Archive for the ‘San Diego Padres’ category

The Oakland A’s Bargain Basement Sluggers, Part I

February 25, 2017

Earlier this off-season, ESPN’s David Schoenfeld wrote an article to the effect that older sluggers like Brandon Moss were having trouble finding contracts because teams were looking for the next Brandon Moss, i.e. minor league players past the age of 27 who could give a team a few productive seasons at a very low price.  At the time, I opined that the failure of these players to sign so far this off-season had more to the do with these players coming to terms with what teams were willing to pay them, rather than teams trying to find the next player of this type, because. as a practical matter, the next Brandon Moss isn’t so easy to find.

Ultimately, the St. Louis Cardinals gave Moss $12 million for two years, roughly ten times what the next Brandon Moss found now would cost his team in 2017 and 2018.

Schoenfeld’s article also drew attention from fangraphs, which wrote a piece on who would most likely be the next Brandon Moss in 2017.  Not surprisingly, about half of the players fangraphs identified will be playing in Japan or South Korea next year, because they are the kind of no-longer-prospects that NPB and KBO teams look for each off-season.

I still like 27 year old Jabari Blash, whose .914 OPS in 646 AAA at-bats suggests he’s a major league player, even if he hits .220 at the MLB level.  However, the Padres successfully passed him through waivers in January, so my opinion is apparently not shared by any of the other 29 major league teams.

Anyway, it’s all got me thinking about these kinds of players and the team, the Oakland A’s, that has made them famous.  What follows is a list of the players at least 28 years old the year they broke out in MLB, whom the A’s obtained for essentially peanuts in the last 25 years.

1.   Geronimo Berroa (28 years old in 1994; signed as free agent).  Berroa is the first of these players I remember the A’s finding.  He had three and a half terrific seasons for the A’s in which he hit 87 HRs with an on-base percentage well over .350, before the A’s traded him to the Baltimore Orioles.

2.  Matt Stairs (28 in 1996; free agent).  Stairs had one of the great major league careers for a player who didn’t have even 200 plate appearances in a season until his age 29 season.  In four and half seasons with the A’s, Stairs hit 122 HRs and posted the high on-base percentages the A’s were hoping for.

3.  Olmedo Saenz (28 in 1999; free agent).  Saenz was never an every day player in his four seasons with the A’s, but he was a valuable bench player who posted an OPS over .800 in three of his four seasons with the team and who could play 3B when needed.

4.  Marco Scutaro (28 in 2004; claimed off waivers from Mets).  Scutaro wasn’t a power hitter by any stretch of the imagination, but he was an older, undervalued minor league player whom the A’s acquired for peanuts.  He gave the A’s four strong seasons in what turned out to be a long and successful major league career.

5.  Jack Cust (28 in 2007; cash purchase from Padres).  Cust was perhaps my favorite player of the bunch, mostly because he was such an extreme example (at the time) of what the A’s recognized as an undervalued player.  Cust didn’t hit for average, and he struck out a hell of a lot; but in his four seasons with Oakland, he slugged 97 HRs and walked 377 times.  Only a decade later, this type of player is common in MLB, to the extent that teams can find them. There were so many one dimensional sluggers who had a hard time finding contracts mainly because none of them drew walks like Cust, Stairs or Berroa.

[I don’t know what the A’s paid the Padres to get Jack Cust, except that it was peanuts by MLB standards.]

6.  Brandon Moss (28 in 2012; free agent).  Moss is actually the least representative player on this list, as he played regularly, if unproductively, at the major league level in 2008 and 2009.  When he finally put it together for the A’s, he hit 76 HRs in three seasons, before the A’s traded Moss to the Indians.

7.  Stephen Vogt (28 in 2013; cash purchase from the Rays).  It’s somewhat difficult to know whether catchers count, since this is the non-pitching position at which players tend to develop at the latest age.  Even so, he was past the age 27 when the A’s acquired him, he’s hit 45 HRs in his four seasons with the A’s, and he likely cost the A’s peanuts to acquire.

Honorable Mention.  Frank Menechino (29 in 2000; selected from White Sox in minor league portion of Rule 5 Draft 12/97).  Menechino had only one season as an every day player for the A’s (2001), and he hit only .242.  However, he was a 2Bman with a little pop and a .369 OBP that year.  The A’s won 102 games in 2001, so one has to assume that Menechino had to have done something right.

 

Who’s Left?

January 21, 2017

In my mind the last piece the 2017 San Francisco Giants need is a right-handed power hitting outfielder.  Right now, the team’s likely third through fifth outfielders are Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker and Gyorkis Hernandez.  All are reasonably young and talented, but none has significant major league experience, something the Giants typically value highly.

The team has signed Michael Morse and Justin Ruggiano, both of whom you will note are right-handed hitters, to minor league deals, but neither looks like a particularly realistic shot to make the team out of Spring Training.

I scanned mlbtraderumors.com’s free agent tracker yesterday, and Ryan Raburn and Rickie Weeks look like the best two right-handed hitting outfielders still available.  Both could be signed to minor league deals for 2017, or in Weeks’ case a relatively inexpensive major league deal, it well appears.

Of the two, I like Weeks better, because he’s two years younger, has more power, has had a much better career, and all in all had a better 2016 season with the bat than Raburn did.  Fangraphs says that Weeks’ outfield defense is brutally bad, but Weeks has played only 55 games in his lengthy major league career in the outfield, all of them in the last two seasons.  Weeks still appears to run fairly well, and I would have to think that he’d get better as an outfielder as he gets more experience after a long major league career through age 31 spent exclusively at 2B.

Another player I like is Jabari Blash, who was just designated for assignment by the Padres.  He isn’t going to hit for average, but he’s blasted an astounding 45 home runs in 646 AAA plate appearances, about one full season at that level.  He’ll only be 27 in 2017, and his on-base percentages are high too.

The main knock on Blash is that he’s got no more major league experience than Williamson, Parker or Hernandez.  However, on the subject of finding the next Brandon Moss, Blash has to be right at the top of the list.

Jhoulys Chacin Gets No Respect

December 18, 2016

Jhoulys Chacin gets no respect, at least by the current standards of MLB.  Last off-season I wrote a post stating that I just couldn’t understand why the Diamondbacks failed to tender Chacin a contract when he was only expected to get $1.8 million through the arbitration process.  I thought it would make a great deal of sense for somebody else to swoop in and sign him for that $1.8 million or even $2 million.

Chacin ended up getting only a minor league deal from the Braves, who then traded him early the season to the Angels for a grade-C prospect.  Chacin was little more than a mediocre fifth starter in 2016 whose biggest accomplishment was eating 144 innings.  Even so, fifth starters who aren’t god-awful have value: fangraphs valued his 2016 performance at $13 million.

Now, I really don’t believe that Chacin was worth any kind of $13 million, but it’s certain he was worth more than the $1.75 million the Padres just signed him to.  Inning-eating fifth starters of Chacin’s ilk are easily worth a one-year guarantee of $3M or $4M in today’s market.

For example, Jerome Williams received $2.5 million in 2015 for a 2014 campaign less impressive than Chacin’s 2016.  That should have been the starting point for Chacin’s negotiation, since the market has gone up since then.

If nothing else, Chacin’s signing with the Padres may be the bargain basement steal of the 2016-2017 off-season, just as his signing was last off-season.

Top Pitching Prospects for MLB in South Korea’s KBO 2016/2017

October 11, 2016

The KBO is currently an extreme hitters’ league, which makes it difficult to evaluate pitchers with potential major league talent.  Nevertheless, these are the current KBO pitchers who impressed me in 2016 insofar as pitching in MLB in the future.

Michael Bowden (age 30 in 2017).  A former MLBer, Bowden had a fine first season in the KBO, going 18-7 with a 3.80 ERA (6th best — it’s a hitters’ league) and leading the KBO with 160 strikeouts in 180 innings pitched.

He’d probably be better off getting paid major league money pitching in the KBO until he has a season so impressive no one can ignore it.  However, given his relatively young age and strong 2016 performance, he’s the most likely foreign KBOer to return to the MLB system and have some success in 2017.

Kwang-hyun Kim (28) and Hyun-jong Yang (29).  The two best veteran Korean starters in KBO, both were posted last off-season but neither made it to MLB.  Kim’s team, the SK Wyverns, accepted a $2 million posting bid, but Kim was unable to reach a deal with the Padres.  Yang’s team, the Kia Tigers, rejected a posting bid reported to be $1.5 million.

Both Kim and Yang should be true free agents this off-season, and without the need for posting fees, either could end up in MLB.  Kim pitched well in 2016, but was limited to 137 innings pitched (3.88 ERA and 116 Ks), after missing most of July and the first half of August to an injury of some kind.  Yang pitched just over 200 innings with a 3.68 ERA (tied for fourth best) and 146 strikeouts (5th best — strikeout rates were low in the KBO for starters in 2016).

Both Kim and Yang are lefties, which might give them added value to MLB teams, since they would probably be relievers in MLB.

Woo-ram Jung (32).  After the success of Seung-hwan Oh in MLB, I expect MLB teams to be looking for the next South Korean reliever to sign.  Woo-ram Jung is probably the best one remaining, with 620 strikeouts in 649.1 career KBO innings pitched and a career 2.91 ERA.  However, he signed a four-year 8.4 billion won (a little over $7.5 million) last off-season with the Hanwha Eagles, presumably meaning he won’t be coming to MLB anytime soon and maybe never, given that he will be 35 the season after his current contract ends.

Chang-min Shim (24).  A young pitcher who already has nearly five years of KBO experience and a live arm (303 Ks in 268 career KBO innings pitched), it appears likely that Shim has not yet performed his two years of mandatory military service.  Thus, it may be some time before he gets posted or becomes a free agent.

Jae-haek Lee (26).  A pitcher I’ve been following since he had a big rookie year in 2013, some mid-season injuries limited Lee to 127.2 IP in 2016, but he struck out 134 batters, giving him the highest strikeout rate for any KBO pitcher who threw at least 100 innings.  His career 3.95 ERA isn’t impressive on its face.  However, all but his rookie season have been played since offense exploded in the KBO.

Lee has the disadvantage of being a small right-hander, listed at 5’11” and 176 lbs.  He may remind MLB teams too much of Suk-min Yoon, who famously flopped after being signed by the Orioles in 2014.  In fact, Lee is smaller than Yoon.

Jung-woo Im (26) and Jae-yoon Kim (26).  Both have live arms.  Im established himself as a closer this year, striking out 87 batters in 70.2 IP.  He has more than four years of KBO experience.

Kim has struck out 143 batters in 99 IP over the last two seasons, but those are his only two in KBO’s major league, so he may be too old by the time his team is willing to post him.

Kang-min Koo (20) and Se-woong Park (21).  Two even younger pitchers with live arms.  Koo as a 19 year old rookie struck out 67 batters in 68.2 IP and recorded a 4.19 ERA, which is great for a 19 KBO rookie in 2016.

Park struck out 133 batters in 139 innings pitched in his second year in the KBO.  Unfortunately, he has had a 5.76 ERA each of the last two seasons, which means he’s still got a lot to learn to become an effective starter.

Both Koo and Park are such a long way from pitching in MLB that it’s mostly wishful thinking on my part even to mention them.

Tim Lincecum Wins First Start for the Angels

June 19, 2016

Tim Lincecum won his first start for the Angels tonight.  He was good, allowing one run in six innings pitched, but he wasn’t that good, walking two and striking out only two.

Like most Giants fans, there is a special place in my heart for Timmy, and I’m certainly rooting for him to come back and have a late career surge that makes him a possible Hall of Fame candidate.  However, my left brain says it’s just not going to happen.

Everything I’ve seen so far in Tim’s comeback from last year’s hip surgery says to me that Tim is the basically the same guy he was before the injury:  a pitcher who once had great stuff who really knew how to pitch but didn’t have the greatest command due to a pitching motion that provided great deception but was hard to replicate consistently, but now has below average stuff with the same problematic command but is still major league useful because of his deception and his inherent ability to pitch.

His first start with the Angels is, in my mind, entirely consistent with a guy who can still no-hit a team like the Padres, but who is going to struggle against teams with more than two elite hitters because his stuff and his command just aren’t good enough.

I will certainly keep rooting for Tim, particularly when he can beat an NL West team in inter-league play, and not at all when it can somehow cost the Giants anything.

Tim is perfect for the 2016 Angels, a team desperate for starting pitching.  I expect Tim to be better than any other option the Angels have for at least the next couple of months.  You can look at their AAA pitchers at Salt Lake City and see for yourself.

Jarrett Parker Back and Still Swinging for the Fences

May 25, 2016

The San Francisco Giants promoted Jarrett Parker again to replace the injured Angel Pagan, and Parker was quick to leave his mark, hitting a two-run homer to center in last night’s game against the Padres.  After Parker’s torrid September last season, a lot of people have been eager to see him get more opportunities at the highest level.

Parker got off to a slow start at AAA Sacramento this year after a fairly strong Spring Training, but he has been hitting more lately, now tied for the Pacific Coast League lead with 13 home runs and a slash line of .281/.366/.615.

After last night’s game, Parker’s major league slash line this season is .250/.400./.625 in ten plate appearances.  In my mind, this is pretty much exactly what the Giants can hope for if things go right for Parker.  He strikes out too much to be likely to maintain a batting average much above .250 in regular major league play, but he’ll take a walk, and his power is very real.

Parker was a tools draft pick, and it has taken him a long time to develop.  He’s now 27, but he runs well, and he’s got that power, so there is still a reasonable chance for him to have an MLB career if he can take advantage of his opportunities this season.  If he doesn’t, there’s a good chance he’ll end up in Asia in a couple of years.

Former Prospect Matt Bush Finally Makes Majors

May 13, 2016

2004 No. 1 overall draft pick Matt Bush was called up today from AA ball by the Texas Rangers.  It’s one hell of an improbable story, and I’m not entirely sure how I feel about.

For those who don’t know the story, Bush was an extremely talented shortstop coming out of high school in San Diego, who the Padres selected first overall because he was a local boy and the team wasn’t willing to shell out for a couple of other top prospects represented by Scott Boras.

As well as being extremely talented, Bush had an extremely big chip on his shoulder and sense of entitlement.  He got into a bar fight within weeks of being drafted and quickly became an alcoholic with a penchant for drinking and driving.

Bush couldn’t hit enough to move up as a SS, so he shifted to pitcher but quickly tore his elbow tendon and required Tommy John surgery.

Then during Spring Training in 2012, he borrowed his roommate’s truck, although Bush had long since lost his driver’s license to DUI convictions, got drunk again and ultimately ran over the head of a 72 year old motorcyclist, who survived because he was wearing a helmet.  Bush hit and ran but was quickly arrested a few miles down the road.

Bush pleaded no contest and was sentenced to 51 months in prison, ultimately serving about 3 1/2 years local jail and a Florida State Penitentiary.  Less than two months after getting out of stir, the Rangers signed him to a minor league contract because Bush can still throw a baseball 97 miles per hour.

On the one hand, I feel like Bush has done his time, and if he is finally able to succeed and turn his life around, that’s a good thing.  Besides, it’s a great story of an unlikely comeback.

My concern, however, is that if Bush finally makes good as a major league player, we, the baseball reading public, will be subjected to the usual BS stories by sportswriters about how Bush has turned his life around and what a great human being he now is.  In professional sports, just about everything is forgiven if on-field performance is sufficiently high — just ask Ray Lewis — and an athlete’s reported qualities as a great human being and a “leader” are far too often closely correlated to said performance level.

While Bush has done his time, it’s no sure thing that he is now a great human being no matter how his future major league career goes.