Archive for the ‘Miami Marlins’ category

Lop-Sided Wins

April 8, 2018

As I write this the Phillies are beating up on the Marlins 20-1 in the late innings.  The game is being played in Philadelphia, and when I saw the box score, I was reminded of the quote attributed to famous Yankees’ owner and beer baron Col. Ruppert, who said that his favorite day at the ballpark was when the Yankees scored 10 runs in the first inning “and then slowly pulled away.”  Other internet sources state that Ruppert said either 8 runs or 5 runs in the first inning, but I first heard it as 10 runs and my own personal preference is for the 10 runs.

I’m sure any of you who are long-time baseball fans rooting for a specific team have attended at least a couple of total blow-outs by the home nine, and I, for one, always found these games extremely enjoyable.  There’s nothing like seeing all of your home-town heroes pound out one hit after another to the point of complete massacre. The high-drama games are great, but only if your team wins at the end.

It’s also fun when your pitcher is pitching well in these games.  He’s full of confidence, because, lord knows, he won’t give up ten runs, so the moundsman, if he’s worth his salt, pounds the zone and challenges the losers to hit it.  Even if they do, it’s always right at a fielder in these games.  That keeps the game moving along, even while the home team is busy running around the bases in their half of each inning.

As a Giants fan entering his 41st season of active fandom (I attended a game or two in 1977 and rooted for the Giants, because at that age I couldn’t understand why anyone wouldn’t root for the home team, but I didn’t really become a serious fan until 1978, when a Jack ClarkVida BlueBob Knepper team held first place into August), I have come to learn that 16-3 victories are typically followed by 3-2 losses.

For what it’s worth, two teams have scored ten runs in the first inning and gone on to lose the game.  On June 8, 1989, the Pirates put up ten runs in the first inning, but the Phillies put up crooked numbers in the bottom half of the first and four subsequent innings and won 15-11.  On August 23, 2006, the Royals scored 10 runs in the bottom of the first to go up 10-1, but the Indians scored in six of the following nine innings to pull out a 15-13 win.  I don’t think it’s happened again since 2006, but I didn’t look very hard.

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San Diego Padres Reportedly Reach Agreement with Eric Hosmer for $144 Million

February 18, 2018

The San Diego Padres have reportedly reached a deal with Eric Hosmer that will give him $144 million over eight seasons with an opt-out after year five.  The deal is front-loaded, paying Hosmer a $5 million signing bonus and $20 million a year for the first five years, but only $13 million a year for the final three.

The deal is two years and $12 million guaranteed more than mlbtraderumors.com predicted for Hosmer, and in my mind it tends to support management’s claims that the slow free agency period this year has more to do with advanced analytics than collusion.  Hosmer is younger than most of this off-season’s free agents and his big contract suggests that teams are just a lot more leery of over-30 free agents who are likely entering the down-phase of their careers right quick.

The biggest winners of the Hosmer, even more than Hosmer himself, are next year’s young free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  They will be two years younger than Hosmer is now, and they’re better players.  If Harper and Machado have typically strong seasons in 2018, I would expect both to beat the $325 million deal that Giancarlo Stanton received from the Marlins three off-seasons ago.

Even with Hosmer’s apparent signing, six of mlbtraderumors’ top ten free agents remain on the board.  Hosmer had the Padres and the Royals bidding against each other for his services.  Now that Hosmer has signed with San Diego, the Royals may decide they need to bring back Mike Moustakas to prevent their fans from revolting.  However, there hasn’t been much chatter about Moustakas or the four remaining top pitchers, and one team obviously in the market for pitching, the Minnesota Twins, just traded not a whole lot for Jake Odorizzi in what appears to be a straight salary dump by the Rays.

With Yu Darvish signing for much less than expected, it looks like Jake Arrieta is going to have to come to terms with the fact that no team is likely to give him a $100 million offer.  My guess is that Arrieta will have to accept a three year offer for a $80 million guarantee with a team option for fourth season.  As for Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, teams will probably wait to see which of the two is the first to crack and accept what interested teams are willing to pay him.

The Best Management Reason I’ve Heard in a Long Time

February 6, 2018

“When you’re talking about free agency you’re talking about aging players and the trend of overpaying a player’s aging curves has come to an end across baseball.”

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins

This is the lead paragraph of this recent fangraphs post.  It pretty much explains the owners’ legitimate reason for not being as willing to pay for free agents this off-season.

When the free agency regime started in 1976, Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) Executive Director Marvin Miller correctly understood that by meeting the owners’ wish to hold onto the players’ for six full seasons, there would be more demand for a more limited number of free agents.  The whole salary structure from at least the turn of the 2oth century was geared toward playing veteran stars more even if they weren’t as good as they once were, so long as they were still major league caliber starters.

Owners were willing to pay more for veteran stars because of their leadership and a salary structure that favored payment for past performance rather than future anticipated performance.  GM Atkins’ comment says that teams have figured out they need to pay only for what they now calculate to be the likeliest future value.

Other factors come in like whether a team thinks it can realistically make the post-season, and franchise players’ value to their individual franchises.  However, owners have finally figured out that most free agents (i.e., those over 30) are on the down sides of their careers.

The tables have turned.  The six-year service requirement for free agency helped the players, who had already bargained for salary arbitration in 1973, much more than the owners realized.  Now, the six year requirement means that most players are “old” once they reach free agency.

It will be hard for MLBPA to negotiate a change to the service time requirement now.  It’s hard to change a 40-year old rule that has been there from the beginning.  All in all, the players have only benefited by the eventual trade-off, because the system brought player salaries where they are today.

As the fangraphs post contends, free agents like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, who will still be entering their prime seasons at the time of their free agencies next off-season, should still receive record-setting contracts.  I’ve believed at least since the late 1990’s that the very best free agents were typically the best bets to be worth the amounts of their contracts, particularly as salaries only got bigger over the length of every three-or-more year free agent contract.  And as has been reported, many teams may be marshaling their economic forces this off-season to bid on next year’s free agents.

The things for players to bargain for now, if the six-year service time limit can’t be bargained away, are fewer salary cap penalties and greater requirements teams spend a certain minimum on salaries to avoid having their revenue sharing allotments reduced.  The Brewers are just about the only small market team spending this off-season to make it to the post-season, while teams like the Pirates and Marlins are engaged in brutal salary purges as they commit to “rebuilding.”

Even as a guy who typically sides with the workers, the MLBPA’s members are doing pretty well now, and it isn’t exactly heart-breaking that free agent contract totals are probably going down this year.  The players still have salary arbitration, which also shouldn’t be adversely impacted by the owners’ new brainstorm.

Of course, all of this could still be wrong.  As we get down to the last days before the start of Spring Training, teams could crack and decide they have to do more to fill their rosters with good players.  It just seems like the owners now have a really good reason not to do so.

Has the Dam Broken?

January 26, 2018

The Milwaukee Brewers are reported to have signed Lorenzo Cain for five years at a total of $80 million.  It’s far and away the biggest signing of the post-season so far and leads one to wonder if the ducks will all start falling in a row now.  If nothing else, it proves at least one team was willing to provide a fifth season for a free agent entering his age 32 season.

The Brewers also traded four prospects for Christian Yelich today, as the Marlins continue their fire sale, which made the later announced signing of Cain quite a surprise because the Brewers now have four outfield starters.  My guess is that they trade away Domingo Santana and his four remaining years of control for a front line starting pitcher with at least two years of control left.

Domingo Santana is born to play left field, but the Brewers already have Ryan Braun and his contract no one wants there.  The Brewers’ pitching would improve significantly just by replacing Santana in right field with Yelich and Keon Broxton in center field with Cain.

Now that the Brewers have spent big money on Cain, it’s much harder to see them spending the money on any of the top four remaining starters, so another trade for pitching seems highly indicated.  If nothing else, it’s good to see the Brewers making an effort to compete for the post-season.

The rumors of offers are flying thick around Yu Darvish, and if he signs by the end of January, I think the remaining starters will sign quickly.  The rumors are building around Eric Hosmer too, although news about interest in Mike Moustakas has been muted.  Still, someone is going to sign a 3Bman coming off a 38 home run season.

MLB Teams Want Shorter Free Agent Contracts

January 18, 2018

There has been a lot of talk this off-season about the fact that only two of the top dozen free agents has yet signed a contract. mlbtraderumors.com weighed in again on this issue today.

The one thing that seems obvious to me looking at the players who have signed free agent contracts this off-season so far is that teams want shorter contract lengths (i.e., no more than three years) and will pay more per year to get them.

No team has yet signed a player to more than three years.  However, the players who have agreed to three year deals have done pretty well, at least compared to mlbtraderumors’ predictions for its top 50 free agents, which experience has shown deserve a lot of weight.  mlbtraderumors has a formula it uses and tweaks every off-season based on the previous off-season’s signing results, and their predictions have proven to be well better than educated guesses.

Carlos Santana’s three-year $60 million deal is the biggest free agent signing so far.  mlbtraderumors correctly predicted the three-year term, but underestimated the payout by $5 million per year.  Tyler Chatwood (predicted 3 years $20M; actually received 3 years $38M). Jake McGee (3/$18M; 3/$27M), Mike Minor (4/$28M; 3/$28M), Bryan Shaw (3/$21M; 3/$27M), Tommy Hunter (2/$12M; 2/$18M), Pat Neshek (2/$12M; 2/16.25M), Michael Pineda (2/$6M; 2/$10M) and Miles Mikolas (2/$10M; 2/$15.5M) all did significantly better on two and three year deals than predicted.

Meanwhile, only Addison Reed (4/$36M; 2/$16.75M), CC Sabathia (2/$24M; 1/$10M), Yonder Alonzo (2/$22M; 2/$16M), Brandon Kintzler (2/$14M; 1/$5M) and Howie Kendrick (2/$12M; 2/$7M) have done significantly worse than predicted.  Zack Cozart (3/$42M; 3/$38M), Jay Bruce (3/$39M; 3/$39M), Juan Nicasio (2/$21M; 2/$17M), Jhoulys Chacin (2/$14M; 2/$15.5M), Welington Castillo (2/$14M; 2/$15M), Anthony Swarzak (2/$14M; 2/$14M) and Steve Cishek (2/$14M; 2/$13M) got right around what was predicted.

Finally, both Wade Davis (4/$60M; 3/$52M) and Brandon Morrow (3/$24M; 2/$21m) got one fewer year than predicted, but at a much higher annual rate, so much higher, in fact, that one has to think there wasn’t much incentive to hold out for the extra year.  I think these signings make it likely that each of Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will be forced to accept three year offers, although probably for only $3M to $6M less than mlbtraderumors predicted over four seasons.

I suspect that advanced analytics have suggested to teams something they already knew: long-term free agents contract can be a long-term albatross around a team’s neck is veteran player gets hurt or old fast.  Better to pay more per season for fewer seasons so the burden of a bad contract doesn’t hurt the team for as many seasons.

I could see Yu Darvish being forced to accept a five-year deal in the $140M to $150M range, although as the No. 1 starter available this off-season, I think someone will eventually give him a sixth season.  The reported rumors sound as if both Kansas City and San Diego have made Eric Hosmer offers close to the six years and $132M that mlbtraderumors predicted.

The market for J.D. Martinez does not seem to be developing as predicted, but the four years at $100M predicted for Jake Arrieta seems likely to be met since he is the second best free agent starter available.  Scott Boras is representing a number of top free agents this year, and his asks have been pie-in-the-sky, as they always are.  I don’t believe the reports that any free agent will wait until after the 2018 regular season starts to sign, because that is an absolute value killer for a free agent if ever there was one.

It’s likely that a majority of the mid-range free agents (Nos. 20-50) who haven’t yet signed won’t do as well as the predictions, however, based on the fact that many teams have now filled their needs by the free agent players signed to date.

 

The Ten Best Colombian Players in MLB History

December 27, 2017

I enjoyed writing my recent post on The Ten Best Nicaraguan Players in MLB History, so I though it might be a good idea to write similar posts on the best players from other countries, particularly those that are not well known for generating major league players.  Without much further ado, below is a list of of the ten best players from Colombia, a country with a richer baseball history than many people realize.

Baseball has long been popular in Colombia, but mostly in the cities along the Caribbean coast.  The first Latin American player in MLB during the 20th was in fact born in Colombia, Luis “Lou” Castro, who played 42 games as a middle infielder for the Philadelphia Athletics in 1902.  He replaced HOFer Napoleon “Nap” LaJoie, when a Pennsylvania Court ruled that LaJoie couldn’t play for Philadelphia after jumping his contract with the National League’s Philadelphia Phillies to play in the new American League in 1901.  LaJoie was released from his contract with the Athletics and promptly signed with the Cleveland Broncos, who later came to be known as the Indians.

Like many Latino baseball players of baseball’s early days, Castro came from a wealthy background. He came to New York City at the age of 8 to get educated and to make the kinds of contacts that could be expected to benefit him later in life.  The story is similar for Estaban “Steve” Bellan, a Cuban who was sent to NYC for an education, who became the first Latino major leaguer playing parts of three seasons in the old National Association, baseball’s first all professional league, before returning to Cuba and becoming instrumental in the eventual establishment as Cuba’s most popular sport.  Unlike Bellan, Castro spent the rest of his life living in the United States.

1 & 2.  Edgar Rentaria (1996-2011) & Orlando Cabrera (1997-2011).  Two shortstops who played at the same time, it’s hard to talk about one without mentioning the other, because of their Colombian heritage and their similar career stats.  Rentaria’s career batting numbers are a little better, and he is likely the better player solely based on the fact that he got on base a lot more than Cabrera (.343 OBP compared to .317).  The raw defensive numbers suggest that Cabrera was a slightly better fielder.

3. & 4.  Jose Quintana (2012-2017) & Julio Teheran (2011-2017).  Two pitchers also linked by heritage, career periods and stats: Quintana has a career record of 57-57 with a 3.53 ERA, while Teheran is 58-53 with 3.59 ERA.  Fangraphs, whoever, says that Quintana’s career has been more than twice as valuable ($181 million to $85 million) than Teheran.

5.  Ernesto Frieri (2009-2017).  The all-time saves leader among Colombian born major leaguers with 73.

6.  Jolbert Cabrera (1998-2008).  Orlando Cabrera’s older brother, Jolbert wasn’t nearly as good.  Jolbert was a useful jack-of-all-trades guy who played semi-regularly for the Indians in 2001, the Dodgers in 2003 and the Mariners in 2004, as part of an eight year major league career.  He also played a couple of seasons in Japan’s NPB and finished his summer baseball career in Mexico at the age of 39.

7. & 8.  Donovan Solano (2012-2016) & Jackie Gutierrez (1983-1988).  A couple of light-hitting middle infielders, Solano played semi-regularly for the Marlins mostly at 2B from 2012 through 2014, while Gutierrez was the starting shortstop for the 1984 Boston Red Sox.  Solano is still playing at AAA, so he still has a chance to move up the list.  Gutierrez’s father represented Colombia in the 1936 Olympics as a sprinter and javelin thrower.

9.  Jorge Alfaro (2016-2017).  Alfaro is a 24 year old catcher/1Bman for the Phillies who hasn’t done a whole lot in MLB so far, except show a lot of promise with his bat.

10 (tied).  Orlando Ramirez (1974-1979) & Giovanny Urshala (2015-2017).  Another light-hitting middle infielder, Ramirez was the first Colombian player of the post-World War II era.  However, he never hit at the major league level and finished his five year major league career with only 53 hits.  Ramirez is also Jackie Gutierrez’ brother in law.

Urshala is a 3Bman who hasn’t hit much in two seasons with the Indians.  He’s young enough, though, that he still has a chance to knock Orlando Ramirez out of the top ten.

At least 20 Colombian-born players have played in MLB.  They have disproportionately been middle infielders.

New York Yankees to Acquire Giancarlo Stanton

December 9, 2017

And the rich get richer still.  In what amounts to mostly a salary dump, the Yankees get Giancarlo Stanton for Starlin Castro and two prospects, neither with an elite pedigree and both a long way from the majors.  There is already talk that the Marlins may flip Castro to the Mets before the off-season is over.  The Yankees will be paying all of Stanton’s contract through 2020, and the Marlins will send the Yankees $30 million if Stanton does not opt out of his contract after the 2020 season.

Suddenly, the Yankees look like they’ll be the team to beat in the AL East in 2018 if they can find any pitching whatsoever.  The current Yankees’ management’s concerns about staying under the salary cap never made a lot of sense to me, since the potential revenue streams and franchise value for a New York City based-team are so high.

George Steinbrenner didn’t pay all the money he paid for decades to free agents because he was a generous man or particularly concerned that his players lived well.  It was all about what a team stocked with the best players would be worth to him.

The 2018 Yankees will surely have another Murderers’ Row, even with Aaron Judge and possibly Gary Sanchez due for sophomore slumps.  American League pitchers are going to hate traveling to New York the same way National League pitchers hate going to Colorado.