Archive for the ‘Los Angeles Dodgers’ category

Yasmani Grandal’s Shocking One-Year Deal with the Milwaukee Brewers

January 10, 2019

The Brewers have reportedly reached agreement on a one-year contract with Yasmani Grandal for $18.25M, well less than the four year deal at $64M guaranteed that mlbtraderumors.com projected.  It’s obviously a pillow contract for Grandal, who after turning down a four year offer from the Mets with at least a $50M guarantee couldn’t find any other similar offers.

It’s still a tremendous surprise.  Grandal is only 30 years old, and his average annual value for the Dodgers the last four seasons (according to fangraphs.com) is $22.48M, topping out at $28.7M in 2018.  It’s shocking he apparently couldn’t get a three-year offer for the same average annual value he’s getting on his one year deal with the Brewers.

The deal is obviously a coup for Brew-Crew and makes up (in my mind at least) for not taking a risk on bringing back Jonathan Schoop on a one-year deal.  Clearly, Grandal’s thinking must be that because he can’t receive another qualifying offer next off-season, a big year in Milwaukee will result in a much better offer next off-season than he received this off-season.  Now, Grandal and his agent need to pray for good health and a hot, hitter-friendly summer in Milwaukee.

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Another Slow MLB Off-Season

January 10, 2019

It’s been another slow MLB off-season, and this baseball blogger is finding it hard to find much to write about except how slow the off-season free agent signing period has been.

Is it collusion? Maybe, maybe not.  Given the past history, I’m am always justifiably suspicious when teams stop spending on free agents.  Player salaries were down in 2018 for the first time since 2010.  However, things aren’t exactly rosy for MLB in spite of a currently booming economy.  Post-season TV ratings are down, and eleven teams failed to draw two million fans or average 25,000 fans per game in 2018, with attendance in Tampa and Miami absolutely dreadful by recent standards.

Add to these trends are the fact that analytics have given teams a reason not to spend quite so much on free agents.  Mainly that seems to be playing out in shorter free agents contracts, rather than lower annual averages.

I have been particularly impressed with the accuracy of mlbtraderumors.com’s contract predictions for its list of the top 50 free agents this off-season, at least in terms of the amounts of the contracts that have signed so far.  The main difference between the predictions and the actual contracts signed so far is that many of the contracts are a year shorter than predicted, but actually feature higher average annual salaries.  As such, it really could be possible that teams have simply gotten smarter about giving long-term deals to the majority of free agents, who are not reasonably likely to any good in those last additional seasons.

[As an aside, I noticed that mlbtraderumor’s predictions piece got many comments criticizing the fact that it hadn’t accurately predicted most of the actual signing teams.  In my opinion these criticisms are kind of stupid and fairly typical of a lot of the negative comments people like to write.  With 30 MLB teams, the vast majority of the top 50 free agents are going to have three to five teams serious about signing them, with numerous other teams who see the player as a Plan B if the free agent they really want signs with someone else and also a few bottom-feeders like the Twins last off-season willing to jump in at the last minute if the free agent can be signed as a relative bargain.  That makes it pretty hard to accurately predict which team signs which free agent.  The contract-length-and-amount predictions, and the relative accuracy thereof, feels a lot more pertinent and significant to me.]

It’s also worth noting that we could expect Bryce Harper and Manny Machado to go into January unsigned, as both are trying to wring record-setting deals out of their respective suitors.  Neither Harper (injuries, inconsistency, maturity level) or Machado (maturity level, post-season performance) is without his faults, which means it’s going to take some work to get them the deals that they and their agents dream about.

Like last season, some of the players who haven’t signed yet are going to get squeezed, particularly if they aren’t Harper and Machado — these two will get paid no matter what — it’s just a matter if they are guaranteed $200M+ or $300M+.  Of course, none of the still free agents is going to go to bed hungry anytime soon.

As a final note, I appreciated the creativity of the most recent big free agent signing, that of Zach Britton.  While it guarantees Britton $39M, which was just a little more than mlbtraderumors.com predicted, it provides tremendous flexibility to both the Yankees and Britton.  Britton can opt out after two years and $26M, and after year three the Yankees have a $14M team option for 2022.  Although I have a problem with Scott Boras’ conflicts of interest and his Trumpesque puffery, he is extremely creative in terms of working out the best possible deals for his most elite clients.  I can’t imagine that Britton doesn’t feel pretty good about this deal.

Best Foreign Pitching Prospects for Taiwan’s CPBL 2019

January 6, 2019

The last few years I have been taking a greater interest in the foreign players, nearly all pitchers, who pitch in the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) each season.  Like every independent league, the CPBL is looking for the best, most immediately effective foreign pitchers it can find within the league’s salary structure for the three roster spots available to foreign players on each CPBL major league roster.

Foreigners signing a first CPBL contract typically receive a $45,000 to $55,000 guarantee for the season’s first three months.  If the foreign pitcher pitches well enough to be retained for a full season, said foreign pitcher can earn $120,000 to $150,000 for what amounts to an eight month season, given the many, many rainouts in Taiwan and including Spring Training.

A player with at least one day of MLB major league service cannot be paid less than $90,400 for minor league service time or less than $555,000 for major league service time in 2019.  Thus, most players with any amount of past MLB major league service time who are able to secure a contract to pitch in AAA in 2019 will elect to do so, rather than travel to Taiwan.  Further, these players can also usually secure an opportunity to pitch in one of the top four Caribbean Winter Leagues, where they can make as much as $50,000 or $60,000 if their Winter League team makes the playoffs, which run long relative to short Winter League regular seasons of 40 to 60 games.

The next best summer league after the CPBL is the Mexican League, and CPBL teams often sign American-born pitchers to contracts the off-season after the pitcher has a successful season in the Mexican League.  Mexican League salaries cap at about $8,000 a month for what is usually no more than a five month season, but there is rumored to be extensive cheating on salary caps for the best foreign players, real compensation may be closer to $60,000 for the season.

While Mexican League players definitely make less than CPBL players, Latin American players, particularly those from the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Mexico or Venezuela, typically prefer to pitch their summers in Mexico and then pitch in their home countries in the Winter, where they are big, big stars and likely have some endorsement opportunities if they play at home.  Because the CPBL 120-game season tends to run so long, pitching in the CPBL can interfere with the player’s ability to play the first month of the Winter Leagues, which is a definite drawback for these players.

The CPBL signs a relatively high number of first contracts with foreign pitchers age 32 or older.  A lot of pitchers who can still pitch have by their age 29 to 32 seasons aged out of the MLB system and either aren’t quite good enough or young enough to be signed by KBO or NPB teams.  KBO and NPB teams rarely sign any foreign player to a first contract over the age 31 unless the foreigner has a very substantial MLB major league record.

With those considerations in mind, here’s my list of the best pitchers who might reasonably sign with a CPBL team this off-season.  There are many available pitchers with the necessary talent to pitch in the CPBL, particularly among 2018 AAA starters who aren’t able to obtain an MLB minor league contract for 2019, so I don’t claim my list is definitive.  It’s simply too difficult predict whether any individual pitcher no older 28 with the necessary talent and track record will elect to pitch in the CPBL during the off-season.

Kyle Lobstein (age 29 in 2019).  Kyle Lobstein pitched 128 major league innings with a 5.06 ERA between 2014 and 2016 for the Tigers and the Pirates.  However, at the start of 2018, he found himself without an MLB minor league contract and thus began the season in the Mexican League.  He pitched well enough there in the first half (2.95 ERA in 11 starts with good ratios) to secure a contract in the Dodgers organization.  He pitched well at AA Tulsa (2.56 ERA in seven starts) but not as well at AAA Oklahoma City (5.14 ERA in seven starts).  He’s still unsigned for 2019 as I write this.  Lobstein tops my list because he’s still reasonably young and has a major league pedigree.  He’s also a left-hander, which doesn’t hurt.

Barry Enright (33).  Another former major leaguer with a career major league record similar to Lobstein’s, Enright also had a similar 2018 to Lobstein’s.  After pitching well in 13 Mexican League starts, he signed with the DiamondBacks organization.  He pitched O.K. at AA Jackson, but got bombed in four appearances totaling eight innings at AAA Reno.  Reno is a tough place to pitch, playing in possibly the best hitters’ park in the already hit-happy Pacific Coast League.

Lobstein is obviously a better CPBL prospect, but Enright is certainly more likely not to receive an MLB contract between now and when CPBL teams begin signing new foreign pitchers later this month or in February.

Josh Lowey (34).  Josh Lowey is to the Mexican League what Mike Loree is to the CPBL.  Mike Loree is currently the CPBL’s best starter and one of the most productive foreign pitchers in CPBL’s 29 season history.  Josh Lowey has never pitched in the MLB system, having worked his way up from the Independent-A Leagues.  In five Mexican League seasons, he now has a 55-24 record, which is fine indeed.

Lowey got a chance to pitch in the KBO in 2016, and he got hit pretty hard (6.30 ERA in 60 IP) and his command was poor.  However, he was playing for the KBO’s worst team that season, and he struck out 68 KBO hitters.  He certainly has the talent to succeed in the CPBL.

Lowey is getting up there in age, but he was still terrific in 2018.  He went 14-5 in Mexico during the summer with a 3.12 ERA, a 1.178 WHIP and 133 Ks in 144.1 IP.  This Winter he pitched in the Dominican Winter League (DWL), where he went 6-2 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in 12 starts.  In the DWL’s post-season, he has a 2.45 ERA after three starts.

Lowey didn’t pitch in the Winter Leagues last year, which may have been the reason no CPBL team signed him then.  CPBL teams tend to like at least some Winter League performance the off-season before they bring a new foreign pitcher in.  Lowey has that in spades this year, as he was one of the best starters in what is probably this off-season’s best Winter League.

Tyler Alexander (27).  Another lefty, Tyler Alexander spent three full seasons pitching in Fargo in the Indy-A American Association.  He had been in the Brewers’ organization, but during a period when his grandmother died and his long-time girlfriend broke up with him, he tested positive twice for marijuana, which led to an 50-game suspension from MLB.  Because the Brewers released him, it meant that any signing team had to wait while Alexander served out the 50-game suspension.  So no MLB organization signed him, and he pitched in baseball’s boondocks for three years.

Alexander pitched well in the Mexican Pacific League (LMP), Mexico’s winter league, the previous two off-seasons, but he didn’t get a shot from a summer Mexican League team.  Instead, he joined the Indy-A CanAm League this past spring, which isn’t any better than the American Association, but gets more attention from scouts because the teams play on the East Coast.  He pitched reasonably well and was signed by the Quintano Roo Tigres to pitch in the Mexican League’s second half.  He went 4-3 with 3.81 ERA and a 1.223 WHIP and 48 Ks in 54.1 IP south of the border.

Alexander has been even better in the DWL this winter, posting a 2.68 ERA with a tiny 0.87 WHIP and striking out another 48 batters in 50.1 IP.  He also has a 1.42 ERA after three DWL post-season starts.  The DWL is an extreme pitchers’ league this off-season, but Alexander, like Lowey, has unquestionably been one of the league’s best starters.

After all these years, MLB has waived Alexander’s old 50-game suspension last spring, so an MLB organization could sign him without penalty.  MLB teams are fully aware of what’s going on in the DWL, as are NPB teams, to it’s quite likely either an MLB organization or an NPB team could soon sign him.  If not, he’d make a great prospect for the CPBL.

Tyler Cloyd (32).  Another pitcher with more than 100 MLB major league innings under his belt, Cloyd pitched badly in 17.2 major league innings with the Marlins in 2018, but pitched fairly well for the AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes in 2018, posting a 5.17 ERA in 15 starts with a 1.336 WHIP and 68 Ks in 85.1 IP while walking only 18.  Cloyd is still presumably looking for a minor league contract for 2019, but at his age probably won’t receive one.  He’s another pitcher I could definitely see pitching in Taiwan in 2019.

Bryan Evans (32).  Evans had an interesting 2018 season.  After spending 2017 in the Atlantic League, he started the 2018 season in the Mexican League where he went 3-3 with an unimpressive 4.82 ERA and a WHIP over 1.5 in 11 starts.  But that was good enough for the Mariners to sign him to pitch at AAA Tacoma, where he pitched better.  He went 6-3 for the Rainiers in 14 starts with a 4.40 ERA with a 1.262 WHIP and 71 Ks in 77.2 IP.

Evans also pitched this winter in the DWL where he went 0-3 with a 4.34 ERA, but struck out 29 batters in 29 innings pitched with a 1.372 WHIP.  Evans looks a lot like the kind of pitcher who pitches in the CPBL, and he hasn’t done so yet.  Maybe 2019 will be his year.

Patrick Johnson (30).  He had a good 2018 in the Mexican League, going 12-5 with a 4.02 ERA, 1.307 WHIP and 86 Ks in 116.1 IP.  He didn’t pitch for a winter league team this year, which I think will hurt him with CPBL teams, particularly since his 2018 season looks a lot like a small right-hander (5’10 and 170 lbs) about to have arm problems.

Will Oliver (31), Nate Reed (31) and James Russell (33).  Three 2018 Atlantic League stars who have pitched well in the LMP this winter.  Oliver and Reed are still pitching effectively in the LMP’s post-season, and James Russell has 394 career MLB major league appearances, mostly in relief.

Colin Rea (28), Burch Smith (29) and Sean Nolin (29).  Three pitchers with MLB major league experience coming back from Tommy John surgery, who are all still young enough that I expect they’ll be pitching in the MLB minors in 2019.  However, one could slip through to Taiwan.

Andre Rienzo (30), Paolo Espino (32) and Guillermo Moscoso (35).  Three Latino pitchers with MLB major league experience who I could see pitching in the CPBL in 2019.  Rienza is a Brazilian who has had arm problems, but he had an 0.76 ERA in nine second half starts in the Mexican League season and was brought in at the end of the LMP season to allow only two runs in 18.1 IP across three starts including one in the post-season so far.

Espino is a Panamanian who pitched effectively but certainly not spectacularly in 10 AAA starts for the Colorado Springs Sky Sox this past summer.  He’s been fantastic in the DWL so far this winter.

Guillermo Moscoso has already pitched in NPB, so he’s willing to play in Asia,  but he’s also a Venezuelan who has played eight seasons in the Venezuelan Winter League (VWL).  I could see him deciding that the situation is so dire in Venezuela now, what with two VWL players, including major leaguer and top VWL hitter Luis Valbuena, being murdered while driving back to their home city after a road trip this season, it’s time to go to Taiwan.  He’s enough of a star in Venezuela, they’ll let him start next year’s VWL season late.

Finally, the KBO jettisoned a lot of older but still effective foreign KBO veterans this off-season.  Dustin Nippert (38) rumoredly advised CPBL teams that he’d sign for $50,000 a month, although that’s a non-starter if typical CPBL salaries for first-year foreigners range from $15K to $18K a month.  $50,000 for three months?  Sign ‘im!

So which former KBOer would sign a $75,000 for three month contract?  Maybe Eric Hacker (36) who has previously been rumored as a CPBL prospect.  I see Dominican Henry Sosa (33) doing the Mexican League/DWL combo in 2019, hoping to catch on with an NPB team.

Because of his age, Taiwan’s Wang Wei-Chung (27) is more likely to pitch in AAA or NPB in 2019 than the CPBL.  David Hale (31) and Pat Dean (30) seem like better possibilities for the CPBL.

What Did Kenta Maeda Earn in 2018?

January 1, 2019

By my calculation, Kenta Maeda earned $6.275 million in 2018 on his incentive-heavy contract with the Dodgers.  This includes a pro-rated portion of his $1 million signing bonus, but does not include the post-season money Maeda earned.

The $6.275M amount is $1.75M less than Maeda earned in 2017 and $5.75M less than he earned in 2016.  Meanwhile, fangraphs says his performance had a value of $20.7M in 2018, compared to only $16.0M in 2017 but $26.4M in his 2016 MLB rookie campaign.

With the Dodgers’ decision to trade Alex Wood, it is likely that Maeda will begin the 2019 season in the Dodgers’ starting rotation.  However, because the contract did not take into account the reasonably foreseeable likelihood that Maeda might well end up pitching largely out of the bullpen in MLB, there are no provisions for performance bonuses based on appearances or games finished.  This may become an issue, if Maeda continues to be used a spot starter and becomes increasingly resentful that his compensation does not reflect his actual contributions on the mound.

The fact that Maeda earned World Series money each of the last two seasons and play-off money each of the last three seasons has probably taken much of the sting out of a contract that has proven to be much too favorable to the Dodgers.  Also, Maeda has made significantly more money the last three seasons in MLB than he would have made in NPB, at least excluding endorsement deals, which are much more lucrative for Japanese baseball stars than for MLB stars in America.  I don’t know how pitching in MLB affects Maeda’s endorsement income in Japan  — it may well have no effect at all, because everyone in Japan knows that he was a big enough star to make a successful transition to MLB.

Seattle Mariners Sign Yusei Kikuchi to a Wonderfully Complicated Contract

January 1, 2019

The Mariners signed Yusei Kikuchi to a long-term contract that could be as short as three seasons or as long as seven.  The contract will pay Kikuchi $43 million for the first three seasons.  After that, the Mariners can exercise an option to renew Kikuchi for another four seasons at $66 million.  If the M’s decline to exercise their four year option, Kikuchi has a player option for a fourth season only at $13M.

The nature of the contract explains why the Mariners made this deal during an off-season when they are otherwise gutting their roster as part of a get-as-bad-as-you-can rebuild.  The odds that the M’s will compete in the first three seasons of Kikuchi’s deal are slim, but if he succeeds in the major leagues, the Mariners can renew him for the four seasons when the team might reasonably be competitive again.

The Mariners have had a long history of success in signing Japanese players, and Japanese players like signing to play in Seattle.  This fact probably explains why Kikuchi elected to sign with a rebuilding team, although it’s also likely that the $56M guarantee he received was the best offer he received by a healthy margin.

Kikuchi has the stuff and the talent to be a successful MLB starter, although there are some questions about his ability to stay healthy.  This will particularly be an issue, as it is for all NPB starters who join MLB, as he tries to adjust to pitching every fifth day instead of once a week.

Recent contracts for NPB pitchers really seem to be a laboratory for just how creatively their signing MLB teams can get in crafting a contract that is both acceptable to the player and also creates the most potential value at the least amount of risk for the team.  Takahiro Norimoto is the next NPB ace likely to join MLB, possibly as soon as next off-season.  He’s a small right-hander who may well receive a heavily incentive laden contract like the one the Dodgers signed Kenta Maeda to a few off-seasons ago.  At any rate, it will be interesting to see how Norimoto’s contract is structured when and if it happens.

The Big Dodgers-Reds Trade

December 23, 2018

In a move apparently designed to open up payroll space for the Los Angeles Dodgers to make a run at Bryce Harper, the Bums sent Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and $7 million to the Cincinnati Reds for Homer Bailey and two prospects, Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs.  Although Homer Bailey is still owed $28 million, including a $5M buyout for 2020, and will reportedly be released in due course, the Dodgers benefit in terms of the salary cap by moving the $18M+ they owe to Matt Kemp, plus the expected substantial arbitration deals Puig and Wood will be earning.

Coming off a 67-95 season, getting one year each of Kemp, Puig and Wood for prospects seems like a strange decision of the Redlegs to make.  I guess they felt they just couldn’t pass up this much talent at such a relatively low price.  I could see the trio making the Reds enough better to finish above .500 in 2019, but they don’t seem like nearly enough to make the team a 90-game winner and a playoff contender.  Not having even been a .500 team since 2013, maybe management feels that a winning team of any kind would be enough for the local fan base.

Gray was the 72nd player selected in last year’s draft, and he’s a long way from the majors — plenty of time for him to blow out his arm.  Downs, though was the 32nd overall pick in the 2017 draft, and he played really well in the full season Class A Midwest League in 2018, slashing .257/.351/.402 and stealing 37 bases on 47 attempts, for a 19 year old.  The Reds could certainly miss giving up six years of Downs major league career a few years from now.

I can’t imagine that any of Kemp, Puig or Wood is particularly happy about being exiled to the Queen City.  At least for Kemp and Puig, Cinci has always been a good place for sluggers.  Puig will benefit mightily by a big year going into his free agent season, while Kemp has already received his big free agent contract and would likely prefer playing for a contender in a city of his choice.  Of course, a big season in Cinci and he’ll have the ability next season to choose a situation more to his liking as he winds down his career.

San Francisco Giants Sign Switch-Pitcher Pat Venditte

December 21, 2018

The Giants signed Pat Venditte today to a major league contract for $585,000, just a shade over the major league minimum.  It’s not a terrible move, in that Venditte pitched very well at AAA in 2018 and was effective in 15 relief appearances for the Dodgers, and the Giants aren’t laying out much of a commitment to Venditte.  He’s also the kind of player I like to see catch a break.

What is strange about this move is that the Giants have an extremely similar and much younger player already in Tyler Rogers.  The Giants don’t think Rogers is a prospect — they didn’t protect him in the Rule 5 draft following seasons in which he had 2.37 and 2.13 ERAs at AAA Sacramento.  No else in major league baseball thinks he’s much of a prospect either — nobody selected him in either of the last two Rule 5 drafts.

Tyler is in the final year of his initial seven-year minor league contract, so if he pitches well at AAA for the third year in a row and the Giants still don’t promote him, I would think that he’d receive a better minor league offer from one of the other 29 major league teams.  Or he could sign cheap to pitch in Japan’s NPB.

The one thing that really kills Rogers’ future major league chances is that his history is that he needs time to adjust each time he tries a new league.  His first two trials at AA and AAA were unsuccessful, and he pitched poorly in the Arizona Fall League and the Dominican Winter League following the 2016 and 2017 summer seasons.  I suspect that the expectation that he won’t be a good major league pitcher for his first 15 or 20 appearances no matter how well he pitches at AAA is a major factor for why the Giants didn’t give him a 40-man roster spot and a September call up last summer.

Venditte is really a left-handed pitcher, at least in terms of getting major league hitters out, so he has greater value as a left-handed short man, than Rogers does.  However, Rogers has been exceptionally good at preventing the home run ball in the minors.  If he can just get some major league experience to learn the hitters, I still think there is a real chance that Rogers could be a valuable middle reliever who could eat up 70 or 80 major league innings a year.