I checked out each major league’s stolen base leaders today, and it was eye-opening. Major leaguers are stealing bases a whole lot less than they once were, but they are stealing bases with much greater efficiency.
Roughly 115 games into the 2019 season, and only nine players have stolen at least 20 bases across both leagues so far. No one has stolen more than 31. Yet, the top nine base stealers are doing so at a combined success rate of just better than 85%!
It is generally believed that the break even point above which stealing bases actually makes sense as an offensive strategy is about 70%. Much above 70%, base stealing clearly has value; much below 70% and the base runner would be better off keeping still and waiting for the next hitter to push-’em-up.
In today’s home-run-happy, low-batting-average game, where just about every hitter swings for the fences on just about every count, you would expect to see base-stealing way down. The period from about 1930 to 1950 was an era in which there was a lot of offense and not a lot of base-stealing, until African American and Latin American players brought base-stealing back into the game, in large part because the best of these players could steal bases at a sufficiently high rate to justify the effort. When MLB enlarged the strike zone in the early 1960’s, there followed a generation of a lot less offense and lot more base-stealing.
With home runs at a record high rate and singles at probably their lowest rate since at least the mid-1980’s, stealing bases doesn’t have as much value. Add to that modern advanced statistical analysis, which has now worked its way down to most players, and it seems that even players who could be stealing a lot of bases have decided that it isn’t worth trying unless they are nearly certain they will be successful in the attempt.
Stealing bases with an 85% success rate, which is essentially gaining five bases at the cost of one out, clearly has offensive value. The fact that this year’s base stealing leaders are stealing with such efficiency may be something of an aberration. However, it also suggests that the best base stealers ought to be running a little more often.