Archive for the ‘San Diego Padres’ category

MLB Teams Want Shorter Free Agent Contracts

January 18, 2018

There has been a lot of talk this off-season about the fact that only two of the top dozen free agents has yet signed a contract. mlbtraderumors.com weighed in again on this issue today.

The one thing that seems obvious to me looking at the players who have signed free agent contracts this off-season so far is that teams want shorter contract lengths (i.e., no more than three years) and will pay more per year to get them.

No team has yet signed a player to more than three years.  However, the players who have agreed to three year deals have done pretty well, at least compared to mlbtraderumors’ predictions for its top 50 free agents, which experience has shown deserve a lot of weight.  mlbtraderumors has a formula it uses and tweaks every off-season based on the previous off-season’s signing results, and their predictions have proven to be well better than educated guesses.

Carlos Santana’s three-year $60 million deal is the biggest free agent signing so far.  mlbtraderumors correctly predicted the three-year term, but underestimated the payout by $5 million per year.  Tyler Chatwood (predicted 3 years $20M; actually received 3 years $38M). Jake McGee (3/$18M; 3/$27M), Mike Minor (4/$28M; 3/$28M), Bryan Shaw (3/$21M; 3/$27M), Tommy Hunter (2/$12M; 2/$18M), Pat Neshek (2/$12M; 2/16.25M), Michael Pineda (2/$6M; 2/$10M) and Miles Mikolas (2/$10M; 2/$15.5M) all did significantly better on two and three year deals than predicted.

Meanwhile, only Addison Reed (4/$36M; 2/$16.75M), CC Sabathia (2/$24M; 1/$10M), Yonder Alonzo (2/$22M; 2/$16M), Brandon Kintzler (2/$14M; 1/$5M) and Howie Kendrick (2/$12M; 2/$7M) have done significantly worse than predicted.  Zack Cozart (3/$42M; 3/$38M), Jay Bruce (3/$39M; 3/$39M), Juan Nicasio (2/$21M; 2/$17M), Jhoulys Chacin (2/$14M; 2/$15.5M), Welington Castillo (2/$14M; 2/$15M), Anthony Swarzak (2/$14M; 2/$14M) and Steve Cishek (2/$14M; 2/$13M) got right around what was predicted.

Finally, both Wade Davis (4/$60M; 3/$52M) and Brandon Morrow (3/$24M; 2/$21m) got one fewer year than predicted, but at a much higher annual rate, so much higher, in fact, that one has to think there wasn’t much incentive to hold out for the extra year.  I think these signings make it likely that each of Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will be forced to accept three year offers, although probably for only $3M to $6M less than mlbtraderumors predicted over four seasons.

I suspect that advanced analytics have suggested to teams something they already knew: long-term free agents contract can be a long-term albatross around a team’s neck is veteran player gets hurt or old fast.  Better to pay more per season for fewer seasons so the burden of a bad contract doesn’t hurt the team for as many seasons.

I could see Yu Darvish being forced to accept a five-year deal in the $140M to $150M range, although as the No. 1 starter available this off-season, I think someone will eventually give him a sixth season.  The reported rumors sound as if both Kansas City and San Diego have made Eric Hosmer offers close to the six years and $132M that mlbtraderumors predicted.

The market for J.D. Martinez does not seem to be developing as predicted, but the four years at $100M predicted for Jake Arrieta seems likely to be met since he is the second best free agent starter available.  Scott Boras is representing a number of top free agents this year, and his asks have been pie-in-the-sky, as they always are.  I don’t believe the reports that any free agent will wait until after the 2018 regular season starts to sign, because that is an absolute value killer for a free agent if ever there was one.

It’s likely that a majority of the mid-range free agents (Nos. 20-50) who haven’t yet signed won’t do as well as the predictions, however, based on the fact that many teams have now filled their needs by the free agent players signed to date.

 

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The Ten Best Nicaraguan Players in MLB History

December 25, 2017

I recently had dinner with the Nicaraguan side of my second family.  Not surprisingly, I have been inspired to identify the best ten Nicaraguan Players in MLB history.

1.  Dennis Martinez (1976-1998). He has been the most famous Nicaraguan baseball player for a couple of generations now, so much so he’s mentioned in the 1983 Nick Nolte/Gene Hackman movie Under Fire.  Small wonder — he went 245-193 in his 23 year major league career.

Martinez led the American League in innings pitchedm (292.1) and complete games (18) in 1979 for the World Series losing Baltimore Orioles; led the AL in wins in a four-way tie with 14 in the 1981 Strike season; and led that National League in ERA (2.39), complete games (nine) and shutouts (5) as a 37 year old Montreal Expo in 1991.  He was the first and still the best Nicaraguan player ever to play in MLB.

Here’s an interesting factoid from wikipedia about Martinez: “On September 28, 1995, a wild pitch by Martinez broke the jaw of Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett. This would be Puckett’s last official game of his career, retiring in 1996 due to glaucoma in his right eye, a problem unrelated to Martinez’s pitch.”  Puckett batted right-handed, so the pitch probably hit him in the left-side of the face.

I don’t think of Dennis Martinez as quite being a Hall of Fame pitcher.  However, his 245 career wins are going to look even better to Veteran’s Committee members (or whatever MLB calls them now) as time passes.

2.  Vicente Padilla (1999-2012).  Padilla was a successful right-handed starter who finished his major league career 108-91.  Padilla signed his first contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks a month before his 21st birthday, which is old for a Latin American prospect, after working with Dennis Martinez in Nicaragua to improve his change-up.

I remember Padilla as having a reputation as a bean-ball artist.  The stats bear out my memory.  Padilla led the AL in HBP with 17 in 2006, and he plunked at least 15 in a season three other times.  Padilla is 67th all-time in hitting batters (109), and Dennis Martinez is tied for 50th all-time (122) in many more games and innings pitched.

Pitchers will always doctor baseballs and throw at batters, if they can get an advantage by doing so.  A pitcher coming out of a hard-scrabble place like Nicaragua (only Haiti and Honduras have lower per capita GNP in the Western Hemisphere), you’re going to do what it takes to win ballgames.  By my calculation, Padilla made at least $54 million playing professional baseball around the world, so his pitching style clearly worked for him.

3.  Marvin Benard (1995-2003).  Benard was born in Bluefields, Nicaragua and moved his family to the Los Angeles City of Bell at the age of 12.  He was generally beloved in San Francisco, although he really only had two great major league seasons, his age 27 and 28 seasons.  Then he got old fast.  The Giants signed him to a three-year $11.1 million for the next three years (2001-2003).  Benard was hurt much of 2002, the Giants surely didn’t get their monies’ worth in the final year of the deal.

Marvin’s son Isaac Benard is a 21 year minor leaguer for the Tampa Rays, who didn’t hit great at the Rays’ A- team in 2017, the Hudson Valley Renegades of the New York-Pennsylvania League.

4.  Albert Williams (DeSousa) (1980-1984).  Albert Williams was a top starter on three bad Minnesota Twins’ teams from 1981-1983 and started the Twins’ season opener in 1984.  His career story is especially interesting.

Williams was originally signed by the Pirates’ organization in 1975 and he played two years in the low minors in their system.  However, in 1977, he couldn’t get a visa from the Nicaraguan government to play in the U.S., so he was forced to remain in Nicaragua, where he joined the Sandinistas and fought against the Somoza dictatorship for 16 months.  He then was “smuggled” out of Nicaragua to pitch for the Panama franchise in the Inter-American League in its sole season of 1979.

The Inter-American League had six teams in four countries plus Puerto Rico, but didn’t make it through a full schedule, with teams playing between 72 and 51 games for the season before the league folded.  An interesting idea, but travel expenses must have been great.

Williams then signed with the Twins’ organization.  He also pitched six winters in the Venezuelan Winter League including the 1983 Caribbean Series for the Tiberones de La Guaira.  However, Williams’ didn’t have great stuff, and it looks as if his pitching arm gave out, based on the fact that he last pitched in the MLB system in 1985 at the age of 31 after a rapid descent.

5.  Wilton Lopez (2009-2014).  Like Williams above, Lopez was a good pitcher whose MLB stardom only shown briefly.  The middle four years of his major league career, he was a strong right-handed reliever, who went 16-15 with 11 saves.  He fell apart the next season, and last pitched in the MLB-system in 2015, his age 31 season.

According to recent reports from La Prensa as of late September 2017, reports are that Lopez’s wing has recovered enough from whatever was afflicting it two years ago for him to have signed to play baseball professionally in Nicaragua and play on the Nicaraguan National Team.

6.  Everth Cabrera (2009-2015).  The National League’s leader in stolen bases in 2012 with 44, the lowest total to lead the Senior Circuit since Craig Biggio’s 39 in 1994, Everth Cabrera was a good major league player only two seasons, that year and the next.  Cabrera is probably most famously remembered outside of San Diego for his 50-game suspension arising out of the Biogenesis PED scandal, which came down late in the 2013 season.  He was never the same after that, and his 2017 performance at AAA Syracuse at the age of 30 makes it unlikely he’ll play in the MLB-system in the future.

According to La Prensa, Cabrera is also playing professionally in Nicaragua this Winter and on the National Team.

7.  Erasmo Ramirez (2012 – present).  Now we get into the players who are active in MLB now.  Erasmo Ramirez is a 27 year old sometime starter, sometime reliever, who has a career W-L record of 30-35 with three saves.  Ramirez was an effective No. 3 starter for the 2015 Tampa Rays, going 11-6 with a 3.75 ERA.

Ramirez also pitched well in 11 starts for the Seattle Mariners after being acquired from the Rays near the 2017 trade deadline and is apparently going through the salary arbitration process with the M’s.  mlbtraderumors.com projects him to make $4.7 million in 2018.

8.  Cheslor Cuthbert (2015 – present).   Cheslor Cuthbert is a 3Bman going into his age 25 season.  If Mike Moustakas does not re-sign with the Kansas City Royals, Cuthbert should be first in line to take that job and with it the opportunity to become a major league star.  His defense is not good, but major league adequate.  He hit well as a 23 year old rookie in 2016, but not at all in his 2017 sophomore season.  He’s hit at AAA Omaha and he’s young enough that you have to think the odds are reasonably good if he enters the 2018 season as the Royals’ regular third-sacker.

9.  J.C. Ramirez (2013 – present).  Since the Anaheim Angels selected Ramirez off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds in late June 2016, his performance has been eye-opening, first in relief in 2016 and then as an unexpected starter in 2017.  He went 11-10 last year with a 4.15 ERA over 147.1 IP.  However, he was shut down in late August after experiencing forearm pain, he struck out only 105 batters, and he’ll be 29 in 2018, so there are no guarantees going forward.

10.  David Green (1981-1987).  Green arguably had a better major league career than J.C. Ramirez or Chestlor Cuthbert has had to date, but I’m fairly confident the latter two will finish their major league careers ahead of Green.  Green could hit a little, but in his two seasons as an MLB regular, he walked less than 5% of his plate appearances.  Although he had the arm and speed to play right field and back up in center field, he mostly played 1B in the majors, a defensive position he didn’t hit well enough for.  He was part of the infamous Jack Clark trade in February 1985, which ultimately netted the Giants only Jose Uribe.   That’s definitely going to hurt his all-time rating with this Giants fan.

Green later played for part of a season (1986) in Japan’s NPB, as Vicente Padilla did in 2013.  Green does not appear to have played professionally since his age 30 (but more likely age 31) season in 1991.

Green’s back story is interesting.  His father Edward “Eduardo” Green had been one of the great players in Nicaraguan baseball history.  Eduardo originally though this first some Eduardo Jr. would follow in his footsteps.  However, Jr. didn’t have the talent, while younger son David did.  Eduardo Sr. shifted his attentions to David when the latter was about 15 years old, and was reportedly an abusive instructor.

Green signed a contract with the Milwaukee Brewers in June 1978 for a $20,000 signing bonus. The Brewers scout Julio Blanco Herrera pulled out ten $100 bills from his pocket and paid Green a “down-payment” at a time when due to the Nicaraguan Revolution it was extremely difficult to get cash because the banks and businesses were all closed and food had to be paid for in cash.  Eduardo Sr. died of a series of heart attacks while David was playing in the MLB minors.

On the eve of breaking through to the majors, Green was regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball.  However, he was isolated from his family in Nicaragua because of the war, and he may have started to develop an alcohol problem.  Green’s mother died during Spring Training 1984, which may have deepened his problem with alcohol, and perhaps cocaine, which was sweeping through major league baseball at that time.

Green briefly went into rehab in 1984, but left to resume playing baseball without having kicked his habits.  His drinking problem resurfaced in an ugly way after his playing career, when he was convicted of driving while intoxicated following an accident in St. Louis in which an elderly woman ultimately died. He likely served less than a year in jail based on the jury’s recommendation of six months of incarceration.

10 of the 14 Nicaraguan born players to play in the major leagues have been pitchers.  Nicaraguan major leaguers have disproportionately been Afro-Nicaraguan players.

As a final note, all of Cabrera, Cuthbert and the two Ramirez’s played on Nicaragua 2013 National Team that failed make the World Baseball Classic after getting blown out in qualifying games against Columbia (8-1) and Panama (6-2).  It tells you how good even the second-tier Latin American National teams are now.

Jhoulys Chacin Finally Gets Paid

December 21, 2017

The last couple of off-seasons I wrote posts about the fact that no MLB team seemed to value Jhoulys Chacin in spite of evidence that he is a better than adequate fifth starter.  The Milwaukee Brewers just decided to show Chacin some love.

Chacin just signed a two-year deal for a guaranteed $15.5 million.  That’s modest for a starting pitcher in today’s game, but it is still enough to more than double Chacin’s career earnings, which to date are probably around $13 million.  In effect, this two-year deal effectively guarantees Chacin a more than comfortable life, so long as he isn’t a complete wastrel.

In the greater scheme of things, Chacin has been very well compensated even without this new contract.  However, I for one like to see guys who hang around at the major league level, always good enough to hold a major league roster spot (no small feat), eventually get the compensation that veteran major league players typically get.

It remains to be seen how Chacin pitches for Milwaukee.  I don’t think he was great in 2017 for the Padres, compared to early in his career with the Rockies taking park factors into account.  However, that experience of pitching in Coors Field may help him on hot summer days in Milwaukee when Miller Park is a hitters’ park.

My guess is that at best, Chacin will be a No. 4 starter who eats up 180+ innings per season in Milwaukee.  That’s worth the contract he got over two years.

Go East, Not So Young Men

October 20, 2017

Every year around this time, I like to do a post regarding MLB-system players who are good bets to be playing in Japan’s NPB or South Korea’s KBO next season.  In the past, these posts typically identify players who had great seasons in AAA, but didn’t get much MLB playing time.

This year, I’ve decided to try to be a little more thorough about the subject, including looking at contract issues more likely to push some players, but not others, to try their luck in Asia.  The biggest factors for a player entering his age 26 or older season in deciding whether to give up the MLB dream and go to Asia are likely whether he has received a major league contract offer from an MLB team and also his personal, subjective belief about his likely future chances of MLB success.

I suspect that a lot players who play in MLB for the first time in September of their age 26 or 27  seasons and play well during that cup of coffee will elect to stay in the MLB system the next season, even if they get a better offer from an NPB or KBO team.  On the other hand, players who received substantial major league playing time in their early or mid-20’s, who then spend the next couple of years mostly at AAA, have a much better idea how tenuous MLB success can be and are a lot more tempted by better offer from abroad.

Here’s my list of some hitters who are good bets to be playing in Asia next year.

Oswaldo Arcia (27 in 2018).  Arcia played in 200 games for the Twins in 2013 and 2014 at the ages of 22 and 23.  Since then, his major league career has gone straight downhill, in large part because he isn’t patient enough, i.e., he doesn’t walk enough and strikes out too much.

At age 26, Arcia led the Pacific Coast League with a 1.049 OPS.  However, he didn’t play in even one major league game because he got hurt on August 30th, right before the September roster expansions.  I wasn’t able to determine the nature of his injury, and injuries have plagued him the last few seasons.  If he’s fully healthy by December 1st, though, he’d be a great bet for an Asian team.

Bryce Brentz (29).  Brentz hit a league-leading 31 home runs (Asian teams want their foreign hitters to hit the long ball) and his .863 OPS was second best in the International League.  Even so, the Red Sox never called him up, even after the rosters expanded in September.  A player can’t get a much stronger message his team doesn’t see him as part of their future than that.

Jabari Blash (28).  Blash has a lot of talent, but through his age 27 season, he hasn’t been able to put it together at the major league level.  If the Padres don’t offer him a major league contract, he should seriously consider any Asian offers he receives.

Leonys Martin (30).  NPB teams love Cubans as much as cigar aficionados do.  Small wonder — Alex Guerrero and Alfredo Despaigne respectively led the Central and Pacific League in home runs this past season.

Martin isn’t likely to hit 35 home runs in a season even in Japan, but he could 25-30 in a season there, and he still runs well. He has more than three full seasons of MLB service time, entitling him to salary arbitration, and will almost certainly be non-tendered by his current MLB club.  I’m guessing his best free agent offer will come from Japan.

Will Middlebrooks (29).  Middlebrooks’ MLB career has gone down the toilet, but he’s the kind of power-hitting 3Bman NPB teams like.

Mark Canha (29).  I could definitely see him getting a $1M offer from the Doosan Bears this off-season, if the Bears decide to replace Nick Evans as their foreign position player.

Cody Asche (28).  Another 3B candidate with power potential in Japan’s smaller ballparks, Asche was the Phillies’ main 3Bman in 2014 and 2015.  Now he’s just another guy coming off a strong minor league season looking for a decent contract going into his age 28 season.  Still, Asian teams love past MLB experience.

Xavier Avery (28).  A center fielder whose .816 OPS was 5th best in the International League, Avery’s only major league experience (32 games with the Braves) came way back in 2012.  You would have to think he’d be receptive to a foreign offer.

Nick Buss and Brandon Snyder (both 31).  A couple of left fielders coming off strong AAA seasons.  Buss led the Pacific Coast League with a .348 batting average, and his .936 OPS was 7th best.  Snyder’s .846 OPS was 3rd best in the International League.  You can guess which of the two AAA leagues is a pitchers’ league and which is a hitters’ league.

Chris Johnson and Eric Young, Jr. (both 33).  Two aging veterans with substantial MLB experience, both played well enough in AAA to suggest they still have something left going into 2018.  Both would provide an Asian team with a certain amount of defensive flexibility.  Johnson is probably more likely to get an offer because he has more power.

In my opinion, age 27 is the ideal age for a foreign MLBer to try his luck at a successful Asian career.  Here is a list of players who will be 27 next season, had great AAA seasons, have at least a little MLB experience, but don’t look likely to receive major league contract offers for 2018: Richie Schaffer, David Washington, Christian Walker, Mike Tauchman, Tyler Naquin, Ji-man Choi, Garrett Cooper, Tyler White, Christian Villanueva, Luke Voit, Max Muncy and Cesar Puello.

Almost all of these guys will elect to stay in the MLB system, but don’t be surprised if you hear that one or two of them have signed with Asian teams later this off-season.  Tyler Collins (28) and Travis Taijeron (29) are a couple of slightly older players who are reasonable possibilities of getting Asian offers.

Eric Thames’ Hot Start

April 27, 2017

I’m not entirely surprised by Eric Thames‘ hot 2017 start.  He really was good three years in a row in South Korea’s KBO, finishing 3rd, 1st and 2nd in OPS those years.

Thames obviously isn’t going to keep hitting in MLB better than he hit in the KBO.  The National League’s pitchers don’t have a book on Thames yet, and they’re finding out that even after three years in KBO, Thames can still hit MLB heat.  They will eventually figure out what they have to throw him and set him up for, and then it will be Thames’ turn to make adjustments.

In the video I’ve seen of Thames’ home runs so far this year his swing is very short, fast to the ball yet not rushed.  He’s strong enough he doesn’t need to wind up to generate bat speed.  It’s a very comfortable, confident swing.

Thames is being duly tested for PEDs, but he shows nothing but confidence about the results.  Obviously, PEDs could be a reason of Thames’ dramatic improvement.

However, Thames was younger and more talented than most of the players who head to East Asia for major league money.  He also went to an extreme hitters’ league that’s only a little better than AAA, which would be a great place for a hitter to develop confidence in his abilities.  It’s a lot easier to develop major league hitters in Denver than it is in either Seattle or San Diego.

Thames’ story is that while KBO pitchers don’t throw as hard, typically topping out at 91 or 92 mph, they throw a lot more breaking balls than MLB pitchers.  He says he had to become better at plate discipline than he’d been in America in order to lay off breaking balls out of the strike zone.

It certainly is apparent that after walking only 52 times in his 769 plate appearances in his major league seasons in 2012-2013 and 58 times in 514 plate appearances in his first KBO season, Thames has drawn 191 walks in 1,209 plate appearances since the start of the 2015 season.

Obviously, getting better at laying off bad pitches is a recipe for being able to put more good swings on the ball.  It also isn’t particularly unusual for a player with power to begin with to still be improving his power hitting through his age 30 season.

Thames has also said that he might not have made that improvement if he hadn’t made the jump to South Korea, stating words to the effect that if he’d stayed in the States, he might have not made the changes because it would have been easier to just keep doing what he had been doing.

I’d like to see more players in the future jump to Japan’s NPB or South Korea’s KBO and then back to MLB if they foreign performance merits it.  It is, in fact, becoming more common, although it’s also limited by the fact that the vast majority of the 4-A players who go to NPB or KBO simply aren’t going to blossom like an Eric Thames or Colby Lewis.

Sorry to See Clayton Blackburn Go

April 19, 2017

In the recent roster machinations that put Buster Posey on the 7-Day Concussion list and prompted a brief call-up of Tim Federowicz, the Giants elected to drop Clayton Blackburn from the 40-man roster.  That placed Blackburn on waivers, and the Giants were forced to trade him to the Rangers for young middle infielder Frandy De La Rosa.

I first became aware of Blackburn when he had a huge year in 2012 at Class A Augusta at the age of 19.  He was only a 16th round draft pick, so I was hoping he’d turn out to be a steal.

He continued to play well in the minors at each level, culminating in a 2015 season at AAA Sacramento in which he went 10-4 with a 2.85 ERA, good enough to lead the Pacific Coast League that season among pitchers who threw at least 115 innings (Blackburn threw 123 IP).  His strikeout total (99) was only tenth best, but his strikeout to walk ratio was better than 3/1, and he was only 22 that season.

Blackburn deserved a September call-up that year, but didn’t get one.  The Giants may have been right, however, because Blackburn regressed badly in 2016.  Back at AAA Sacramento, Blackburn went 7-10 with a 5.02 ERA.  His numbers were almost exactly the same as the year before, except that he allowed three times as many home runs.  That’ll sure rowdy up the old ERA.

Blackburn was dreadful in his first AAA start this year, allowing five earned runs in three innings pitched.  But it was just one start before the trade.  Blackburn’s still only 24 this season, and he’s maybe only a few adjustments from being a major league caliber pitcher.

The guy the Giants got, De La Rosa, also appears to have talent.  He had a solid season in the Class A Sally League last year at the age of twenty, most notable for a .330 on-base percentage, which is certainly acceptable for a middle infielder.

De La Rosa got off to a horrible start to 2017 at Down East (Kinston) in the Class A+ Carolina League (3 for 28, but two doubles and five walks), and the Giants have sent him back to their Sally League franchise in Augusta.  It’s entirely possible the Rangers gave up on him too soon also, although I would like my chances with Blackburn better, since he’s much closer to the major leagues.

Let’s hope they both ultimately make it to the Show.

The Best Hitting Pitchers in MLB Baseball 2017

March 28, 2017

As everyone knows, contemporary pitchers as a group can’t hit a lick.  The rise of the designated hitter, not only in the American League, but also it’s widespread use in the minors and in the college game, is perhaps the biggest factor for the demise of pitchers who can hit, but it’s hardly the only one.

Pitchers simply don’t get as many opportunities to hit today because of the steady trend of using more and more relievers throwing more and more innings, which means starting pitchers get fewer opportunities to hit, and there are more opportunities for professional hitters to be used as pinch hitters.

Also, no matter what the old-timers might say, the level of major league play has gradually and steadily improved since the professional game started in the 1870′s, which means that pitchers, who make the major leagues solely based on their ability to pitch (this has been the overwhelming norm since at least the early 1880’s, and probably a lot earlier) have undergone a slow but steady decline as hitters by virtue of the relative improvement of pitchers (as pitchers), fielders and professional hitters, in spite of the fact that most major league pitchers were great hitters in high school and many were fine college hitters.

A final point to make is that MLB teams now almost always decide at the moment an amateur player is drafted whether he will be developed as a pitcher or a hitter.  As a result, if a player is designated as a pitcher, he won’t get many opportunities to hit in the minors even if he was an outstanding college hitter, like for example, Mica Owings.  Coming up in today’s game, Babe Ruth much more likely than not would remain a pitcher throughout his major league career.

Nevertheless, there are always a few pitchers in any era who can hit.  This 2017 update ranks current pitchers with at least 100 career major league at-bats, in order to weed out the pitchers who just haven’t had enough at-bats for their career hitting stats to mean anything one way or another.

By today’s standards, a good-hitting pitcher is any pitcher with a career batting average at or above .160 or a career OPS at or over .400.  That’s really pretty terrible as hitters go, and it shows just how hard it is even for professional athletes who have played baseball their entire lives to hit major league pitching if the players have not been selected for the major leagues based their ability to hit.

1.  Madison Bumgarner (.183 career batting average and .542 career OPS).  For the third year in a row, fangraphs rates big-swinging MadBum as the most productive pitcher as a hitter in MLB.

On paper, Jake Arrieta‘s 2016 slash line of .262/.304/.415 is much more impressive than Bumgarner’s .186/.268/.360.  I expect that park factors play a big role in fangraphs’ ratings.

In the last three seasons, MadBum has slugged 12 HRs in 229 at-bats and driven in 33 RBIs.  There isn’t a team in the National League who couldn’t use that batting performance from a starter.  He’s also the only major league hitter since the start of the 2015 season to homer twice off MLB’s best starter Clayton Kershaw.  ‘Nuff said.

2.  Zack Greinke  (.219 BA, .580 OPS).   One thing I’ve noticed about good hitting pitchers, writing about them as I have for some years now, is that there doesn’t seem to be a particularly strong correlation between a pitcher’s ability to hit and his having spent his minor league time or the vast majority of his MLB career with a National League team, even though this would presumably mean that the pitcher got a lot more opportunities to hit.  After spending his minor league career and his first seven major league seasons with the Royals, Greinke established himself as a fine hitter by his second National League season.

If I had to guess, I would say that the ability to hit the fastball (and lay off breaking pitches) is probably the most important factor in a pitcher’s ability to hit.  Pitchers hate to walk the opposing pitcher, so any time the pitcher-as-hitter is ahead in the count, fastballs for strikes are likely to follow.

Greinke’s 2016 was his weakest offensive performance in four seasons.  Still, he hit .212 with a .476 OPS, which is great for a contemporary pitcher.

3.   Mike Leake (.203, .522).  Mike Leake has disappointed me as a hitting pitcher.  He hit a ton his first three major league seasons (2010-2012), but since then he’s just been a better than average major league average hitting pitcher.

I bet this has something to do with making adjustments.  By the 2013, major league pitchers realized that Leake could really hit and they’d have to pitch to him like a real hitter, and they’d figured out his weaknesses.  Leake doesn’t seem to have made the necessary counter-adjustments, and now he’s just a better than average hitting pitcher.

4.  Yovani Gallardo (.200, .562).  Gallardo hasn’t played in the NL in two years, but he’s 4 for 8 the last two seasons in the AL. His 33 extra base hits in 424 at-bats is what makes him a threat at the dish.

5. Adam Wainwright (.199 BA, .529 OPS).  With well over 500 career at-bats, Wainwright has well proven his abilities as a hitting pitcher.

6.  Noah Syndergaard (.198 BA, .613 OPS).  Syndergaard passed the 100 career at-bat threshold in 2016, and his combination of power (three HRs in 2016) and willingness to take a walk (seven in 67 plate appearances) made him a real threat at the plate this past season.

I’ve been writing versions of this post long enough now that I’ve noticed that pitchers who hit well through their first 100 major league at-bats tend to regress in subsequent years to towards the pitchers-as-hitters mean.  That’s why I’m ranking him low until he proves he can keep doing it.

7.  Daniel Hudson (.226, .567) & CC Sabathia (.217, .546).  These two deserve to be ranked together because their career numbers are very similar and they both just barely clear the 100 at-bat threshold.  They would rank higher based on the raw numbers except: (1) Hudson is now a relief pitcher, and despite 70 relief appearances, the 2016 Diamondbacks didn’t give him even one plate appearance in spite of the fact that he had his one big season at the plate in 2011 as a D’Back (no wonder the 2016 D’Backs lost 93 games); and (2) Sabathia hasn’t gotten on base since 2010 (CC’s 0-for-18 over that span).

Sabathia has only played one-half of one season in the National League in his long MLB career.   As an American League hurler, he only gets to hit about one or two games a year (roughly two to five plate appearances a year) during inter-league play, but he’s still gotten enough hits over his career to make this list.

Sabathia is tall and heavy set, which doesn’t sound like a recipe for a good-hitting pitcher (although that certainly describes an older Babe Ruth and Buzz Arlett), but obviously he’s just a great all-around baseball player.  I’ve long wondered what kind of batting numbers he would put up playing three or four full seasons in a row in the NL.  His career is now winding down, so we’ll never know.

9.  Tyler Chatwood (.232, .526).  Chatwood was a starter again last year and made it over the 100 at-bat threshold in 2016.  He’s a fine hitting pitcher who probably benefits as a hitter from making half his starts at Coors Field.  Needless to say, Coors Field doesn’t do much for him as a pitcher.

10.  Travis Wood.  (.182 BA, .522 OPS) Wood hit poorly in 2015, was moved to the bullpen in 2016, and signed this off-season with the AL’s Kansas City Royals for the next two seasons, so he won’t have many more opportunities to improve his career batting numbers anytime soon.

11.  Tyson Ross (.201, .482).  Ross is coming back from a major injury and pitching for an AL team, the Rangers, this year, but he sure hit in 2015 for the Padres.

Young Hitting Pitchers to Watch.  Michael Lorenzen (.244, .628).  Lorenzen can hit, but he has to establish himself as a starting pitcher if he ever hopes to reach the 100 at-bat cut-off.  He pitched exclusively in relief last year, but was used as a pinch hitter or allowed to hit five times in which he hit slugged a homer for his only hit.

Shohei Otani will be one of MLB’s best hitting pitchers as soon as he signs with an MLB team some years from now.  I’m hoping an NL team signs him for this reason.

The top two prospects in this year’s amateur draft, Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay, are two-way players, who will most likely be developed as pitchers.  Thus, the odds are good that one day at least one of these two will make a future year’s version of this post.

As final notes, the best hitting major league pitchers get pretty bad as major league hitters almost immediately.  Also, since I started writing these posts about five years ago, I’ve noticed a steady deterioration in the best-hitting major league pitchers just in that short time.  If this trend continues, I would expect the National League to adopt the designated hitter by 2030.