Archive for the ‘New York Yankees’ category

MLB and KBO Agree on New Posting System

July 13, 2018

MLB has reached an agreement on a new posting system regime with South Korea’s KBO.  The new system provides that KBO players who are posted get to sign with any MLB team they choose, which in practical effect will mean for the highest bidder 90% of the time, with the former KBO team getting a percentage of the contract amount as follows.

For the first $25M guarantee of the contract, the former KBO team gets 20%.  For the next $25M guarantee, the KBO team gets 17.5%.  For any guaranteed amount above the first $50M, the KBO team gets 15%.

The upshot is that on a contract that guarantees the South Korean player $100M, his former KBO team would receive $16.875M.  When Hyun-jin Ryu signed with the Dodgers, his former KBO team, the Hanwha Eagles, received 71.5% of the contracted amount (a $25M+ posting fee compared to Ryu’s $36M guarantee over six seasons.)  The new regime obviously means the player will get a far larger percentage of his true value to the top MLB bidder.

The next Ryu Hyun-jin will cost well more than a $61M+ layout, but it’s anyone’s guess when the next Ryu will come along.  KBO teams aren’t going to make a great deal of money posting their biggest stars on any kind of a regular basis under the new system, but $16.875M is still a lot of money to a KBO team when that $100M player finally comes along.

Two years ago, I proposed an adjustment to the Japanese NPB posting regime, which while different from the one just adopted above, was designed to accomplish the same thing: getting Asian teams to post their best players sooner in order to receive a bigger payout.

If a KBO team has a MLB-caliber player which it posts in the off-season before the player’s age 27 season, that player will command a far higher MLB guaranteed contract than the same player posted when he’s a year short of the nine full seasons it takes to become a KBO (or NPB) true free agent.  That means, under the new posting regime, the KBO team makes a lot more money posting the player a year or three sooner than they absolutely have to.

The same kind of regime would work for NPB postings, except that the percentages the NPB team would receive would have to be higher (maybe 33%, 25% and 20%), because the best NPB players are worth more money to their NPB teams than the best KBO players are worth to their KBO teams, given the difference in league revenue streams.  If MLB teams try to squeeze NPB teams too much, there is simply much less reason for an NPB team to post its best players until it absolutely has too (the off-season before the off-season in which the player is a true free agent).

In fact, I think my proposal is better if the goal is to get NPB teams to post superstars a year or three early, since it directly ties NPB team compensation to earlier posting.  The benefit to the new MLB-KBO regime is that it could mean big money for the next NPB team to develop the next Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka or Shohei Ohtani who commands a contract well in excess of a $100M guarantee.

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Aaron Judge Is a Rock Star

June 29, 2018

Tonight I saw the video of Aaron Judge playing catch with a young fan, and I was blown away.  In the greater scheme of things it’s such a minor thing for a major league star to play catch for 30 or 40 seconds with a young fan, but it means so much.

The kid will never forget that moment, nor will any of the fans in the bleachers who saw the two playing catch.  All the fans want to see is that the players who are making millions still are human beings who want to interact with them and appreciate the fact that the fans ultimately are the ones who have made them rich and famous.

MLB attendance so far is down this year by 6.5% according to Forbes.  (I wouldn’t necessarily expect great baseball articles from Forbes, but their writer Maury Brown consistently writes some great articles about the business side of the game.)  I feel strongly that attendance wouldn’t be down if more players showed the kind of heart that Judge did in this video.  I kind of wonder if Judge isn’t a bit more mature and appreciative of his current situation because he didn’t become Rookie of the Year until he was 25.

So give the love, and get the love.  One Love, as the Rastafarians say. It’s not all that complicated.  Do something that gives back for 30 or 40 seconds when you have the time to kill, and you can earn all the riches that come with your special and highly valued skill.  If Aaron Judge did what he did as a spur of the moment act of kindness and interaction, he deserves all that he will get from the game.

 

Aaron Judge Strikes Out Eight Times in Double-Header

June 5, 2018

Aaron Judge set a record today that may stand for a very long time, striking out eight times in a double-header.  That is the most since records have been kept (1910 in NL; 1913 in AL); and with as few double-headers as are played today, it could well last just as long.

Judge’s new record is the flip side of Stan Musial/Nate Colbert record of five homeruns in a double header.  Nate Colbert was from St. Louis and claimed to have attended as a kid the double-header in which Stan Musial set the record that Nate Colbert, the man, later equaled.

Don’t know if the claim is true, but it’s a great story.  Colbert would have been eight years old on the day that Musial did it, so it’s at least possible.

Takashi Toritani’s Consecutive Games Streak Ends at 1,939

June 2, 2018

Takashi Toritani, one of the best Japanese players of this generation who did not attempt an MLB career, had his consecutive games streak end a couple of days ago at 1,939.  It was the second longest in NPB history after only Sachio Kinugasa‘s 2,215 game streak.

By comparison, Cal Ripken played in 2,632 consecutive games and Lou Gehrig in 2,130.  NPB seasons are shorter, at 143 games a season currently and 130 games a season in Kinugasa’s time, so Kinugasa and Toritani had to stay healthy at least as long as Ripken and Gehrig.

Kinugasa’s and Ripken’s career batting numbers are pretty similar, although Kinugasa played 3B, while Ripken was, of course, a shortstop.

Top Prospects in the Atlantic League So Far

May 18, 2018

Courtney Hawkins is almost certainly the best prospect in the Atlantic League so far this season.  He’s currently tied for the league lead with five home runs.

The main thing to like about Hawkins is his age.  He’s only 24 this season, in league in which all the top hitters in terms of OPS are at least 27.

Hawkins had a strong year in A+ ball at the age of 20 in 2014 when he slugged 19 dingers and slashed .249/.331/.450.  However, a 3-for-25 start to his 2018 season in his fourth season at the AA level, and he’s playing in the Atlantic League now.

Hawkins’ OPS is only .788, so he needs more time in Sugar Land, Texas. At age 24, he’s definitely still young enough that MLB teams will want to sign him once some players get hurt at the A+ or AA level.

Kyle Kubitza, Johnny Bladel, David Washington and Mike Fransoso are all young enough at age 27 that they will be signed by MLB organizations if they keep hitting the way they have so far. Kubitza and Washington both have limited major league experience which will certainly increase the likelihood of their being signed by a new MLB organization.

Rey Navarro played in only three Atlantic League games before the Yankees signed him a couple of days ago and sent him to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, after a 4-for-27 start for the Mariners’ AAA team in Tacoma.  He’s 28 this year.

Bennett Parry is the youngest pitching prospect I could find.  He’s 26 and leading the Atlantic League with 23 strikeouts (in 17 innings pitched with a 3.17 ERA after three starts).  However, the Dodgers have just signed Logan Bawcom who is three years older and hasn’t pitched as well so far as Parry, but has had past success at the AAA level.

Parry was pitching well as a starter for the Orioles’ full-season A team in 2015 when he apparently hurt his arm.  He made only 17 starts in the American Association in 2016 and 2017 combined, put still pitched well enough to work his way up to the Atlantic League.

Several 27 year olds are among the league’s top starter so far and will likely sign with MLB organizations if they keep pitching well, but I won’t both mentioning their names.  Approximately one-third of each Atlantic League’s roster moves up to better professional baseball opportunities over the course of each full season, enough to keep a lot of players playing at an average salary of only $2,100 per month.

Best Hitting Pitchers in MLB Baseball 2018

May 12, 2018

Shohei Ohtani has more or less blown up any discussion of the best hitting pitchers in major league baseball.  He’s created a whole new paradigm for two-way players that hasn’t existed since the 1920’s and the only question is whether he is the start of a new trend or a one-off.

Highly touted prospect Brendan McKay is still on pace to be the next two-way player, although he’s still got a long way to go and his hitting abilities may not be able to keep up with his pitching abilities as he shoots up through the minors.  McKay is already ready for a promotion to A+ ball as a pitcher, and I wouldn’t hold him back to let his hitting catch up.  Still, major league pitchers who can also pinch hit should have value in today’s extreme relief pitching game.

1.  Shohei Ohtani.  I didn’t want to jump on the Ohtani as hitter bandwagon too soon, but I was convinced he’s for real (even if he doesn’t continue to bat .344 and produce over 1.000) when he beat the shift with a double down the left field line about a week ago.  Ohtani has what it takes to be a great major league hitter, although he’ll face his forced adjustments and his hitting performance will be affected by the many games in which he does not bat.  That said, the baby-faced 23 year old phenom can hit.

2.  Madison Bumgarner (.185 career batting average and .555 career OPS).  MadBum is still baseball’s best full-time pitcher hitter, but the bloom is off the rose compared to Ohtani, who will be DHing three times a week until major league baseball pitchers prove they can get him out.  A one-on-one Ohtani-MadBum home run derby at the All-Star Break would be an enormous amount of fun.  Madbum should be healthy by then.

3.  Zack Greinke  (.229 BA, .579 OPS).   One thing I’ve noticed about good hitting pitchers, writing about them as I have for some years now, is that there doesn’t seem to be a particularly strong correlation between a pitcher’s ability to hit and his having spent his minor league time or the vast majority of his MLB career with a National League team, even though this would presumably mean that the pitcher got a lot more opportunities to hit.  After spending his minor league career and his first seven major league seasons with the Royals, Greinke established himself as a fine hitter by his second National League season.

If I had to guess, I would say that the ability to hit the fastball (and lay off breaking pitches) is probably the most important factor in a pitcher’s ability to hit.  Pitchers hate to walk the opposing pitcher, so any time the pitcher-as-hitter is ahead in the count, fastballs for strikes are likely to follow.

The fact that the Diamondbacks are apparently not willing to give Greinke even half a dozen opportunities to pinch hit each season is a missed opportunity.

4.  Yovani Gallardo (.229, .564).  Gallardo’s career as a major league pitcher may be over, but he sure could hit.

5. Adam Wainwright (.199 BA, .529 OPS).  Another player whose major league pitching career is winding down, but with well over 500 career at-bats, Wainwright has well proven his abilities as a hitting pitcher.

6.  Noah Syndergaard (.181 BA, .561 OPS).  A poor start to the 2018 season has brought Syndergaard’s batting average below the Mendoza Line, but he has power and will take a walk.

7.  Daniel Hudson (.226, .567).  Since coming back from an arm injury as a major league relief pitcher, Hudson has had only one plate appearance since 2012, but he could hit.

8.   Mike Leake (.200, .511).  Mike Leake hasn’t had a plate appearance yet this year, as he is now an American League pitcher.  He hit a ton his first three seasons with the Reds, but hasn’t done much with the bat since.

9.  Tyler Chatwood (.214, .485) and Tyson Ross (.199, .476).  As I point out every year, the best hitting major league pitchers get pretty bad pretty fast.

Honorable MentionsCC Sabathia (.212, .539)  CC hasn’t had a hit since 2010, but he could hit when he had the opportunity to bat more than three or four times a season.  Travis Wood (.185, .537).  Wood’s major league career appears over.

Young Hitting Pitchers to Watch.  Michael Lorenzen (.226, .618).  A shoulder injury has prevented Lorenzen from pitching or hitting so far in 2018.  Ty Blach (.194, .505) hit as a rookie in 2017 but is off to a terrible start with the bat in 2018.  Ben Lively (.182, .545) still has to prove he can be a major league starter.

Too Soon for Orioles to Trade Manny Machado?

April 27, 2018

Only 25 games into the 2018 season and the O’s are already 13.5 games back.  Is it too soon for the Orioles to trade Manny Machado to the Yankees for Miguel Andujar and two or three more prospects?

The Red Sox look for real, and the Yankees are currently a strong second.  Andujar at age 23 is a legitimate prospect, but he’s no Manny with the glove at third base, and he’s at the beginning of his major league learning curve as a hitter.

It’s no secret that the Yankees are going to be players for Manny’s free agent services next off-season, and it would obviously make sense to bring him in now so Manny can see if he likes playing in New York during a pennant race.  Equally obvious is the fact that the sooner the Yankees were to trade for Machado, the more he’d be able to help them this season.

It probably comes down to how quickly the O’s are willing to throw in the towel on the 2018 season, and how willing the Yankees are to blow up their chances of staying under the salary cap in order to bring in Manny this year.  The latter is probably the more important factor, because if it isn’t already obvious that the O’s are going nowhere this year, it will be soon enough.  Once that decision is made, then it’s all about maximizing the return for trading Manny.

If the Yankees are willing to take on Manny’s contract, then negotiations should start immediately, even if no final agreement is reached until much closer to the trade deadline.  It’s always struck me as kind of counter-intuitive that player trade values rise as the trade deadline approaches.  Five months of Manny Machado’s performance is obviously worth a hell of a lot more than two months.