Archive for the ‘Arizona Diamond Backs’ category

Two More 1st Round Draft Picks Fail to Sign

July 7, 2018

Two more First Round Draft picks failed to get signed and will instead by pitching in college next year.  The Atlanta Braves failed to sign 8th overall pick Carter Stewart, and the Arizona Diamondbacks failed to sign 25th overall pick Matt McLain.  Add to those two, the Pittsburgh Pirates failed to sign 36th overall pick Gunnar Hogland.  For what it’s worth, all three unsigned 1st rounders and Hogland are high school right handed pitchers.

The 8th overall pick came with a $4.9807M slot value, but medical tests after Stewart was selected raised issues for the Brave, and according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis, the Braves’ final offer came “a lot closer” to the 40% of the slot amount ($1.992M+) the Braves had to offer to get the 9th overall pick in 2019 than the full slot amount.

Assuming that the Braves offered something around $2.5M, Stewart should have signed, but I can at least understand why he elected to attend Mississippi State with J.T. Ginn, the Dodgers’ unsigned first round selection.  It has to be disappointing to be selected this high and not receive an offer close to the slot amount when you have the leverage of being able to elect college.

On the other hand, the D’backs are reported to have offered McLain the full $2.6364M slot amount even though none of Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN, or fangraphs had him ranked in the top 50 of this year’s prospects.  McLain should have took the money.

Hoglund is another prospect who didn’t make any of the major raters’ top 50 (fangraphs had him at 55th), but didn’t sign.  However, mlbtraderumors.com doesn’t report any rumors as to what the Pirates offered him.

The four unsigned prospects is probably a single season Draft record.  Factors that may be contributing to the failed signings is that a four scholarship at a major university is now worth $200,000+.  College players at major programs get to be campus heroes and probably receive all kinds of perqs like personal tutors.  College athletes also make all kinds of connections that can help them in business after their playing careers are over.

Another factor is that MLB teams have shown that top pitching prospects can blow out their elbow tendons and still be first round draft picks.  Brady Aiken and Jeff Hoffman are two recent prospects who were drafted in the 1st round after having Tommy John surgery.  (It’s worth noting, though, that neither Aiken or Hoffman has done much yet to justify their high draft positions.)  That makes it a lot less risky for high school pitchers to elect to go to college rather than accept a $2M+ signing bonus to start their professional careers.

Advertisements

Ah, the Five Pitcher Shut-out

June 11, 2018

The Giants beat Max Scherzer and the Nats today using five pitchers.  Only in today’s game.

The Gints got five shut-out innings from Derek Holland,which is like a gift from the Gods.  But Bruce Bochy did not tempt fate or risk wrath (in keeping with the original metaphor) and went with four relievers for one inning a piece the rest of the way.

With Mark Melancon back and healthy, the Giants’ bullpen looks the best it’s looked all season.  Bumgarner is back and Cueto is on reputedly on course be back as soon as June 30th, the earliest date for his 60-day stay on the DL.

The NL West sucks: the Giants are only one game above .500, but in second place only 2.5 games back of the D’Backs.  Suddenly, the Giants’ 2018 strategy doesn’t look as much of a long-shot as it did when the season started.

The Giants are certainly no Justify, but at least there is reason to hope in early-mid June, and there’s something to be said for that.

San Francisco Giants Select Big Right-Hander Sean Hjelle in 2nd Round

June 5, 2018

The Giants selected 6’11”, 225 lbs righty Sean Hjelle out of the University of Kentucky with the 45th pick of the 2018 Draft.  His college numbers are not overwhelming.

Hjelle had a 3.44 ERA his junior season with a pitching line of 99 IP, 87 hits, five HRs, 22 BB and 91 Ks.  He did not appear to show any significant improvement as a pitcher from either his freshman and his sophomore seasons, although he did become a starter as a sophomore.

He’s big, and he can clearly pitch at the college level.  I guess we will have to wait and see how he does as a pro.  According to MLB.com, his best pitch is a knuckle-curve, and his so far not particularly impressive fastball through is first two college seasons may have hit 96 mph as a junior.  The feeling is that at 6’11”, his fastball may continue to improve as he puts on weight and receives MLB system professional training.

Hjelle would be tied for the tallest pitcher to pitch in the MLB majors with Jon Rauch, if he makes it.  Sixty years ago there was still a prejudice against very tall pitchers, but since then each generation has shown that pitchers can get taller and still be effective major leaguers.  Randy Johnson may have killed the theory completely.  The mlb.com blurb emphasizes Hjelle’s “remarkable coordination” and his ability to repeat his delivery.

I watched some of Hjelle’s highlight videos on youtube.  I couldn’t tell much from the videos, other than the fact that Hjelle’s was really long as a sophomore, he was definitely bigger as a junior, and he’s got an impressively high leg-kick out of the wind-up.  He does seem to be good at repeating his motion, and he looks like a pitcher, in spite of the extreme height.

One thing to be said about Hjelle (pronounced “Jelly”) — he will be great for the Giants’ PR department if he makes the major league squad.  “He’s Hjelle good!”  “They may call him “Jelly,” but he sure jams the hitters!”  Silly but clever ad-lines are everywhere with this name.

Best Hitting Pitchers in MLB Baseball 2018

May 12, 2018

Shohei Ohtani has more or less blown up any discussion of the best hitting pitchers in major league baseball.  He’s created a whole new paradigm for two-way players that hasn’t existed since the 1920’s and the only question is whether he is the start of a new trend or a one-off.

Highly touted prospect Brendan McKay is still on pace to be the next two-way player, although he’s still got a long way to go and his hitting abilities may not be able to keep up with his pitching abilities as he shoots up through the minors.  McKay is already ready for a promotion to A+ ball as a pitcher, and I wouldn’t hold him back to let his hitting catch up.  Still, major league pitchers who can also pinch hit should have value in today’s extreme relief pitching game.

1.  Shohei Ohtani.  I didn’t want to jump on the Ohtani as hitter bandwagon too soon, but I was convinced he’s for real (even if he doesn’t continue to bat .344 and produce over 1.000) when he beat the shift with a double down the left field line about a week ago.  Ohtani has what it takes to be a great major league hitter, although he’ll face his forced adjustments and his hitting performance will be affected by the many games in which he does not bat.  That said, the baby-faced 23 year old phenom can hit.

2.  Madison Bumgarner (.185 career batting average and .555 career OPS).  MadBum is still baseball’s best full-time pitcher hitter, but the bloom is off the rose compared to Ohtani, who will be DHing three times a week until major league baseball pitchers prove they can get him out.  A one-on-one Ohtani-MadBum home run derby at the All-Star Break would be an enormous amount of fun.  Madbum should be healthy by then.

3.  Zack Greinke  (.229 BA, .579 OPS).   One thing I’ve noticed about good hitting pitchers, writing about them as I have for some years now, is that there doesn’t seem to be a particularly strong correlation between a pitcher’s ability to hit and his having spent his minor league time or the vast majority of his MLB career with a National League team, even though this would presumably mean that the pitcher got a lot more opportunities to hit.  After spending his minor league career and his first seven major league seasons with the Royals, Greinke established himself as a fine hitter by his second National League season.

If I had to guess, I would say that the ability to hit the fastball (and lay off breaking pitches) is probably the most important factor in a pitcher’s ability to hit.  Pitchers hate to walk the opposing pitcher, so any time the pitcher-as-hitter is ahead in the count, fastballs for strikes are likely to follow.

The fact that the Diamondbacks are apparently not willing to give Greinke even half a dozen opportunities to pinch hit each season is a missed opportunity.

4.  Yovani Gallardo (.229, .564).  Gallardo’s career as a major league pitcher may be over, but he sure could hit.

5. Adam Wainwright (.199 BA, .529 OPS).  Another player whose major league pitching career is winding down, but with well over 500 career at-bats, Wainwright has well proven his abilities as a hitting pitcher.

6.  Noah Syndergaard (.181 BA, .561 OPS).  A poor start to the 2018 season has brought Syndergaard’s batting average below the Mendoza Line, but he has power and will take a walk.

7.  Daniel Hudson (.226, .567).  Since coming back from an arm injury as a major league relief pitcher, Hudson has had only one plate appearance since 2012, but he could hit.

8.   Mike Leake (.200, .511).  Mike Leake hasn’t had a plate appearance yet this year, as he is now an American League pitcher.  He hit a ton his first three seasons with the Reds, but hasn’t done much with the bat since.

9.  Tyler Chatwood (.214, .485) and Tyson Ross (.199, .476).  As I point out every year, the best hitting major league pitchers get pretty bad pretty fast.

Honorable MentionsCC Sabathia (.212, .539)  CC hasn’t had a hit since 2010, but he could hit when he had the opportunity to bat more than three or four times a season.  Travis Wood (.185, .537).  Wood’s major league career appears over.

Young Hitting Pitchers to Watch.  Michael Lorenzen (.226, .618).  A shoulder injury has prevented Lorenzen from pitching or hitting so far in 2018.  Ty Blach (.194, .505) hit as a rookie in 2017 but is off to a terrible start with the bat in 2018.  Ben Lively (.182, .545) still has to prove he can be a major league starter.

Is It Too Soon to Call Shohei Ohtani the Best Hitting Pitcher in Major League Baseball?

April 11, 2018

Every year just before or just after the regular season starts I write a post of the best hitting pitchers in MLB.  These articles are some of the most popular I’ve written, so I do it pretty religiously every year until now.

This year, I don’t know what to do about Shohei Ohtani.  He’s hit home runs in three consecutive games, including one that traveled nearly 450 feet, but he has had only 19 major league plate appearances.

I have generally tried to limit my list to pitchers with at least 100 major league at-bats in order to weed out great one-season fluke performances.  But no one has come along like Ohtani in several generations, a true two-way player who can’t really be compared with anyone I’ve seen play in MLB since I became a fan in 1978.

Ohtani also has an established track record in Japan’s major leagues.  How much credit do you give him for that?  On a scale from 1 to 10 with the MLB AAA a 1 and the MLB majors, I would rank NPB’s majors as a 4.  NPB is a good league, but it’s not the MLB majors.

There is no doubt even with a limited sample size that Ohtani is an elite MLB rookie prospect on both sides of the ball.  It still remains to be seen on the hitting side how quickly he will adjust once MLB pitchers, scouts and analytics guys find the holes in his swing.  (As a pitching prospect, Ohtani has a less of a problem — unfamiliarity is a pitcher’s friend, and as long as he can continue to command his pitches, it could well be 2019 before major league hitters figure out how to attack his exceptional stuff.)

As such, I’m going to hold off on my annual article until I feel more confident that Ohtani’s performance is for real.  With Ohtani DHing three times a week, that shouldn’t be too long.

The thing that excites me even more than Ohtani’s exceptional MLB performance so far, is that his breakthrough has the possibility of effecting a paradygm shift in MLB.

For the last generation at least, MLB teams have a made a decision when they draft or sign an amateur player that they will develop that player either as a hitter/position player or as a pitcher.  Most of the time MLB teams make the right decision, but once in a while you get a two-way player on whom the team makes the wrong decision.

For example, I think the odds are high in hindsight that Micah Owings would have had a more successful major league career if the DiamondBacks had elected to develop him as a hitter, rather than as a pitcher.  Owings was a real prospect on both sides of the ball out of college, but under the old regime, the D’Backs made a decision that he was going to be a pitcher and stuck with it until he hurt his arm and couldn’t be a pitcher any longer.

With early first round 2017 picks Brendan McKay and Hunter Greene, the Rays and Reds have made at least some effort to develop them as two-way players, at least while they are still in the low minors.  I strongly suspect that Shohei’s performance in Japan had something to do with decisions to try to so develop McKay and Greene at least a little bit as two-way players, because everyone in MLB knew well by the time of the 2017 amateur draft what Ohtani was doing in Japan at a level of play too high to be an aberration.

Obviously, there won’t be a whole lot of players so good on both sides of the ball that MLB teams will try to develop them as two-way players.  However, there was always be a few top amateur prospects who can do everything on a baseball field.

In today’s game, two-players could be extremely valuable, at least enough to give these prospects a chance to try both in the low minors and see how it goes.  The American League has the DH, which is ideal for taking advantage of a two-way player, but the NL still needs pinch-hitters and there are fewer roster spots for them now that all teams are carrying more relief pitchers.

In 2003-2004, Brooks Kieschnick had some value as a relief pitcher/pinch hitter/emergency left-fielder for the Brewers. (Kieschnick had been developed as a hitter, and only turned to pitching when his MLB career as a position player didn’t pan out — he’d been an effective college pitcher but it wasn’t a close call when he was drafted as a hitter.) Why not give at least a few two-way prospects two-way training in the minors leagues to try to develop a more valuable major league player down the line?

Diamondbacks Did Well to Sign Dyson

February 20, 2018

The Arizona Diamondbacks reportedly just reached a tw0-year deal with Jarrod Dyson for $7.5 million guaranteed.  That’s a lot less (proportionately) than the $12 million predicted by mlbtraderumors.  In Dyson’s case, I think it’s age discrimination.

Dyson will be an old 33 in 2018, but he’s the kind of player who ages well because he runs so well.  Fangraphs says that Dyson was worth $16.9M in 2017, mainly because of his still great defense.  Fangraphs also says that Dyson is coming off a five-year period in which he’s been worth as much as $24.8M and never less than $14.6M in a season.

The teams have not been kind to over-30 free agents this off-season, and this is the latest example.  Dyson’s value afield will likely dip in 2018 given his age and the overall trend of the last four seasons, but at worst he’ll be an above average defensive center fielder.  Playing half his games in Arizona, he may yet have his best offensive season in 2018.

$16M for two seasons would be a more realistic bet for Dyson’s value over the next two seasons, but why pay more?  Apparently, only Arizona thought he was worth $7.5M for two seasons, and only because they just lost J.D. Martinez.  Teams have been more than willing to sign free agents in Dyson’s expected contract range this off-season, so it seems likely there really wasn’t much interest anywhere until Martinez committed to Boston.

The Dbacks weren’t going to replace Martinez’ bat.  So why not add defense?  Martinez’ defense is pretty bad, so Dbacks pitchers should get two outfielders better in 2018 with the addition of Dyson.

Boston Red Sox Reportedly Reach Agreement with J.D. Martinez

February 20, 2018

The Boston Red Sox have reportedly reached an agreement with J.D. Martinez on a five year contract that guarantees Martinez $110 million and contains opt-outs after both years two and three of the deal.  The deal is front-loaded with Martinez earning $50 million through the first two seasons and $72 million through the first three seasons but only $38 million over the last two seasons.

Martinez is guaranteed a full $40 million less than mlbtraderumors.com predicted, but he gets the two opt-outs.  The effect of the deal is that it is much more future performance driven that the free agent contracts of old, as Martinez will almost certainly opt out if he has seasons in either 2019 or 2020 in which he plays in 150 game and has an OPS at the average of his last four seasons (2014-2017).

What I find interesting about this contract and to a lesser degree with Eric Hosmer‘s recently reported contract with the Padres is the degree to which the contract is front loaded.  In years past, teams always tried to push the highest paid seasons toward the end of the contract term in order to take advantage of the time value of money.  When added to the 100 year old tradition of paying superstars more as they got older, even as their performances began to decline, the time value of money was a powerful incentive for teams to back-load contracts.

What is clearly going on is that teams no longer want albatross contracts, where the teams are paying massive amounts of money for poor performance later in the contract period.  In particular, wealthy teams like the Red Sox expect to contend every year and certainly do not intend five year rebuilding periods that small market teams resign themselves to.

Teams are now obviously more concerned with paying top dollar for the years they reasonably anticipate getting top performance and paying less as the player gets older.  Teams are realizing that no matter how wealthy or poor they are, they have a certain budget for player salaries each season which increases over time at a fairly predictable rate in line with predicted future revenue increases.  If you push back free agent contract compensation to the later years, those are years in which the team is predictably resigning itself to mediocrity or worse.  Added to this are the incentives in recent collective bargaining agreements which punish teams for going over an imposed salary cap.

In the late 1980’s Bill James wrote an article about how the New York Yankees under George Steinbrenner were on what amounted to a second-place treadmill.  At that time the Yankees were building their teams largely around elite free agents, who were really good only for a year or two and then became expensive mediocrities that prevented even baseball’s richest team from building a truly great ball club.  It’s taken awhile for teams to learn the point that James was making all those years ago, but it now seems the teams have learned it.

As time passes, we will see more contracts which reject the old rules of free agent contracts.  I’m certain of this, because we’ve seen over the years the way in which free agent contracts have evolved, for example using team options, player options and opt-out clauses.

Also, I took a sports law class in law school in which the students negotiated various player contracts.  Coming into the practice negotiations with fewer preconceptions about what the contract should look like and negotiating only on the basis of the factual situations involving the player and the team, we came up with some pretty wild contracts.

In representing an imaginary football player in negotiations with an imaginary team that was hoping to win it all the next season and had the money to spend now, I negotiated a two year deal in which the player received 85 or 90% of the contract amount in the first season with most of the 85 or 90% in the form of a signing bonus, so that the money would already be paid out to the player even if he got hurt as soon as he started play for his new imaginary team, since NFL contracts are typically not guaranteed due to the frequency of serious injuries in football.  Also, I wasn’t taking into account taxation or the fact that young athletes tend to spend money as they make it and won’t necessarily be prepared to save enough in year one to handle the steep drop in compensation in year two.

In the real world, past practice tends to shape contracts in the short term, not to mention the fact that the parties involved in the negotiations are better aware of all the real world variables.  Over time, however, real world contracts will ultimately get to roughly the same place as law school experiments if the factual situations are roughly the same (and taking into account all the real world variables).

Owners would love to get back to the world before free agency, not only when players could not access a free market of teams competing for their services, but also when a player’s compensation was determined a year at a time and was thus largely linked to the immediately preceding year’s performance and thus anticipated next season performance, and could be quickly reduced if the player ultimately had a bad season the next year.

Both Martinez’ contract with the Red Sox and Yu Darvish‘s recent contract with the Cubs require the players to perform at an extremely high level in the early years of their respective deals to fully reap the potential benefits of the contract.  That is well to the advantage of their signing teams, and this year the teams have been able to impose these terms on these players.  We’ll see what happens next off-season, but I think we’ll be seeing more of the same.