Archive for the ‘San Diego Padres’ category

Ichiro Is Done

May 4, 2018

Ichiro retired into the Mariners’ front office where he will presumably work to bring more elite Japanese players to Seattle.  He finishes at age 44 with 3,089 hits, after all those hits in Japan.

Suzuki may the last of the hitters in the Paul Waner, Rod Carew, Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn line, the pure hitters.  Power’s too important in today’s game, perhaps unless Japan can produce another Ichiro, or at least another better than Nori Aoki. the poor man’s Ichiro.

If it’s a style that all but gone, Ichiro brought a talent set to MLB that will be missed if we don’t soon see it again.

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Arenado Charges Perdomo

April 12, 2018

Nolan Arenado charged Luis Perdomo today after Luis threw a fastball behind Nolan’s back.  Then, it wasn’t just young men enjoying a game of baseball anymore.

I don’t know if I’ve gotten meaner as I get older, I have no problem with Arenado going after Perdomo.  Perhaps I always felt this way.  I still think Arenado should get the standard suspension, but Perdomo has to know there are consequences for throwing a high pitch Arenado had to think was intended to hit him.

Perdomo wimpily threw his mitt and was able to mostly toreador Arenado’s first assault.  Arenado went after Perdomo again and caught him, but only just as the scrum collapsed upon them.  I hope Perdomo gets at least a five-game suspension, for whatever Arenado ends up getting.

A not-too-long suspension and Arenado and the Rockies may have no regrets.  Arenado has just sent a message throughout MLB that he won’t tolerate pitches like that above the waste.

With Arenado as the team’s best player, if I were a Rockies fan, I’d be glad Arenado went after him.  It might fire up the team, and Arenado needs to protect himself.

That reminds me of a Giants’ story.  Mike Krukow was one of the team’s enforcers when it came to not letting the other team get away with anything.  In this game, I think it was this one,  Krukow plunked Braves pitcher Kevin Coffman after the young and wild Coffman threw too many pitches at or behind Giants’ hitters.

Coffman wasn’t trying to hit the batters, and he didn’t actually any of them, his pitches looked like attempted curveballs that didn’t break.  It was probably Duane Kuiper, who was already doing TV announcing in 1988, who suggested that Krukow’s pitch, which hit Coffman squarely in the center of the back and looked like it hurt based on location and the way Coffman winced even though it didn’t look like Krukow threw it as hard as he could, was intended as a message that the young Braves pitcher find his command around the Giants hitters.

It made sense to me at the time.  However, if I have the right game, Coffman went on to score in a game the Giants ended up losing 5-4.

I also remember Krukow getting hurt later against the Cardinals when leading the charge in one of these situations, inside the eye of the scrum as I recall it.  It might have been a leg injury, like a thigh bruise, but I seem to remember him losing time because of the injury.  I can’t find the game, so maybe I’m mis-remembering it.

A lot less entertaining to watch than the Arenado Show was Jordan Zimmerman getting hit in the face with a line-drive off that bat of Jason Kipnes.  It was scorched, and Zimmerman couldn’t get up his glove hand in time.  Zimmerman was down for awhile but it looks like he escaped major injury.  He reportedly has a bruised, not broken, jaw, and passed the concussion protocol tests.

It serves to remind you that baseball players do risk something when they go out on the field.  That’s part of the reason they get the big money.

Baltimore Orioles to Sign Alex Cobb for a Reported $57 Million

March 21, 2018

In a deal that I find shocking given everything that came before in this off-season, the Orioles signed Alex Cobb at the last minute for four years at a total guarantee of $57M.  There is apparently a lot of deferred money in the contract, but even so it’s a lot of money for a lot of years this late into Spring Training.

The signing invites the question if Baltimore was willing to shell out this much, why did it take so long to get this deal done?  Wouldn’t Cobb have accepted a $57M guarantee on March 1st or February 1st or January 1st this off-season once the obvious down market trend had been set?  Did Baltimore think that Cobb’s price was going to come down eventually and finally just caved in completely when it became apparent that Cobb would not sign unless he got top dollar and the season was about to start with Baltimore still in need of pitching?

For the life of me, I can’t imagine what the circumstances could have been that caused a deal this big to happen this soon before the real 2018 games start.  Maybe the O’s just decided at the last minute that with many of their best players becoming free agents next off-season, they’d have to make one last push for the post-season in 2018.  Still, they’re going to have a hard time keeping up with the Yankees and Red Sox, Alex Cobb or no.

I was thinking that at this point, Cobb was holding out for two years and $25M.  He even beat the four years and $48M that mlbtraderumors.com predicted.  My goodness!

As mlb trade rumors points out, the O’s back out of more deals at the last minute than most teams if they see anything questionable in the player’s pre-signing physical exam.  Cobb better hopes he looks good to the doctors in that exam.

Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and apparently now Alex Cobb were big free agent winners this off-season.  There weren’t many others.  At least it gives next off-season’s class of free agents hope that a few more of them will pull rabbits out of their free agent hats even if the market has changed for the worse overall.

Minnesota Twins Sign Logan Morrison Cheap

February 26, 2018

The Twins have reportedly reached a deal for Logan Morrison that guarantees him $6.5 million with a possibility of $16.5 million over two seasons if Morrison plays as well in 2018 and 2019 as he did in 2017.  That is a real bargain, at least compared to the three years at $36 million guarantee mlbtraderumors.com predicted.

Logan Morrison is expected to mainly DH for the Twins, since Joe Mauer, the better fielder, will be playing almost every game in the field he’s healthy enough to do so.  Looking at their roster, it’s doesn’t look like the Twins really needed Morrison, but at this price, why not?

Paid as a well-paid veteran platoon player, Morrison surely makes the Twins stronger against right-handed pitching this year.  If Morrison plays well and the Twins go deep in the post-season, the Twins will likely execute his option even if he doesn’t get to the 600 plate appearances he needs for the second year at $8 million guaranteed plus escalator clauses and plate appearance bonuses that could bring the second year amount up to $10 million.  The Twins are loyal by MLB standards to players who have played well for them and helped them win, particularly if they are of Morrison’s complexion.

I’m surprised the Royals didn’t sign Morrison.  He was born in Kansas City, although his family then traveled around a lot, and the Royals were certainly in need of a 1Bman once Eric Hosmer committed to the Padres.

Apparently, the Royals are so committed to “rebuilding” that both Frank Schwindel and Ryan O’Hearn have serious shots at making the major league club out of Spring Training.  It hadn’t even registered until now that the Royals had traded Brandon Moss and $4 million of his 2018 salary to the A’s along with LHP Ryan Buchter for RHPs Jesse Hahn and Heath Fillmyer.

If the Royals don’t surprise everyone and sign one of the remaining top free agents, it’s pretty clear that going into the 2018 season, they are determined to be as bad as possible as fast as possible, so that they can start getting top draft picks again.  That’s basically the formula that got them all the top draft picks that were the core of the 2015 World Series Champs.

Boston Red Sox Reportedly Reach Agreement with J.D. Martinez

February 20, 2018

The Boston Red Sox have reportedly reached an agreement with J.D. Martinez on a five year contract that guarantees Martinez $110 million and contains opt-outs after both years two and three of the deal.  The deal is front-loaded with Martinez earning $50 million through the first two seasons and $72 million through the first three seasons but only $38 million over the last two seasons.

Martinez is guaranteed a full $40 million less than mlbtraderumors.com predicted, but he gets the two opt-outs.  The effect of the deal is that it is much more future performance driven that the free agent contracts of old, as Martinez will almost certainly opt out if he has seasons in either 2019 or 2020 in which he plays in 150 game and has an OPS at the average of his last four seasons (2014-2017).

What I find interesting about this contract and to a lesser degree with Eric Hosmer‘s recently reported contract with the Padres is the degree to which the contract is front loaded.  In years past, teams always tried to push the highest paid seasons toward the end of the contract term in order to take advantage of the time value of money.  When added to the 100 year old tradition of paying superstars more as they got older, even as their performances began to decline, the time value of money was a powerful incentive for teams to back-load contracts.

What is clearly going on is that teams no longer want albatross contracts, where the teams are paying massive amounts of money for poor performance later in the contract period.  In particular, wealthy teams like the Red Sox expect to contend every year and certainly do not intend five year rebuilding periods that small market teams resign themselves to.

Teams are now obviously more concerned with paying top dollar for the years they reasonably anticipate getting top performance and paying less as the player gets older.  Teams are realizing that no matter how wealthy or poor they are, they have a certain budget for player salaries each season which increases over time at a fairly predictable rate in line with predicted future revenue increases.  If you push back free agent contract compensation to the later years, those are years in which the team is predictably resigning itself to mediocrity or worse.  Added to this are the incentives in recent collective bargaining agreements which punish teams for going over an imposed salary cap.

In the late 1980’s Bill James wrote an article about how the New York Yankees under George Steinbrenner were on what amounted to a second-place treadmill.  At that time the Yankees were building their teams largely around elite free agents, who were really good only for a year or two and then became expensive mediocrities that prevented even baseball’s richest team from building a truly great ball club.  It’s taken awhile for teams to learn the point that James was making all those years ago, but it now seems the teams have learned it.

As time passes, we will see more contracts which reject the old rules of free agent contracts.  I’m certain of this, because we’ve seen over the years the way in which free agent contracts have evolved, for example using team options, player options and opt-out clauses.

Also, I took a sports law class in law school in which the students negotiated various player contracts.  Coming into the practice negotiations with fewer preconceptions about what the contract should look like and negotiating only on the basis of the factual situations involving the player and the team, we came up with some pretty wild contracts.

In representing an imaginary football player in negotiations with an imaginary team that was hoping to win it all the next season and had the money to spend now, I negotiated a two year deal in which the player received 85 or 90% of the contract amount in the first season with most of the 85 or 90% in the form of a signing bonus, so that the money would already be paid out to the player even if he got hurt as soon as he started play for his new imaginary team, since NFL contracts are typically not guaranteed due to the frequency of serious injuries in football.  Also, I wasn’t taking into account taxation or the fact that young athletes tend to spend money as they make it and won’t necessarily be prepared to save enough in year one to handle the steep drop in compensation in year two.

In the real world, past practice tends to shape contracts in the short term, not to mention the fact that the parties involved in the negotiations are better aware of all the real world variables.  Over time, however, real world contracts will ultimately get to roughly the same place as law school experiments if the factual situations are roughly the same (and taking into account all the real world variables).

Owners would love to get back to the world before free agency, not only when players could not access a free market of teams competing for their services, but also when a player’s compensation was determined a year at a time and was thus largely linked to the immediately preceding year’s performance and thus anticipated next season performance, and could be quickly reduced if the player ultimately had a bad season the next year.

Both Martinez’ contract with the Red Sox and Yu Darvish‘s recent contract with the Cubs require the players to perform at an extremely high level in the early years of their respective deals to fully reap the potential benefits of the contract.  That is well to the advantage of their signing teams, and this year the teams have been able to impose these terms on these players.  We’ll see what happens next off-season, but I think we’ll be seeing more of the same.

 

San Diego Padres Reportedly Reach Agreement with Eric Hosmer for $144 Million

February 18, 2018

The San Diego Padres have reportedly reached a deal with Eric Hosmer that will give him $144 million over eight seasons with an opt-out after year five.  The deal is front-loaded, paying Hosmer a $5 million signing bonus and $20 million a year for the first five years, but only $13 million a year for the final three.

The deal is two years and $12 million guaranteed more than mlbtraderumors.com predicted for Hosmer, and in my mind it tends to support management’s claims that the slow free agency period this year has more to do with advanced analytics than collusion.  Hosmer is younger than most of this off-season’s free agents and his big contract suggests that teams are just a lot more leery of over-30 free agents who are likely entering the down-phase of their careers right quick.

The biggest winners of the Hosmer, even more than Hosmer himself, are next year’s young free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  They will be two years younger than Hosmer is now, and they’re better players.  If Harper and Machado have typically strong seasons in 2018, I would expect both to beat the $325 million deal that Giancarlo Stanton received from the Marlins three off-seasons ago.

Even with Hosmer’s apparent signing, six of mlbtraderumors’ top ten free agents remain on the board.  Hosmer had the Padres and the Royals bidding against each other for his services.  Now that Hosmer has signed with San Diego, the Royals may decide they need to bring back Mike Moustakas to prevent their fans from revolting.  However, there hasn’t been much chatter about Moustakas or the four remaining top pitchers, and one team obviously in the market for pitching, the Minnesota Twins, just traded not a whole lot for Jake Odorizzi in what appears to be a straight salary dump by the Rays.

With Yu Darvish signing for much less than expected, it looks like Jake Arrieta is going to have to come to terms with the fact that no team is likely to give him a $100 million offer.  My guess is that Arrieta will have to accept a three year offer for a $80 million guarantee with a team option for fourth season.  As for Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, teams will probably wait to see which of the two is the first to crack and accept what interested teams are willing to pay him.

Evidence of Collusion?

February 18, 2018

A lot has been made of the incredibly slow free agent market this off-season and the fact that teams seem less willing to spend on free agents than they were only a few years ago.  The MLBPA and player agents have expressed their concerns that teams are again colluding, and Scott Boras pointed to recent statements by Commissioner Rob Manfred that several free agents had received offers over nine figures, information he would not have unless teams were sharing information about their offers with each other or the Commissioner’s office.

However, Manfred’s statements don’t mean a whole lot, since he can claim media reports as his source of information that several free agents have received offers over $100 million.  Rumors have abounded that all of Yu Darvish (now proven), J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer have received offers above the golden $100 million mark.  In fact, at the start of the off-season, all three were predicted to do well better than a mere $100 million in guaranteed money.  The real dispute is that these players are only getting $100M to $126M guaranteed offers instead of the $140M to $160M guaranteed offers anticipated.

One fact that suggests teams collectively are fighting to keep player salaries down is the 22 salary arbitration cases this off-season that went to decision.  That’s the most salary arbitration cases to go to decision since the 1994 strike, and it beats the previous highs (14 in each of 2001, 2015 and 2017) by more than 50%.

The players went 12-10 in the 22 cases this off-season and went 7-7 last off-season.  Historically, the owners have won 57% of all salary arbitration decisions (319 out of 562) going back to 1974, including the results from the last two off-seasons.  There’s certainly something in both the number of salary arbitration cases going to decision and the outcomes to suggest that for the last two off-seasons at least (while there were 14 salary arbitration decisions in early 2015, the owners won eight of them, and there only four arbitration decisions in 2016) teams are taking a harder line on agreeing to raises for salary arbitration eligible players their teams intend to keep.

Obviously, one can’t make too much out of the salary arbitration results for only two off-seasons.  Each off-season features individual decisions by eligible players and teams in negotiating a salary increase or going to arbitration hearing, and the salary arbitration process is now advanced enough that both sides have fairly good ideas of what are reasonable salary proposals based on precedent and where the arbitrators can accept only one of the two numbers submitted.

At the same time, when taking this year’s exceptionally high number of salary arbitration decisions into account with the obvious drop in interest in and the bidding on free agents this off-season, it does appear that teams are as a group making greater efforts to limit the amount of revenues they have to pay out to players as compensation.  Whether that’s a result of active collusion between the owners, or merely the result of normal market capitalism as effected by better player value analytics and the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, remains to be determined.

For what it’s worth, even though owners have won roughly 57% of all salary arbitration decisions, the players love salary arbitration while the owners hate it.  The reason is that now even the poorest, stingiest, least interested in winning teams have to pay their good salary arbitration eligible players the same amount of money as the wealthiest teams have to pay.  Salary arbitration in conjunction with free agency has caused the enormous increase in player salaries since 1974.

Also, I strongly suspect that free agents have less value today than they did, say ten years ago, is because we have had the longest period without expansion since MLB’s expansion era began in 1961.  When you add in that MLB teams are bringing in more and more foreign talent from more countries, the level of play at the major league level is extremely high and it’s relatively easier to replace or acquire talent outside of free agency.

I contend that the current circumstances are akin to MLB in the 1950’s when there had been no successful MLB expansion since 1901 and black and dark-skinned Latino stars were allowed to play in the white leagues for the first time since the 1880’s.   The addition of only two additional expansion teams would have a big impact on the relative value of free agents, because there would be more demand for the elite players good enough to reach free agency based on six full seasons of major league service.  You would also see more players like Fernando Abad, who just received a non-guaranteed deal from the Phillies despite a 3.30 ERA with the Red Sox last year, get guaranteed major league deals.