Andrew Baggarly on the Giants

Here’s an article from Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News on what he thinks the Giants are thinking about this off-season.  He repeats the conventional wisdom that the Giants would like to bring Bengie Molina back on a one-year deal for not much more than the $6 million they paid him in 2009, but that Bengie is unlikely to sign with the Giants since he wants at least a two-year deal.

Frankly, I can’t see any chance of the Giants resigning Molina to a one-year deal.  The free agent pickings at catcher this off-season look awfully slim to me.  Most of these guys just can’t hit.  In fact, the available catchers look so bad with the bat, that the top three in 2010 look likely to be Miguel Olivo, who the Royals cut loose rather than picking up his $3.3 million option, Bengie, who will be 35 next year, and Gregg Zaun, who will be 39.   Molina is the only Type-A free agent catcher on the market.

Given the other options, I can’t imagine Bengie not getting at least one team to offer him at least $16 million over two years even if he costs the team that signs him a draft pick.  The upshot is that the Giants absolutely have to offer him arbitration, so they can get the two drafts picks.

Baggarly suggests the Giants will look to sign Pudge Rodriguez to a one year contract to back up and mentor Buster Posey.  This makes a lot of sense to me.  Aside from the fact that Baggarly says that the Giants have had some interest in Pudge for the last couple of years, the odds are good that the Giants could sign him to a one-year, low-base-high-incentive contract, given his age in 2010 (38) and his drop-off with the bat in 2009 (.664 OPS).  Given the other catchers on the market, the odds are good that Pudge will be one of the better hitters of the group, particularly if used in the right role.

Baggarly also writes that the Giants like Jason Bay better than Matt Holliday as a possible big-ticket free agent sign.  I do too, although I’m not sure my reasons for preferring Bay are entirely rational.  Holliday is represented by Scott Boras, which generally means that teams have to way overpay to get one of his free agents to sign.  Also, I’m not convinced that Holliday isn’t already well past his peak and can hit well over a full season away from the mile-high air of Colorado.  Not entirely rational, but my gut feeling is that I’d rather see the Giants over-pay Bay for five years than Holliday.

Baggarly also thinks the Giants won’t offer arbitration to any of Randy Winn, Bob Howry or Randy Johnson.  Well, duh!  They are all way overpaid for the performances they provided in 2009, and you can’t reasonably expect that any of them at their advanced ages are going to be any better in 2010.  Better to free up these salary slots and chase some other, younger players.

Still Adrift in KC

I was looking at Miguel Olivo’s numbers today, as one of the younger free agent catchers on the market this off-season (he’ll be 32 next year), and I’m frankly amazed that the Royals declined his 2010 mutual option for $3.3 million (he would also get the option to accept or decline the $3.3 million option).  Olivo’s no great shakes, but a half-way decent starting catcher for $3.3 million sounds like a bargain to me.

As a fan, Olivo is not a fun player to watch.  He strikes out an awful lot and won’t take a walk.  According to one post I saw today, he doesn’t look good on defense.  However, he does a few things well enough that the Royals probably should have picked up the option.

First, he hit 23 HRs in 390 ABs last year.  That’s lot for a catcher.  As a result, despite hitting only .249 and having a brutal (even for a catcher) .292 OBP, he had a .490 SLG and a .782 OPS, pretty good for a catcher.  On defense, his numbers look a lot better than John Buck, at least in terms of his ability to throw out baserunners and his team’s ERA when he’s catching.  The Royals’ ERA when Olivo was catching this year was 4.49, compared to 5.18 when Buck was catching.

Reports have it that the Royals aren’t going to keep John Buck around either, which makes sense given that Buck reportedly made $2.9 million in 2009 and would almost certainly make at least $3.3 million in 2010 if he were to elect arbitration.

If Buck is also non-tendered, that would leave Brayan Pena as the only remaining catcher who caught for the Royals in 2009.  He’ll be 28 next year.  He has limited experience and his minor league numbers don’t look particularly impressive, but he’s certainly cheap.

In the high minors (AA and AAA), the Royals have 3o year old J.R. House, who’s had some good minor league seasons, but was brutal as the Omaha Royals’ everyday catcher in 2009 (.649 OPS), and 28 year old Cody Clark, who hit well, mostly at AA Northwest Arkansas, but only managed to play 68 games last year.  Sure doesn’t look promising.

There will certainly be low-cost options for the Royals on the free agent market this off-season, but if they’re not willing to pay even $3 million for a catcher, they aren’t likely to get anyone who won’t be a liability if he starts more than fifty or sixty games.

Interesting Development in Angel Villalona Murder Case

Giants former super-prospect Angel Villalona has been released on bond as a result of a $139,000 settlement with the family of 25 year old victim Mario Felix de Jesus Velete.  Villalona signed for a $2.1 million bonus with the Giants in 2006.

After the settlement, the victim’s family asked the judge to dismiss the case.  However, the prosecutor says that he wants to go forward with the murder charge.  The upshot is that Villalona will be out of jail for two months while the prosecution prepares its case.

I know that the Dominican Republic is a poor country (Per capita gross domestic product was $8,200 in 2008 according the CIA Worldfact Book, and I’m sure that poor Dominicans make a lot less than that), but $139,000 sure seems like a small amount of money for a man’s life AND to get the family to agree to ask the judge to drop the prosecution, particularly when Villalona must have a good chunk of that $2.1 million signing bonus left.  It makes me wonder if there are facts we don’t yet know about.

Is it impossible for the family to bring a civil action for damages against Villalona in the Dominican Courts separate from the criminal charges?  (Think O.J. Simpson’s civil trial.)  Was de Jesus Velete a no-good thug who had it coming to him?  Hard to imagine a family that has lost a loved one agreeing to let the killer walk for a lousy $139,000 unless the deceased wasn’t particularly loved.

The story reminds me of the famous incident in the early 1970’s involving Astros star centerfielder Cesar Cedeno.  Houston manager Leo Durocher, who was certainly in a position to know, claimed that Cedeno could be the “next Willie Mays”.  Cesar really had that kind of talent, hitting .32o in consecutive seasons at age 21 and 22, hitting 25 and 26 HRs at age 22 and 23 (playing his home games in the notoriously pitcher-friendly Astrodome), and stealing between 50 and 61 bases in six consecutive seasons.  Cesar wasn’t too bright, however, and he never became Willie Mays.

Here’s a version of the shooting incident I found on the internet.  Cesar was apparently drinking and getting high with his girlfriend in a motel room in Santo Domingo, while his wife was in their home across town.  The girlfriend got a hold of his gun, and they struggled over it because she wouldn’t give it back.  His story was the gun went off and shot her in the head, which is what the police analysis seemed to confirm some time later (they concluded she was holding the gun last).  However, he fled the scene without calling the police and was briefly charged with the equivalent of second-degree murder.  He ended up paying a reported 100 Dominican Peso fine.

This incident happened in December, 1973, which was a little before my time, but I remember as a young fan in the late 1970’s or early 1980’s, that if you really wanted to get under Cesar’s skin, you shouted out “MURDERER!” or “WHO ARE YOU GONNA KILL NEXT?” when he came up to bat.  I never did, of course, but I distinctly remember hearing that on at least one occasion Cesar went up into the stands after a fan who did.

Phillies Decline Pedro Feliz’s 2010 Option

Giants fans may be interested to know that the Phillies just declined Pedro “Swing-Happy Pete” Feliz’s 2010 option for $5.5 million.  It looks to me that the decision must have been a close one, because Feliz, for better or worse, was an integral part of the Phillies’ 2008 and 2009 World Championship and NL Championship teams.

The Phillies could certainly affored to pony up $5.5 million for a starting thirdbaseman.  The best reason not to is that Pedro’s hitting was terrible in 2009 (.308 OBP, .694 OPS), and at age 35 in 2010, his offensive numbers are likely to be even worse next year.

On the other hand, Pedro’s defense was stellar in 2009.  Fangraphs gives him a UZR/150 of 5.0, which ranks him middle of the pack for NL 3Bmen who played regularly enough to qualify.  However, with a league-leading 35 double plays,  a 4th-best .966 fielding percentage, and 3rd-best 2.83 chances per nine innings, I think he was better with the glove at third last year than UZR gives him credit for.

I suspect that Pedro’s defense would continue to be good in 2010, if he can hit enough to play regularly.

One thing is for certain, however.  Once again, despite the talk of how important defense is and how much teams now recognize the importance of defense, teams still by and large make decisions like this one largely on what the player does on offense.  Once a 3Bman’s OPS falls below .700, the team will start looking for a better hitter, no matter how well their current 3Bman handles the leather.

Closing Comments

The Twins did, indeed, pick up Michael Cuddyer’s $10.5 million 2010 option.  The Twins had to make a decision within five days of the end of the World Series, which explains the timing of the J. J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez trade.  One thing to say for the Twins, they always seem to have a clear idea what they’re doing.

[11/8/09: Actually, Cuddyer's $10.5 million option the Twins picked up is for 2011, not 2010.  Cuddyer is due $8.5 million in 2010.  Sorry for the error; I simply didn't read the stories closely enough and assumed the option for was 2010.  Exercising Cuddyer's option for 2011 is a much more questionable decision.  Cuddyer will be 32 in 2011, and he's due for a big drop-off in performance by then.  Rob Neyer doesn't like the move at all. ]

Meanwhile, acquiring Carlos Gomez almost certainly means the Brewers will let Mike Cameron leave this off-season.  Cameron will be 37 in 2010, but he quietly had a pretty terrific 2009.  He doesn’t hit for average, and he strikes out a lot, but he does some things you have to love from a centerfielder.  He hits with power, he’ll take a walk, and he’s still a surprisingly good defensive centerfielder for a man his age.  I don’t entirely trust Fangraphs’ UZR ratings, for reasons I will someday discuss in a separate post, but they say Cameron was a better than average CF the last two seasons (UZR/150’s of 15.6 and 10.3).

[However, according to UZR/150, Cameron had a -10.4, way below average, in 2007.  Now, a player can have a bad year with the glove, just as he can with the bat.  However, I suspect that defense tends to be more consistent, because you don't have the pitcher/hitter adjustments that are constantly going on.  Also, UZR and UZR/150 seem to have these pretty dramatic swings fairly often.]  In 2009, Cameron made 2.9 plays in center per nine innings played, which is very good.

Cameron is very much a Darrell Evans-type player: low average, a lot of strikeouts, power, good walk totals, and good glove.  Evans had more power and drew more walks than Cameron, but Cameron plays a more important defensive position.  These guys have traditionally been under-valued by major league teams, although not nearly as much as they were in Darrell Evans’ day, now that everyone recognizes the importance of OPS as an accurate reflection of offensive ability or utility.

The upshot is that the Brewers will save some money playing Gomez in center in 2010, won’t lose anything on defense, but will sure take a hit to their lineup.

Meanwhile, everything is right in Japanese Baseball.  Aside from Hideki Matsui winning the World Series MVP, the Yomiuri Giants won the Japan Series, beating the Nippon Ham Fighters in six games.  This is the first Giants’ Japan Series title in seven years, and since something like 40% of all Japanese baseball fans root for Yomiuri, a lot of Japanese baseball fans are very happy right now.

Stove Heating Up in the Midwest

The Twins made me look prescient by acquiring J. J. Hardy from the Brewers for CF Carlos Gomez today.  Also, the Royals traded Mark Teahen to the White Sox for two warm bodies.

The Twins’ acquisition of Hardy makes sense to me.  Carlos Gomez is a terrific defensive centerfielder, much better in that regard than Denard Span, now the Twins’ likely 2010 centerfielder.  However, Gomez is not yet a major league hitter, and Span is.

Gomez will be only 24 next year, so there’s still time for him to learn how to hit.  I’m sure that’s what the Brewers are hoping.  The Twins, however, are trying to win now, what with moving into their new Stadium in 2010, and I think Hardy gives them a better chance of doing that.

Also, the Twins had a glut of outfielders, and I think I like Delmon Young, who will also be 24 next year, more than Gomez going forward.  Young can hit, but the one thing that concerns me about his ever becoming a big star is his lack of plate discipline (74 walks drawn after 1,741 career major league at-bats).  He hasn’t gotten any better in this regard after three seasons, walking only 12 times in 395 ABs in 2009.

The Twins’ decision to trade Gomez probably means they intend to exercise Michael Cuddyer’s $10.5 million 2010 option.  Cuddyer had a fine year in ‘09, and now the Twins don’t have a lot of other good options to play right field.

The Royals’ decision to trade Mark Teahen to the White Sox for Chris Getz and Josh Fields doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.  Teahen is no great shakes, but he’s an adequate major league starting 3Bman who can play a lot of different positions.  Meanwhile, neither Getz nor Fields impresses me much.

Getz is a 2Bman who is already 26 years old and has only 382 career major league at-bats (with a feeble .669 OPS) to date.  With the Royals having found diamond-in-the-rough Alberto Callaspo to play second and just trading for Yuniesky Betancourt to play short, I don’t really see why they’d trade for Getz.  In fairness to Getz, however, he would probably be every bit as good a bet for the Royals at shortstop in 2010 as Betancourt, who really shouldn’t be starting anywhere at the major league level.

Josh Fields was once (exactly two years ago) a real prospect, but his career has gone straight down since then.  He was the 18th player selected in the 2004 Draft, and he hit 23 HRs for the White Sox in 373 ABs in 2007 at age 24, good for a .480 slugging percentage that year.

However, he hit poorly at AAA in 2008 and poorly for the White Sox in 239 ABs this year (.648 OPS).  At age 27 in 2010, he’s just not much of a prospect any more.

I don’t see how a bad team like the Royals gets better trading for players like Chris Getz and Josh Fields unless they get very, very lucky.

Some Teams Don’t Waste Time

I love the period of wheeling and dealing that comes immediately after the World Series ends and lasts until about a week before Christmas.  The Angels just resigned Bobby Abreu for a two-year deal at a reported $19 million, and the Red Sox traded a couple of prospects to the Marlins for Jeremy Hermida.

I like the Abreu signing for all concerned.  Abreu won’t be going to bed hungry any time soon, and the Angels can certainly afford $19 million over two seasons for a player, who isn’t what he once was, but still has a lot to offer on offense.  Abreu will be 36 and 37 the next two seasons, and he’s long past his peak.  However, he’s been remarkably consistent the last three seasons, and he still runs well, which is particularly valuable for the type of player he is: a guy who gets on base.

Abreu’s on-base percentages the last three seasons have been .369, .371 and .390.  He’s stolen 77 bases in 104 attempts, a 74% success rate, and excellent for a player in his mid-30’s.  Getting on base and runnning well have resulted in an average of 106 runs scored per season over the last three seasons.  The runs totals have dropped from 123 in 2007 to 96 in 2009 and his games played have dropped from 158 in 2007 to 152 in 2009, but the drop-offs are so relatively small that you have to figure he’s still a good bet for 2010 and 2011.

A player who gets on base and runs well is just enormously valuable as a top-of-the-lineup hitter.  There aren’t many teams in baseball, if any, with two number-one and -two hitters as good as Bobby Abreu has been the last three seasons.

The Red Sox’s thinking in obtaining Jeremy Hermida is obvious.  They are getting a player with great tools, who, after three years (albeit somewhat disappointing) as a major league regular, is due for a big step up in performance in 2010 through 2012 at age 26 through 28.  That’s a good bet to make, particularly when the young player has a relatively respectable career .344 OBP  and some power (48 HRs over the last three season) so far.  The AL is the tougher league, but Hermida will be moving from a pitchers’ park in Miami to a hitters’ park in Boston.

In fact, except for the fact that the Marlins are involved, it’s surprising how little the BoSox gave up in return.  Hunter Jones is a left-handed reliever, who at the same age as Hermida, has not yet established himself as a legitimate major league player.  My guess is that he’ll have a successful career as a major league left-handed short-man, but these guys aren’t worth a major league regular.  20 year old lefty Jose Alvarez has a good arm, but has never pitched above A+ ball and his strikeouts-to-IP ratio is underwhelming given the level of competition he’s faced.

This is the kind of deal that makes sense only because the Marlins are involved.  They don’t want to pay Hermida arbitration money for the level of performance he’s given them so far in his major league career.  Needless to say, a smart, wealthy team like the Red Sox can swoop in and get a player with enormous up-side at a cost that is extremely reasonable for a top-eight-in-wealth team.  Red Sox fans should love this gamble as the odds are definitely favorable.

Reefer Madness

Giants ace Tim Lincecum got nailed for possession of 3.3 grams of marijuana in his home state of Washington on October 30th after getting pulled over for doing 74 mph in a 60 mph zone (they must have some strict cops in suburban Seattle).  He faces a $622 fine and damage to his reputation as a sports hero to the young and impressionable.

A few years, I would have felt conflicted about Tim Terrific getting caught for pot possession.  I have believed that marijuana should be legalized since the 1980’s, but at the same time I have also felt that professional athletes, who get paid a ton of money and have a certain duty to the industry that makes them enormously wealthy, should lay off of the pot at least until after they retire.  They get paid so much money, they should really do without something they don’t necessarily need in the first place.

Now that times have changed, and pot is practically legal in Northern California, I don’t feel particularly conflicted about it at all.  As someone of my years and  and experience, I’m not the least bit surprised that Tim is a midnight toker, as Steve Miller once famously sang.  Hell, anyone could have looked at Tim’s long hair and the Seattle grunge look he maintains assiduously when not in uniform and guessed that he likes to get baked when circumstances permit.

As for his impact on impressionable youth, that’s a lot of hog-wash.  The youth of America are probably better off learning that smoking the occasional dube doesn’t make you a monster, at least no more so than having a couple of beers or glasses of wine at the end of the day.  America’s prisons are full of pot dealers at a cost of approximately $35,000 per prisoner per year, not to mention the other costs of the Drug War, all of which have done absolutely nothing to reduce pot consumption.

I also don’t buy the argument that pot is a gate-way to harder drugs, at least not any more so than alcohol or cigarettes.  The federal government tried prohibition of alcoholic beverages for 14 years from 1919 to 1933, and it was a miserable failure.  Sure, it reduced consumption of alcoholic beverages, but it caused an enormous rise in organized crime and the extreme violence that comes with organized crime.  It also turned millions of Americans, who were otherwise generally law-abiding, into criminals.  It created enormous disrespect for the rule of law, as heavy-handed, stupid laws will tend to do.

In fact, America’s drug laws are so ass-backwards that marijuana is treated under federal law as a more dangerous (Schedule 1) drug than methamphetamine, cocaine, morphine and even more powerful pharmaceutical opiates like OxiContin (Schedule 2), which have recognized (or at least acknowledged) medical uses.  Don’t take my word for it — here is a DEA webpage.

Now that I’ve railed against the stupidity of U.S. drug policy, let’s get back to baseball.  I don’t care that Tim Lincecum likes to smoke pot.  However, he’s just given Brian Sabean some leverage as he tries to negotiate an extension up through the year Lincecum becomes a free agent.  My guess is that the drug bust will cost Lincecum more than 100 times the $622 fine he faces in terms of the likely three-year contract he signs this off-season.  Think about that, boys and girls.

Yankees Close It Out

The Bronx Bombers lived up to their name and closed out the World Series in six games, scoring seven runs in Game 6 and getting enough pitching from their tired starters to get leads to their bullpen.

While I’m never particularly thrilled about the Yankees winning yet another World Series, I can certainly live with it when it only happens once every nine years.  Also, the Yankees really did have a great team this year and a lot of great stars.  It’s not entirely disappointing to see some of the big stars from the 1996-2000 period win one last World Series to put a cap on their careers and this era of Yankees.

I thought the Yankees were asking for trouble going with a three-man rotation, but they made it work, mainly because the Yankees scored 28 runs in the last four games, and never fewer than six in any of those games.  There’s no substitute for the bats getting hot at the right time.

I was also pleased to see Hideki Matsui have a great Game 6 and win the World Series MVP award.  I’ve liked Matsui ever since he decided to leave Japan, where he was an enormous star, to see if he could play with the World’s best in MLB.  He’s been a very good, but not great, player in the U.S., taking all elements of his game into account, but he’s a dignified player and real professional.

I wonder what World Series viewership was like in Japan.  Now that Japanese players (at least one or two) have been in the World Series more often than not in recent years, are Japanese fans giving new attention to the U.S. World Series.  One would certainly think that Japanese fans would have wanted to see Matsui’s performance in last night’s game or Dice-K’s start in Game 3 of the 2007 World Series.

Let’s Go, Geezers

The San Francisco Geezers — I mean Giants — just re-signed 2Bman Freddie Sanchez for two years at a reported total of $12 million.  Well, the price isn’t bad, but it sure looks like Sanchez is already well into the decline phase of his career.

Freddie had his career year (I’ll give 10-to-1 odds on it) in 2006 at age 28, when he hit .344 and had a .851 OPS.  His OPS numbers the last three years have been .785, .669 and .742.  His games-played since 2006 have been 157, 147, 145 and 111.  He’s 32 in 2010.

The long and the short of it is that the odds of Freddie’s having two consecutive seasons in 2010 and 2011 in which he is a better than average (or even an average) NL starting 2Bman are extremely slim.  In fact, the odds are probably between 25% and 40% that the Giants will have the worst double-play combination (SS and 2B), dollar-for-dollar, of any team in the NL in 2010.  In a 16 team league, that’s not good.

One thing’s for certain.  The Sanchez signing does nothing to improve the Giants’ two biggest weaknesses on offense: the inability to get on base and the inability to hit for power.  In his five seasons as a major league regular, Sanchez has averaged fewer than 27 walks and 8 HRs in 533 ABs per season.  Yeesh!

Since the Giants are now set with Sanchez at 2B in 2010 and 2011, I fully expect Brian Sabean to make a run at being the General Manager who gets the honor of overpaying Jason Bay on a five-year contract.  At least Bay would provide some punch for the Gints in 2010 and 2011.