Archive for the ‘Milwaukee Brewers’ category

Sometimes It’s Better to Be a Big Fish in a Small Pond

November 5, 2017

Than it is to be a small fish in big pond.

Both Wilin Rosario and Roger Bernadina, after big seasons in South Korea’s KBO, are making noises about wanting to return to MLB in 2018.  I think the odds are slim of either of them getting an MLB deal that matches what they can expect to make in Asia.

Wilin Rosario, who will be 29 next season, has the better chance, but he still doesn’t get on base enough to suggest he would be good enough to start regularly in MLB.  Meanwhile, he made $1.8 million in the KBO this past season and can reasonably expect to make $2 million in 2018.

Also, both the Yomiuri Giants and Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s NPB are reported to be interested in Rosario, which could well mean a two-year offer in the $4M to $5M range total.  That’s MLB money, any way you slice it.

Roger Bernadina will be 34 next season and hasn’t played in the Show since 2014.  It’s hard to see an MLB team giving him a guaranteed offer based on one good season in the KBO, an extreme hitters’ league.

Meanwhile, the Kia Tigers paid Bernadina a reported $850,000 in 2017 (plus a presumed post-season share). With the Tigers just winning the Korea Series, it seems likely Bernadina will command a 2018 contract in the $1.2M to $1.5M range.

The rumors are getting attention mainly because of the possibility that teams are looking for the next Eric Thames. However, Thames hit much better in the KBO than either Rosario and Bernadina.  Thames’ lowest OPS in three seasons in the KBO was 1.106; neither Rosario nor Bernadina has reached 1.100 in any of their combined three seasons.  Basically, Eric Thames’ KBO numbers are what it’s going to take for a player coming to MLB to have a reasonable shot of being an everyday MLB player.

Of course, what could be going on is that Rosario and Bernadina and their agents may simply be trying to create pressure on Asian teams to generate the best possible offers from their current KBO teams and any NPB team that might be interested.  I think Rosario has a great shot of moving up to NPB, which is certainly more “major league” than the KBO, but I can’t really see anyone giving Bernadina a better offer than he’s likely to get from his current employers.  He’s proven his value to the Kia Tigers, and everything else seems like a total crap shoot.

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Will Chris Carter Be Playing in East Asia Next Year?

October 17, 2017

Chris Carter popped into my mind today, possibly having something to do with the Yankees hitting two three-run homers in today’s play-off game.  He has sure fallen a long way since leading the National League in home runs in 2016.  Now he’s just a soon-to-be 31 year old, lead-footed slugger looking for a major league offer.

After the Yankees released him, the Oakland A’s signed him and sent him to AAA Nashville.  He hit pretty well there in 36 games, slashing .252/.357/.512, but he didn’t get a September call-up even though it only would have cost the A’s a pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary.  The A’s instead elected to promote Mark Canha, who is two years younger and can also play the corner outfield positions.

He should be a free agent again this winter, since he’s still between four and five seasons of MLB experience, and the A’s surely won’t offer him salary arbitration.  It’s hard to see him getting a guaranteed MLB contract for 2018.

There was talk last off-season about the possibility of a Japanese team signing Carter when he wasn’t immediately able to find an MLB offer to his liking.  Carter would certainly command a $2 million offer from a South Korean KBO team, with maybe a quarter to half of that amount guaranteed; or a guaranteed contract in a similar amount, maybe $2.5M, from an NPB team.

It’s a fun exercise imagining how many home runs Carter might hit in the smaller ballparks of East Asian against a lower level of pitching.  If he’s healthy, I would expect him to be a threat for 60 HRs in the KBO and 50+ in NPB.

His odds of success are much greater in KBO, because NPB is not an easy place for foreign hitters to hit for average, and Carter is already highly challenged in that department.  Still, Japhet Amador was able to stick around all season for the Rakuten Golden Eagles based on only one skill (power), although Amador only cost the Golden Eagles $290,000, and the Eagles probably have some sunken costs in buying Amador’s rights from his old Mexican League team in 2016.

If an NPB team guarantees Carter $2M+, they’ll certainly give him time to adapt to Japanese baseball, before giving up on him.  Also, a big year in Japan could possibly earn him a ticket back to MLB’s prime-time.

The fact that Carter was reported to be seriously considering playing in Japan until the Yankees came up with their $3.5M offer means it’s whole lot more likely that Carter might actually cross the ocean in 2018.  He certainly won’t be seeing an $3.5M MLB offers this off-season.

 

Milwaukee Brewers Make Nice Little Move Claiming Stephen Vogt

June 25, 2017

The Brewers were the only team to put a waiver claim in on Stephen Vogt, so it looks like they will get their man.  Vogt has about $1.5 million more coming to him on his $2.95 million 2017 contract, so it’s a very affordable half season rental for the first place Brewers, with what amounts to two salary arbitration options for 2018 and 2019.

Vogt may very well start hitting again playing his home games in Milwaukee in the heat of the summer, rather than in Oakland.

I love seeing small market teams doing more with less.  I strongly suspect that a lot of teams don’t scan the waiver wire carefully or regularly unless they are actively looking for an upgrade somewhere.  In Vogt’s case, the A’s decision to designate him for assignment was national news because Vogt made the All-Star team the last two seasons and had a very affordable contract.

If no one had claimed Vogt on waivers, Vogt would almost certainly have exercised his right to free agency.  Then, any team could have signed him for the pro-rated major league minimum.  Essentially, the Brewers committed $1.25 million by claiming Vogt in order to guarantee that they’d be the team to get him after he left the A’s.

By claiming Vogt and sending Jet Bandy back to AAA, the Brewers get a true platoon at catcher, and since Bandy still had an option left, the Brewers lose nothing by taking a chance on Vogt except the $1.5 million remaining on Vogt’s contract.  That sure seems like a small price for a player who could be a valuable piece as the Brewers try to make their first post-season since 2011.  Well done, Milwaukee!

Midwest Revival

June 5, 2017

It’s June 5th, and the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers are both still in 1st place in their respective divisions.  The Twins and Brewers have never both made the post-season in the same year, so I wouldn’t exactly get my hopes up that this will finally be the year, particularly with neither team much over .500 or more than one game ahead of the second place team.  Nevertheless, it’s good to see both teams back in the hunt after a string of not-so-successful seasons.

The Twins seem to be owing their success to Miguel Sano‘s and Max Kepler‘s breakout seasons and a strong bullpen.  The emergence of rookie hurlers Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia should certainly give Twin Cities’ fans hope that the Twinkies will continue to compete throughout the summer.  Remember the old adage, though: young pitchers will break your heart.

Obviously, Eric Thames is the big story this year in Milwaukee, but the Brute Crew is also getting strong offensive performances from Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana and their bench.

The Brewers starting rotation has been solid, and while the bullpen has been inconsistent, Corey Knebel‘s breakout has given the team an effective closer.  If Nefali Perez can get his act together or an effective set-up man can be obtained by trade, the Brewers might have enough to hang with the Cubs or Cardinals when either of the latter two teams finally puts it together and makes a run.

Self Confidence

May 16, 2017

One thing I’ve wondered about for some time is the role that self confidence plays in major league performance.

Baseball is definitely not the realm of touchy-feely psychological stuff, but I have come to believe strongly that self-confidence is an as yet unmeasured, or at least under-measured, consideration that needs more consideration.

People with a long-term understanding of MLB baseball generally know a couple of things: (1) good teams are better at developing players than bad teams because players progress better in a winning environment than a losing environment; and (2) it is easier to develop hitters in hitters’ parks and it is easier to develop pitchers in pitchers’ parks, than the opposite. I haven’t done the research (someone should), but I think the research would show the above two claims are objectively true.

Some of this is personal.  I was a pipsqueak as a kid, but I could play ball, at least until the bases were moved out to 90 feet and the pitchers began pitching off a mound and occasionally throwing curveballs before my growth spurt arrived.  I had a great deal of confidence at the smaller sizes, and I was a star, but when the distances got bigger and I didn’t, I lost my confidence.  The drop in my subsequent offensive performance was greater than the objective changes, I believe, because I lost the confidence I once had had.

Does Eric Thames‘ 2017 performance (s0 far) have something to do with the fact that he was an under-performing MLB prospect, who went to South Korea’s KBO, made a few adjustments, and found that he was a tremendous hitter in a less talented, extreme hitters’ league?  I definitely think so.

Thames built up a lot of confidence in his abilities in his three KBO seasons.  He returned to MLB older, wiser and with a sense that he really had what it took to perform in MLB, plus the ability to make adjustments and the maturity to deal with slumps without giving up on his fundamentally sound approach and his sense of self confidence.

Again, I have not done the comprehensive research to prove my claim — however. my limited investigations suggest that major league regular batters playing their home games in extreme hitters’ parks like Coors Field and the Ball Park at Arlington hit better on the road than they have before because of the confidence they get from their artificially elevated home park performances.

As a San Francisco Giants fan, I think the same is true for pitchers who pitch their home games in an extreme pitchers’ parks.  Even professionals perform better when their performance is rewarded by playing in highly favorable conditions half of the time, in part because the level of MLB play is so high that slight advantages in playing conditions can have out-sized effects.  Putting a prospect in the best possible circumstances to succeed seems to be the best way to bring about that result.

The A’s Santiago Casilla is perhaps a case in point.  He has always been a power pitcher.  With the A’s early in his career, he didn’t live up to his arm strength.  He was traded to the Giants, in a league that at the time wasn’t quite as talented and was generally a more fastball, power slider league.  He developed at an advanced age and under the right circumstances into a star.  He has now returned to the Junior Circuit, older and wiser (and against a league that hasn’t seen him pitch regularly for years), and he’s been a better pitcher for the A’s in his age 36 season (at least until his last appearance on May 12th, when he got hammered) than he was in any of his age 26 through 28 seasons.

This is a topic that is worth further investigation.  Unfortunately, I am both too lazy and too busy to do the research myself.  Hey, this is a great research topic for anyone willing to take it on.

If my hypothesis is correct, teams playing in extreme hitters parks should focus on drafting and developing hitters, and vice versa.  These teams should seek to trade for or sign free agents veteran pitchers, whose talents match the hitters’ parks they’ll have to pitch in (generally ground ball pitchers who throw strikes) and have developed a level of confidence that won’t be easily shaken by the hitters’ parks they will now be pitching their home games in.  And vice versa.

There has already been speculation that the Yankees, with their short home right field porch, should be a potential landing spot for Brandon Belt, if (and when) the Giants are sellers at the trade deadline.  It could indeed be a match made in post-season heaven.

Eric Thames’ Hot Start

April 27, 2017

I’m not entirely surprised by Eric Thames‘ hot 2017 start.  He really was good three years in a row in South Korea’s KBO, finishing 3rd, 1st and 2nd in OPS those years.

Thames obviously isn’t going to keep hitting in MLB better than he hit in the KBO.  The National League’s pitchers don’t have a book on Thames yet, and they’re finding out that even after three years in KBO, Thames can still hit MLB heat.  They will eventually figure out what they have to throw him and set him up for, and then it will be Thames’ turn to make adjustments.

In the video I’ve seen of Thames’ home runs so far this year his swing is very short, fast to the ball yet not rushed.  He’s strong enough he doesn’t need to wind up to generate bat speed.  It’s a very comfortable, confident swing.

Thames is being duly tested for PEDs, but he shows nothing but confidence about the results.  Obviously, PEDs could be a reason of Thames’ dramatic improvement.

However, Thames was younger and more talented than most of the players who head to East Asia for major league money.  He also went to an extreme hitters’ league that’s only a little better than AAA, which would be a great place for a hitter to develop confidence in his abilities.  It’s a lot easier to develop major league hitters in Denver than it is in either Seattle or San Diego.

Thames’ story is that while KBO pitchers don’t throw as hard, typically topping out at 91 or 92 mph, they throw a lot more breaking balls than MLB pitchers.  He says he had to become better at plate discipline than he’d been in America in order to lay off breaking balls out of the strike zone.

It certainly is apparent that after walking only 52 times in his 769 plate appearances in his major league seasons in 2012-2013 and 58 times in 514 plate appearances in his first KBO season, Thames has drawn 191 walks in 1,209 plate appearances since the start of the 2015 season.

Obviously, getting better at laying off bad pitches is a recipe for being able to put more good swings on the ball.  It also isn’t particularly unusual for a player with power to begin with to still be improving his power hitting through his age 30 season.

Thames has also said that he might not have made that improvement if he hadn’t made the jump to South Korea, stating words to the effect that if he’d stayed in the States, he might have not made the changes because it would have been easier to just keep doing what he had been doing.

I’d like to see more players in the future jump to Japan’s NPB or South Korea’s KBO and then back to MLB if they foreign performance merits it.  It is, in fact, becoming more common, although it’s also limited by the fact that the vast majority of the 4-A players who go to NPB or KBO simply aren’t going to blossom like an Eric Thames or Colby Lewis.

Baltimore Orioles Shuffle Pitchers on their 40-man Roster

April 15, 2017

The Baltimore Orioles made a flurry of moves today, mostly involving minor league pitchers and international draft slots.  It seems clear that the Orioles are making a calculated gamble that the best 16 and 17 year old Latin American players aren’t worth the risk.

The O’s obtained Damien Magnifico from the Brewers and Paul Fry from the Mariners for respectively, the 15th overall international draft slot (worth $885,000) and the 105th international draft slot worth $198,000.  Meanwhile, Baltimore designated Jason Garcia and Parker Bridwell for assignment and traded Oliver Drake to the Brewers for cash or the infamous player to be named later.  Phew, that’s a busy day!

I suspect that, while the Magnifico and Drake deals were announced separatedly one day apart, they are closely connected.

Ben Badler criticized the Orioles yesterday for not spending more money on international players the last few years.  The O’s have spent only $260,000 on five prospects in the 2016-2017 signing period, one of whom received $150,000.  According to Badler, the most expensive Orioles international signing of the last three years is the mere $350,000 given to 3Bman Jomar Reyes, who at least looks like a good return on that money so far.

I have to agree with Badler: it might have made sense not to take a high risk, high reward strategy in recent years when signing bonuses were high for the best players, as at least five or six teams flouted the rules each signing period and elected to sign as many good players for as much money as it took in exchange for losing big money signings for the next year or two.  But now that there is effectively a draft with capped bonus pools, it seems crazy to me not to participate fully.

The Orioles have obviously decided they are still going to go with players closer to the majors than tender-aged international prospects, as they have now traded away what would be their 1st and 4th round international picks in the first international draft.

Looking at what the Orioles netted today, it seems highly likely that they’d have been better off with the two international slots.  Magnifico and Fry are obvious improvements over the two pitchers designated for assignment to make space on the 40-man roster.  Both look to have major league stuff as bullpen pitchers, are still looking for their command, and are young enough they may yet find it.

However, Oliver Drakes, although already 30, has even better stuff than Magnifico or Fry, and has the same command issues.  Drake may yet be as effective a major league reliever as either Magnifico or Fry going forward, despite a a poor start (in only three AAA relief appearances) this year.

This doesn’t look like a worthy trade for 1st and 4th round international slots, unless the aforementioned player to be named later turns out to be great.