Contemporary Minor League Aces

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a two-part series on contemporary minor league stars, who I defined as players with at least 4,000 career plate appearances in the high minors (the AAA and AA levels).  The two parts are here and here.

I thought it would also be fun to identify any recent pitchers who have had long and successful minor league careers.  Deciding on 1,200 career innings pitched in the high minors as a cut-off (which limits the list to starters and seems to be about the equivalent of my 4,000 plate appearances cut-off for position players), I was able to find only six contemporary pitchers who have accomplished this feat.  However, I was able to find an additional half a dozen or so pitchers who have come awfully close.

One final note before getting on with the list — for purchases of AA and AAA performance, pitching in the Mexican League counts, but pitching in other foreign leagues (Japan’s NPB, South Korea’s KBO, Taiwan, Italy, etc.) does not.  While this is somewhat arbitrary, it makes it easier to use baseball reference to find the qualifying pitchers, and what I am interested in doing is identifying American minor league stars, rather than Americans who have starred in Asia.  Without further ado:

1.  Nelson Figueroa (1,470 AAA innings pitched, 266.2 AA, 499 MLB).  Leading the list of contemporary minor league aces, Figueroa is a smallish right-hander (listed as 6’1″ and 185 lbs), who has a career minor league of 141-95, by far the most wins and best winning percentage of any recent minor leaguer I could find.  He has a career 3.70 minor league ERA with nearly three strikeouts for every walk allowed.

Nelson was originally drafted by the Mets in the 30th round of the 1995 Draft, and he was only just released in late April of this year by the Diamondbacks after getting off to a brutally bad start for the AAA Reno Aces a month shy of his 39th birthday.

Figueroa pitched in parts of nine major league seasons for six different teams mostly as a spot starter/long reliever.  While his career major league record of 20-35 is pretty bad, his career 4.55 ERA is hardly terrible.

2.  Andrew Lorraine (1,613 AAA, 7.1 AA, 175 MLB).  Once a 4th round draft pick out of Stanford, Lorraine has thrown more innings at the AAA level than any other recent pitcher.  His minor league career record was 110-89 with a 4.15 ERA.

A left-hander, Andrew pitched in parts of seven major league seasons for seven different teams and invariably got hit hard (career MLB ERA of 6.53).  He just didn’t have the stuff to have a successful major league career, but he clearly knew enough about pitching to excel at the AAA level.  His career ended in 2009 at age 36 playing in the now-defunct independent-A Golden Baseball League.

3.  Jared Fernandez (1,293.1 AAA, 504.1 AA, 108.2 MLB).  A big right-hander, Fernandez pitched more innings in the high minors than anyone else on my list.  He finished his minor league career in 2007 at age 35 with a 105-100 record and a 4.34 ERA.

Jared didn’t break through to the majors until age 29, and even though he pitched effectively for the Reds in 2002 and the Astros in 2003, he was already past age 30 both of those seasons.  Fernandez’s career ended with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s NPB.

4.  Chris George (1,244.1 AAA, 97.1 AA, 237.1 MLB).  The 31st overall pick in the 1998 Draft out of high school, George got numerous opportunities while in his early 20′s between 2001 and 2004 to establish himself as a starter for the Royals.  However, he didn’t have major league command, and he was also hit hard, posting a career major league 6.48 ERA with awful numbers at every pitching category.

Chris then settled in as a journeyman AAA starter.  He finished his minor league career in 2012 with an 85-87 record and a 4.70 ERA.

5.  Shane Loux (1,143.1 and counting AAA, 157.2 AA, 144 MLB).  Still pitching effectively, but unspectacularly, for the AAA Fresno Grizzlies this season at age 33, Loux is now 106-109 with a 4.46 ERA for his minor league career. He was once a second round draft pick.

Shane pitched in the majors in 2002-2003 for the Tigers, 2008-2009 for the Angels and last season for the Giants.  Last year’s performance, in which he posted a 4.97 ERA in 19 relief appearances, was probably his best at the major league level.

6.  Andy Van Hekken (740.1 AAA, 460.2 AA, 30 MLB).  A former 3rd round draft pick, Van Hekken’s only major league experience came in 2002 at the age of 22 when he went 1-3 in five starts for the Tigers.  His 3.00 ERA looked pretty good, but his other numbers suggested he wasn’t major league ready.

Andy returned to AAA and never made it back to the Show.  His career minor league record of 122-86 and 3.94 ERA look pretty good, but he never had any big years at AAA and had to use the independent-A Atlantic League several times to keep himself in professional baseball.

Andy went to South Korea to pitch in 2012, where he has established himself as one of the KBO’s top starters.  He currently has one of the five best ERAs in the young 2013 KBO season.

7.  R. A. Dickey (1,079 AAA, 108.2 AA, 1,113.1 MLB).  Undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list, Dickey’s career story is well known.  He makes this list with more than 1,000 AAA innings pitched because he has had essentially two professional pitching careers, the first as a regular pitcher and the second as a knuckleballer.

8.  Chris Michalak (1,048.2 AAA, 78 AA, 191.1 MLB).  A lefty, Michalak finished his professional career with the AAA Las Vegas 51′s in 2009 at age 38.  He finished with a minor league career record of 93-90 and a 4.14 ERA.

Michalak pitched fairly well for the Blue Jays and Rangers in 2001 and 2002, but he was already over 30 years old in 2001.

9.  Randy Keisler (1,027.1 AAA, 116 AA, 150.2 MLB).  Another lefty, Keisler has gone 99-77 with a 3.95 ERA in his minor league career.  He pitched last year in the Atlantic League at age 36.  Keisler pitched parts of six major league seasons for five different teams and almost always got hit hard, posting a career MLB ERA of 6.63 with lots of hits, home runs and walks allowed.

10.  Brandon Duckworth (1,014 AAA, 167 AA, 511 MLB).  Other than Nelson Figueroa and R. A. Dickey, the only pitcher on this list with a substantial major league career, Duckworth pitched eight seasons in the Show, going 23-34 with a 5.28 ERA mostly as a fifth and spot starter/long reliever.  As a minor leaguer, Brandon has a career 110-74 record with a 3.80 ERA.

Duckworth went to Japan late last season and pitched well enough in six starts to return to the Rakuten Golden Eagles this year at age 37.  After seven starts this year, he is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA, not good enough for a highly paid foreigner in pitching-dominated NPB.

11.  Brian Cooper (877 AAA, 319.2 AA, 167.2 MLB).  A small right-hander whose professional career ended in 2006 at age 31, Cooper appeared in a total of 13 games for the 2004 and 2005 Giants.  Given that the Giants are the team I follow, I’m a bit embarrassed to admit that I don’t really remember Cooper.

Cooper finished his minor league career with an 87-80 record and a 4.61 ERA.  He went 15-9 for the 2003 AAA Charlotte Knights, which is a lot for AAA — none of the players higher on this list managed to win 15 games in a single year at AAA.

12.  Adam Pettyjohn (788.1 AAA, 367.1 AA, 69 MLB).  Once a second round draft pick, Pettyjohn had a career minor league record of 85-74 with a 4.23 ERA.  He went 15-6 for the 2008 AAA Louisville Bats.

Pettyjohn pitched briefly for the 2001 Detroit Tigers and the 2008 Cincinnati Reds.  His last season was 2010 for the AAA Buffalo Bisons.

13.  Derek Lee (450.2 AAA, 732.2 AA, 0 MLB).  Last and certainly least on this list, Derek Lee is the only player on this list to pitch more innings at AA than AAA.  He never pitched in the majors, which likely also prevented him from making some real money playing in Asia.  He finished his minor league career in the Mexican League in 2008 at age 33 with a final record of 81-84 and 3.61 ERA.

Lee played twelve years of professional baseball and probably never made more than $50,000 a year, if that.  He’s also unlikely to get a pension in any amount, unlike almost all the other players on this list, who had major league careers just long enough to get some kind of a pension.  Somehow, it doesn’t seem fair.

If I’ve missed any pitchers who should be included in my list, please let me know.

George Kontos Needs to Pick It Up

The Giants lost 10-6 to the Blue Jays with eight of the runs scored off of Barry Zito and the last two off second-year pitcher George Kontos.  Kontos now has a 4.71 ERA, which is just not good enough for a reliever pitching his home games at AT&T Park on one of the best, if not the best, top-to-bottom staffs in major league baseball.

In fairness to Kontos, he has pitched better than his ERA, at least until today, when he gave up two runs on five hits and a walk in 1.1 innings pitched.  Kontos has struck out 20 batters in 21 IP while allowing only seven walks and three fewer hits than innings pitched.

I like Kontos.  The Giants got him from the Yankees for back-up catcher Chris Stewart, which in my mind (and given the Giants’ current strength at catcher) was little more than a box of cracker jack.  In fairness to the Yankees, they’ve gotten 77 games and counting out of Stewart, and fangraphs values his contribution to the Bombers to date at $3.8 million, a lot more than Stewart is likely being paid (fangraphs likes Stewart’s defense).  Suffice it to say the trade was one that was good for both ballclubs.

Kontos has a good arm and finally broke out in a relief role, after starting his professional career as a starter, at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre at age 26 two seasons ago.  He was terrific out of the bullpen for both the AAA Fresno Grizzlies and the Giants last year.  I was hoping he’d be a solid middle reliever for the Giants at least through age 31.

That might have been too much to hope for.  Kontos was 27 last year, the age at which the largest number of major leaguers have their peak season. Kontos is 28 this year, and he may already be on the decline.

Meanwhile, Heath Hembree, who is three and a half years younger than Kontos, is blowing them away pitching for AAA Fresno.  He currently has a 1.89 ERA with 20 Ks in 19 IP and a WHIP just below 1.00.

If Kontos doesn’t pick it up and Hembree keeps pitching the way he’s been pitching at Fresno, expect the two players to trade places well before the All-Star Break.

Chicago Cubs Lock Up Anthony Rizzo

The big news yesterday was the Cubs’ announcement that the team had extended 23 year old 1Bman Anthony Rizzo for seven years at $41 million.  This signing continues and extends the trend of major league teams locking up their young stars with long term contracts early in their careers.

At this point in his career, Rizzo has exactly 685 major league plate appearances, about one full season, with a career .253 batting average and .762 OPS.  At this point Rizzo is still more promise than production, even taking into account his awful debut with the Padres in 2011, when at age 21 he batted only .141 with a .523 OPS in 49 games.

By way of comparison, Starlin Castro and Paul Goldschmidt looked like seasoned veterans at the point that their respective teams extended them (Castro by the Cubs last August and Goldschmidt by the Diamondbacks this Spring) insofar as Castro and Goldschmidt had at least completed full seasons in which they had established themselves as star players before being extended.

The Cubs’ thinking is obvious — they’re sold on Rizzo and they’ve locked in for the best years of his career a still very young power hitter who is more likely than not to get much better over the next three to five seasons at a very reasonable rate.  In fact, the contract contains two club options for years eight and nine which, if exercised, would raise the contract to $70 million and would keep Rizzo a Cub through age 31.

Rizzo, on the other hand, has potentially left a lot of money on the table for the guarantee of what should be lifetime financial security at age 23.  He also gets to play his prime years in Wrigley Field, which gives him the one of the best chances to develop into a superstar slugger.

Clearly, there’s a risk here for the Cubs — as noted above, Rizzo really hasn’t done much so far in his major league career, and he strikes out a lot.  Major league pitchers will find holes in Rizzo’s swing, and we don’t yet know how good Rizzo will be at making the necessary adjustments to close or at least shrink those holes.  Even so, the upside of this signing is certainly high enough to justify the $41 million risked.

At this point, I think the only thing standing in the way of other teams signing their young stars as relatively inexperienced as Rizzo to long term deals is that some of these young stars will choose to defer the long-term deal for at least a couple of seasons in order to establish themselves as major stars and command the much larger deals that, for example, Matt Cain (five years and $112.5 million new money) and Buster Posey (nine years, $167 million) recently signed with the Giants, Felix Hernandez (five years, $135.5 million new money) signed with the Mariners and Clayton Kershaw will likely soon sign with the Dodgers.  Further, teams will likely wait longer to extend their young pitchers in order to see whether they can handle 200+ inning work loads for multiple seasons.

 

Why So Many Strikeouts?

I read this article from SI’s Joe Lemire today in which he attempts to identify the reason why strike outs are so dramatically up this year (the Tigers’ and Red Sox’s staffs are both over a strikeout per inning pitched, which if they continue at their current rates through the end of the season would set the first and second all-time records). 

One thing I would add — one reason that batters strike out more now is that the gradual rise of sabrmetrics over the last 30 years has established that batting average is a lot less important to scoring runs than either on-base percentage or slugging percentage.  In other words, hitters can help an offense more by hitting a lot of home runs and drawing a lot of walks than hitting for a high average.

Lemire notes that fewer hitters now have a two-strike approach, seeking to hit home runs with two strikes rather than simply putting the ball in play.  As a result, he writes, strikeouts with two strikes are up 13% compared to 25 years ago.  What he fails to expressly note, although he provides the raw data, is that two-strike home runs are up 24% over the same period. 

24% more home runs at the cost of 13% more strikeouts?  That sounds like a great trade-off to me, particularly when you take into account the fact that major league defense has steadily improved throughout major league history, meaning that simply putting the ball in play is less likely to result in a base runner than it did 25 or more years ago.

Also, recognition of the value of walks, and the players who draw them, has increased in the last 30 years.  Strikeout rates have accordingly increased, because batters who take more close pitches, and thus draw more walks, also tend to strike out more.  Anyone who has ever watched baseball on TV knows that major league pitchers throw to the corners, and umpires are anything but consistent in calling those pitches balls or strikes.

SI’s Tom Verducci wrote an article about a month ago in which he attributes the increase in strikeouts to more pitchers mastering the cutter (cut fastball) and two-seam fastball combination.  Essentially, the two pitches are both fastballs which tail in opposite directions, making it extremely difficult for hitters to square up either pitch.

On the one hand, I find it hard to believe that major league pitchers haven’t been using different grips on their fastballs to get different movement for any less than the last 100 years.  On the other hand, I definitely think there is a higher percentage of major league pitchers today with both the arm strength and the training to throw different fastballs with sharp movement in different directions than ever before.  

For example, in Ball Four written in 1970, Jim Bouton strongly suggests that major league pitching coaches of his era were so mediocre that really helpful ones like Johnny Sain were the exception rather than the rule.  I doubt that’s the case today.  Not every pitching coach today may be as good as the Giants’ Dave Righetti, but most teams now have a pitching coach who can help any pitcher willing to listen.

San Francisco Giants Minor League Update, Part IV: Class A Augusta GreenJackets

The Augusta GreenJackets are currently 19-14 and in third place in the South Atlantic League’s Southern Division, a game and a half out of first place.  Augusta has traditionally been a terrific place for pitchers, and the 2013 GreenJackets have a roster geared mostly at developing young arms.

As such, I’ll start with a run-down of the GreenJackets’ pitching prospects.  Chris Stratton, the Giants’ 1st round Draft pick last year (20th overall), has a 3.02 ERA with a pitching line of 35.2 innings pitched, 24 hits, two HRs and 12 walks allowed and 42 Ks after six starts.  He’s basically on track for where he should be at this early stage of his professional career.

Last year’s second round pick (84th overall) Martin Agosta is pitching slightly better.  He has a 2.01 ERA with a pitching line of 31.1 IP, 22 hits, two HRs and 13 BBs allowed and 45 Ks.  Stratton and Agosta are both 22 this year.

21 year old Dominican and former bonus baby Joan Gregorio was terrific in his first four starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and striking out 25 while walking only one in 19 innings pitched.  However, he strained an oblique muscle and hasn’t pitched since April 25th.  Another 21 year old Dominican Kendry Flores currently has a 2.65 ERA with 28 Ks and only five walks in 34 IP and a WHIP below 1.00. 

One thing to note about these four young starters is that none is listed as weighing more than 186 pounds, which is something of a cause for concern.  Sure, they’re young and will likely continue to put on weight; however, they’re not that young, and it’s clear that none of the them is going to develop into the kind of big-bodied pitcher who tends to get hurt less than smaller-framed pitchers.

So far, the most impressive of the GreenJackets’ relievers is 22 year old right-hander Derek Law, who has a 2.70 ERA and has struck out 27 while walking eight in 20 innings of work. Righty Tyler Mizenko has pitched even better, having yet to allow a run this season after 14 appearances and 15.1 innings of work.  However, Mizenko is a year older than Law and his command appears more iffy.

Brandon Farley, Mason McVey, Stephen Johnson, Ian Gardek and Steven Okert have also been effective out of the bullpen this spring and none is older than 22.

Among the position players, SS Matthew Duffy is off to the best start, batting .283/.400/.383, as I write this.  Duffy is a 22 year old out of Long Beach State, whom the Giants selected in the 18th round of the Draft last year.  He didn’t make my list of the Giants’ top 60 prospects compiled last November.

Neither did Shayne Houck, a 22 year old 3Bman who went to the same small college as Ryan Vogelsong (Kutztown University in Pennsylvania).  However, he’s currently hitting .347 with a .443 on-base percentage in 23 games.  However, Houck has no power to speak of.

One player who made my pre-season list of top Giants’ prospects and is off to a good start in 2013 is Jesus Galindo, whom I ranked 38th.  A 22 year old outfielder from Venezuela, Galindo is hitting .280/.384/.346 with 19 stolen bases in 23 attempts.

Youngsters Tyler Hollick, Travious Relaford and Charles Jones, whom I ranked 22nd, 23rd and 44th on my list of prospects, have all struggled at Augusta this spring.  Hollick, after hitting .178 with a .512 OPS in 15 games for the GreenJackets, has apparently been sent back to extended Spring Training to await the start of the short-season A leagues.  He’ll most likely be assigned to Salem-Keizer in the Northwest League. 

Charles Jones, currently hitting .167 with a .483 OPS after 31 games played, looks likely to join Hollick back in Arizona soon.  Both Hollick and Jones are only 20 this year, so their failures to hit full-season Class A pitching is not yet a major cause for concern.

Relaford, a 21 year old shortstop, hit .231 with a .516 OPS in 14 games at Augusta and was then promoted up to the AA Richmond Flying Squirrels to take the roster space of the injured Skyler Stromsmoe.  Relaford is actually hitting a little bit better in limited playing time in Richmond than he did in Augusta, but you have to think the Giants will return Relaford to a level where he can start every game as soon as the right opportunity presents itself.

You can find the stats for the all the 2013 Augusta GreenJackets here.

San Francisco Giants Minor League Update, Part III: A+ San Jose Giants

The San Jose Giants are the SF Giants’ best minor league club so far this year, and despite a rash of injuries are likely to remain so at least until their top pitchers start to get promoted.  The SJ Giants are currently 22-11 and in first place by half a game in the California League North Division.  The team has hitting and even better pitching, although some key arms are currently on the disabled list.

Right fielder Devin Harris is currently tied for the California League lead with ten HRs, and he’s tied for second with 27 RBIs.  Unfortunately, he’s also already 25 years old, which doesn’t make him much of a prospect at this level.

Same story for 2Bman Ryan Cavan.  He’s currently leading the California League with a .363 batting average, but he turns 26 in late June.

Catcher Jeff Arnold currently has a .394 on-base percentage and .932 OPS in 22 games.  He’s also 25 years old, but catchers generally get more opportunities to be late bloomers.  1Bman Miles Schroeder is hitting a very even .300/.400/.500, but he’s also 25 years old.

Among position players young enough to be prospects at this level, 23 year old SS Kelby Tomlinson is batting .328/.381/.379, but hasn’t played since April 27th due to a strained quadriceps muscle.  22 year old outfielder Mac Williamson, last year’s 3rd round Draft pick out of Wake Forest, is hitting .256/.331/.427, but has struck out 32 times in 117 at-bats.

23 year old left fielder Shawn Payne, who had a break-out season at Class A Augusta last year, has a .363 on-base percentage, but a slump over his last ten games has dropped his batting average to .252 and his slugging percentage to 309.  22 year old 1Bman Angel Villalona, in his first year back in the United States after late 2009 murder charges in the Dominican Republic, has six home runs and 13 extra base hits, but his on-base percentage is an awful .279 and he’s tied for the team lead in strike outs with Williamson.  23 year old center fielder Chris Lofton has a .337 OBP, but it’s doing much else with the bat.

The SJ Giants’ top prospects are pitchers, and it’s a good bet that the organization is starting so many minor league veterans like Harris, Cavan, Schroeder and Arnold in part to make winners out of their young pitchers.

At this moment the SJ Giants’ top prospect is probably 20 year old right-hander Clayton Blackburn.  He’s been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing nine runs, seven of them earned, in 11 innings pitched, which has raised his ERA to an even 3.00.  However, he’s allowed only 24 hits and six walks in 33 IP while striking out 42.  His ERA is relatively high because he’s allowed four home runs.

21 year old lefty Edwin Escobar has also seen his ERA jump about a run in his last two starts up to 3.04, but he’s struck out 38 batters in 26.2 innings pitched while allowing only 23 hits and six walks.  23 year old righty Christopher “Thousand Ships” Marlowe has a 1.73 ERA after five starts, but his ratios aren’t great.

20 year old righty Kyle Crick, whom I rated as the Giants’ best pitching prospect last November and second overall (MLB.com rated him as the Giants’ top overall prospect), had an 0.93 ERA after three starts.  However, he had a run average over 5.00 and was very wild, walking nine in 9.2 IP (but striking out 12).  Crick then strained an oblique muscle and hasn’t pitched since April 18th.

20 year old lefty and former Dominican bonus baby Adelberto Mejia also got off to a fairly good start this year, but he just went on the seven-day disabled list this past Tuesday with an as yet unreported injury.

22 year old lefty Ty Blach, who the Giants drafted in the fifth round out of Creighton University last June, is 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA.  In 33.2 IP, he’s allowed 40 hits but only three walks while striking out 24 batters.  You’d like to see more strikeouts and fewer hits allowed from a top pitching prospect at this level, but it’s at least clear that Blach has excellent command and may simply need to learn that he doesn’t need to give in to hitters when he’s behind in the count.

The San Jose Giants are using a six-man rotation this season, and with Kyle Crick hurt, right-hander Austin Fleet has made what would have been Crick’s last two starts.  Fleet currently has a 2.61 ERA with 23 Ks in 20.2 IP while allowing only 12 hits and six walks.  Unfortunately, Fleet is already 26 years old and should probably be pitching at AA Richmond where he spent most of the past two seasons.

The SJ Giants have plenty of good relievers too.  Big 24 year old lefty Josh Osich has a 1.13 ERA after 12 appearances with 19 Ks in 16 IP and a WHIP just under 1.00.  Even bigger 23 year old lefty Bryce Bandilla has struck out a very impressive 36 batters in only 21 innings pitched, but he’s also walked 12 and given up a couple of dingers to push his ERA over 4.00.

Righ-handers Luis Rojas and Hunter Strickland have also pitched well so far.  Rojas is 23 this season, and Strickland is 24.

You can find all of the 2013 San Jose Giants’ stats here.

So Much for Instant Replay

The big topic of conversation last night and today is the umpires completely blowing the replay review of Adam Rosales’ should-a-been home run in last night’s Indians-A’s game.  Here is the video from espn.com.

I don’t have a whole lot to add from what others have said/written.  Here’s a good article from Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated.  Still, it’s too big an issue not to say something about it.

Umpire Angel Hernandez, consistently ranked in anonymous player polls as one of the worst five or six umpires in MLB, claimed that the replays he saw on review were not conclusive.  MLB today said that the replay system in place allows the umpires on review to see all the replays from the at least two broadcasts of the game.  In other words, the umpires should have seen what everyone else in America could see — a ball that unmistakeably hit the railing well above the yellow home run line — a no-doubt-about-it (at least on replay) home run.

My gut feeling about this situation is that the umpiring crew essentially made a collective decision that they weren’t going to overturn the call on the field no matter what the replay showed, which is essentially what happens when an umpire blows a call not subject to replay.  Even if the umpire realizes he blew a ball/strike call or a safe/out call on the bases, he sticks with his initial/called decision, and at most only admits later after the game that he made a mistake. If this in fact is what happened, it completely defeats the purpose of having an instant replay system at all.

It remains to be seen what, if anything, MLB will do to compel umpires to get with the program, but one thing is obvious.  It is a huge black eye for MLB that even a call as obviously wrong as this one can’t be overturned in the very limited circumstances in which calls can be reviewed.  If umpires cannot be fully trusted that they are making their best efforts to make the right call or correct their mistakes when the rules specifically allow further review, it undermines the legitimacy of game outcomes.