Will Tyler Rogers Be Selected in This Year’s Rule-5 Draft?

The San Francisco Giants have not placed Tyler Rogers on their 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, so one would think the team might actually lose him this year.  Rogers has now had consecutive seasons at AAA Sacramento in which he’s posted ERAs of 2.37 in 2017 and 2.13 in 2018 over a total of 143.2 innings pitched.

Rogers is pretty much the poster boy for the purpose of the Rule 5 Draft: to allow teams a crack at highly productive high minor league players whom have not been promoted to the major leagues by their current organization.  In practice, teams often select higher upside, low minor league players whom they then waste a roster spot on for the next season, but players like Rogers are really the ones whom the rule is designed to benefit.

It’s clear that the Giants don’t consider Rogers to be any kind of a prospect.  He hasn’t received even a cup of coffee at the major league level despite his excellent AAA numbers, and the Giants are content to keep the even older and proven major league mediocrity Josh Osich on their 40-man roster.

MLB.com ran a list of the best Rule-5 candidates from each of MLB’s 30 major league teams, and they picked soon to be 21 year old RF Sandro Fabian as the Giants’ best Rule-5 candidate.  Fabian had a .585 OPS in 450 plate appearances at Class A+ San Jose last season, so it’s clear that he’s not going to be a major league caliber player for at least two full seasons.  A team like the Orioles that has no chance of being good in 2019 can afford to waste a roster space for a full season on a player like Fabian, but there aren’t many other major league teams that can.

There are a lot more teams that might benefit by selecting a player like Rogers, who might actually contribute at the major league level in 2019.

I understand that MLB doesn’t consider Rogers a legitimate prospect, but you would have to think there are at least a couple of major league teams like the A’s and the Rays, that would look at Rogers’ AAA performance in the hit-happy Pacific Coast League and figure what have we got to loose by selecting him and giving him a real shot except $50,000, which is peanuts in today’s major league game.

Rogers’ progress through the minors suggests that it can take him as much as half a season to adjust to the higher level of play once he reached the AA level.  Still, even if Rogers doesn’t initially play well enough to hold a major league roster spot, I have little doubt a trade couldn’t be swung to hold onto his rights, because obviously the Giants think very little of his major league prospects.

Explore posts in the same categories: Oakland A's, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays

One Comment on “Will Tyler Rogers Be Selected in This Year’s Rule-5 Draft?”

  1. Burly Says:

    Tyler Rogers went unprotected and unselected in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft, but he may have another option when he’s a minor league free agent next Winter. 26 year old starter Tyler Eppler went unprotected by the Pirates and unselected in the Rule 5 Draft also. Eppler saw the writing on the wall and signed a $600,000 contract for 2019 with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s NPB, even though he has no MLB major league experience. If Rogers has another strong season at AAA, he might be able to catch on with an NPB team on a $300,000 to $450,000 contract for 2020.

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