The Jason Heyward for Shelby Miller Trade
This move strikes me as one the Braves could end up regretting for a really long time. Shelby Miller‘s strikeout rate dropped sharply last year and his walks rate was up. That could be a sign that that he’s going to have arm troubles, if not in 2015, then in 2016. Also, I hate betting against a position player as young and talented as Jason Heyward.
Sure, Heyward had some injuries in 2011 and 2013, and he didn’t hit enough either of the last two seasons. Even so, position players who establish themselves as major league regulars at age 20 almost always go on to have some pretty huge years in their peak seasons.
Also, except for the injury history, Heyward doesn’t have a lot of red flags. He doesn’t strike out too much, he gets on base and he still runs well. Fangraphs considers Heyward’s 2014 right field defense to be the best in MLB by an extremely large margin.
I also like the throw-in player the Cardinals got better. The odds that established reliever Jordan Walden is going to have future major league success is a lot higher than Tyrell Jenkins, a 22 year old with unimpressive strikeout rates in A-ball the last two seasons.
In about 10 years, Cardinals fans probably won’t feel as bad as they do now about the tragic death of Oscar Taveras, since this deal wouldn’t have happened had he lived.