Blink and You’ve Missed Them

I got real enjoyment following Jared Koenig‘s recent major league shot with the Oakland A’s. I had noticed Koenig back in 2018 when he had a big season in the fly-by-night Independent-A Pacific Association, truly the bottom of the professional baseball barrel. The start of the Covid pandemic in the early Spring of 2020 killed off the Pacific Association after six seasons of play, apparently for good.

Koenig struck out 140 batters in 96.2 IP for the 2018 San Rafael Pacifics, which earned him a promotion to the Frontier League in 2019, where he struck out 133 batters in 104.1 IP and posted an excellent 2.24 ERA. He continued his terrific 2019 campaign with six well-pitched starts in the winter Australian League.

The Frontier League and the Australian League are still a long, long way from the Majors, but they are at least leagues where someone might take notice if you play as well as Koenig had. The Oakland A’s clearly took notice because they signed him in December 2019 and brought him back in 2021 after the Covid pandemic prevented Koenig from playing in 2020. It certainly did not hurt that Koenig had once been a 35th round draft pick by the Chicago White Sox out of an Arizona JC in 2014, even if he hadn’t pitched well enough subsequently at four-year schools to get drafted again.

Koenig had a strong season at AA Midland in 2021, and started the 2022 season at AAA Las Vegas, a tough place to pitch. In eight starts and nine appearances, Koenig posted a 2.21 ERA and a pitching line of 53 IP, 39 hits, 4 HR and 15 BB allowed and 61 K, earning a shot in the worst-in-the-AL A’s’ starting rotation.

Koenig was not surprisingly overmatched in his first taste of MLB action at age 28. Although the A’s won two of his four starts, Koenig had only one effective start and 6.38 ERA. He did earn a major league victory, which I am certain made all the toil for peanuts Koenig went through to earn that moment worth it in his own mind. His peripheral numbers suggested he needs more time working on his pitching at AAA, and the A’s sent him down on June 26th.

2022 has been a great year for the Pecos League’s business model. The Pecos League is a pay-to-play league where players have to pay to submit an application and then get paid a stipend of $550 for a compressed 11-week season. That’s $50 a week, and not enough to feed a hungry young athlete.

The Pecos League is for undrafted college players not impressive enough to sign contracts with the better and more established Indy-Leagues (the Atlantic League, the American Association and the Frontier). The business models of the best Indy-A leagues still requires each team to fill at least a third (usually more) of their rosters with players with no or only one season of prior professional baseball experience in order to stay below each team’s salary cap amount. Thus, the players in the Pecos League are all guys who just want to give professional baseball a try even if they have to pay to do it.

By my count, at least five players who played in the Pecos League’s first ten seasons from 2011 to 2020 have subsequently made the majors. Jon Edwards (2011) has probably had the most successful pro career of anyone starting his career in the Pecos League. He pitched 49 games in parts of four major league seasons, enough to earn his MLB pension, and then pitched two years in Japan for NPB’s Hanshin Tigers, where my sources say he earned a total of 160,000,000 yen, which amounted to almost $1.5M when Edwards earned it in 2020-2021.

Chris Smith, who pitched all of four games for the Blue Jays in 2017, also pitched in the Pecos League in 2011, after one unsuccessful relief appearance in the Frontier League in 2010.

April 2021 White Sox phenom Yermin Mercedes played in the Pecos League in 2014. Mercedes had played three years in the Dominican Summer League as a Washington Nationals prospect, but failed to stick and used the Pecos League for his age 21 season as a way to get more professional experience and keep himself in the eyes of MLB scouts. It worked, as the Baltimore Orioles signed him to a contract in 2015.

Jared Koenig pitched in the Pecos League in 2017, pitching well enough to earn a five-start look from the American Association’s Salina Stockade later in the summer 2017 season. The best performers in the Pecos League typically get shots from American Association teams as soon the 11-week Pecos League season ends. Most do not stick in the American Association on their first attempts, as the jump in competition is steep, probably the equivalent of jumping from the Dominican Summer League directly to a full-season MLB-system A league. That’s how Koenig ended up pitching in the Pacific Association.

However, Koenig is not the only 2017 Pecos League/Pacific Association pitcher to pitch in the major leagues this year. Logan Gillaspie pitched 10.1 innings in 11 relief appearances for the Orioles this season in May and June before the O’s sent him down to AAA Norfolk on June 18th.

Gillaspie’s 4.35 ERA for the Orioles wasn’t bad, but his peripheral numbers were much less impressive. However, Gillaspie has pitched well in 19.1 AA and AAA innings this year, and, like Koenig, could return to the Show later this year if he can continue to pitch effectively at the AAA level.

Gillaspie was only 20 when he played in the Pecos League, apparently coming out of a JC in Oxnard. Although he also failed to stick in a brief opportunity with the Salina Stockade and finished the season in the Pacific Association, he had the advantage of being younger than most of the players coming out of four-year schools in the Pecos League and received a contract with the Milwaukee Brewers’ organization before the 2018 season began. There is no substitute for tender age when it comes to getting a minor league contract from an MLB organization.

For a league like the Pecos League, having two veterans reach the major leagues in the same season is pure public relations gold. The league can continue to pay its players peanuts for years to come on the proven-not-impossible (but still extremely unlikely) dream that playing in the Pecos could be a stepping stone to the majors.

Other than Koenig and Gillaspie, the only other Pacific Association veteran to reach the majors that I could find is now-former Tampa Bay Ray Chris Mazza. After being released by the Marlins’ organization, Mazza, a Diablo Valley product, was able to turn effective pitching for the San Rafael Pacifics in 2018 into a contract with the Mets’ organization and reached the majors only a year later.

Mazza pitched briefly for the Mets, Red Sox and Rays over the last four major league seasons, but the Rays released him on June 22nd. At age 32, Mazza may have to return to the Indy-A leagues if he wants to keep his professional career going. At least, he has earned his MLB pension with more than a year of credited major league service.

The Pacific Association was only able to attract about half a dozen former major league players in its six years of operation, perhaps most famously Jose Canseco when he was in his early 50’s.

As a final note, the San Rafael Pacifics joined the Pecos League as a franchise for the 2021 season, and the Pecos league also has a franchise in Martinez, California, where I saw my one and only Pacific League game in 2018.

Slugging It Out in Taiwan: The Best Foreign Hitters in CPBL History

This the first revised iteration of a post on the most successful foreign hitters in the history of Taiwan’s CPBL. The CPBL recognizes stats from a rival league, the Taiwan Major League (“TML”), which operated for six years before merging with the CPBL after the 2002 season. However, the CPBL does not publish TML stats and neither does baseball-reference.com.

Nearly all of the best foreign hitters in CPBL history played in the CPBL in its early years between 1990 and 2005, and many of the best foreign players jumped to the TML for more money. This makes it hard for someone like me with no working knowledge of Mandarin Chinese to find the TML stats. I have now revised this post based on Google Translate versions of Taiwanese wikipedia pages.

After about 2010, CPBL teams, following serious contraction in the number of teams, quite reasonably decided that foreign starting pitchers were more valuable to them than position players and relief pitchers, in no small part because it was easier for the foreign pitchers they signed to adjust to CPBL baseball right away than it was for foreign position players to do so.

With the expansion Wei Chuan Dragons starting CPBL major league play in 2021, creating a need for 25% more major league position players, CPBL teams all signed foreign position players for the 2022 season, although none of them has had success so far. The TSG Hawks will start CPBL major league play in 2024, meaning the CPBL will need to find another roster-full of major league position players.

Rob over at CPBL STATS has opined many times that he still thinks it doesn’t make sense for teams to sign foreign position players because pitchers are more of sure thing of proven value. I think it makes sense for CPBL teams to sign position players now, at least to play at the minor league level. I also think teams will have to sign position players when the TSG Hawks start major league play because you can’t add 50% more position players in five years and not have a serious diminution of talent unless you expand the player base beyond domestic Taiwanese position players.

Without further ado, here are my lists.

Batting Average (1,900 At-Bat Minimum)

1. Sandy Guerrero .333 (1,984 At-Bats)
2. Luis Iglesias .318
3. Angel Gonzalez .314 (1,964 At-Bats)
4. Francisco Laureano .306
5. Leo Garcia .300
6. Sil Campusano .290

Panamanian Luis Iglesias and Dominicans Sandy Guerrero, Francisco Laureano, Leo Garcia, Sil Campusano and Angel Gonzalez are the only foreign players to reach my 1,900 career at-bats threshold with certainty. Luis Iglesias had the most productive Taiwanese baseball career of any foreign hitter. He played seven years in the CPBL for the now-defunct Mercuries Tigers and then finished his Taiwanese career with two seasons in the TML. His career batting average in the CPBL of .318 matches his career Taiwan batting average, so it seems clear that the level of play in the TML was roughly equal to the CPBL, thanks mainly to allowing each team to sign a lot more foreign players than CPBL roster limits.

Iglesias had a good year with the bat in the Class A Sally League in 1987 at age 20, but his offensive production dropped in the Class A Florida State League in 1988; and his MLB organization, the Phillies, dropped him. He played for one of the last independent teams in an MLB-system minor league, the Miami Miracle, in 1989 and then signed with the Mercuries Tigers for the CPBL’s inaugural 1990 season at the still young age of 23. He did nothing but hit in the CPBL’s early days, while splitting his time between SS and 3B. His .331 batting average led the league in 1991.

Francisco Laureano, Leo Garcia and Angel Gonzalez played five successful seasons in the CPBL starting in 1992 and then played for two seasons in the TML. Leo Garcia got cups of coffee with the Cincinnati Reds in 1987 and 1988 and was the Reds’ starting AAA centerfielder for seven years before joining the CPBL’s Mercuries Tigers in 1992.

Angel Gonzalez led the CPBL with batting averages of .360 and .354 in 1994 and 1995. Sandy Guerrero played four years in the CPBL followed by two in the TML.

Sil Campusano played briefly for the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies before playing three seasons in the CPBL followed by three seasons in the TML.

Dominican Luis De Los Santos batted .362 across three CPBL seasons from 1994-1996 for the Brother Elephants. His .375 batting average led the league in 1996, and he finished second in batting average in each of 1994 and 1995. His CPBL performance earned De Los Santos an NPB shot in 1997, where he flopped for the Yomiuri Giants; but he returned to Taiwan in 1998, where he led the TML with a .357 batting average. De Los Santos batted .353 over five seasons in Taiwan (634 hits in 1,796 AB). He also played parts of three MLB seasons for the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers before going to Taiwan and had a big year in the KBO at age 34 after he left Taiwan.

Except for De Los Santos, all of these players played up the middle, providing a great deal of value to their Taiwanese teams. De Los Santos could just plain hit.

Home Runs

1. Luis Inglesias 164
2. Sil Campusano 96
3. Luis De Los Santos 88
4. Leo Garcia 77
5. Corey Powell 75
6. George Hinshaw 68
7. Tilson Brito 66
8. Francisco Laureano 65
9. Angel Gonzalez 64
10. Ted Wood 61

Luis Iglesias hit 120 CPBL HR, including a record-setting 31 in 1996, and 44 HR in the TML. He also hit the first Taiwan Series home run, although the Mercuries Tigers lost the game 2-1 to the original Wei Chuan Dragons.

Corey Powell hit 25 HR in each of his three seasons in the TML.

George Hinshaw played briefly for the San Diego Padres and spent a season with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons before starting a four-year CBPL career at age 34 in 1994. He may also have played a season or two in the TML.

Tilson Brito played briefly for the Toronto Blue Jays and the Oakland A’s before having much greater success in South Korea’s KBO and the CPBL. His 33 HR in 2007 set a new CPBL record.

Ted Wood had three cups of coffee with the San Francisco Giants and Montreal Expos before playing three seasons with the Brother Elephants starting in 1997. He led the CPBL with a lusty .373 batting average in 1997. His strong performance got him a shot in the KBO in 2000, where he finished his pro career.

RBIs

1. Luis Iglesias 550
2. Luis De Los Santos 365
3. Sil Campusano 348
4. Francisco Laureano 346
5. Leo Garcia 316
6. Sandy Guerrero 289
7. Angel Gonzalez 272
8. George Hinshaw 246
9. Ted Wood 241
10. Tilson Brito 234

Runs Scored

1. Luis Iglesias 436
2. Sil Campusano 382
3. Frank Laureano 334
4. Leo Garcia 326
5. Sandy Guerrero 308
6. Luis De Los Santos 297
7. Angel Gonzalez 291
8. Ted Wood 207
9. Corey Powell 207

Stolen Bases

1. Bernie Tatis 147
2. Sil Campusano 122
3. Lonnie Goldberg 110
4. Angel Gonzalez 100
5. Leo Garcia 84
6. Cesar Hernandez 82
7. Freddy Tiburcio 68
8. Sandy Guerrero 67

Bernie Tatis played parts of four seasons in the CPBL but only regularly in 1997 and 1998, when he stole 71 and then 65 bases at the ages of 35 and 36. Clearly, he was great at reading pitchers’ moves and getting a good jump.

Lonnie Goldberg played three seasons in the TML after playing in the Independent-A Northeast League.

Cesar Hernandez is another former Cincinnati Reds outfielder. He signed with the Uni-President Lions in 1995 at the still young age of 28 and played four years for the Uni-Lions.

OF Freddy Tiburcio played six seasons for the Brother Elephants starting in 1990. His .318 batting average was second best in the circuit in 1991.

As you can see, Tilson Brito was the only foreign hitter to have much of a CPBL career after 2005, although former Boston Red Sox 3B Wilton Veras did finish 3rd in 2009 with a .360 batting average.

After 2010, foreign hitters nearly disappeared from the CPBL. Jim Negrich in 2014 and 2015 was the last foreign position player to play regularly in the CPBL until 2021, when the expansion Wei Chuan Dragons got their best offensive production from former MLBer Rosell Herrera. However, Herrera missed a lot of games with injuries and didn’t hit with much power, and the Dragons elected not to re-sign him for 2022.

In the early days of the CPBL, many foreign hitters had one or two big seasons. The best was Jay Kirkpatrick‘s 1998 campaign for the Sinon Bulls. He was the CPBL’s first Triple Crown winner, batting .387 with 31 HR and 101 RBIs, a feat not matched until current Nippon Ham Fighter Wang Po-Jung won the Triple Crown in 2017.

Also, in 1998, 37 year old former Houston Astro Ty Gainey finished second in all the Triple Crown categories — .376 batting average, 21 HR and 83 RBI.

Former Milwaukee Brewer Juan Castillo led the CPBL with a .326 batting average in 1992.

3B/OF Melvin Mora had the best MLB career after playing in the CPBL. After becoming a minor league free agent after seven seasons in the Astros’ system and coming off a light-hitting season at AAA in 1997, Mora apparently did not receive a minor league contract offer to his liking, because he ended up signing with the Mercuries Tigers to start the 1998 season. He batted .335 for the Mercuries Tigers in 44 games and was signed by New York Mets in late July, going on to greater MLB success as a Baltimore Oriole.

Given the late in career improvement as a hitter and the era in which Mora played, one must suspect that Vitamin S may have shot his career forward, as it did for the next player. Before going on to hit five MLB HR and 357 NPB HR, Alex Cabrera batted .325 with 18 HR in 1999 for the Chinatrust Whales, Cabrera’s age 27 season.

Former Red Sox and Oriole slugger Sam Horn blasted 31 HR in 1997, setting the all-time TML record.

No article on foreign hitters in the CPBL would be complete without mention of Manny Ramirez‘s half season in 2013 for the EDA Rhinos. The possible future Hall of Famer (PEDs) batted .352 and clubbed eight HR in 49 games before returning for a last shot in AAA baseball. The Rhinos offered to double his monthly salary to $50,000 if he would stay, because he had had a tremendous impact on CBPL attendance. However, Manny was just trying to get some quality professional at-bats to show that he still had something left in the tank at age 41 since his real goal was to return to MLB.

Livan Moinelo Update

If you are not familiar with Livan Moinelo, he’s a Cuban pitcher who is basically NPB’s version of Josh Hader.  30 appearances into the 2020 NPB season, Livan has a 1.55 ERA and 57 K in 29 IP.  That’s a 17.7 K/9IP strikeout rate, for those of you keeping score at home.

Moinelo is 24 years old this season and in his fourth season in NPB.  He has 236 K in 169.2 career NPB IP with the strikeout rate improving each season.

The only knock on Moinelo is he is small, listed at 5’10” and 152 lbs (baseball reference lists him at 6’0″ and 139 lbs, but I suspect NPB’s numbers are more accurate).  In spite of the small size, his fastball hits 95 or 96 mph.  He has a sharp breaking curve, which he can throw as a slurve, breaking across, or more tightly as a 12-6 break that burrows down into the plate.  He also has a screwball type pitch that moves like a dropping change up.  In fact, he already has a lot of different breaking pitches that move at different angles and with different drops.

Like a lot of pitchers who rely heavily on sharp breaking pitches, he allows a fair number of walks. However, his breaking pitch heavy approach makes his fastball very hard to catch up with.

Because Moinelo is two years younger than Hader, my guess is that if Moinelo joined MLB in 2021, his arm is healthy and we have a vaccine for Covid-19, he’d look a lot like Hader in 2018. It’s anyone’s guess, though, how long he can throw as hard as and produce the spin rates he does given how small he did.  Tim Lincecum and Pedro Martinez seem like cautionary tales on how long small hard throwers can last.  Even so, Moinelo has seven more full seasons before he reaches his age 32 season.

The rubs is that Moinelo is pitching in Japan with the permission of the Cuban government.  He hasn’t defected, and he may not be willing to do so for personal or family reasons.

Steve Dalkowski Passes

News on mlbtraderumors.com is that Steve Dalkowski, aged 80, died today of the coronavirus.  Dalkowski is one of the most famous players in baseball history who never reached who never reached the majors.

Dalkowski was a smallish lefthander (5’11”, 175 lbs) who threw incredibly hard but had no idea where it was going.  Many players who played against him said he threw harder than anyone they’d ever faced.

In his first season in a 1957 Class D (rookie) league, he struck 121 batters in 62 innings pitched but also walked an incredible 129.  He was certainly the scariest pitcher many players ever faced because he just might kill you.

Three years later, he both struck out and walked 262 in 170 IP in what was then the Class C California League (an full season A league in today’s game).  He walked 196 and struck out 150 in 103 IP a step up the minor league ladder in 1961.

Dalkowski had his best minor league season in 1962 at age 23 for the Eastern League’s Elmira Pioneers, which played at what we’d call AA level today.  He only went 7-10 but had a 3.04 ERA and, while striking out 192 batters in 160 IP, he walked a modest for him 117 batters.

Earl Weaver, before his great Orioles days, was Dalkowski’s manager in 1962.  He told Dalkowski, a starter, to throw just the fastball and slider and to throw every pitch at the middle of the plate.  Even Weaver said Dalkowski threw harder than Nolan Ryan, and he saw plenty of both.

A 2013 article says, “On a $5 bet, Dalkowski threw a baseball through a wooden fence. On a $10 bet, he threw a ball from the center-field fence over the 40-foot high backstop screen behind home plate.”

The 2013 article says that “Nuke” LaLoosh from Bull Durham was based on Dalkowski, and Kevin Cosner’s “Crash” Davis was based on Dalkowski’s roommate and former SF Giants and  manager Joe Altobelli.  “Alto once quipped, ‘I didn’t room with Dalkowski, I roomed with his suitcase!'” which is an old, old baseball line.

However, Dalkowski’s control really hadn’t improved, it’s likely he blew out his elbow tendon in 1963, and he was a hard drinker, so he was out of organized baseball by the end of the 1965 season at age 26.  Aside from being small, Dalkowski had a compact delivery, but it didn’t improve his ability to throw strikes or diminish from his fastball speed, at least until after the injury when his fastball dropped to 90 mph.

In separate games in his career, Dalkowski struck out 21 and walked 21.  He is said to have thrown a pitch that tore of a batter’s ear, but he didn’t actually hit that many batters, a season high of nine in 170 IP in 1960.  Hitters were “loose” when they got into the box against “White Lightning,” meaning they were every bit ready to get out of the way.

Dalkowski had a hard life after baseball.  He still drank hard, which took his mind prematurely.  It says something about modern medicine that he lived long enough to be felled by the coronavirus.  He was 80 and had lived in a care home in New Britain, Connecticut for many years.

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It’s Good to Be Gerrit Cole Today

With the Nationals re-signing Stephen Strasburg to a seven-year $245 million deal today, I can only say that it’s mighty good to be Gerrit Cole.

Yesterday, the Yankees were floating the idea of making a seven-year $245M offer to Cole, which sounded pretty good.  Yesterday.

Now Cole and his agent Scott Boras are thinking they have a good shot at topping $300M.  After Strasburg’s deal, you’d have to think that eight years at $290M is the least that Cole will get.

What we are seeing with the top starters this off-season strongly suggests that collusion is not going on.  Instead, we seem to be seeing a continuing trend where the top-tier free agents get bigger and bigger deals, while the second-tier free agents get more and more squeezed.

Yesterday, when I read that Madison Bumgarner was seeking a five season nine-figure guarantee, I thought it was a little wishful thinking.  Four years at $90M seemed more likely after Zack Wheeler‘s contract.  Today a nine-figure guarantee for MadBum seems at least as likely as not.

It’s going to be one of the really rich teams that signs Cole, which means that probably 25 teams realize they have no chance to sign him, or 23 if you eliminate the Phillies and Nationals, who won’t be spending $100M on another starter.  The Dodgers are interested in re-signing Hyun-Jin Ryu, and I think it’s likely they will do so, particularly because it seems like Ryu wants to remain a Dodger.  The Strasburg signing means that both the Dodgers and Ryu know the team can’t low-ball him.

Doosan Bears Sign RHP Chris Flexen

The Doosan Bears just signed former New York Mets’ prospect Chris Flexen to a $1M contract, the KBO max for a rookie foreign player.  No word yet on how the contract is structured or how much of the contract is guaranteed, although I would guess that at least $600K is guaranteed.

What is interesting about this deal is Flexen’s tender age — he’ll be 25 next season until July 1st of 2020.  Flexen has great stuff, but his command is lacking, resulting in ugly major league stats to date.  He has pitched well in AAA the last two seasons, although there are reasons to think even at that level his command still needs work.

I think the odds are good that Flexen should be an effective KBO starter in 2020.  The question may be whether he is mentally mature enough to deal with living and working in South Korea.

It’s always extremely difficult to predict which players of Flexen’s age will try their luck in the Asian majors, because most players with Flexen’s past major league experience will elect to stay in the U.S. for their age 25 seasons in the hope that they can establish themselves as major league stars.

In Flexen’s case, a bigger payday in the KBO was obviously a major factor.  Also, it is likely that the Mets’ recent decision to designate Flexen for assignment made the player feel the Mets weren’t necessarily going to give him a fair shot going into the 2020 season.  Flexen is a former 14th round Draft pick, so he’s not a player the Mets necessarily feel they have a lot invested in.

If Flexen can succeed in the KBO, he’s young enough for a return to MLB in one to four seasons.  I’ve also noticed that MLB teams seem to value pitchers returning from the Asian majors, even if the pitcher hasn’t been particularly successful there, at least in terms of offering minor league contracts.  I suspect that MLB organizations think that pitching in Asia can help a player’s development, merely by virtue of playing in a major league even if the level of play is only slightly better than AAA.  Playing in front of larger crowds where the games really mean something and the media attention is far greater can potentially make the transition to the MLB majors easier than coming out of the MLB minors.

Good to See MLB Teams Spending Some Money

The Phillies have reportedly reached a deal with Zack Wheeler that will pay the player $118 over five seasons; and the Braves have inked Cole Hamels to a one-year deal for a cool $18M.

Wheeler’s deal beats mlbtraderumors.com’s prediction by $18M and is good news for the other top-tier free agent pitchers.  Obviously, Stephen Strasburg and Geritt Cole are going to top $118M by a bunch, and it’s likely that Madison Bumgarner will do considerably better than the $72M guarantee mlbtraderumors predicted.  It’s also a big commitment from the Phils for a pitcher who has a reasonable shot of blowing out his elbow tendon a second time in the next five years.

While Hamels’ deal is only for one season, it’s still a big commitment for a player entering his age 36 season, who pitched less than 150 innings in 2019 and failed to reach 150 IP in two of the last three seasons.  Again, this deal can’t hurt other free agent starters going forward.  There are lot of free agent starters still on the market, but they have an advantage over position players in that every team could use at least one more good starter.

In completely unrelated news, the Doosan Bears have agreed to post outfielder Kim Jae-Hwan.  Kim was great from 2016 through 2018, but his .796 OPS was only 30th best in the KBO and he’s going into his age 31 season.  I doubt MLB teams will have much interest, but you never know.

More Asian Comings and Goings

In terms of players moving between MLB and the Asian majors, the biggest news since my last post on the subject is that slugging 1Bman Justin Bour will be playing for the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s NPB in 2020.  No word yet on what Hanshin will be paying him, but it’s likely for a guarantee of over $1 million, given Bour’s major league pedigree.

I don’t think it’s necessarily a great signing by Hanshin.  Bour is entering his age 32 seasons, and players of his talent level and size (he’s listed at 6’4″ and 270 lbs).  His 2018 season was a big step down from 2015-2017, and in 2019 he played his way out of a major league contract for 2020.

Bour also has a big career platoon split, which helped make him a useful major league platoon player, but which doesn’t bode well for Japan, where he will expected to play every day for the money he’s getting.  If Bour can hit NPB right-handers well enough to stick, it may just be a matter of time before we see him getting a day off to “rest” every time Hanshin faces a tough lefty starter.

The Hiroshima Carp have signed South African born Tayler Scott to a deal that pays him a $175K signing bonus and a $525K salary, which may or may not be guaranteed.  Scott has major league stuff, but not major league command — sometimes these kind of pitchers do very well in NPB, where the margin for error is greater than the MLB majors.

Drew VerHagen and Aderlin Rodriguez are two more MLB system products who will be playing in NPB next year.  VerHagen has enjoyed some MLB major league success and should be a good bet to perform well for the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2020.  Aderlin Rodriguez is something of a bargain-basement player for a bargain-basement team, the Orix Buffaloes.

Rumors have it that Pierce Johnson and Joely Rodriguez will be returning to MLB for 2020, at least if they get the contract offers they are hoping for.  IMHO they are both likely to receive major league contract offers.

The SK Wyverns of the KBO will be posting South Korean ace Kwang-hyun Kim.  You may remember that Kim was posted a few years’ back, but failed to reach agreement with the winning bidder, the San Diego Padres, and returned to South Korea.  Kim then promptly tore his elbow tendon and missed a season.

Since then, Kim has firmly re-established himself as one of the KBO’s two best domestic starters, and he wants to give MLB another shot, although he’s already 31 years old.  Reports have it that MLB teams are interested, but we’ll see what kinds of offers he gets or doesn’t get.

New MLB system players who will be plying there trade in the KBO in 2020 are Aaron Altherr, Mike Wright, Adrian Sampson, Dixon Machado and Nick Kingham.  The NC Dinos signed both Altherr and Wright and is giving them the best deals so far for first year foreign KBOers this off-season — both Altherr and Wright will reportedly receive $200K signing bonuses and $800K guaranteed salaries, which is the most they can make under the league’s salary cap.  Nick Kingham will also reportedly receive a $900K guarantee, although $200K of that is for a team option for 2021, most likely also for $900K, so if things go right for Kingham and the SK Wyverns, he’ll earn $1.6M over two seasons.

Meanwhile, the low-budget Kiwoom Heroes re-signed pitcher Eric Jokisch for a second KBO season at a modest $700K max, which includes have-to-earn-’em performance incentives.  No one ever said life was fair.

Is It Worth Tanking to Improve Your MLB Draft Position?

My team, the SF Giants, are currently in line to get either the 13th or 14th pick in the 2020 June Draft.  Gints fans will remember that the team made deals at the trade deadline, but they were kind of push.  The team sold on a couple of relievers, but also made trades designed to help the team going forward in 2019.  The Gints still had an outside shot at making the play-offs at the trade deadline, and they play in a market large enough to make total rebuilds relatively expensive.

Is it worth tanking, at least once the team has realized it has no reasonable chance of making the post-season, in order to get a higher selection in the next MLB draft?

I looked at the first twelve draft picks from the June drafts starting with 1987 (the first year the June draft was the only MLB amateur draft conducted for the year) through 2009 (which is long enough ago that we should now know whether the players drafted were major league success stories).  Suffice it say, with the first 12 draft picks of each June draft, the team imagines it has drafted a future major league star in compensation for sucking ass the previous season.

In order to keep things simple, I used baseball reference’s career WAR totals to determine whether each drafted player was a major league success.  Not precise, I’ll admit, since what drafting teams really care about is the first six-plus major league seasons of control.  However, I don’t know how to create a computer program to figure out the years-of-control WAR for each drafted player, and I’m not sure I’d be willing to spend the time to do so even if I knew how.  Career WAR seems a close enough approximation.

Also, for purposes of my study, no player is considered to have lower than a 0 career WAR — you cannot convince me that a drafted player who never reaches the majors is worth more than a drafted player who played in the majors but had a negative career WAR.  A player reaches and plays in the majors 9 times out of 10 because he is the best player available at that moment to take the available roster spot.  The tenth time, he is worth trying to develop as a major league player because of his potential upside.

As a result, I did not bother with averages.  Instead, I looked at median performances (i.e., for the 23 players picked at each of the first 12 draft slots during the relevant period, 11 players had a higher career WAR and 11 players had a lower career WAR than the median player.

Also, if a player was drafted more than once in the top 12, because he didn’t sign the first time drafted, I still counted him as his career WAR for each time he was drafted.

Here we go:

1st Overall Pick.  Median player:  Ben McDonald (1989, 20.8 Career WAR).  Best Players drafted with the No. 1 pick: Alex Rodriguez (1993, 117.8 career WAR); Chipper Jones (1990, 85.3 WAR); Ken Griffey, Jr. (1987, 83.8 WAR).  Odds of drafting a 15+ WAR player = 61%.  [Examples of 15+ WAR players are Mike Lieberthal (15.3 WAR); Gavin Floyd (15.6 WAR); Eric Hosmer (15.7+ WAR); and Phil Nevin (15.9 WAR).]  Odds of drafting a 10+ WAR player = 65%.  [Examples of 10+ WAR players are Rocco Baldelli (10.2 WAR); Shawn Estes (10.4 WAR); Todd Walker (10.5 WAR)  ; and Doug Glanville (10.9 WAR).]  Odds of drafting a 5+ WAR player = 70%.  [Examples of 5+ WAR players are John Patterson (5.0 WAR); Mike Pelfrey (5.3 WAR); Billy Koch (5.4 WAR); and Sean Burroughs (5.5 WAR).]

2nd Overall Pick.  Median player: Dustin Ackley (2009, 8.1 WAR).  Best Players drafted with the No. 2 pick: Justin Verlander (2004, 70.8+ WAR); J.D. Drew (1997, 44.9 WAR).  Odds of drafting a 15+ WAR player = 35%.  Odds of drafting a 10+ WAR player = 43%.  Odds of drafting a 5+ WAR player = 70%.

3rd Overall Pick.  Median player:  Philip Humber (2004, 0.9 WAR).  Best Players drafted at No. 3: Evan Longoria (2006, 54.2+ WAR); Troy Glaus (1997, 38.0 WAR).  15+ WAR player = 22%.  10+ WAR player = 35%.  5+ WAR player = 43%.

4th Overall Pick.  Median player: Tim Stauffer (2003, 3.8 WAR).  Best Players drafted at No. 4: Ryan Zimmerman (2005, 37.7+ WAR); Alex Fernandez (1990, 28.4 WAR).  15+ WAR player = 17%.  10+ WAR player = 26%.  5+ WAR player = 39%.

5th Overall Pick.  Median player: zero value.  Best players drafted at No. 5: Mark Teixeira (2001, 51.8 WAR); Ryan Braun (2005, 47.7+ WAR).  15+ WAR player = 30%.  10+ WAR player = 35%.  5+ WAR player = 39%.

6th Overall Pick.  Median player: zero value.  Best players drafted at No. 6: Derek Jeter (1992, 72.6 WAR); Zack Greinke (2002, 71.3+ WAR).  15+ WAR player = 9%.  10+ WAR player = 13%.  5+ WAR player = 26%.

7th Overall Pick.  Median player: Calvin Murray (1992, 2.1 WAR).  Best players drafted at No. 7: Frank Thomas (1989, 73.9 WAR); Clayton Kershaw (2006, 67.6+ WAR).  15+ WAR player = 30%.  10+ WAR player = 39%.  5+ WAR player = 48%.

8th Overall Pick.  Median player: zero value.  Best players drafted at No. 8: Todd Helton (1995, 61.2 WAR); Jim Abbott (1988, 19.6 WAR).  15+ WAR player = 13%.  10+ WAR player = 26%.  5+ WAR player = 39%.

9th Overall Pick.  Median player: Aaron Crow (2008, 2.6 WAR).  Best players drafted at No. 9:  Kevin Appier (1987, 54.5 WAR); Barry Zito (1999, 31.9 WAR).  15+ WAR player = 26%.  10+ WAR player = 26%.  5+ WAR player = 48%.

10th Overall Pick.  Median player: Michael Tucker (1992, 8.1 WAR).  Best players drafted at No. 10: Robin Ventura (1988, 56.1 WAR); Eric Chavez (1996, 37.5 WAR).  15+ WAR player = 39%.  10+ WAR player = 48%.  5+ WAR player = 52%.

11th Overall Pick.  Median player: Lee Tinsley (1987, 1.7 WAR).  Best players drafted at No. 11: Max Scherzer (2006, 60.5+ WAR); Andrew McCutchen (2005, 43.6+ WAR).  15+ WAR player = 13%.  10+ WAR player = 17%.  5+ WAR player = 22%.

12th Overall Pick.  Median player: Bobby Seay (1996, 3.0 WAR).  Best players drafted at No. 12: Nomar Garciaparra (1994, 44.2 WAR); Jared Weaver (2004, 34.4 WAR).  15+ WAR player = 26%.  10+ WAR player = 39%.  5+ WAR player = 48%.

What do I conclude from all of the above number-crunching and name-dropping (and my cursory review of the Nos. 13-15 draft picks during the relevant period)?  It’s worth tanking to get the first or second pick in the June Draft or to get one of the top ten picks.  Since teams bad enough at the trade deadline to have a reasonable shot to get the No. 1 or 2 picks will be tanking no matter what, the only real lesson is that teams that have the 11th to 15th worst record in MLB approaching the trade deadline and realize they have no reasonable shot to make the post-season should SELL, SELL, SELL in order to get one of the top ten draft picks the next June.

The second lesson I take from my study is that teams should ALWAYS draft the player they think to be the best available/remaining if they have a top 12 or 15 draft pick and PAY what it takes to sign the player, unless the potential draftee has made it clear he will not sign with the team under any circumstances.  After the two best players in any given draft, there is too much uncertainty for teams not to draft the player they think is the best available.  Drafting a player the team thinks is a lesser player in order to save $2 million to throw at a high school player drafted in the 11th round is going to be a bad decision in most cases, particularly in the current regime where teams get a finite budget to sign their first ten draft picks, and the draftees know the cap amounts.

I see no obvious difference in the results for the third through tenth rounds, because, I assume, after the first two consensus best players in any given draft, teams have different opinions about the merits of the next, larger group of potential draftees, to the point where it more or less becomes a crap shoot.  After the first two rounds, and with the notable exception of the 10th round, the median player drafted with the third through 12th pick isn’t really worth a damn, and the odds of selecting a 15+ WAR player, a true star, are considerably less than one in three.

As a final note, I don’t like the fact that post-trade-deadline waiver deals can no longer be made.  I don’t see the downside in allowing losing teams to dump their over-paid veterans after the trade deadline (but before the Sept. 1st play-off eligibility deadline) in exchange for some, usually limited, salary relief and prospects, while play-off bound teams get to add veterans so they can put the best possible team on the field come play-off time.  I hope MLB can find a way for these deals to resume in the future.

Tyler Rogers Finally Gets His Shot

The Giants announced today that they have released Scooter Gennett — they’d have been better off just holding onto Joe Panik — and will call up submarining right hander Tyler Rogers to take his place.  I advocated in 2017 and 2018 for Rogers to get his major league shot, but the irony is that he doesn’t really deserve it this year.

After posting ERAs of 2.37 and 2.13 and allowing only six HRs in 143.2 IP in the hit- and homer-happy Pacific Coast League, Rogers hasn’t pitched well at AAA Sacramento this season.  His 4.21 ERA is unimpressive, he had command issues early in the season, and he’s allowed six home runs in 62 IP this year.  He’s pitched well of late, or at least I think so, since MiLB.com no longer publishes his last 10 PCL games since he’s just been promoted to the Show.

Low side-arm/under arm pitchers are rare, and as a result they can be effective major league pitchers in part because hitters aren’t familiar with them.  They can be very good at preventing the home run ball, but they need good infield defense behind them to stop hard hit ground balls and turn double plays.

Rogers has allowed a total of only 19 HRs in 478.2 minor league innings pitched, which is terrific.  We’ll see if he can prevent home runs by major league hitters.  Rogers needs to command his pitches if he’s going to be successful at the major league level.  Again, we’ll soon see how well he can do it.

Rogers is 28 this season, so an awful lot is riding on his ability to make a good impression right away now that he finally has the opportunity.  I’m rooting for him, but it remains to be seen if he what it takes to be a successful major leaguer.  At least, he’s finally getting an opportunity to show what he can do.