Perverse Incentives

On the subject of Kenta Maeda‘s contract with the Dodgers, one obvious problem with the contract, at least as far as Maeda is concerned, is that none of the incentives are applicable to relief pitching.  This could create perverse incentives for the Dodgers going forward.

Two off-seasons ago, Maeda signed an incentive laden deal that guaranteed him $25 million over eight seasons, but could be worth $105 if every performance incentive is achieved.  Maeda made just over $20 million over his first two seasons of the deal, because he met many of the performance incentives.

However, by the end of the 2017 post-season, it’s a real question how much longer Maeda will be a regular major league starter.  He made 25 starts in 2017, but was dropped from the Dodgers’ deep starting rotation several times. At the same time, in 10.2 relief innings pitched in the post-season against the highest level of competition, Maeda allowed only a single run, suggesting that his MLB future may eventually come down to pitching out of the pen.  Needless to say, some Japanese ace starters in NPB have proven more effective as relievers in MLB — see, Kohi Uehara.

Maeda isn’t likely to take the Dodgers closer role from Kenley Jansen in the short term absent the latter’s injury, but it’s easy to imagine Maeda becoming the Dodgers’ top set up man.  The Dodgers will have to make that decision based on what is best for the team, but if Maeda as a top bullpen pitcher comes to pass, Maeda is screwed.

Maeda’s agents negotiated a contract based solely on Maeda as a starter.  If he becomes a top Dodger reliever, he’ll only earn $3.275 a year.  Brandon Morrow, the Dodgers’ top set-up man in 2017, just signed a two-year $21 million deal with the Cubs.  You can see the potential unhappiness that Maeda will feel if the Dodgers decide that his greatest value is in the bullpen.

Precisely because no one can predict the future, if I were the Dodgers management, I would offer to re-open Maeda’s contract now solely for the purpose of creating some performance incentives for relief appearances and games finished.  Maeda wants to be a starter, and the Dodgers want Maeda to a starter, but if it becomes apparent that Maeda’s greatest value to the team is out of the bullpen, then that’s what has to happen.

The Dodgers should get ahead of the situation by negotiating some relief pitcher incentives with Maeda.  They wouldn’t necessarily have to be too generous, since all the parties realize the Dodgers don’t have to renegotiate relief incentives in the first place.

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Explore posts in the same categories: Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers

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