Archive for the ‘Cincinnati Reds’ category

MLB Teams Want Shorter Free Agent Contracts

January 18, 2018

There has been a lot of talk this off-season about the fact that only two of the top dozen free agents has yet signed a contract. mlbtraderumors.com weighed in again on this issue today.

The one thing that seems obvious to me looking at the players who have signed free agent contracts this off-season so far is that teams want shorter contract lengths (i.e., no more than three years) and will pay more per year to get them.

No team has yet signed a player to more than three years.  However, the players who have agreed to three year deals have done pretty well, at least compared to mlbtraderumors’ predictions for its top 50 free agents, which experience has shown deserve a lot of weight.  mlbtraderumors has a formula it uses and tweaks every off-season based on the previous off-season’s signing results, and their predictions have proven to be well better than educated guesses.

Carlos Santana’s three-year $60 million deal is the biggest free agent signing so far.  mlbtraderumors correctly predicted the three-year term, but underestimated the payout by $5 million per year.  Tyler Chatwood (predicted 3 years $20M; actually received 3 years $38M). Jake McGee (3/$18M; 3/$27M), Mike Minor (4/$28M; 3/$28M), Bryan Shaw (3/$21M; 3/$27M), Tommy Hunter (2/$12M; 2/$18M), Pat Neshek (2/$12M; 2/16.25M), Michael Pineda (2/$6M; 2/$10M) and Miles Mikolas (2/$10M; 2/$15.5M) all did significantly better on two and three year deals than predicted.

Meanwhile, only Addison Reed (4/$36M; 2/$16.75M), CC Sabathia (2/$24M; 1/$10M), Yonder Alonzo (2/$22M; 2/$16M), Brandon Kintzler (2/$14M; 1/$5M) and Howie Kendrick (2/$12M; 2/$7M) have done significantly worse than predicted.  Zack Cozart (3/$42M; 3/$38M), Jay Bruce (3/$39M; 3/$39M), Juan Nicasio (2/$21M; 2/$17M), Jhoulys Chacin (2/$14M; 2/$15.5M), Welington Castillo (2/$14M; 2/$15M), Anthony Swarzak (2/$14M; 2/$14M) and Steve Cishek (2/$14M; 2/$13M) got right around what was predicted.

Finally, both Wade Davis (4/$60M; 3/$52M) and Brandon Morrow (3/$24M; 2/$21m) got one fewer year than predicted, but at a much higher annual rate, so much higher, in fact, that one has to think there wasn’t much incentive to hold out for the extra year.  I think these signings make it likely that each of Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will be forced to accept three year offers, although probably for only $3M to $6M less than mlbtraderumors predicted over four seasons.

I suspect that advanced analytics have suggested to teams something they already knew: long-term free agents contract can be a long-term albatross around a team’s neck is veteran player gets hurt or old fast.  Better to pay more per season for fewer seasons so the burden of a bad contract doesn’t hurt the team for as many seasons.

I could see Yu Darvish being forced to accept a five-year deal in the $140M to $150M range, although as the No. 1 starter available this off-season, I think someone will eventually give him a sixth season.  The reported rumors sound as if both Kansas City and San Diego have made Eric Hosmer offers close to the six years and $132M that mlbtraderumors predicted.

The market for J.D. Martinez does not seem to be developing as predicted, but the four years at $100M predicted for Jake Arrieta seems likely to be met since he is the second best free agent starter available.  Scott Boras is representing a number of top free agents this year, and his asks have been pie-in-the-sky, as they always are.  I don’t believe the reports that any free agent will wait until after the 2018 regular season starts to sign, because that is an absolute value killer for a free agent if ever there was one.

It’s likely that a majority of the mid-range free agents (Nos. 20-50) who haven’t yet signed won’t do as well as the predictions, however, based on the fact that many teams have now filled their needs by the free agent players signed to date.

 

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The Ten Best Players from the U.S. Virgin Islands in MLB History

December 31, 2017

Lately, the tiny island nation of Curacao (current population 150,000) has garnered a lot of attention for all the great baseball players produced there.  Before Curacao, the tiny Caribbean island nation (sort of) that produced a surprisingly large number of major league players was the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The first Virgin Islander to play in the major leagues was Valmy Thomas on April 16, 1957.  Thomas was born in Puerto Rico, where he later experienced the greatest share of his professional baseball success, because his mother didn’t trust the hospitals in the U.S. Virgin Islands and thought she’d get better care in Puerto Rico.  However, mother and baby returned to the Virgin Islands shortly after the delivery.  Joe Christopher was the first major league player actually born in the Virgin Islands when he broke in in 1959.

Including Thomas and Julio Navarro, who was also born in Puerto Rico but grew up on St. Croix, at least 16 Virgin Islanders have played in the majors.  Here is my list of the best ten:

1. Horace “Hoss” Clarke (1965-1974).  The starting 2Bman in the period immediately following the end of the New York Yankees’ multi-decade dynasty, Clarke was in his prime a terrific defensive 2Bman, leading the Junior for six consecutive seasons in assists (1967-1972), four consecutive seasons in putouts (1968-1971) and twice in double plays (1969, 1972).  He was also seen as a good lead-off man in his day, but he was definitely an old-school lead-off man who ran well and stole bases but didn’t really get on base enough for the role.

Clarke’s reputation in his own day was affected by the fact that the Yankees were no longer consistent winners, as one of the team’s best players in this era, he took a lot of undeserved heat for it.  He also had a reputation for not being tough on hard slides into second base to break up the double play, but as noted above, he did lead the AL twice in turning double plays and never finished lower than 5th (in a 10- or 12-team circuit) in this category in any of the seven seasons between 1967 and 1973.  He was also a polite but quiet man who preferred playing musical instruments to talking, something that probably didn’t endear him to sportswriters looking for good quotes and copy.

Like most Virgin Islands players of his era, he played many winters in Puerto Rico where V.I. players were more or less treated like locals, and like several other V.I. players Clarke took a Puerto Rican wife.  After his career, Clarke returned to St. Croix, where he taught children to play baseball and also worked for a time as a scout for the Royals.

2. Al McBean (1961-1970).  Al McBean is not at all well remembered today, because his nine year Pittsburgh Pirates career was played entirely between the 1960 and 1971 teams that were World Champions.  He won 15 games as a starter in 1962 and then was gradually converted to a reliever over the 1963.  The Pirates’ top reliever Elroy Face took McBean under his wing and taught McBean how to pitch in relief situations while having McBean over to his house to BBQ.

McBean went 13-3 with 11 saves in 1963, posted a 1.91 ERA with 21 saves (tied for 2nd best in NL behind Hal Woodshick‘s 23 saves) in 1964, and posted a 2.29 ERA with 19 saves (tied for 4th best) in 1965.  McBean wasn’t as good after that but remained an effective reliever and starter for the Bucs though 1968.

McBean had a hard sinker that was hard to elevate, and he threw from different arm angles to give hitters diverse looks.  He was known for his sense of humor and tried to put on a show for the fans, which sometimes got him called a hot dog.  He was also a flashy but stylish for the time (mod) dresser who became famous in Pittsburgh for a white suit, white tie and white shoes ensemble.  He sometimes drew comparisons to Muhammad Ali.

McBean also married a Puerto Rican woman named Olga Santos, whom he told the first time he met her that one day he’d marry her.  They married about nine months later in Pittsburgh.

Surprisingly, McBean never made an All-Star team, but he played in the one and only Latin American Players’ Game, the last game played at Manhattan’s old Polo Grounds on October 12, 1963, attended by 14,235 fans.  It was played for charity with NL and AL squads featuring Roberto Clemente, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal, Luis Aparicio, Minnie Minoso and Tony Oliva among others.  The National League team won 5-2, and McBean was involved in the game’s most exciting play: a triple by McBean that drove in Tony Gonzalez but on which McBean was thrown out at home plate on a Minoso to Aparicio to Jose Azcue relay.  For what it’s worth, the players on the two teams were disproportionately Cubans, reflecting all the great players coming out of that country before the Revolution.

McBean finished his major league career with a 67-50 record, 63 saves and a 3.13 ERA.  He returned St. Thomas after his career, working in housing and recreation for the Virgin Islands government.  Needless to say, he thinks most of today’s highly paid stars are soft.

3.  Elrod Hendricks (1968-1979). Part of Earl Weaver‘s catcher’s platoons for many years, Hendricks played for much of the Orioles’ greatest period of success between 1966 and 1979.  Hendricks didn’t hit for much of an average (.220 lifetime), but he’d take a walk and hit not too infrequent home runs, two things that Earl Weaver loved.  In fact, Weaver discovered Hendricks while managing in Puerto Rico after several unsuccessful attempts by Hendricks to establish himself playing in the U.S.

Hendricks was also a fine defensive catcher who throw out 38% of attempted base stealers during his career.  He played in five post-seasons, four with the O’s.  He played 16 seasons of winter ball in Puerto Rico and was the Orioles’ bullpen coach for a remarkable 28 years.

He was also a great handler of the Orioles’ great pitching staff.  He caught Jim Palmer‘s no-hitter on August 13, 1969, and Palmer had great things to say about Hendricks, despite their sometimes contentious disagreements about pitch-calling while Palmer was on the mound.

The most famous play in Hendricks’ career happened in the 1970 World Series.  In Game 1 with the score tied 1-1, Reds pinch hitter Ty Cline hit a high chopper off home plate, which Hendricks grabbed with his bare hand.  Berno Carbo came charging in from third trying to score.  Hendricks lunged towards Carbo trying to apply the tag as umpire Ken Burkhart moved forward to call the batted ball fair.  Burkhart and Hendricks collided, spinning Burkhart to the ground as Hendricks tagged Carbo with his empty mitt.  Burkhart called Carbo out, and Carbo and Reds manager Sparky Anderson argued vociferously.  This was before instant replay replay reversal, but the instant replays on TV showed clearly, both that Hendricks had tagged Carbo with the wrong hand and that Carbo had completely missed home plate.  Carbo did not touch home until he did so unaware as he argued with Burkhart.  Here is the replay from youtube.

4. Jose “Shady” Morales (1973-1984).  Morales and Manny Mota were generally recognized as baseball’s best pinch hitters during the 1970’s.  Morales’ 25 pinch hits in 1976 broke Dave Philley‘s 1961 record (tied by Vic Davalillo in 1970) and lasted until John Vander Wal stoked 28 in 1995.

Jose Morales’ had started his professional career as a catcher because of his strong arm, but developed a reputation as a defensive liability there.  Becoming a top pinch hitter kept on major league rosters, and he later had success as part of a DH platoon for the Minnesota Twins.

Morales played professionally for more than twenty seasons, including two decades of Winter ball in Puerto Rico.  When he retired his 123 career major league pinch hits was third best all-time, and he still ranks 8th best all-time.  He then worked as a hitting coach and instructor and now lives in the Orlando area.

5.  Jerry Browne (1986-1995).  Known as the “Guv’nor,” Browne had his best season as the starting 2Bman for the 1989 Indians, when he slashed .299/.370/.390.  Despite being a fast base runner who got on base, Browne was inconsistent and wasn’t good at turning the double play.  Ultimately, he developed into a utility man who played 2B, 3B and all three outfield positions.  He’s done some couching for major league organizations and now lives in Texas.

6.  Joe Christopher (1959-1966).  Joe Christopher had one great major league season when he was one of the few bright spots on a dreadful 1964 Mets team.  He slashed .300/.360/.466 and recorded 10 assists as the team’s primary right-fielder.  As a pinch-runner for the Pirates, “Hurryin’ Joe” scored two runs in the 1960 World Series.

He was the fifth player drafted by the expansion 1962 Mets.  His most vivid memory of the 1962 season was teaching center fielder Richie Ashburn how to say “Yo la Tengo” (“I got it!”) so that he wouldn’t collide with Venezuelan shortstop Elio Chacon, only to have Ashburn get run over by the much larger left fielder Frank Thomas.

Christopher credited his hitting success in 1964 in part to a pamphlet written by Paul Waner, which Christopher sent away for for 50 cents based on an add in the Sporting News, and a meeting he had with Waner in 1961.  Christopher also played in Puerto Rico for many winters and married a Puerto Rican woman, although the marriage lasted only about six years.  After baseball, he went into advertising.

7.  Midre Cummings (1993-2005).  Cummings moved to Florida for his final year of high school and became a first round draft pick for the Twins (29th overall in 1990).  He developed a reputation in baseball, perhaps unjustly, as a player with a lot of talent but who had a bad head in that he was too lackadaisical in his training and work habits.  He was never able to establish himself as an everyday player at the major league level, but he eventually established himself as an effective pinch hitter, leading his league several times in pinch hits.

The highlight of Cummings’ major league career, perhaps, was the 2001 post-season, where like Joe Christopher before him, he was used primarily as a pinch runner and scored three runs, two of them in the World Series, including the tying run in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 7.  Cummings now lives in Tampa and coaches children.

8.  Jharel Cotton (2016-2017).  Cotton came to the U.S. at the age of 16.  He went 9-10 with a 5.58 ERA as a rookie starting pitcher for the A’s in 2017.  He’s got a live arm, but he will be 26 in 2018, so we’ll see where his career goes.  On August 9, 2016, Cotton fell one batter short of pitching a perfect game in the AAA Pacific Coast League, allowing a triple to the 27th batter with two outs in the ninth.

9.  Calvin Pickering (1998-2005).  Pickering also moved to Florida for his final year of high school.  Although a 35th round draft pick, he showed both a tremendous ability to hit and to hit for power as soon as he started his professional career.  Alas, weight issues (he reported to Spring Training at least one year weighing 300 lbs and never played at much less than 260) and the injuries that came with them prevented him from becoming a major league star.

Pickering hit 35 home runs at AAA Omaha in only 379 plate appearances during his age 27 season and played for half a season in South Korea’s KBO two years later.

10.  Valmy Thomas (1957-1961).  My next post will be devoted to Valmy Thomas, who had a very interesting professional career.

The Ten Best Nicaraguan Players in MLB History

December 25, 2017

I recently had dinner with the Nicaraguan side of my second family.  Not surprisingly, I have been inspired to identify the best ten Nicaraguan Players in MLB history.

1.  Dennis Martinez (1976-1998). He has been the most famous Nicaraguan baseball player for a couple of generations now, so much so he’s mentioned in the 1983 Nick Nolte/Gene Hackman movie Under Fire.  Small wonder — he went 245-193 in his 23 year major league career.

Martinez led the American League in innings pitchedm (292.1) and complete games (18) in 1979 for the World Series losing Baltimore Orioles; led the AL in wins in a four-way tie with 14 in the 1981 Strike season; and led that National League in ERA (2.39), complete games (nine) and shutouts (5) as a 37 year old Montreal Expo in 1991.  He was the first and still the best Nicaraguan player ever to play in MLB.

Here’s an interesting factoid from wikipedia about Martinez: “On September 28, 1995, a wild pitch by Martinez broke the jaw of Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett. This would be Puckett’s last official game of his career, retiring in 1996 due to glaucoma in his right eye, a problem unrelated to Martinez’s pitch.”  Puckett batted right-handed, so the pitch probably hit him in the left-side of the face.

I don’t think of Dennis Martinez as quite being a Hall of Fame pitcher.  However, his 245 career wins are going to look even better to Veteran’s Committee members (or whatever MLB calls them now) as time passes.

2.  Vicente Padilla (1999-2012).  Padilla was a successful right-handed starter who finished his major league career 108-91.  Padilla signed his first contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks a month before his 21st birthday, which is old for a Latin American prospect, after working with Dennis Martinez in Nicaragua to improve his change-up.

I remember Padilla as having a reputation as a bean-ball artist.  The stats bear out my memory.  Padilla led the AL in HBP with 17 in 2006, and he plunked at least 15 in a season three other times.  Padilla is 67th all-time in hitting batters (109), and Dennis Martinez is tied for 50th all-time (122) in many more games and innings pitched.

Pitchers will always doctor baseballs and throw at batters, if they can get an advantage by doing so.  A pitcher coming out of a hard-scrabble place like Nicaragua (only Haiti and Honduras have lower per capita GNP in the Western Hemisphere), you’re going to do what it takes to win ballgames.  By my calculation, Padilla made at least $54 million playing professional baseball around the world, so his pitching style clearly worked for him.

3.  Marvin Benard (1995-2003).  Benard was born in Bluefields, Nicaragua and moved his family to the Los Angeles City of Bell at the age of 12.  He was generally beloved in San Francisco, although he really only had two great major league seasons, his age 27 and 28 seasons.  Then he got old fast.  The Giants signed him to a three-year $11.1 million for the next three years (2001-2003).  Benard was hurt much of 2002, the Giants surely didn’t get their monies’ worth in the final year of the deal.

Marvin’s son Isaac Benard is a 21 year minor leaguer for the Tampa Rays, who didn’t hit great at the Rays’ A- team in 2017, the Hudson Valley Renegades of the New York-Pennsylvania League.

4.  Albert Williams (DeSousa) (1980-1984).  Albert Williams was a top starter on three bad Minnesota Twins’ teams from 1981-1983 and started the Twins’ season opener in 1984.  His career story is especially interesting.

Williams was originally signed by the Pirates’ organization in 1975 and he played two years in the low minors in their system.  However, in 1977, he couldn’t get a visa from the Nicaraguan government to play in the U.S., so he was forced to remain in Nicaragua, where he joined the Sandinistas and fought against the Somoza dictatorship for 16 months.  He then was “smuggled” out of Nicaragua to pitch for the Panama franchise in the Inter-American League in its sole season of 1979.

The Inter-American League had six teams in four countries plus Puerto Rico, but didn’t make it through a full schedule, with teams playing between 72 and 51 games for the season before the league folded.  An interesting idea, but travel expenses must have been great.

Williams then signed with the Twins’ organization.  He also pitched six winters in the Venezuelan Winter League including the 1983 Caribbean Series for the Tiberones de La Guaira.  However, Williams’ didn’t have great stuff, and it looks as if his pitching arm gave out, based on the fact that he last pitched in the MLB system in 1985 at the age of 31 after a rapid descent.

5.  Wilton Lopez (2009-2014).  Like Williams above, Lopez was a good pitcher whose MLB stardom only shown briefly.  The middle four years of his major league career, he was a strong right-handed reliever, who went 16-15 with 11 saves.  He fell apart the next season, and last pitched in the MLB-system in 2015, his age 31 season.

According to recent reports from La Prensa as of late September 2017, reports are that Lopez’s wing has recovered enough from whatever was afflicting it two years ago for him to have signed to play baseball professionally in Nicaragua and play on the Nicaraguan National Team.

6.  Everth Cabrera (2009-2015).  The National League’s leader in stolen bases in 2012 with 44, the lowest total to lead the Senior Circuit since Craig Biggio’s 39 in 1994, Everth Cabrera was a good major league player only two seasons, that year and the next.  Cabrera is probably most famously remembered outside of San Diego for his 50-game suspension arising out of the Biogenesis PED scandal, which came down late in the 2013 season.  He was never the same after that, and his 2017 performance at AAA Syracuse at the age of 30 makes it unlikely he’ll play in the MLB-system in the future.

According to La Prensa, Cabrera is also playing professionally in Nicaragua this Winter and on the National Team.

7.  Erasmo Ramirez (2012 – present).  Now we get into the players who are active in MLB now.  Erasmo Ramirez is a 27 year old sometime starter, sometime reliever, who has a career W-L record of 30-35 with three saves.  Ramirez was an effective No. 3 starter for the 2015 Tampa Rays, going 11-6 with a 3.75 ERA.

Ramirez also pitched well in 11 starts for the Seattle Mariners after being acquired from the Rays near the 2017 trade deadline and is apparently going through the salary arbitration process with the M’s.  mlbtraderumors.com projects him to make $4.7 million in 2018.

8.  Cheslor Cuthbert (2015 – present).   Cheslor Cuthbert is a 3Bman going into his age 25 season.  If Mike Moustakas does not re-sign with the Kansas City Royals, Cuthbert should be first in line to take that job and with it the opportunity to become a major league star.  His defense is not good, but major league adequate.  He hit well as a 23 year old rookie in 2016, but not at all in his 2017 sophomore season.  He’s hit at AAA Omaha and he’s young enough that you have to think the odds are reasonably good if he enters the 2018 season as the Royals’ regular third-sacker.

9.  J.C. Ramirez (2013 – present).  Since the Anaheim Angels selected Ramirez off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds in late June 2016, his performance has been eye-opening, first in relief in 2016 and then as an unexpected starter in 2017.  He went 11-10 last year with a 4.15 ERA over 147.1 IP.  However, he was shut down in late August after experiencing forearm pain, he struck out only 105 batters, and he’ll be 29 in 2018, so there are no guarantees going forward.

10.  David Green (1981-1987).  Green arguably had a better major league career than J.C. Ramirez or Chestlor Cuthbert has had to date, but I’m fairly confident the latter two will finish their major league careers ahead of Green.  Green could hit a little, but in his two seasons as an MLB regular, he walked less than 5% of his plate appearances.  Although he had the arm and speed to play right field and back up in center field, he mostly played 1B in the majors, a defensive position he didn’t hit well enough for.  He was part of the infamous Jack Clark trade in February 1985, which ultimately netted the Giants only Jose Uribe.   That’s definitely going to hurt his all-time rating with this Giants fan.

Green later played for part of a season (1986) in Japan’s NPB, as Vicente Padilla did in 2013.  Green does not appear to have played professionally since his age 30 (but more likely age 31) season in 1991.

Green’s back story is interesting.  His father Edward “Eduardo” Green had been one of the great players in Nicaraguan baseball history.  Eduardo originally though this first some Eduardo Jr. would follow in his footsteps.  However, Jr. didn’t have the talent, while younger son David did.  Eduardo Sr. shifted his attentions to David when the latter was about 15 years old, and was reportedly an abusive instructor.

Green signed a contract with the Milwaukee Brewers in June 1978 for a $20,000 signing bonus. The Brewers scout Julio Blanco Herrera pulled out ten $100 bills from his pocket and paid Green a “down-payment” at a time when due to the Nicaraguan Revolution it was extremely difficult to get cash because the banks and businesses were all closed and food had to be paid for in cash.  Eduardo Sr. died of a series of heart attacks while David was playing in the MLB minors.

On the eve of breaking through to the majors, Green was regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball.  However, he was isolated from his family in Nicaragua because of the war, and he may have started to develop an alcohol problem.  Green’s mother died during Spring Training 1984, which may have deepened his problem with alcohol, and perhaps cocaine, which was sweeping through major league baseball at that time.

Green briefly went into rehab in 1984, but left to resume playing baseball without having kicked his habits.  His drinking problem resurfaced in an ugly way after his playing career, when he was convicted of driving while intoxicated following an accident in St. Louis in which an elderly woman ultimately died. He likely served less than a year in jail based on the jury’s recommendation of six months of incarceration.

10 of the 14 Nicaraguan born players to play in the major leagues have been pitchers.  Nicaraguan major leaguers have disproportionately been Afro-Nicaraguan players.

As a final note, all of Cabrera, Cuthbert and the two Ramirez’s played on Nicaragua 2013 National Team that failed make the World Baseball Classic after getting blown out in qualifying games against Columbia (8-1) and Panama (6-2).  It tells you how good even the second-tier Latin American National teams are now.

KBO and NPB Signings, Part I

November 30, 2017

While things have been slow in MLB this off-season with no major free agents yet signed as I write this, the Asian major leagues have been more active in filling their roster spaces reserved for foreign players.  The roster limits for foreign players in South Korea’s KBO and Japan’s NPB are as follows.

The KBO allows each of its ten teams to sign three foreign players, at least one of whom has to be a position player.  In fact, all KBO teams have signed two foreign starting pitchers and one position player since the league expanded foreign player roster spaces from two to three a few years ago.

The NPB allows only four foreign players on each of its twelve teams major league active roster at any one time, but has no limits on the number of foreign players who may be signed by an organization.  Thus, NPB teams now average about six foreign players per organization, with at least two stashed in NPB’s lone minor league in case a foreigner on the major league roster gets hurt or becomes unproductive.

The trend in recent years has been for NPB to sign foreign relief pitchers in greater numbers to serve as closers and top set-up men, roles that are more highly valued in Japan in terms of NPB’s salary scale compared to that of MLB.  Further, there are more MLB-system, borderline major league relief pitchers who have a high probability of success in NPB than at any other position.

Because the KBO has tighter limits on the number of foreign players their teams can sign and also the fact that MLB-system 4-A players have a higher probability of success playing in the KBO than in NPB due to the lower overall level of play in the KBO, KBO teams are now offering starting salaries to foreign players comparable to NPB starting salaries; and the two leagues are now largely competing directly to sign many of the same foreign players, subject to the fact that the KBO hasn’t signed any relief pitchers in several years.

A foreign player who succeeds in NPB can look forward to much higher salaries down the road than a foreign KBO star.  NPB salaries max out at around $5.5 million, while Dustin Nippert‘s 2017 contract that paid him a reported $2.2 million is the highest salary a foreign player has earned in the KBO’s history.  I also suspect that more first year contracts in NPB are guaranteed than first year KBO contracts for foreign players.

With all that said, here is a run-down on some of the contracts signed by foreign players in the KBO this off-season.

After a 20 win season for the Korea Series champion Kia Tigers, Hector Noesi just signed a $2 million deal for 2018, a $300,000 raise from last year, making him only the second foreigner in KBO history to receive a $2 million annual salary.  Noesi will probably be the KBO’s highest paid foreign player in 2018, because it is anticipated that Dustin Nippert will be forced to accept a significant pay cut after going “only” 14-8 in 2017 and not pitching particularly well in the season’s second half.

KBO teams are expected to bring back at least 60% of the foreign players who finished the 2017 KBO season for their teams, higher than usual.  Brooks Raley, Roger Bernadina, Darin Ruf, Mel Rojas Jr., Ryan Feierabend and Merrill Kelly all re-signed with last year’s teams for at least $1 million, topped by Ruf and Kelly who will make respectively $1.5M and $1.4M in 2018.  Esmil Rogers will also be returning to the KBO after a year away recovering from Tommy John surgery for a cool $1.5 million.

The most notable new players who signed contracts to play in the KBO in 2018 are starting pitchers Angel Sanchez and Tim Adleman.  Sanchez will make a reported $1.1 million in 2018 and Adleman a reported $1.05M.

I like the signing of Adleman more than those of either Sanchez or Esmil Rogers.  I’m not sure how much Rogers has left, and I’m surprised that the SK Wyverns gave this much money to Sanchez given his skimpy MLB record.

Adleman, on the other hand, has made 33 MLB starts and pitched a total of 192 innings at the highest level over the last two seasons.  He led the Cincinnati Reds in innings pitched in 2017, which says more about the sorry and re-building state of the Reds 2017 rotation than it does about Adleman’s abilities as an MLB pitcher.

However, Adleman pitched well enough that I would expect him to pitch great in the KBO so long as he stays healthy next season.  He’ll be taking all he’s learned in what amounts to more than a full year as an MLB starter into what is a decidedly inferior league.  Adleman just turned 30 years old, but on a one year deal, that doesn’t much matter.  I would guess that Adleman’s contract is guaranteed, while Sanchez’s is not.

The lowest salary I’ve seen a rookie foreign player so far to sign to play in the KBO in 2018 is the $575,000 that the Hanwha Eagles gave Jason Wheeler.  $100,000 of that amount is a signing bonus, which I assume means the remaining $475,000 is not guaranteed but will have to be earned by remaining on the Eagles’ roster.  However, Wheeler is only 27 in 2018, which means if he can hack it in the KBO, he’s got a good chance of making a lot more money in the future.

Some People Never Learn

July 7, 2017

I was perusing today’s box scores and I noticed that the Reds batted Billy Hamilton lead off today, in spite of his sub .300 career on-base percentage.  I then looked at some other recent Reds’ box scores and saw that this seems to the normal state of things in Cincinnati.

As usual, the Reds have plenty of hitting and plenty of guys who get on base.  Yet they elect to make their lead off man a guy who rarely gets on base, much lower in fact than the major league average for all players.

Yes, I understand that Billy Hamilton is really, really fast, but I thought that in this Money Ball age, everyone recognized that a dead slow player with a .360+ OBP is going to score more runs by the end of the season than the fastest player in the game with a .300 OBP.  Billy Hamilton in his three seasons as a regular player has not scored more than 72 runs in a season, although he might do so this year, because the Reds have so much hitting behind him in this year’s line-up.  Hamilton has never scored more than 72 runs in a season in spite of his tremendous base stealing and base running because he simply doesn’t get on base enough.

Hamilton and his career .297 OBP should be batting seventh, eighth or even ninth in the Reds’ line-up, at least until he proves he can get his OBP above .335.  Then the Reds might be able to take advantage of all that speed in the lead-off spot.

Aside from the fact that he doesn’t get on base, Hamilton’s also an out-making machine, which is a problem that all low OBP lead-off men have.  Billy Hamilton currently leads the team in outs made, followed closely by Jose Peraza, another player who doesn’t walk much, but has hit near the top of the line-up way too much because he runs well.  Outs are a precious commodity, and no team can afford to give extra outs away and expect to win.

The problem here is really manager Bryan Price‘s fault.  He’s in his fourth season as the Reds’ manager, and he has yet to come anywhere close to .500 season.  That probably has as much to do with his insistence in batting guys who don’t get on base in the lead off spot, as it does the Reds’ meager revenue streams.  At this point, it seems that the last 20 years of statistical analysis must have completely passed Price by or flown right over his head.

Who Saw Four Home Runs from Scooter Gennett?

June 7, 2017

Anyone who bet on Scooter Gennett to have a four home run game, that’s like winning the trifecta on three horses running longer than 20-to-1 to win.

You have to give Gennett credit: he really socked all four pitches.  My favorite was the home run the opposite way to left field, where he hit it just fair and to the shortest part of the yard, but still no cheapy since he hit it 10 or 12 rows deep.

Pat Seerey (86 career HR) and Mark Whiten (105) were clearly the worst modern home run hitters to hit four in a game.  Both Whiten and Gennett had only 38 career HRs the day before their big day.

Pat Seerey was a player with skills that would be much more recognized today than in his own time.  Mark Whiten was five months younger than Scooter Gennett on their special days.

Mark Whiten’s career was a disappointment after his 1993 season, the year he hit four, although he was good in 1996, the only subsequent year he played more than 100 games — injuries were a big part of his limited career HR total.

If Scooter Gennett stays healthy, I think he’ll show a marked improvement going forward, sort of like Daniel Murphy since his performance in the 2015 post-season.  Sure, it’s only one game, but when a player accomplishes something this rare and sees the company he’s now keeping, it has to boost a player’s self-confidence tremendously.

I don’t know how Scooter wouldn’t feel confident after watching footage of his four swings.  He really socked ’em.

Gints Stink

May 7, 2017

I’m really starting to think the 2017 San Francisco Giants are just a good old fashioned lousy team. Yeah, yeah, there is still theoretically plenty of time for the Giants to turn things around, but losing back to back games by at least 10 runs is something lousy teams do.  And they were only 11-18 before the last two games.

The Giants have now allowed more runs than any team in MLB and scored more runs only than the K.C. Royals.  Given how early it is in the season, I put more stock in the back to back blow-outs in Cincinnati.

Great teams win a lot of blow-outs, and bad teams lose a lot of blow-outs.  The Giants during the recent run have more than their share of close game wins due to a strong bullpen and good defense.  This year, the bullpen looks pretty poor, and the defense isn’t keeping games close.

Right now, the Giants don’t even have much in the way of veteran talent to trade, in the extremely likely event they are sellers at this year’s trade deadline.  Buster Posey is a franchise player, so it’s hard to imagine the Giants trading him.  Johnny Cueto has a contract, with an opt out this off-season, which dramatically reduces his trade value.

Brandon Belt is playing reasonably well, and his contract is relatively team friendly, so it’s definitely a possibility he could be traded.  However, Belt’s power has been largely swallowed up by AT&T Park, so it may be hard to get his true value on the trade market.

The Giants also don’t have any obvious replacement for Belt, with former 1st round draft pick Chris Shaw looking like he won’t be ready until some time in 2018.  Shaw is presently slashing .306/.422/.529 after 25 games at AA Richmond.

If Shaw keeps hitting, I would expect him to be promoted to AAA Sacramento after another 15 games in AA ball if he keeps hitting the way he has so far.  Then, if he hits quickly at AAA, the odds go up dramatically that the Giants trade Belt in late July for prospects.

We shall see.