Contemporary Minor League Aces

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a two-part series on contemporary minor league stars, who I defined as players with at least 4,000 career plate appearances in the high minors (the AAA and AA levels).  The two parts are here and here.

I thought it would also be fun to identify any recent pitchers who have had long and successful minor league careers.  Deciding on 1,200 career innings pitched in the high minors as a cut-off (which limits the list to starters and seems to be about the equivalent of my 4,000 plate appearances cut-off for position players), I was able to find only six contemporary pitchers who have accomplished this feat.  However, I was able to find an additional half a dozen or so pitchers who have come awfully close.

One final note before getting on with the list — for purchases of AA and AAA performance, pitching in the Mexican League counts, but pitching in other foreign leagues (Japan’s NPB, South Korea’s KBO, Taiwan, Italy, etc.) does not.  While this is somewhat arbitrary, it makes it easier to use baseball reference to find the qualifying pitchers, and what I am interested in doing is identifying American minor league stars, rather than Americans who have starred in Asia.  Without further ado:

1.  Nelson Figueroa (1,470 AAA innings pitched, 266.2 AA, 499 MLB).  Leading the list of contemporary minor league aces, Figueroa is a smallish right-hander (listed as 6’1″ and 185 lbs), who has a career minor league of 141-95, by far the most wins and best winning percentage of any recent minor leaguer I could find.  He has a career 3.70 minor league ERA with nearly three strikeouts for every walk allowed.

Nelson was originally drafted by the Mets in the 30th round of the 1995 Draft, and he was only just released in late April of this year by the Diamondbacks after getting off to a brutally bad start for the AAA Reno Aces a month shy of his 39th birthday.

Figueroa pitched in parts of nine major league seasons for six different teams mostly as a spot starter/long reliever.  While his career major league record of 20-35 is pretty bad, his career 4.55 ERA is hardly terrible.

2.  Andrew Lorraine (1,613 AAA, 7.1 AA, 175 MLB).  Once a 4th round draft pick out of Stanford, Lorraine has thrown more innings at the AAA level than any other recent pitcher.  His minor league career record was 110-89 with a 4.15 ERA.

A left-hander, Andrew pitched in parts of seven major league seasons for seven different teams and invariably got hit hard (career MLB ERA of 6.53).  He just didn’t have the stuff to have a successful major league career, but he clearly knew enough about pitching to excel at the AAA level.  His career ended in 2009 at age 36 playing in the now-defunct independent-A Golden Baseball League.

3.  Jared Fernandez (1,293.1 AAA, 504.1 AA, 108.2 MLB).  A big right-hander, Fernandez pitched more innings in the high minors than anyone else on my list.  He finished his minor league career in 2007 at age 35 with a 105-100 record and a 4.34 ERA.

Jared didn’t break through to the majors until age 29, and even though he pitched effectively for the Reds in 2002 and the Astros in 2003, he was already past age 30 both of those seasons.  Fernandez’s career ended with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s NPB.

4.  Chris George (1,244.1 AAA, 97.1 AA, 237.1 MLB).  The 31st overall pick in the 1998 Draft out of high school, George got numerous opportunities while in his early 20′s between 2001 and 2004 to establish himself as a starter for the Royals.  However, he didn’t have major league command, and he was also hit hard, posting a career major league 6.48 ERA with awful numbers at every pitching category.

Chris then settled in as a journeyman AAA starter.  He finished his minor league career in 2012 with an 85-87 record and a 4.70 ERA.

5.  Shane Loux (1,143.1 and counting AAA, 157.2 AA, 144 MLB).  Still pitching effectively, but unspectacularly, for the AAA Fresno Grizzlies this season at age 33, Loux is now 106-109 with a 4.46 ERA for his minor league career. He was once a second round draft pick.

Shane pitched in the majors in 2002-2003 for the Tigers, 2008-2009 for the Angels and last season for the Giants.  Last year’s performance, in which he posted a 4.97 ERA in 19 relief appearances, was probably his best at the major league level.

6.  Andy Van Hekken (740.1 AAA, 460.2 AA, 30 MLB).  A former 3rd round draft pick, Van Hekken’s only major league experience came in 2002 at the age of 22 when he went 1-3 in five starts for the Tigers.  His 3.00 ERA looked pretty good, but his other numbers suggested he wasn’t major league ready.

Andy returned to AAA and never made it back to the Show.  His career minor league record of 122-86 and 3.94 ERA look pretty good, but he never had any big years at AAA and had to use the independent-A Atlantic League several times to keep himself in professional baseball.

Andy went to South Korea to pitch in 2012, where he has established himself as one of the KBO’s top starters.  He currently has one of the five best ERAs in the young 2013 KBO season.

7.  R. A. Dickey (1,079 AAA, 108.2 AA, 1,113.1 MLB).  Undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list, Dickey’s career story is well known.  He makes this list with more than 1,000 AAA innings pitched because he has had essentially two professional pitching careers, the first as a regular pitcher and the second as a knuckleballer.

8.  Chris Michalak (1,048.2 AAA, 78 AA, 191.1 MLB).  A lefty, Michalak finished his professional career with the AAA Las Vegas 51′s in 2009 at age 38.  He finished with a minor league career record of 93-90 and a 4.14 ERA.

Michalak pitched fairly well for the Blue Jays and Rangers in 2001 and 2002, but he was already over 30 years old in 2001.

9.  Randy Keisler (1,027.1 AAA, 116 AA, 150.2 MLB).  Another lefty, Keisler has gone 99-77 with a 3.95 ERA in his minor league career.  He pitched last year in the Atlantic League at age 36.  Keisler pitched parts of six major league seasons for five different teams and almost always got hit hard, posting a career MLB ERA of 6.63 with lots of hits, home runs and walks allowed.

10.  Brandon Duckworth (1,014 AAA, 167 AA, 511 MLB).  Other than Nelson Figueroa and R. A. Dickey, the only pitcher on this list with a substantial major league career, Duckworth pitched eight seasons in the Show, going 23-34 with a 5.28 ERA mostly as a fifth and spot starter/long reliever.  As a minor leaguer, Brandon has a career 110-74 record with a 3.80 ERA.

Duckworth went to Japan late last season and pitched well enough in six starts to return to the Rakuten Golden Eagles this year at age 37.  After seven starts this year, he is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA, not good enough for a highly paid foreigner in pitching-dominated NPB.

11.  Brian Cooper (877 AAA, 319.2 AA, 167.2 MLB).  A small right-hander whose professional career ended in 2006 at age 31, Cooper appeared in a total of 13 games for the 2004 and 2005 Giants.  Given that the Giants are the team I follow, I’m a bit embarrassed to admit that I don’t really remember Cooper.

Cooper finished his minor league career with an 87-80 record and a 4.61 ERA.  He went 15-9 for the 2003 AAA Charlotte Knights, which is a lot for AAA — none of the players higher on this list managed to win 15 games in a single year at AAA.

12.  Adam Pettyjohn (788.1 AAA, 367.1 AA, 69 MLB).  Once a second round draft pick, Pettyjohn had a career minor league record of 85-74 with a 4.23 ERA.  He went 15-6 for the 2008 AAA Louisville Bats.

Pettyjohn pitched briefly for the 2001 Detroit Tigers and the 2008 Cincinnati Reds.  His last season was 2010 for the AAA Buffalo Bisons.

13.  Derek Lee (450.2 AAA, 732.2 AA, 0 MLB).  Last and certainly least on this list, Derek Lee is the only player on this list to pitch more innings at AA than AAA.  He never pitched in the majors, which likely also prevented him from making some real money playing in Asia.  He finished his minor league career in the Mexican League in 2008 at age 33 with a final record of 81-84 and 3.61 ERA.

Lee played twelve years of professional baseball and probably never made more than $50,000 a year, if that.  He’s also unlikely to get a pension in any amount, unlike almost all the other players on this list, who had major league careers just long enough to get some kind of a pension.  Somehow, it doesn’t seem fair.

If I’ve missed any pitchers who should be included in my list, please let me know.

Life is a Gamble

The Toronto Blue Jays just extended J.A. Happ, and the St. Louis Cardinals just extended Adam Wainwright.  Both moves appear to be premised on the ideas that (1) Happ and Wainwright will have solid seasons in 2013 and (2) their current teams will want to retain them when they do.  Could be a lot of wishful thinking.

Happ will be 31 in 2014 and is a starter who has never thrown more than 166 innings pitched in a season.  Somehow it seems telling that mlbtraderumors.com reports the extension with a photograph of Happ apparently short-arming a pitch for Blue Jays.

Adam Wainwright will be 32 years old in 2014, and, after missing all of 2011 to Tommy John surgery, he came back in 2012 with a 3.94 ERA, far and away the highest of his career.  That said, right now Wainwright  can still pitch.  But is he worth $97.5 million from 2014 through 2018?

Yes, if he can stay healthy at least through 2017.  That seems like a mighty big if.

I take two things from these contract extensions: (1) teams are flush with money; and (2) starting pitching is very highly valued as we enter the 2013 season.  Can’t help but think that’s the lesson MLB is taking from two Giants’ World Championships the last three seasons.

Never Say Die

In Spring Time hope springs eternal.  Even the most aged or down-and-out ballplayers believe they have at least one last hurrah left in them.

The Reds have just signed perennial comeback kid Mark Prior to a minor league deal.  Since blowing his arm out in 2006, Prior has thrown a total of 49 professional innings over the last three seasons, after not pitching at all from 2007 through 2009.

Although Prior remains a real long-shot, his numbers at AAA Pawtucket last season at least create some room for hope.  In 25 innings pitched, Prior had a 3.96 ERA with a pitching line of only 15 hits, but four HRs and 23 walks, allowed and 38 Ks.  He’s still hard to hit, but his command is still long departed.

Vladimir Guerrero is looking for  a minor league deal this Spring.  He last played in the majors in 2011, but he’s still only 38 years old this year, assuming that 1975 is his real birth year (Guerrero admitted a couple of years back that he was older than he claimed when he originally signed with the Montreal Expos).

Guerrero played 12 minor league games for the Blue Jays last year, but asked for and received his release when the Jays did not immediately promote him to the majors.  His unwillingness to stick it out longer in the minors might impact teams’ willingness to sign him this Spring, since the odds of him getting a major league job out of Spring Training seem slim.

Guerrero could still hit when he last played in the majors (between .290 and .300 each of his last three seasons), but his on-base percentages declined precipitously, and his power numbers were also on the wain.  Even so, he could help a team in need of a right-handed hitter with pop, particularly if some one on the major league roster gets hurt.

Meanwhile, the Royals are still hoping to squeeze another year out of the soon to be 39 year old Miguel Tejada.  They signed him in late December to a minor league deal that promises him $1.1 million if he makes the major league club.

Tejada hasn’t played in the majors since 2011 and had a terrible .596 OPS in 343 plate appearances for the Giants that year.  Losing Buster Posey for most of the season was the biggest reason the Giants didn’t make the post-season in 2011, but giving Tejada so many plate appearances certainly didn’t help.

Tejada is hitting .267 with a .600 OPS in seven games so far this Spring Training.

Finally, Dontrelle Willis‘s most recent comeback, this time with the Cubs, hit a snag in his very first Spring Training game earlier this week.  Only seven pitches in, Willis came out of the game with “shoulder tightness” — apparently meaning that his shoulder hurt.

Willis has said the injury is minor, and he is reportedly resumed his throwing schedule in the Cubs’ minor league camp.  Willis wasn’t expected to make the Cubs’ major league roster this Spring, but it’s still disappointing that he couldn’t make it through one outing without hurting himself.

Schadenfreude

For those of you not up on your German, schadenfreude is the taking of pleasure in the misfortunes of some one else.  In this case, the misfortunes are happening to the New York Yankees, and I’m not exactly sad about it at all.

J. A. Happ broke Curtis Granderson‘s arm with a wild inside pitch in a Spring Training game today, and Granderson will miss ten weeks while his arm heals.  I’m certainly not saying I’m happy about Granderson getting hurt.  I don’t wish that any player get hurt. Also, Granderson’s a great player, and I always want great players to stay healthy and play.

It’s just that I find it hard not to take a certain pleasure when bad things happen to the Yankees as a franchise.  They spend so much money to buy up the best players, and the team and its fans are disappointed any year they don’t win the World Series, even if they go deep into the post-season.  As a fan of a team that had a long, long stretch of futility before the last three seasons, it’s hard not to enjoy seeing the Yankees fall flat on their collective faces once in a while.  See how the rest of us live, you New York blowhards!

Everything seems to be going wrong for the Yankees right now.  They have gotten old and so overpaid that the team can’t (or won’t — see below) simply spend to bring in a whole new line-up of new stars, as they did under the Boss.

Derek Jeter is old and coming off a broken ankle.  Alex Rodriguez will miss at least half the year after hip surgery and is embroiled in another steroid scandal.  Mark Teixeira isn’t the player he once was, and at age 33 isn’t likely to be that player again.  C. C. Sabathia in 2012 showed signs of the injury problems many analysts, including his one, have been been expecting for a pitcher his size now in his 30′s.

In a rare confluence of events, not only the Yankees, but also the Red Sox, look like they won’t make the play-offs in 2013.  The Sox lost 93 games last year, and they don’t at all look a team that will suddenly turn around and win 90+ games in 2013.

Meanwhile, the underdogs may finally be ready to have their days.  The Blue Jays made several big moves this off-season at what appears now to have been a particularly opportune time for them to do so.  Maybe they’ll make the post-season for the first time since they won the World Series in 1993.

The 2012 Orioles made the post-season for the first time since 1997, and they have a relatively young team that will presumably get better.

The Rays are one of MLB’s smallest market teams, but they make the most out of what they have to work with and can be expected to contend again in 2013.

The last time neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox made the post-season (excluding the strike-shortened 1994 season in which the Yankees finished with the best record in the American League) was 1993.  It’s long past time that someone else get the opportunity to fight it out in the play-offs.

That being said, the underdogs better make hay while the sun shines.  If the Yankees and Red Sox finish no higher than third in the Eastern Division, expect them to start shelling out again next off-season.  Their potential revenue streams (and in the case of the Yankees the fact that so many of their fans are front-runners) are such that it’s worth it for them to spend big on free agents if that’s what it takes to reach those play-off revenues.

The Best Hitting Pitchers in MLB Baseball 2013

The most popular posts I’ve written for this blog identify the best hitting pitchers currently active in major league baseball.  Given the level of interest, I have decided to update this piece annually, starting with this 2013 update.

As I’m sure you know, modern pitchers as a group can’t hit a lick.  The rise of the designated hitter, not only in the American League, but also it’s wide-spread use in the minors and in the college game is perhaps the biggest factor for the demise of pitchers who can hit, but it’s hardly the only one.

Pitchers simply don’t get as many opportunities to hit today because of the steady trend of using more and more relievers throwing more and more innings, which means starting pitchers get fewer opportunities to hit, and there are more opportunities for professional hitters to be used as pinch hitters.

Also, no matter what the old-timers tend to say, the level of major league play has gradually and steadily improved since the professional game started in the 1870′s, which means that pitchers, who make the major leagues solely based on their ability to pitch (which has been the norm since at least the early 1880′s and probably much earlier) have undergone a slow but steady decline as hitters by virtue of the relative improvement of pitchers (as pitchers), fielders and professional hitters, even though most major league pitchers were great hitters in high school.

Nevertheless, there are always a few pitchers in any era who can hit.  This post ranks current pitchers with at least 100 career major league at-bats in order to weed out the pitchers who just haven’t had enough at-bats for their career hitting stats to mean anything one way or another.  I may have missed a couple of qualifiers, but not more than a couple.

By today’s standards, a good-hitting pitcher is any pitcher with a career batting average above .167 or a career OPS over .400.  That’s really pretty terrible as hitters go, and it shows just how hard it is even for professional athletes who have played baseball all their lives to hit major league pitching if the players have not been selected for the major leagues based their ability to hit.

A few pitchers can swing the stick a little bit, though.  Here is my non-scientific list of the best hitting pitchers currently playing as we approach the start of the 2013 season:

1.  Micah Owings.  Micah Owings remains far and away the best hitting pitcher in baseball (at least if you exclude Rick Ankiel, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2004).  Micah’s career numbers have slipped a bit the last two season, likely due both to the law of averages and the facts that he isn’t a starter any more and didn’t pitch much last year due to an elbow injury.  His career batting average is currently .283 with an .813 OPS in 205 career ABs.

As I’ve written previously, it’s clear the Arizona Diamondbacks made a terrible mistake when, after drafting Owings in the 3rd Round of the 2005 Draft, they decided to develop him solely as a pitcher.

Owings is now 30 years old, and it’s doubtful he’ll ever develop into a good major league pitcher.  In fact, Owings just signed a minor league contract with the Washington Nationals with an invitation to 2013 Spring Training — the Nats signed Owings as a 1Bman, which strongly suggests they will try to develop him as a hitter.

Owings is getting old to switch positions, and it isn’t clear if he could still pitch if he and the Nats wanted him to.  He had arthroscopic elbow surgery last July and hasn’t pitched since last April.  Nonetheless, I still have a hope he’ll become the next Brooks Kieschnick, pitching, pinch-hitting and occasionally playing the field, depending on his team’s needs at the moment.

2.  Dontrelle Willis.  One of the things I always loved about Dontrelle was his ability to hit.  While he hasn’t played in the majors since 2011, he recently signed a minor league deal with the Cubs with an invitation to 2013 Spring Training.  In 2011 his last year of play, Willis batted .387 (12 for 31) with a 1.032 OPS to bring his career numbers up to .244 with a .665 OPS, respectively.

Dontrelle is now 31 years old, so it’s probably too late for him to make the switch to a position.  Too bad — as a 6’4″ lefty, he probably could have been major league 1Bman or corner outfielder if he’d been developed as a hitter.

3.  Mike Leake.  Leake remains the top young hitting pitcher in MLB.  He hit .295 with a .749 OPS last year, and despite his 2011 sophomore slump year, he still has a career batting average of .274 with a .656 OPS in 164 major league at-bats.  Leake walked only once last season, dropping his career on-base percentage to .308, but he hit for power for the first time in his career with two taters and five extra base hits.

I wonder what is more discouraging to a pitcher: walking the opposing pitcher or giving up an extra base hit.  Even though the latter would seem to have more value, the pitcher on the hill can better rationalize it: the batter got lucky, he’s a good-hitting pitcher, etc.  Everyone on defense slumps their shoulders when the pitcher walks his doppelganger.

4.  Carlos Zambrano.  In 2012 Big Z had his worst season swinging the ash since his 2002 rookie season, hitting only .176 with a .441 OPS.  Even so, he still has a career .238 batting average with a .636 OPS.

Carlos is an all-or-nothing hitter.  He has only ten walks to go with 240 strikeouts in 693 major league at-bats, but he has hit an impressive 24 HRs and 53 extra base hits.  He’s scored 75 runs and driven in another 71 in his career.  That’s better than a lot of middle infielders given the same number of at-bats.

5.  C. C. Sabathia.  He’s one of the most interesting players on this list.  Unlike all the other pitchers on this list, he’s only played one-half of one season in the National League.  As an American League hurler, he only gets to hit about two games a year, yet hit he does.  Despite going 0 for 5 at the plate in 2012, he’s still hitting .238 with a .598 OPS in 105 career at-bats.

Sabathia is tall and heavy set, which doesn’t sound like a recipe for a good-hitting pitcher, but obviously he’s just a baseball player pure and simple.  One wonders what kind of numbers he would put up playing three or four full seasons in a row in the NL.

6.  Yovani Gallardo.  The still young Brewers ace is another pitcher with pop at the plate.  Despite his worst season with the bat as a regular starting pitcher, Yovani still has a career batting average of .2o7 with a .599 OPS, thanks to ten HRs and 27 extra base hits in 305 career at-bats.

7.  Daniel Hudson.  After a break-out season in 2011 at age 24, Hudson blew out his elbow tendon after ten starts (nine for Arizona, one for AAA Reno) before having Tommy John surgery in early July.  Presumably, he won’t be back in action until after the 2013 All-Star Break.  At any rate, Hudson has a .229 batting average and a .573 OPS in 105 major league at-bats to date.

8.  Dan Haren.   Haren has a .223 lifetime batting average and .572 OPS.  In 2010, his last season in the NL, he hit .364 (20 for 55) with a .902 OPS. He signed with the Washington Nationals this off-season, so he’ll get the opportunity to hit regularly again in 2013.

Haren and Sabathia are the best arguments against the designated hitter.

9.  Adam Wainwright.  Wainwright’s hitting has dropped off his last two seasons (2010 and 2012), but he still has a career .204 batting average and .545 OPS in 367 major league at-bats.

Honorable Mention.  Livan Hernandez (career .221 batting average, .526 OPS, but his career might be over — he’d still like to pitch, but hasn’t been offered even a minor league contract as of early February 2013); Darren Oliver (.221, .545 — the latest word is he’ll be back with the Blue Jays in 2013, but he hasn’t had a plate appearance since 2006); Chris Narveson (.227, .522 — he missed most of 2012 to rotator cuff surgery, but the Brewers have signed him to a major league contract for 2013); Jason Marquis (.202, .508 — he hit well last year and he’s returning to the Padres for 2013); Manny Parra (.183, .500 — he signed with the Reds for 2013); Javier Vasquez (.204, .478 — rumor has it he’s interested in resuming his major league pitching career after a strong season in the Puerto Rican Winter League); Jordan Zimmerman (.190, .463); and Edwin Jackson (.200, .462).  As you can see, the best hitting pitchers get bad pretty fast.

Young Hitting Pitcher to Watch.  Stephen Strasburg.  He hit .277 (13 for 47) in 2012 with a .759 OPS, highest of any pitcher with at least 50 plate appearances, just beating out Mike Leake.  Strasburg’s career numbers are only .192 and .521, so it has yet to be determined whether he’s closer to 2012′s best hitting pitcher or the guy who started his career a pathetic-even-for-a-pitcher 1 for 26.

Carlos Zambrano started his career 1 for 32, before developing into a good-hitting pitcher, so I tend to think Strasburg will continue to hit well for a pitcher in future years.  One thing is for certain, however: with Strasburg, Haren, Zimmerman and possibly Micah Owings, the Nationals should have the best hitting pitching in MLB in 2013.

Alex Rodriguez in Another Steroids Scandal

Those of you have been readers of my blog for some time know that I am not a big fan of Alex Rodriguez as a human being.  For example, about two and a half years ago, I wrote a particularly intemperate piece about him after his run-in with Oakland A’s pitcher Dallas Braden, a piece for which a number of Yankees fans criticized me at the time.

Once again, Rodriguez has been linked to use of performance enhancing drugs (“PEDs”), and the allegations and evidence in support thereof look pretty damning.  Here is a link to the Miami New Times article which details all the references to ARod and his cousin Yuri Sucart, who was directly involved in the former’s steroid use in the early 2000′s, in the notes of Tony Bosch, the head of Biogenesis, the Miami “anti-aging” clinic that allegedly supplied steroids, human growth hormone (“HGH”) and other banned PEDs to numerous professional athletes.

The alleged athlete clients include baseball players Manny Ramirez, Bartolo Colon, Melky Cabrera and Yasmani Grandal and tennis player Wayne Odesnik, all of whom have been suspended in recent years for PED use.  Washington Nationals’ ace Gio Gonzalez and Texas Rangers slugger Nelson Cruz have also been linked to Biogenesis.

In 2010 Rodriguez was also alleged to have made made visits in 2009 to Canadian sports doctor Anthony Galea who was then being investigated for providing HGH to professional athletes.  Galea subsequently pleaded guilty to bringing mislabeled drugs including HGH into the U.S. to treat professional athletes.  At the time, ARod of course denied that Galea had given him PEDs.

Both Rodriguez and Gio Gonzalez have issued statements denying any use of PEDs or any connection to Bosch or Biogenesis.  Gonzalez, as a player who has never tested positive for PEDs and against whom the evidence appears more unclear, deserves the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

ARod does not.  Rodriguez is a known liar when it comes to steroids use.  He lied about his prior use of steroids in 2007; and when the evidence forced him to admit his prior use, he lied about his prior lies (“At the time, I wasn’t even being honest with myself. How am I going to be truthful with Katie [Couric] or CBS?” — what nonsense!)

Let’s hope the authorities seriously investigate this matter and force Tony Bosch to spill the beans about exactly who his clients were and what he gave them.

When all is said and done, MLB’s testing program seems to be at least somewhat successful.  Of the seven baseball players named in connection with Biogenesis, four have tested positive for steroids and been suspended.  Earlier this month, MLB and the players’ association agreed to begin testing for HGH during the playing season and to monitor players’ testosterone levels for spikes, which may explain why some players who were using have not tested positive to date.

Some players are always going to cheat with PEDs and try to find ways to get around the new drug testing regime.  That’s the entire reason why the testing program exists in the first place.  So long as at least some of the players are getting caught and suffering serious consequences in the form of increasingly long unpaid suspensions, it should have a deterrent effect on other players considering whether or not to use PEDs in the first place.

As a final thought, even though I am no fan of Alex Rodriguez and I hope he’s punished if it is proven that he has continued to use PEDs in recent years, he still deserves election to the Hall of Fame eventually.  He has been simply too good a player to leave out of the Hall of Fame entirely.  That said, I would feel no sorrow if he were made to wait until his last year of eligibility to be elected.

The Best and Worst Hitters’ Parks in MLB 2013

Last summer I discovered that espn.com provides stats for what it calls “park factor”, which for purposes of this post means the ratio between the number of runs scored at a ballpark in any given season divided by the number of runs scored by said ballpark’s occupant (and its opponents) in away games that same season.  I wrote a post last June which evaluates each park’s park factor for the five years ending with the 2011 season.

As we approach the 2013 season (and the 2012 stats have long been in), it seems like a good time to update my earlier post incorporating the 2012 season.  Without further ado, here are the average park factors for all major league ballparks over the last six season (or less for the five ball parks that have opened more recently).

1.  Coors Field (Rockies) 1.301

2.  The Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers) 1.148

3.  Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.134

4.  Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.131

5.  U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.111

6.  Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.086

7.  Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.080

8.  New Yankee Stadium (2009-2012) 1.066 [Old Yankee Stadium, 2004-2008, 1.002]

9.  Great American Ball Park (Reds) 1.057.

10.  Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.044.

11.  Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.018

12.  Rogers Center (Blue Jays) 1.010

12.  Miller Park (Brewers) 1.010

14.  Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) 1.008

15.  Marlins Park (2012) 1.005  [Sun Life Stadium, 2007-2011, 1.038]

16.  Nationals Park (2008-2012) 0.998 [RFK Stadium, 2005-2007, 0.892]

17.  Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.986

18.  Target Field (Twins, 2010-2012) 0.983 [Mall of America Field (the Metrodome), 2005-2009, 0.966]

19.  Turner Field (Braves) 0.978

20.  Progressive Field (Indians) 0.960

21.  Angels Stadium 0.939

22.  PNC Park (Pirates) 0.936

22.  Busch Stadium (Cardinals) 0.936

24.  Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 0.919

25.  AT&T Park (Giants) 0.917

26.  Dodger Stadium 0.915

27.  Citi Field (Mets, 2009-2012) 0.904 [Shea Stadium, 2004-2008, 0.886]

28.  Tropicana Field (Rays) 0.889

29.  Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.864

30.  Petco Park (Padres) 0.808

The rankings didn’t change much from last year.  Among last year’s ten best hitters’ parks, U.S. Cellular Park, where the White Sox play, was apparently a great place to hit in 2012, moving it up two slots.  New Yankee Stadium was apparently not a great place to hit, moving it down two slots. Coors Field improved on its status as far and away the best hitters’ park in MLB.

The Marlins’ new park, which looked like a great place to hit in late June of last year, turned out to be only a little better than average for the full season — we’ll have to see how it plays over the next few seasons.

The Royals’ Kauffman Stadium moved up two slots, and the Phillies’ Citizens’ Bank Park fell two slots.  The Astros’ Minute Maid Park also fell two slots.  The Twins’ Target Field was a hitters’ park for the first time in its three year history, jumping it up four slots.  The Pirates and Giants and their respective opponents scored a lot more runs on the road in 2012, causing both PNC Park and AT&T Park to drop three slots.

With another year in the books, the Mets’ Citi Field is developing into as much of a pitchers’ park as the old Shea Stadium.  San Diego’s Petco Park remains the worst place to ply one’s trade as a major league hitter, but Seattle’s Safeco Field narrowed the gap considerably.

Not Feeling Too Sorry for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens

I can’t say that I feel any sadness about Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens each failing to get even 40% of the vote in their year of Hall of Fame eligibility.  The sportswriters are rightfully sending a message that neither deserves to be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer due to the steroids taint.  I would have voted the same way.

In my mind, the big question is how the electors will vote next year and in the years after that. There’s no doubt that Bonds’ and Clemens’ on-field performances were better than merely Hall of Fame worthy.  There’s no reasonable way to conclude that these players don’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame because of their purported steroid use, while numerous other players from generations past have been elected in spite of similar conduct and worse.

For example, most of the Hall-of-Famers from the 1960′s, ’70′s and ’80′s used performance enhancing drugs in the form of greenies (amphetamine pills) and other stimulants during their playing careers.  MLB condoned or at least turned a blind eye to stimulant use by players for more than 40 years until the fall-out from the steroid scandal forced MLB and the players’ union to agree to a ban.

Ty Cobb once claimed that during his playing career he chased down a man who tried to rob him on the street and catching him several blocks away beat the attempted robber to death.  No effort has been made to throw Cobb out of the Hall of Fame.

The same goes for Cap Anson who today is remembered as much for being the poster boy for separate-but-equal in professional baseball when he refused to allow his team to take the field against an African American opponent as he is for being the first player to accumulate 3,000 hits in his career.  Again, no one is suggesting we throw Anson out of the Hall of Fame, even though MLB’s 60+ plus year de facto ban on players of African decent is a far bigger stain on baseball history than players trying to get an edge by taking performance enhancing drugs.

In short, Bonds and Clemens ultimately deserve to be in the Hall of Fame based on their on-field performances and the degree to which they dominated the game even in an era when a lot of players were using performance enhancing drugs.  If their 15 years of eligibility pass without their being elected, that would be a real travesty.

More Former Major Leaguers Sign with Asian Teams

South Korea’s KBO is growing by leaps and bounds.  More proof of this fact is the three signings announced in the last two days.

Scott Richmond, who pitched briefly for the Toronto Blue Jays last year, reportedly signed with the Lotte Giants for a reported $600,000.  Dana Eveland, who pitched 32.1 innings for the Baltimore Orioles last year, reportedly signed a $675,000 deal with the Hanwha Eagles.  Finally, Aneury Rodriguez, who pitched for the Houston Astros the last two seasons, signed a deal with the Samsung Lions for an as yet unreported amount.

Richmond looks like the kind of pitcher KBO teams usually sign.  He’s 33 in 2013, and he’s coming off a mediocre year as a starter for the AAA Las Vegas 51′s in the Pacific Coast League (5.61 ERA, which was still good enough to finish with an 11-7 record and fairly good strike out and walk ratios).

However, both Eveland and Rodriguez look a cut above the American pitchers who have joined KBO in recent years.  In fact, I’m surprised Eveland wasn’t recruited by a Japanese NPB team.  Eveland pitched well at AAA Norfork (2.79 ERA in 14 starts) and reasonably well for the Orioles (4.73 ERA mostly in relief), and he’ll only be 29 years old in 2013.

Aneury Rodriguez had a dreadful year in 2012, posting a 6.60 ERA for the AAA Oklahoma City RedHawks.  However, Rodriguez was only 24 years old last year, and he’s got major league stuff.  He just doesn’t have major league (or last year even AAA) command yet.  I don’t know why the Astros apparently gave up on him, although it’s possible that he became a minor league free agent based on service time once the Astros dropped him from their 40-man roster.

Along with the signing of Doug Slaten by the SK Wyverns earlier this week, it seems clear that KBO teams are determined to compete with Japan’s NPB for the best available 4-A pitchers.  If the reported Richmond and Eveland contract numbers are correct, it puts them near the very top of KBO player salary scale.

Meanwhile, NPB’s Yakult Swallows locked in their best foreign players with long (for NPB) contract extensions to Wladimir Balentien, Lastings Milledge and Tony Barnette.  Balentien reportedly signed a three-year $7.5 million dollar extension covering the years 2014 through 2016; Milledge reportedly signed a three-year $4.4 million deal with a mutual option for 2016; and Barnette reportedly signed a two-year $3.2 million deal.

In my mind, these are great moves for the small-revenue Swallows.  They have identified good young players (Barnette will be the oldest next year at age 29) who could potentially be stars in NPB for years, and once those players proved that they had what it takes to succeed in Japanese baseball, the Swallows locked them in to long-term contracts before they could flee to the high-revenue Yomiuri Giants, Hanshin Tigers or SoftBank Hawks for more money.  If the players in question stay healthy, the Swallows will definitely get their money’s worth.

 

The R. A. Dickey Trade

Here’s an article from Tyler Kepner of the New York Times which I thought was pretty good.  It struck me as written by a Mets/baseball fan, who is genuinely hurt that the Mets gave up someone who has pitched great for the team the last few seasons in exchange for as yet unproven prospects.

While I don’t necessarily agree with the article’s implicit/basic premise that the Mets should have extended R. A. Dickey for somewhat below market salaries rather than trade him for some pretty good prospects, it does raise some issues I’d like to write about.

Dickey has been pretty terrific for the Mets the last three seasons (fangraphs.com values his contributions at $43.1 million over the last three seasons).  According to espn.com, Dickey would have re-upped with the Mets for two years (2014 and 2015 — Dickey is locked in to a mere $5 million for 2013) at $26-28 million if they had made the offer.  In theory, it’s hard to understand why the Mets didn’t pull that trigger.

I suspect there’s still that age-old prejudice against junk-ball pitchers playing a role in the Mets’ thinking.  Very few pitchers can master the knuckleball, they tend to do it at an old age (for baseball players), and teams are usually more than a little suspicious about how long they can keep it up even once they’ve done it.

Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm remained at the top their games until age 46 and 47, respectively. However, there are so few truly outstanding knuckleballers in baseball history that it’s nearly impossible to project how any one knuckleballer will pitch in future years.

For example, I kept waiting for Tim Wakefield to perfect his knuckleball and enter the elite level Dickey has now apparently reached, but it never quite happened.  Some of the difference may have been the fact that Wakefield pitched half his games in an extreme hitters’ park, while Dickey reached his peak pitching half his games in an extreme pitchers’ park.  Even so, Wakefield never won more than 17 games in a season for some pretty outstanding Red Sox teams.

In short, I suspect that the Mets simply don’t trust Dickey to keep pitching even as well as he did in 2010 and 2011.  They figured that now was the time to cash in on Dickey while the getting was good.

They certainly got a return from the Blue Jays.  Travis D’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard are both grade-A prospects.

Also, even with Dickey, the 2o12 Mets were not a good team.  While Dickey went 20-6, the 2012 Mets went 74-88.  The team needs a serious talent upgrade, at least based on what we’ve seen the last few seasons.

At the end of the day, the trade comes down to whether or not Dickey has really reached the Phil Niekro/Hoyt Wilhelm level with his knuckleball.  If he has, then trading him for a catcher with knee problems (D’Arnaud) and a young pitcher who hasn’t pitched above the Class A level (Syndergaard) is a huge mistake.  If not, then the Mets went out and got talent while the getting was good.

The problem is that there just aren’t enough ace knuckleball pitchers to predict which of the two possibilities will occur until Dickey plays out his string.  In my mind, the Blue Jays got the better end of this trade (assuming they can extend Dickey at a reasonable amount — a contingency of this pendng trade), but we’ll have to wait and see what Dickey actually does the next few seasons.