CBS?” — what nonsense!)

Let’s hope the authorities seriously investigate this matter and force Tony Bosch to spill the beans about exactly who his clients were and what he gave them.

When all is said and done, MLB’s testing program seems to be at least somewhat successful.  Of the seven baseball players named in connection with Biogenesis, four have tested positive for steroids and been suspended.  Earlier this month, MLB and the players’ association agreed to begin testing for HGH during the playing season and to monitor players’ testosterone levels for spikes, which may explain why some players who were using have not tested positive to date.

Some players are always going to cheat with PEDs and try to find ways to get around the new drug testing regime.  That’s the entire reason why the testing program exists in the first place.  So long as at least some of the players are getting caught and suffering serious consequences in the form of increasingly long unpaid suspensions, it should have a deterrent effect on other players considering whether or not to use PEDs in the first place.

As a final thought, even though I am no fan of Alex Rodriguez and I hope he’s punished if it is proven that he has continued to use PEDs in recent years, he still deserves election to the Hall of Fame eventually.  He has been simply too good a player to leave out of the Hall of Fame entirely.  That said, I would feel no sorrow if he were made to wait until his last year of eligibility to be elected.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB 2013

Last summer I discovered that espn.com provides stats for what it calls “park factor”, which for purposes of this post means the ratio between the number of runs scored at a ballpark in any given season divided by the number of runs scored by said ballpark’s occupant (and its opponents) in away games that same season.  I wrote a post last June which evaluates each park’s park factor for the five years ending with the 2011 season.

As we approach the 2013 season (and the 2012 stats have long been in), it seems like a good time to update my earlier post incorporating the 2012 season.  Without further ado, here are the average park factors for all major league ballparks over the last six season (or less for the five ball parks that have opened more recently).

1.  Coors Field (Rockies) 1.301

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers) 1.148

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.134

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.131

5.  U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.111

6.  Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.086

7.  Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.080

8.  New Yankee Stadium (2009-2012) 1.066 [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008, 1.002]

9.  Great American Ball Park (Reds) 1.057.

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.044.

11.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.018

12.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

12.  Miller Park (Brewers) 1.010

14.  Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) 1.008

15.  Marlins Park (2012) 1.005  [Sun Life Stadium, 2007-2011, 1.038]

16.  Nationals Park (2008-2012) 0.998 [RFK Stadium, 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.986

18.  Target Field (Twins, 2010-2012) 0.983 [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

19.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.978

20.  Progressive Field (Indians) 0.960

21.  Angels Stadium 0.939

22.  PNC Park (Pirates) 0.936

22.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals) 0.936

24.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 0.919

25.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.917

26.  Dodger Stadium 0.915

27.  Citi Field (Mets, 2009-2012) 0.904 [Shea Stadium, 2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.889

29.  Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.864

30.  Petco Park (Padres) 0.808

The rankings didn’t change much from last year.  Among last year’s ten best hitters’ parks, U.S. Cellular Park, where the White Sox play, was apparently a great place to hit in 2012, moving it up two slots.  New Yankee Stadium was apparently not a great place to hit, moving it down two slots. Coors Field improved on its status as far and away the best hitters’ park in MLB.

The Marlins’ new park, which looked like a great place to hit in late June of last year, turned out to be only a little better than average for the full season — we’ll have to see how it plays over the next few seasons.

The Royals’ Kauffman Stadium moved up two slots, and the Phillies’ Citizens’ Bank Park fell two slots.  The Astros’ Minute Maid Park also fell two slots.  The Twins’ Target Field was a hitters’ park for the first time in its three year history, jumping it up four slots.  The Pirates and Giants and their respective opponents scored a lot more runs on the road in 2012, causing both PNC Park and AT&T Park to drop three slots.

With another year in the books, the Mets’ Citi Field is developing into as much of a pitchers’ park as the old Shea Stadium.  San Diego’s Petco Park remains the worst place to ply one’s trade as a major league hitter, but Seattle’s Safeco Field narrowed the gap considerably.

San Francisco Giants Top Prospects 2013, Part I: 1-12

I thought it would be fun to list the Giants’ top 60 prospects, as I see them, heading into the 2013 baseball season.  I’m only including players who have actually played in a professional league to date, so no 17 year old Caribbean bonus babies who haven’t even played in the Dominican Summer League yet, although I may decide to note a few at the end of this series.  Here goes:

1.  Joe Panik (SS, age 22 in 2013).  Panik was the 29th player selected in the 2011 Draft, and he’s coming off a strong season for a young middle infielder at A+ San Jose, where he hit .297 with a .368 OBP and .770 OPS.  Panik’s defense was good enough that the Giants elected to keep him at SS and play Carter Jurica, their 3rd round pick in 2010, at 2B.

Panik hit poorly in the Arizona Fall League this fall, hitting only .205 with a .565 OPS in 20 games.  However, given his age and the fact that he had only played about a year and a half of professional baseball as of the end of this regular season, I don’t see his poor performance in the AFL as cause for concern.

2.  Kyle Crick (RHP, 20).  The 49th pick of the 2011 draft, Crick had the kind of year you want see from a young right-hander.  His 2.51 ERA at Class A Augusta was impressive for a 19 year old and so were his 128 Ks and only 75 hits allowed in 111.1 innings pitched.  His command isn’t there yet, so he will likely need at least two more full seasons in the minors, which gives him time to blow out his arm before ever reaching the Show.  Even so, he’s definitely very promising.

3.  Clayton Blackburn (RHP, 20).  A 16th round pick in 2011 out of high school, Blackburn actually pitched better at Augusta in 2012 than Crick did.  Blackburn recorded a 2.54 ERA with a pitching line of 131.1 IP, 116 hits, 18 walks (!), and 143 Ks.

I rated Crick higher as a prospect than Blackburn because of Crick’s Draft pedigree and his better swing and miss stuff at this level of professional ball.  However, Blackburn’s better command could get him to the major leagues faster.

For what it’s worth, Crick is listed as 6’4″ and 220 lbs, while Blackburn is listed as 6’3″ and 220 lbs, and both are from Texas.  They certainly have the body types you look for in your right-handed pitching prospects.  For comparison purposes, Matt Cain, who has an archetypal RHP’s body, is listed as 6’3″ and 230 lbs, but, of course, he’s nearly a decade older.

4.  Nick Noonan (SS, 24).  As the AAA Fresno Grizzlies’ starting shortstop in 2012, Noonan hit .296 with a .347 OBP and a .763 OPS.  Noonan was the 32nd pick of the 2007 Draft, and, as a player coming out of high school, it’s taken him awhile to develop.  After tough years at the plate in 2010 and 2011, he looks back on track as a top prospect.

In fact, he’s very close to being a major league player at this point, and with just a little improvement with the bat in 2013 I expect that he’ll be called up no later than the 2013 All-Star Break.

5.  Gary Brown (CF, 24).  Brown was the 24th player selected in 2010, and he had a terrific year at A+ San Jose in 2011.  However, his stock has dropped somewhat in my mind, after a less impressive year at AA Richmond.  Brown hit .279 with a .347 OBP and .731 OPS.  Also, Brown stole 33 bases in 51 attempts, a 64.7% success rate, which is not effective base running.

Richmond is a tough, tough place to hit, and Brown’s offense might explode again at AAA Fresno, a great place to hit, in 2013.  However, I’m going to wait until Brown actually does so.  Brown did hit .313 with a .357 OBP and a .732 OPS in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League this Fall.

Joe Panik is two full years younger than Brown at one level below, and Nick Noonan is six months younger than Brown at one level above (in 2012), so I rate Panik and Noonan higher than Brown at this moment.

6.  Chris Stratton (RHP, 22).  Although Stratton was the 20th player selected in the 2012 Draft and the Giants have a stellar success record for pitchers they’ve drafted in the first round, I can’t rank him any higher than sixth, because his professional career to date consists of only 16.1 inning pitched at short-season Salem-Keizer.  In those 16.1 innings, Stratton gave up six runs, five of them earned, on 14 hits and ten walks while striking out 16.  Promising, but not exceptionally so.

7.  Andrew Susac (C, 23).  The Giants’ 2nd round draft pick in 2011, Susac had a fine first season in professional baseball at A+ San Jose in 2012.  While he batted only .244, his .351 OBP and .731 OPS were solid numbers for a young catcher.  Susac also made 14 errors, however, suggesting he still needs to work on his defense behind the plate.

8.  Michael Kickham (LHP, 24).  A 6th round pick in the 2010 Draft, Kickham went 11-10 with a 3.05 ERA for the AA Richmond Flying Squirrels in 2012.  His pitching line was 150.2 IP, 119 hits and 75 walks allowed and 137 strikeouts.  In short, Kickham looks to have major league stuff, but does not yet have major league command.

9.  Edwin Escobar (LHP, 21).  A smallish (6’1″, 185″) lefty from Venezuela, Escobar was another fine young starter for the Class A Augusta Greenjackets.  His 2012 ERA was 2.96 with a pitching line of 130.2 IP, 121 hits and 32 walks allowed and 122 Ks.  Escobar’s strike out numbers have always been pretty good, but 2012 was the year he found his command.

The Giants acquired Escobar from the Texas Rangers in the April 2010 trade of LHP Ben Snyder, who is six years older and still hasn’t reached the majors.

10.  Shawn Payne (LF, 23).  Payne was far and away the best hitter at Class A Augusta in 2012.  He led the team by large margins in batting average (.309), on-base percentage (.413) and OPS (.842).  He also stole an astounding 53 bases in 56 attempts.

Unfortunately, Payne’s blazing speed apparently does not translate into his being a great defensive outfielder, as he spent the year playing left field and DHed on 21 occasions.  Further, Payne was a 35th round draft pick out of college in 2011, which means the Giants aren’t going to give him anything he doesn’t earn and then some.  Despite the year he was having, he wasn’t promoted to A+ San Jose until the last couple of games of San Jose’s season.

11.  Jacob Dunnington (LHP, 22).  It’s hard to know what to make of Dunnington, who the Giants signed in 2010 as an undrafted free agent, except that he appears to have great stuff.  He’s rail thin at 6’2″ and 160 lbs, and he only made 24 relief appearances during the 2012 regular season, 11 at Class A Augusta and 13 at Class AA Richmond.

Strangely, Dunnington pitched much better in AA ball than he did in Class A (1.76 ERA compared to 4.50 ERA).  For the season, his pitching line was 25.1 IP, 20 hits and 13 walks allowed and 32 Ks.  For his professional career, he has 161 Ks in 119 innings pitched (12.2/9 IP), which is extremely impressive.

Dunnington also pitched in the Arizona Fall League this fall, which means the Giants consider him a prospect.  His 6.75 ERA there was poor, but his pitching line (9.1 IP, 13 hits and 4 walks allowed and 14 Ks) suggest he’s still trying to harness great stuff.  I rank Dunnington this high mainly because of his age and his fantastic strikeout rates.

12.  Ehire Adrianza (SS, 23).  Adrianza has been a highly regarded prospect for some time — for example, MLB.com rated him as the Giants’ 8th best prospect a year ago.  After making slow but steady progress in 2009 through 2011, Adrianza ran into something of a wall at AA Richmond in 2012.

Ehire hit only .220 with an awful .599 OPS in this first stab at AA ball.  However, his .310 on-base percentage was not terrible for a middle infielder, and he stole 16 bases in 20 attempts.  Adrianza’s defense at shortstop has always been highly regarded, although he did make 17 errors there in 2012.  A native of Venezuela, Adrianza hit .276 with a .379 OBP and .769 OPS in 25 games in the Venezuelan Winter League this year.

Adrianza’s goal in 2013 is to hit well enough at AA Richmond to get himself promoted to AAA Fresno, a much, much better place to hit.  There’s a good chance Adrianza’s bat will come around, at least by the time he turns 24.

Part II of this series can be found here, Part III here, Part IV here, and Part V here.

Kansas City Royals Finally Decide It’s Time to Win Now

The Royals have decided that they are going to make a run at the play-offs in 2013 and 2014, after years and years of unsuccessful rebuilding.  The Royals haven’t had a winning season since 2003, haven’t won 90 games in a season since 1989 and haven’t played in the post-season since 1985 (when thankfully for Royals’ fans, they won the World Series).  At least, that’s the only way to understand the big James Shields/Wade Davis trade.

The Royals certainly gave up a boat-load of talent to get Shields and Davis.  Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi are definitely grade-A prospects — both look like they are ready to start 2013 in the major leagues.  Mike Montgomery, who turns 24 next July 1st, didn’t have even AAA command in 2012 but appears to have major league stuff.  Patrick Leonard at age 19 hit 14 HRs in 62 games in the rookie Appalachian League, propelling him to an .833 OPS even though he hit only .251.

In short, the Rays unloaded salary (although the deals they had for Shields and Davis going forward are extremely reasonable by MLB standard) and got a lot of cheap, controllable talent for the years to come.  The Rays are a small market team playing in a crappy in-door stadium; this is the kind of painful trade they must occasionally make to stay competitive given their budget constraints.  Needless to say, they won’t get the flack the Marlins got for the latter’s big salary dump this off-season, since they just extended their franchise player Evan Longoria through 2023.

The Royals gave up a lot, but they addressed their biggest need going into 2013 — pitching.  Shields is a legitimate No. 1 starter, and the addition of Wade Davis should give the Royals one of the best bullpens (if not the best) in the American League.

Despite the addition of James Shields and Ervin Santana, the Royals’ 2013 rotation looks weak.  It’s hard to get excited about Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar.

At least the Royals now have some options.  If/when some of the bottom three starters prove they haven’t got any more of what little they once had, the Royals can fall back on Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, Felipe Paulino, and, when he’s fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, Danny Duffy, at least pending trades now that the Royals have brought in Shields and Santana.

In fact, roster spots for Royals pitchers on Opening Day suddenly look extremely hard to come by.  With the addition of Wade Davis, the Royals should have a terrific bullpen in 2013.  Among Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow and Louis Coleman, none had an ERA above 3.71, a Ks/9IP ratio lower than 8.2, a Ks/BBs ratio of less than 2.7, or will be older than 27 in 2013. Wow!

The only knock on the Royals’ bullpen plus Wade Davis is that only one of the six pitchers is a lefty (Tim Collins is listed as 5’7″ and 165 lbs and has the nickname “Tiny” — only lefties can get away with being this small in MLB).  That’s good news for lefty Francisley Bueno, a Cuban defector who as a 31 year old rookie had a 1.56 ERA (but only struck out seven in 17.1 innings pitched across 18 appearances) in 2012.

The Royals need to hope that their bullpen remains healthy in 2013, because they are likely to be worked hard.

The Royals still have a lot of questions at 2B, CF and RF.  Christian Colon should be ready soon to plug the 2B hole, but in an ideal world, he’d start 2013 in AAA.  Johnny Giavotella also looks like he’s ready to help the Royals there.

In center, Jarrod Dyson is probably a better player than his stats and age indicate at first glance.  While his batting skills are suspect, he gets on base, he runs extremely well and he covers the ground on defense.  He’s likely good enough for at least 2013.

In right field, the Royals need to do better than Jeff Francoeur gave them in 2012.  While Francoeur still has the best right field arm in baseball (19 assists in 2012 and 116 assists in his career), he didn’t do anything else well in 2012.  The Royals are on the hook to him for $7.5 million in 2013, so it comes down to the fact that Francoeur needs to hit better in 2013.  At least, he’s only 29 next year, so it could happen.

I’m also not as sold on catcher Salvador Perez as the Royals apparently are, at least for 2013 and 2014.  Perez’s talent is obvious, but his inability/unwillingness to draw walks is a major concern.  In his career, Perez has walked only 73 times in 1397 minor league plate appearances and 19 times in 463 major league plate appearances.  At some point, likely sooner rather than later, major league pitchers will stop throwing Perez strikes.  It remains to be seen whether he can take enough of those balls to force pitchers to throw him strikes again.

At the very least, the Royals have finally dumped Yuniesky Betancourt, which should improve the team at least a little bit in 2013.

As a final note, opinions have been all over the map regarding this trade.  An article (apparently) by Jay Jaffe on SI.com particularly caught my attention, due to the way the author manipulates the statistics to support his pre-conceived opinion. Among other things, the article argues that James Shields really isn’t a No. 1 starter because his ERA was only 3.80 over the last six seasons.

Um, Shields had ERAs of 2.82 and 3.52 the last two seasons while striking out 448 and walking only 123 in 477 innings pitched.  2011 and 2012 are a lot more relevant to project Shields’ likely performance 2013 and 2104, the years he’s under contract, than 2007-2010.  The only thing that’s likely to keep Shields from being a great pitcher in 2013 and 2014 is a sore arm from too many innings pitched the last two years.

The author also suggests that Shields isn’t a true No. 1 starter because he isn’t one of the best five starters in the American League.  Technically, any pitcher who qualifies as one of the 14 best starters in the AL would be a No. 1 starter, given the number of teams in the league.

Fangraphs says that Shields’ performance over the last two seasons was worth $41.2 million, but Shields will be paid, if he pitches well, $21 million over the next two seasons.  ‘Nuff said.

The Sports Illustrated writer also foolishly looks at Wade Davis’ career 3.94 ERA, which is stated to be above league average.  However, this fails to take into account how well Davis pitched in relief in 2012, or, even assuming he returns to the starting rotation in 2013, how good his career ERA would be for a starter.

The author then indirectly criticizes Wil Myers for not being Jurickson Profar or Dylan Bundy, perhaps the two best prospects in baseball.  You don’t have to be Alex Rodriguez to be a great major league player.  It’s a little like saying that Mike Trout has no right to be good because he was only the 25th selection of the 2009 Draft.

At the end of the day, the Royals have made a trade that will, absent injuries, make them a better team in 2013.  For a team that hasn’t been competitive for a long, long time, it’s a refreshing change.

Dodgers Sign Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu

The Dodgers have now reportedly reached agreement with free agent RHP Zack Greinke for six years and $147 million also reached agreement with Korean star LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu for six years and $36 million.

Greinke’s contract amount is almost exactly in line with the recent contract extensions for Matt Cain (five years, $112.5 million) and Cole Hamels (six years, $144 million) and CC Sabathia’s free agent contract four years ago (seven years, $161 million).  Perhaps, Greinke as a free agent could have gotten more, but with the Yankees apparently not in on the bidding, he didn’t break new ground.  Needless to say, Greinke is set for life unless he is incredibly improvident with his finances in the future.

I have to give credit to Scott Boras on Ryu’s reported contract.  Given the amount of the Dodgers’ winning posting bid (a little over $25.7 million), a contract in the range of $26 million to $30 million was almost fore-ordained, based on previous signings of posted players, such as Diasuke Matsuzaka and Yu Darvish.  I personally thought $30 million for five seasons would be about right.

Instead, Boras not only got a sixth year guaranteed for a total contract price of $36 million, he also worked in a player option to void the contract after five seasons in case Ryu turns out to be as good (and stays healthy) as the Dodgers hope he will be.

These “Boras options” are just fantastic for the elite players who receive them.  Sabathia’s allowed him and Boras to turn the seven year $161 million contract into an eight year $191 contract, and Alex Rodriguez’s allowed him and Boras to turn a ten year $252 million contract into a 17 year (!?!) $460 million, when (surprise, surprise) superstars Sabathia and Rodriguez played well through age 31.  That’s an awful lot of compensation for two players who have exactly one World Series ring between them.

I’m a bit surprised the Dodgers didn’t drive a harder bargain once they had already successfully reached agreement with Greinke.  If Ryu had refused to sign for, say, five years and $30 million, the Dodgers would have gotten back every penny of their $25.7 million posting fee from the Hanwa Eagles.

Meanwhile, Ryu’s fall-back options were incredibly meager.  He could return to play for the Hanwa Eagles in 2013 and earned $500,000 or $600,000.  [The top paid player in Korea's KBO makes a little over $700,000, and he has a lot more experience in KBO, not mention playing for years in Japan's NPB.]  Ryu would have to risk hurting his arm playing for relative peanuts, and next off-season he’d be a year older.  In other words, there won’t be any future $25.7 million posting fees for Ryu.

Even if Hanwa were willing to sell Ryu to one of the wealthiest three Japanese NPB teams, the largest contract Ryu would likely receive is roughly two years and $9.5 million, the contract Dae Ho Lee received last off-season as a free agent, and that doesn’t even take into account whatever monies the NPB team would have to pay Hanwa to negotiate with Ryu in the first place.

In other words, Ryu and Boras had no leverage and still got, at a minimum $6 million more than they had a right to expect.  At the end of the day, I suspect Boras is simply smarter than many of the MLB executives with whom he negotiates.  That, and/or Boras is exceptionally good at seeing the future trends in MLB.

Ned Colletti could have put the facts set forth two and three paragraphs above to Boras and said five years and $30 million or six years and $36 million “take it or leave it.”  Ryu (but not Boras) would have been a fool to leave it.

However, what we know now, after the Greinke and Ryu signings, is that the Dodgers under their new ownership intend to be the next George Steinbrenner (Steinbrenners still own the Yankees, but they’re not George) of MLB.  The Dodgers’ new ownership realizes that playing in the second biggest market in MLB, they need to start winning to maximize their revenue and maximize the team’s value.

The Dodgers haven’t won or even been to the World Series since 1988.  That’s simply too long for a team with the potential revenue streams of the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Current Dodger ownership apparently realizes they need to get back to the post-season fast, they need to stay there, and no matter how much money they spend of free agents, foreign players and trades (the Red Sox massive salary dump/Dodgers’ massive salary assumption), it’s likely to be less than the increase in revenue if the Dodgers start winning again.

As a final note, there are going to be some bargains available on at least two of Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang.  The Dodgers have too many starters under contract now, and, as a result, they don’t have a lot of leverage.  The one I’d want, taking salaries into account, is Chris Capuano.

They Come And They Go

The Chicago Cubs signed Japanese relief ace Kyuji Fujikawa to a two-year deal for $9.5 million with various options for third and fourth seasons.  I think it’s a great move for the Cubs.

Fujikawa’s numbers as a top closer in Japan are eye-popping, including a career (692.1 IP) 1.77 ERA, 11.9 Ks per nine innings and a K-to-BBs ratio of 4.4.  He’s going to have a big advantage his first year or two in MLB since major league hitters haven’t seen him pitch before.

The only knock on Fujikawa is that he turns 33 next summer, but I don’t see it as that much of a big deal, given the way Fujikawa has pitched the last two seasons and the fact that the contract only guarantees two years.

Fujikawa actually won’t make as much money at an annual rate as he made for the Hanshin Tigers in 2012.  Last year Hanshin reportedly paid him 400 million yen, which at present exchange rates comes to roughly $4.85 million, which is a little more than the $4.75 per year guaranteed by the Cubs.

Obviously, the advantage to signing with the Cubs is a two-year deal, although I imagine that Fujikawa could have received a two year deal from the Hanshin Tigers for the same money, if he wanted to remain in Japan, given that he was a true free agent this off-season.  What Fujikawa is really hoping is that he’ll become a major league star and then get the kind of contract he couldn’t get in Japan, since he’s already near the maximum amount a Japanese team would pay him.

It’s a good sign that Fujikawa is willing to come to the U.S. for roughly the same money as he could presently make in Japan.  It shows his desire to test himself against the best leagues going and his confidence that he can be successful in the U.S.

Meanwhile the Chunichi Dragons signed former Oriole and Diamondback Brad Bergesen to a one-year deal for $900,000 (including signing bonus) and additional performance bonuses.

Bergeson has pitched in the majors in each of the last four seasons and has not pitched badly, going 19-25 with a career 4.61 ERA, mostly as a starter.

However, while he clearly knows how to pitch, Bergesen’s career numbers suggest his stuff is not major league caliber.  In 424 career MLB innings pitched, Bergesen has allowed 467 hits, 55 HRS and 122 walks, while striking out only 225 batters.  As a result, his career run average (5.16) is considerably higher than his career ERA.

Bergesen will still be only 27 years old in 2013, and the fact that the Diamondbacks were willing to give him his release to play in Japan (and possibly receive a relatively modest sale price from the Chunichi Dragons) suggests that the D-Backs don’t see Bergesen having much of a major league future.

While we will, of course, have to wait and see how Bergesen adjusts to NPB baseball, his major league numbers to date are considerably better than Seth Greisinger’s, a pitcher who has had a great deal of success in NPB four of the last six seasons (Greisinger was hurt in 2010 and 2011).  Given his relatively tender age, if Bergesen can establish a reputation as a successful NPB pitcher in 2013, he could have a long and lucrative career in Japan.

However, I don’t see Bergesen becoming the next Colby Lewis, and one day returning to MLB in glory, because Bergesen’s stuff simply isn’t as good.

Todd Frazier the Next Chris Sabo?

The only thing surprising about this year’s rookie of the year awards was that the race in the NL between Bryce Harper and Wade Miley was so close.  No knock on Miley and the great season he had, but he’s six full years older than Harper, and there’s no way he faced as much pressure as Harper did, both as baseball’s anointed one and also playing on a play-off team.

While there’s something to be said for simply voting for the player who qualifies as a rookie under the rules and who had the best season using reasonably objective criteria, everyone knows that Harper is the most promising rookie in the National League by an enormous margin.

Would you trade Harper at this moment for both Miley and third place finisher Todd Frazier?  I sure wouldn’t, and I’d bet you couldn’t find one general manager who would.  You might make the deal if you also received fourth place finisher Wilin Rosario, because he’s at least a couple of years younger than either Miley or Frazier.

On the subject of Todd Frazier, he looks for all the world like the next Chris Sabo.  For those who don’t remember Sabo, he was the 1988 NL Rookie of the Year as a 26-year old 3Bman for the Cincinnati Reds.  Sabo had a .728 OPS his rookie season, compared to Frazier’s .829 OPS this season, but Sabo provided a lot more defense at the hot corner.

26 year old rookies (excluding old Negro Leaguers or Japanese stars), no matter how good their first season, rarely go on to become major stars.  Sabo had a few more good years (1990, when the Reds won the World Series, 1991 and 1993), but his major league career ended at age 34 with fewer than 1,000 career hits.  I’ll be surprised if Todd Frazier does substantially better.

In a completely unrelated final note, the Giants have just signed lefty reliever Jeremy Affeldt to a three year deal for approximately $18 million, another indication that this is going to be a great, great off-season for free agents.  By way of comparison, Affeldt’s two previous free agent contracts were two-year deals that promised him, respectively, $4 million and $4.75 million per year.

Affeldt has put up a few more good years, but he’s now also a few years past the age of 31.  His new contract is generous, but not at all out of line with prior few contracts we’ve seen this off-season.  It makes you wonder how much Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke are going to get.